Objectives. The Kaplan-Meier estimation is widely used in orthopedics to calculate the probability of revision surgery. Using data from a long-term follow-up study, we aimed to assess the amount of bias introduced by the Kaplan-Meier estimator in a competing risk setting. Methods. We describe both the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the competing risk model, and explain why the competing risk model is a more appropriate approach to estimate the probability of revision surgery when patients die in a hip revision surgery cohort. In our study, a total of 62 acetabular revisions were performed. After a mean of 25 years, no patients were lost to follow-up, 13 patients had undergone revision surgery and 33 patients died of causes unrelated to their hip. Results. The Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates the probability of revision surgery in our example by 3%, 11%, 28%, 32% and 60% at five, ten, 15, 20 and 25 years, respectively. As the cumulative incidence of the competing event increases over time, as does the amount of bias. Conclusions. Ignoring competing risks leads to biased estimations of the probability of revision surgery. In order to guide choosing the appropriate statistical analysis in future clinical studies, we propose a flowchart

Aims. Iliopsoas impingement occurs in 4% to 30% of patients after undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a relatively high incidence, there are few attempts at modelling impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component, and no attempts at modelling this in a representative cohort of subjects. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel computational model for quantifying the impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component and validate its utility in a case-controlled investigation. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent THA surgery that included 23 symptomatic patients diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis, and 23 patients not diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis. All patients received postoperative CT imaging, postoperative standing radiography, and had minimum six months’ follow-up. 3D models of each patient’s prosthetic and bony anatomy were generated, landmarked, and simulated in a novel iliopsoas impingement detection model in supine and standing pelvic positions. Logistic regression models were implemented to determine if the probability of pain could be significantly predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the model’s sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). Results. Highly significant differences between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts were observed for iliopsoas impingement. Logistic regression models determined that the impingement values significantly predicted the probability of groin pain. The simulation had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 100%, and an AUC of 0.86. Conclusion. We developed a computational model that can quantify iliopsoas impingement and verified its accuracy in a case-controlled investigation. This tool has the potential to be used preoperatively, to guide decisions about optimal cup placement, and postoperatively, to assist in the diagnosis of iliopsoas tendonitis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(1):3–12

Aims. The aim of this trial was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a soft bandage and immediate discharge, compared with rigid immobilization, in children aged four to 15 years with a torus fracture of the distal radius. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, as well as a broader societal point of view. Health resources and quality of life (the youth version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-Y)) data were collected, as part of the Forearm Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) multicentre randomized controlled trial over a six-week period, using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Costs and health gains (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were estimated for the two trial treatment groups. Regression was used to estimate the probability of the new treatment being cost-effective at a range of ‘willingness-to-pay’ thresholds, which reflect a range of costs per QALY at which governments are typically prepared to reimburse for treatment. Results. The offer of a soft bandage significantly reduced cost per patient (saving £12.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£5.30 to £19.80)) while QALYs were similar (QALY difference between groups: 0.0013 (95% CI -0.0004 to 0.003)). The high probability (95%) that offering a bandage is a cost-effective option was consistent when examining the data in a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. In addition to the known clinical equivalence, this study found that the offer of a bandage reduced cost compared with rigid immobilization among children with a torus fracture of the distal radius. While the cost saving was small for each patient, the high frequency of these injuries indicates a significant saving across the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):623–630

Aims. To compare the cost-utility of removable brace compared with cast in the management of adult patients with ankle fracture. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation conducted from the UK NHS and personnel social services (PSS) perspective. Health resources and quality-of-life data were collected as part of the Ankle Injury Rehabilitation (AIR) multicentre, randomized controlled trial over a 12-month period using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility analysis was estimated in terms of the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Estimate uncertainty was explored by bootstrapping, visualized on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio plane. Net monetary benefit and probability of cost-effectiveness were evaluated at a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds and visualized graphically. Results. The incremental cost and QALYs of using brace over a 12-month period were £46.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) £-9 to £147) and 0.0141 (95% CI -0.005 to 0.033), respectively. The cost per QALY gained was £3,318. The probability of brace being cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold was 88%. The results remained robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This within-trial economic evaluation found that it is probable that using a removable brace provides good value to the NHS when compared to cast, in the management of adults with ankle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):455–462

Aims. This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model. Methods. The study included 538 joints that underwent primary THA. The patients were divided into groups using unsupervised time series clustering for five-year BMD loss of Gruen zone 7 postoperatively, and a machine-learning model to predict the BMD loss was developed. Additionally, the predictor for BMD loss was extracted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate, which is the most important categorical predictor for BMD loss, was examined by calculating the change in predictive probability when hypothetically switching between the inclusion and exclusion of bisphosphonate. Results. Time series clustering allowed us to divide the patients into two groups, and the predictive factors were identified including patient- and operation-related factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the BMD loss prediction averaged 0.734. Virtual administration of bisphosphonate showed on average 14% efficacy in preventing BMD loss of zone 7. Additionally, stem types and preoperative triglyceride (TG), creatinine (Cr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and creatine kinase (CK) showed significant association with the estimated patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate. Conclusion. Periprosthetic BMD loss after THA is predictable based on patient- and operation-related factors, and optimal prescription of bisphosphonate based on the prediction may prevent BMD loss. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(4):184–192

Tennis elbow (lateral epicondylitis or lateral elbow tendinopathy) is a self-limiting condition in most patients. Surgery is often offered to patients who fail to improve with conservative treatment. However, there is no evidence to support the superiority of surgery over continued nonoperative care or no treatment. New evidence also suggests that the prognosis of tennis elbow is not influenced by the duration of symptoms, and that there is a 50% probability of recovery every three to four months. This finding challenges the belief that failed nonoperative care is an indication for surgery. In this annotation, we discuss the clinical and research implications of the benign clinical course of tennis elbow. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):109–111

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with surgical reconstruction compared to rehabilitation for long-standing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in the NHS, and to estimate its cost-effectiveness. Methods. A total of 316 patients were recruited and randomly assigned to either surgical reconstruction or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment). Healthcare resource use and health-related quality of life data (EuroQol five-dimension five-level health questionnaire) were collected in the trial at six, 12, and 18 months using self-reported questionnaires and medical records. Using intention-to-treat analysis, differences in costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between treatment arms were estimated adjusting for baseline differences and following multiple imputation of missing data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs between reconstruction and rehabilitation. Results. At 18 months, patients in the surgical reconstruction arm reported higher QALYs (0.052 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.012 to 0.117); p = 0.177) and higher NHS costs (£1,017 (95% CI 557 to 1,476); p < 0.001) compared to rehabilitation. This resulted in an ICER of £19,346 per QALY with the probability of surgical reconstruction being cost-effective of 51% and 72% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY, respectively. Conclusion. Surgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with long-standing ACL injury is more effective, but more expensive, at 18 months compared to rehabilitation management. In the UK setting, surgical reconstruction is cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):38–45

Aims. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a common procedure to address pain and enhance function in hip disorders such as osteoarthritis. Despite its success, postoperative patient recovery exhibits considerable heterogeneity. This study aimed to investigate whether patients follow distinct pain trajectories following THA and identify the patient characteristics linked to suboptimal trajectories. Methods. This retrospective cohort study analyzed THA patients at a large academic centre (NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, USA) from January 2018 to January 2023, who completed the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) pain intensity questionnaires, collected preoperatively at one-, three-, six-, 12-, and 24-month follow-up times. Growth mixture modelling (GMM) was used to model the trajectories. Optimal model fit was determined by Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin likelihood ratio test (VLMR-LRT), posterior probabilities, and entropy values. Association between trajectory groups and patient characteristics were measured by multinomial logistic regression using the three-step approach. Results. Among the 1,249 patients, a piecewise GMM model revealed three distinct pain trajectory groups: 56 patients (4.5%) in group 1; 1,144 patients (91.6%) in group 2; and 49 patients (3.9%) in group 3. Patients in group 2 experienced swift recovery post-THA and minimal preoperative pain. In contrast, groups 1 and 3 initiated with pronounced preoperative pain; however, only group 3 exhibited persistent long-term pain. Multinomial regression indicated African Americans were exceedingly likely to follow trajectory groups 1 (odds ratio (OR) 2.73) and 3 (OR 3.18). Additionally, odds of membership to group 3 increased by 12% for each BMI unit rise, by 19% for each added postoperative day, and by over four if discharged to rehabilitation services (OR 4.07). Conclusion. This study identified three distinct pain trajectories following THA, highlighting the role of individual patient factors in postoperative recovery. This emphasizes the importance of preoperatively addressing modifiable risk factors associated with suboptimal pain trajectories, particularly in at-risk patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):174–183

Aims. The primary objective of this registry-based study was to compare patient-reported outcomes of cementless and cemented medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) during the first postoperative year. The secondary objective was to assess one- and three-year implant survival of both fixation techniques. Methods. We analyzed 10,862 cementless and 7,917 cemented UKA cases enrolled in the Dutch Arthroplasty Registry, operated between 2017 and 2021. Pre- to postoperative change in outcomes at six and 12 months’ follow-up were compared using mixed model analyses. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were applied to quantify differences in implant survival. Adjustments were made for patient-specific variables and annual hospital volume. Results. Change from baseline in the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and activity-related pain was comparable between groups. Adjustment for covariates demonstrated a minimally greater decrease in rest-related pain in the cemented group (β = -0.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.16 to -0.01)). Cementless fixation was associated with a higher probability of achieving an excellent OKS outcome (> 41 points) (adjusted odds ratio 1.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.3)). The likelihood of one-year implant survival was greater for cemented implants (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.35 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.71)), with higher revision rates for periprosthetic fractures of cementless implants. During two to three years’ follow-up, the likelihood of implant survival was non-significantly greater for cementless UKA (adjusted HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.04)), primarily due to increased revision rates for tibial loosening of cemented implants. Conclusion. Cementless and cemented medial UKA led to comparable improvement in physical function and pain reduction during the initial postoperative year, albeit with a greater likelihood of achieving excellent OKS outcomes after cementless UKA. Anticipated differences in early physical function and pain should not be a decisive factor in the choice of fixation technique. However, surgeons should consider the differences in short- and long-term implant survival when deciding which implant to use. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(5):401–410

Aims. This study aims to evaluate the impact of metabolic syndrome in the setting of obesity on in-hospital outcomes and resource use after total joint replacement (TJR). Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted using the National Inpatient Sample from 2006 to the third quarter of 2015. Discharges representing patients aged 40 years and older with obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m. 2. ) who underwent primary TJR were included. Patients were stratified into two groups with and without metabolic syndrome. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method was used to balance covariates. Results. The obese cohort with metabolic syndrome was significantly older, more likely to be female, had higher rates of Medicare insurance, and more likely to be non-Hispanic Black than the obese cohort without metabolic syndrome. In the unweighted analysis, patients with obesity and metabolic syndrome were more likely to experience cardiac, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, and postoperative anemia complications, had a longer length of stay, and were less likely to be discharged home compared to obese patients without metabolic syndrome. After adjusting for covariates using IPTW, patients with obesity and metabolic syndrome were more likely to experience postoperative anemia complications only and had lower rates of home discharge, but there were no significant differences in any other complication variables or length of stay. Conclusion. Given the variability of metabolic health in obesity, the development of tailored perioperative protocols and recommendations acknowledging this variability in metabolic health in obese patients would ultimately potentially benefit patients and improve outcomes of TJR. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):837–843

Aims. To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of adalimumab compared with standard care alone for the treatment of early-stage Dupuytren’s disease (DD) and the value of further research from an NHS perspective. Methods. We used data from the Repurposing anti-TNF for Dupuytren’s disease (RIDD) randomized controlled trial of intranodular adalimumab injections in patients with early-stage progressive DD. RIDD found that intranodular adalimumab injections reduced nodule hardness and size in patients with early-stage DD, indicating the potential to control disease progression. A within-trial cost-utility analysis compared four adalimumab injections with no further treatment against standard care alone, taking a 12-month time horizon and using prospective data on EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and resource use from the RIDD trial. We also developed a patient-level simulation model similar to a Markov model to extrapolate trial outcomes over a lifetime using data from the RIDD trial and a literature review. This also evaluated repeated courses of adalimumab each time the nodule reactivated (every three years) in patients who initially responded. Results. The within-trial economic evaluation found that adalimumab plus standard care cost £503,410 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained versus standard care alone over a 12-month time horizon. The model-based extrapolation suggested that, over a lifetime, repeated courses of adalimumab could cost £14,593 (95% confidence interval £7,534 to £42,698) per QALY gained versus standard care alone. If the NHS was willing to pay £20,000/QALY gained, there is a 77% probability that adalimumab with retreatment is the best value for money. Conclusion. Repeated courses of adalimumab are likely to be a cost-effective treatment for progressive early-stage DD. The value of perfect parameter information that would eliminate all uncertainty around the parameters estimated in RIDD and the duration of quiescence was estimated to be £105 per patient or £272 million for all 2,584,411 prevalent cases in the UK. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):898–906

Aims. The aim of this study to compare 30-day survival and recovery of mobility between patients mobilized early (on the day of, or day after surgery for a hip fracture) and patients mobilized late (two days or more after surgery), and to determine whether the presence of dementia influences the association between the timing of mobilization, 30-day survival, and recovery. Methods. Analysis of the National Hip Fracture Database and hospital records for 126,897 patients aged ≥ 60 years who underwent surgery for a hip fracture in England and Wales between 2014 and 2016. Using logistic regression, we adjusted for covariates with a propensity score to estimate the association between the timing of mobilization, survival, and recovery of walking ability. Results. A total of 99,667 patients (79%) mobilized early. Among those mobilized early compared to those mobilized late, the weighted odds ratio of survival was 1.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.05), of recovering outdoor ambulation was 1.25 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.51), and of recovering indoor ambulation was 1.53 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.78) by 30 days. The weighted probabilities of survival at 30 days post-admission were 95.9% (95% CI 95.7% to 96.0%) for those who mobilized early and 92.4% (95% CI 92.0% to 92.8%) for those who mobilized late. The weighted probabilities of regaining the ability to walk outdoors were 9.7% (95% CI 9.2% to 10.2%) and indoors 81.2% (95% CI 80.0% to 82.4%), for those who mobilized early, and 7.9% (95% CI 6.6% to 9.2%) and 73.8% (95% CI 71.3% to 76.2%), respectively, for those who mobilized late. Patients with dementia were less likely to mobilize early despite observed associations with survival and ambulation recovery for those with and without dementia. Conclusion. Early mobilization is associated with survival and recovery for patients (with and without dementia) after hip fracture. Early mobilization should be incorporated as a measured indicator of quality. Reasons for failure to mobilize early should also be recorded to inform quality improvement initiatives. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1317–1324

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. To evaluate the impact of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) on the odds of having deep infections and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following open fractures. Methods. Patients from the Fluid Lavage in Open Fracture Wounds (FLOW) trial with Gustilo-Anderson grade II or III open fractures within the lower limb were included in this secondary analysis. Using mixed effects logistic regression, we assessed the impact of NPWT on deep wound infection requiring surgical intervention within 12 months post-injury. Using multilevel model analyses, we evaluated the impact of NPWT on the Physical Component Summary (PCS) of the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) at 12 months post-injury. Results. After applying inverse probability treatment weighting to adjust for the influence of injury characteristics on type of dressing used, 1,322 participants were assessed. The odds of developing a deep infection requiring operative management within 12 months of initial surgery was 4.52-times higher in patients who received NPWT compared to those who received a standard wound dressing (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.84 to 11.12; p = 0.001). Overall, 1,040 participants were included in our HRQoL analysis, and those treated with NPWT had statistically significantly lower mean SF-12 PCS post-fracture (p < 0.001). These differences did not reach the minimally important difference for the SF-12 PCS. Conclusion. Our analysis found that patients treated with NPWT had higher odds of developing a deep infection requiring operative management within 12 months post-fracture. Due to possible residual confounding with the worst cases being treated with NPWT, we are unable to determine if NPWT has a negative effect or is simply a marker of worse injuries or poor access to early soft-tissue coverage. Regardless, our results suggest that the use of this treatment requires further evaluation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):189–195

Aims. The principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM) are the foundation of modern medical practice. Surgeons are familiar with the commonly used statistical techniques to test hypotheses, summarize findings, and provide answers within a specified range of probability. Based on this knowledge, they are able to critically evaluate research before deciding whether or not to adopt the findings into practice. Recently, there has been an increased use of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze information and derive findings in orthopaedic research. These techniques use a set of statistical tools that are increasingly complex and may be unfamiliar to the orthopaedic surgeon. It is unclear if this shift towards less familiar techniques is widely accepted in the orthopaedic community. This study aimed to provide an exploration of understanding and acceptance of AI use in research among orthopaedic surgeons. Methods. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were carried out on a sample of 12 orthopaedic surgeons. Inductive thematic analysis was used to identify key themes. Results. The four intersecting themes identified were: 1) validity in traditional research, 2) confusion around the definition of AI, 3) an inability to validate AI research, and 4) cautious optimism about AI research. Underpinning these themes is the notion of a validity heuristic that is strongly rooted in traditional research teaching and embedded in medical and surgical training. Conclusion. Research involving AI sometimes challenges the accepted traditional evidence-based framework. This can give rise to confusion among orthopaedic surgeons, who may be unable to confidently validate findings. In our study, the impact of this was mediated by cautious optimism based on an ingrained validity heuristic that orthopaedic surgeons develop through their medical training. Adding to this, the integration of AI into everyday life works to reduce suspicion and aid acceptance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):696–703

Aims. Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an autosomal recessive inherited condition that presents with a number of clinical manifestations that include musculoskeletal manifestations (MM). MM may present differently in different individuals and settings and the predictors are not well known. Herein, we aimed at determining the predictors of MM in patients with SCD at the University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia. Methods. An unmatched case-control study was conducted between January and May 2019 in children below the age of 16 years. In all, 57 cases and 114 controls were obtained by systematic sampling method. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. The different MM were identified, staged, and classified according to the Standard Orthopaedic Classification Systems using radiological and laboratory investigations. The data was entered in Epidata version 3.1 and exported to STATA 15 for analysis. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine predictors and predictive margins were used to determine the probability of MM. Results. The cases were older median age 9.5 (interquartile range (IQR) 7 to 12) years compared to controls 7 (IQR 4 to 11) years; p = 0.003. After multivariate logistic regression, increase in age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.45; p = 0.043), increase in the frequency of vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC) (AOR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; p = 0.009) and increase in percentage of haemoglobin S (HbS) (AOR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.29; p < 0.001) were significant predictors of MM. Predictive margins showed that for a 16-year-old the average probability of having MM would be 51 percentage points higher than that of a two-year-old. Conclusion. Increase in age, frequency of VOC, and an increase in the percentage of HbS were significant predictors of MM. These predictors maybe useful to clinicians in determining children who are at risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:175–181

Aims. A pragmatic multicentre randomized controlled trial, UK FROzen Shoulder Trial (UK FROST), was conducted in the UK NHS comparing the cost-effectiveness of commonly used treatments for adults with primary frozen shoulder in secondary care. Methods. A cost utility analysis from the NHS perspective was performed. Differences between manipulation under anaesthesia (MUA), arthroscopic capsular release (ACR), and early structured physiotherapy plus steroid injection (ESP) in costs (2018 GBP price base) and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at one year were used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the treatments using regression methods. Results. ACR was £1,734 more costly than ESP ((95% confidence intervals (CIs) £1,529 to £1,938)) and £1,457 more costly than MUA (95% CI £1,283 to £1,632). MUA was £276 (95% CI £66 to £487) more expensive than ESP. Overall, ACR had worse QALYs compared with MUA (-0.0293; 95% CI -0.0616 to 0.0030) and MUA had better QALYs compared with ESP (0.0396; 95% CI -0.0008 to 0.0800). At a £20,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, MUA had the highest probability of being cost-effective (0.8632) then ESP (0.1366) and ACR (0.0002). The results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. While ESP was less costly, MUA was the most cost-effective option. ACR was not cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):685–695

Aims. The aims of this study were to compare the use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with subacromial decompression, arthroscopy only (placebo surgery), and no treatment for subacromial pain in the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS), and to estimate their cost-effectiveness. Patients and Methods. The use of resources, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were assessed in the trial at six months and one year. Results were extrapolated to two years after randomization. Differences between treatment arms, based on the intention-to-treat principle, were adjusted for covariates and missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated, with uncertainty around the values estimated using bootstrapping. Results. Cumulative mean QALYs/mean costs of health care service use and surgery per patient from baseline to 12 months were estimated as 0.640 (standard error (. se. ) 0.024)/£3147 (. se. 166) in the decompression arm, 0.656 (. se. 0.020)/£2830 (. se. 183) in the arthroscopy only arm and 0.522 (. se. 0.029)/£1451 (. se. 151) in the no treatment arm. Statistically significant differences in cumulative QALYs and costs were found at six and 12 months for the decompression versus no treatment comparison only. The probabilities of decompression being cost-effective compared with no treatment at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY were close to 0% at six months and approximately 50% at one year, with this probability potentially increasing for the extrapolation to two years. Discussion. The evidence for cost-effectiveness at 12 months was inconclusive. Decompression could be cost-effective in the longer-term, but results of this analysis are sensitive to the assumptions made about how costs and QALYs are extrapolated beyond the follow-up of the trial

Objectives. Alarm over the reported high failure rates for metal-on-metal (MoM) hip implants as well as their potential for locally aggressive Adverse Reactions to Metal Debris (ARMDs) has prompted government agencies, internationally, to recommend the monitoring of patients with MoM hip implants. Some have advised that a blood ion level >7 µg/L indicates potential for ARMDs. We report a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of metal ion testing for ARMDs. Methods. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify articles from which it was possible to reconstruct a 2 × 2 table. Two readers independently reviewed all articles and extracted data using explicit criteria. We computed a summary receiver operating curve using a Bayesian random-effects hierarchical model. Results. Our literature search returned 575 unique articles; only six met inclusion criteria defined a priori. The discriminative capacity of ion tests was homogeneous across studies but that there was substantial cut-point heterogeneity. Our best estimate of the “true” area under curve (AUC) for metal ion testing is 0.615, with a 95% credible interval of 0.480 to 0.735, thus we can state that the probability that metal ion testing is actually clinically useful with an AUC ≥ 0.75 is 1.7%. Conclusion. Metal ion levels are not useful as a screening test for identifying high risk patients because ion testing will either lead to a large burden of false positive patients, or otherwise marginally modify the pre-test probability. With the availability of more accurate non-invasive tests, we did not find any evidence for using blood ion levels to diagnose symptomatic patients. Cite this article: M. Pahuta, J. M. Smolders, J. L. van Susante, J. Peck, P. R. Kim, P. E. Beaule. Blood metal ion levels are not a useful test for adverse reactions to metal debris: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:379–386. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.59.BJR-2016-0027.R1

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In this study, we aimed to visualize the spatial distribution characteristics of femoral head necrosis using a novel measurement method.

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To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials.

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe variation in hip fracture treatment in Norway expressed as adherence to international and national evidence-based treatment guidelines, to study factors influencing deviation from guidelines, and to analyze consequences of non-adherence. Methods. International and national guidelines were identified and treatment recommendations extracted. All 43 hospitals routinely treating hip fractures in Norway were characterized. From the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register (NHFR), hip fracture patients aged > 65 years and operated in the period January 2014 to December 2018 for fractures with conclusive treatment guidelines were included (n = 29,613: femoral neck fractures (n = 21,325), stable trochanteric fractures (n = 5,546), inter- and subtrochanteric fractures (n = 2,742)). Adherence to treatment recommendations and a composite indicator of best practice were analyzed. Patient survival and reoperations were evaluated for each recommendation. Results. Median age of the patients was 84 (IQR 77 to 89) years and 69% (20,427/29,613) were women. Overall, 79% (23,390/29,613) were treated within 48 hours, and 80% (23,635/29,613) by a surgeon with more than three years’ experience. Adherence to guidelines varied substantially but was markedly better in 2018 than in 2014. Having a dedicated hip fracture unit (OR 1.06, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.11) and a hospital hip fracture programme (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.27) increased the probability of treatment according to best practice. Surgery after 48 hours increased one-year mortality significantly (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.22; p = 0.001). Alternative treatment to arthroplasty for displaced femoral neck fractures (FNFs) increased mortality after 30 days (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.62)) and one year (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.72), and also increased the number of reoperations (OR 4.61, 95% CI 3.73 to 5.71). An uncemented stem increased the risk of reoperation significantly (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.48; p = 0.030). Conclusion. Our study demonstrates a substantial variation between hospitals in adherence to evidence-based guidelines for treatment of hip fractures in Norway. Non-adherence can be ascribed to in-hospital factors. Poor adherence has significant negative consequences for patients in the form of increased mortality rates at 30 and 365 days post-treatment and in reoperation rates. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-10:644–653

Aims

In-hospital length of stay (LOS) and discharge dispositions following arthroplasty could act as surrogate measures for improvement in patient pathways, and have major cost saving implications for healthcare providers. With the ever-growing adoption of robotic technology in arthroplasty, it is imperative to evaluate its impact on LOS. The objectives of this study were to compare LOS and discharge dispositions following robotic arm-assisted total knee arthroplasty (RO TKA) and unicompartmental arthroplasty (RO UKA) versus conventional technique (CO TKA and UKA).

Aims

A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance.

Aims

Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before.

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Excellent outcomes have been reported following CT-based robotic arm-assisted total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) compared with manual THA; however, its superiority over CT-based navigation THA (nTHA) remains unclear. This study aimed to determine whether a CT-based robotic arm-assisted system helps surgeons perform accurate cup placement, minimizes leg length, and offsets discrepancies more than a CT-based navigation system.

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To assess the cost-effectiveness of a two-layer compression bandage versus a standard wool and crepe bandage following total knee arthroplasty, using patient-level data from the Knee Replacement Bandage Study (KReBS).

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Intra-articular (IA) injection may be used when treating hip osteoarthritis (OA). Common injections include steroids, hyaluronic acid (HA), local anaesthetic, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP). Network meta-analysis allows for comparisons between two or more treatment groups and uses direct and indirect comparisons between interventions. This network meta-analysis aims to compare the efficacy of various IA injections used in the management of hip OA with a follow-up of up to six months.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the tapered cone stem in total hip arthroplasty (THA) in patients with excessive femoral anteversion and after femoral osteotomy.

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Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool.

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Advances in treatment have extended the life expectancy of patients with metastatic bone disease (MBD). Patients could experience more skeletal-related events (SREs) as a result of this progress. Those who have already experienced a SRE could encounter another local management for a subsequent SRE, which is not part of the treatment for the initial SRE. However, there is a noted gap in research on the rate and characteristics of subsequent SREs requiring further localized treatment, obligating clinicians to extrapolate from experiences with initial SREs when confronting subsequent ones. This study aimed to investigate the proportion of MBD patients developing subsequent SREs requiring local treatment, examine if there are prognostic differences at the initial treatment between those with single versus subsequent SREs, and determine if clinical, oncological, and prognostic features differ between initial and subsequent SRE treatments.

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Distal femoral osteotomies (DFOs) are commonly used for the correction of valgus deformities and lateral compartment osteoarthritis. However, the impact of a DFO on subsequent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) function remains a subject of debate. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a unilateral DFO on subsequent TKA function in patients with bilateral TKAs, using the contralateral knee as a self-matched control group.

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The Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) is a 12-item measure commonly used for the assessment of shoulder surgeries. This study explores whether computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a shortened, individually tailored questionnaire while maintaining test accuracy.

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Using data from the Hip Fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip Arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) trial, we sought to determine if a difference in functional outcomes exists between monopolar and bipolar hemiarthroplasty (HA).

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It is unclear whether mortality outcomes differ for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery who are readmitted to the index hospital where their surgery was performed, or to another hospital.

Objectives. Osteoporosis has become an increasing concern for older people as it may potentially lead to osteoporotic fractures. This study is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of ten therapies for post-menopausal women using network meta-analysis. Methods. We conducted a systematic search in several databases, including PubMed and Embase. A random-effects model was employed and results were assessed by the odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Furthermore, with respect to each outcome, each intervention was ranked according to the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) value. Results. With respect to preventing new vertebral fractures (NVF), all ten drugs outperformed placebo, and etidronate proved to be the most effective treatment (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.39). In addition, zoledronic acid and parathyroid hormone ranked higher compared with the other drugs. With respect to preventing clinical vertebral fractures (CVF), zoledronic acid proved to be the most effective drug (OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.92), with denosumab as a desirable second option (OR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.96), when both were compared with placebo. As for adverse events (AE) and severe adverse events (SAE), no significant difference was observed. According to SUCRA, etidronate ranked first in preventing CVF; parathyroid hormone and zoledronic acid ranked highly in preventing NVF and CVF. Raloxifene was safe with a high rank in preventing AEs and SAEs though performed unsatisfactorily in efficacy. Conclusions. This study suggests that, taking efficacy and safety into account, parathyroid hormone and zoledronic acid had the highest probability of satisfactory performance in preventing osteoporotic fractures. Cite this article: G. Wang, L. Sui, P. Gai, G. Li, X. Qi, X. Jiang. The efficacy and safety of vertebral fracture prevention therapies in post-menopausal osteoporosis treatment: Which therapies work best? a network meta-analysis. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:452–463. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.67.BJR-2016-0292.R1

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To investigate the optimal thresholds and diagnostic efficacy of commonly used serological and synovial fluid detection indexes for diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in patients who have rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

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Transfusion after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has become rare, and identification of causative factors allows preventive measures. The aim of this study was to determine patient-specific factors that increase the risk of needing a blood transfusion.

Desmoid tumours are a rare fibroblastic proliferation of monoclonal origin, arising in deep soft-tissues. Histologically, they are characterized by locally aggressive behaviour and an inability to metastasize, and clinically by a heterogeneous and unpredictable course. Desmoid tumours can occur in any anatomical site, but commonly arise in the limbs. Despite their benign nature, they can be extremely disabling and sometimes life-threatening, causing severe pain and functional limitations. Their surgical management is complex and challenging, due to uncertainties surrounding the biological and clinical behaviour, rarity, and limited available literature. Resection has been the first-line approach for patients with a desmoid tumour but, during the last few decades, a shift towards a more conservative approach has occurred, with an initial ‘wait and see’ policy. Many medical and regional forms of treatment are also available for the management of this condition, and others have recently emerged with promising results. However, many areas of controversy remain, and further studies and global collaboration are needed to obtain prospective and randomized data, in order to develop an appropriate shared stepwise approach.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):729–734.

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To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA.

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We estimated the prevalence of people living with at least one hip, knee, or shoulder arthroplasty in the Netherlands.

Aims. A trial-based comparison of the use of resources, costs and quality of life outcomes of arthroscopic and open surgical management for rotator cuff tears in the United Kingdom NHS was performed using data from the United Kingdom Rotator Cuff Study (UKUFF) randomised controlled trial. Patients and Methods. Using data from 273 patients, healthcare-related use of resources, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated at 12 months and 24 months after surgery on an intention-to-treat basis with adjustment for covariates. Uncertainty about the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for arthroscopic versus open management at 24 months of follow-up was incorporated using bootstrapping. Multiple imputation methods were used to deal with missing data. Results. There were no significant differences between the arthroscopic and open groups in terms of total mean use and cost of resources or QALYs at any time post-operatively. Open management dominated arthroscopic management in 59.8% of bootstrapped cost and effect differences. The probability that arthroscopic management was cost-effective compared with open management at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained was 20.9%. Conclusion. There was no significant overall difference in the use or cost of resources or quality of life between arthroscopic and open management in the trial. There was uncertainty about which strategy was most cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1648–55

Aims

A novel enhanced cement fixation (EF) tibial implant with deeper cement pockets and a more roughened bonding surface was released to market for an existing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) system.This randomized controlled trial assessed fixation of the both the EF (ATTUNE S+) and standard (Std; ATTUNE S) using radiostereometric analysis.

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Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures.

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The optimal management of posterior malleolar ankle fractures, a prevalent type of ankle trauma, is essential for improved prognosis. However, there remains a debate over the most effective surgical approach, particularly between screw and plate fixation methods. This study aims to investigate the differences in outcomes associated with these fixation techniques.

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The aim of this study was to report long-term clinical outcomes of a modern convertible metal-backed glenoid (MBG) in total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA).

Objectives. We evaluated the accuracy of augmented reality (AR)-based navigation assistance through simulation of bone tumours in a pig femur model. Methods. We developed an AR-based navigation system for bone tumour resection, which could be used on a tablet PC. To simulate a bone tumour in the pig femur, a cortical window was made in the diaphysis and bone cement was inserted. A total of 133 pig femurs were used and tumour resection was simulated with AR-assisted resection (164 resection in 82 femurs, half by an orthropaedic oncology expert and half by an orthopaedic resident) and resection with the conventional method (82 resection in 41 femurs). In the conventional group, resection was performed after measuring the distance from the edge of the condyle to the expected resection margin with a ruler as per routine clinical practice. Results. The mean error of 164 resections in 82 femurs in the AR group was 1.71 mm (0 to 6). The mean error of 82 resections in 41 femurs in the conventional resection group was 2.64 mm (0 to 11) (p < 0.05, one-way analysis of variance). The probabilities of a surgeon obtaining a 10 mm surgical margin with a 3 mm tolerance were 90.2% in AR-assisted resections, and 70.7% in conventional resections. Conclusion. We demonstrated that the accuracy of tumour resection was satisfactory with the help of the AR navigation system, with the tumour shown as a virtual template. In addition, this concept made the navigation system simple and available without additional cost or time. Cite this article: H. S. Cho, Y. K. Park, S. Gupta, C. Yoon, I. Han, H-S. Kim, H. Choi, J. Hong. Augmented reality in bone tumour resection: An experimental study. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:137–143

Prediction tools are instruments which are commonly used to estimate the prognosis in oncology and facilitate clinical decision-making in a more personalized manner. Their popularity is shown by the increasing numbers of prediction tools, which have been described in the medical literature. Many of these tools have been shown to be useful in the field of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities (eSTS). In this annotation, we aim to provide an overview of the available prediction tools for eSTS, provide an approach for clinicians to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the available tools for their own patients, and discuss their possible applications in the management of patients with an eSTS.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1011–1016.

Aims

The aim of this study was to determine whether early surgical treatment results in better neurological recovery 12 months after injury than late surgical treatment in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI).