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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 736 - 746
1 Jun 2022
Shah A Judge A Griffin XL

Aims. This study estimated trends in incidence of open fractures and the adherence to clinical standards for open fracture care in England. Methods. Longitudinal data collected by the Trauma Audit and Research Network were used to identify 38,347 patients with open fractures, and a subgroup of 12,170 with severe open fractures of the tibia, between 2008 and 2019 in England. Incidence rates per 100,000 person-years and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Clinical care was compared with the British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma and National Major Trauma Centre audit standards. Results. In total, 60% of all open fractures occurred in males; the median age was 48 years (interquartile range (IQR) 29 to 68). Between 2012 and 2019, the overall incidence in England was 6.94 per 100,000 person-years. In males, the highest incidence observed was in those aged 20 to 29 years (11.50 per 100,000 person-years); in females, incidence increased with age, peaking at 32.11/100,000 person-years at 90 years of age and over. Among those with severe open fractures of the tibia, there was a bimodal distribution in males, peaking at 20 to 29 years (3.71/100,000 person-years) and greater than 90 years of age (2.84/100,000 person-years) respectively; among females, incidence increased with age to a peak of 9.91/100,000 person years at 90 years of age and over. There has been variable improvement with time in the clinical care standards for patients with severe open fractures of the tibia. The median time to debridement was 13.0 hours (IQR 6.4 to 20.9); almost two-thirds of patients underwent definitive soft-tissue coverage within 72 hours from 2016 to 2019. Conclusion. This is the first time the incidence of all open fractures has been studied using data from a national audit in England. While most open fractures occurred in young males, the incidence increased with age in females to a much greater level than observed in older males. The degree of missing data in the national audit is startling, and limits the certainty of inferences drawn concerning open fracture care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):736–746


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 3 | Pages 19 - 28
3 Mar 2020
Tsirikos AI Roberts SB Bhatti E

Aims. Severe spinal deformity in growing patients often requires surgical management. We describe the incidence of spinal deformity surgery in a National Health Service. Methods. Descriptive study of prospectively collected data. Clinical data of all patients undergoing surgery for spinal deformity between 2005 and 2018 was collected, compared to the demographics of the national population, and analyzed by underlying aetiology. Results. Our cohort comprised 2,205 patients; this represents an incidence of 14 per 100,000 individuals among the national population aged between zero and 18 years. There was an increase in mean annual incidence of spinal deformity surgery across the study period from 9.6 (7.2 to 11.7) per 100,000 individuals in 2005 to 2008, to 17.9 (16.1 to 21.5) per 100,000 individuals in 2015 to 2018 (p = 0.001). The most common cause of spinal deformity was idiopathic scoliosis accounting for 56.7% of patients. There was an increase in mean incidence of surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) (from 4.4 (3.1 to 5.9) to 9.8 (9.1 to 10.8) per 100,000 individuals; p < 0.001), juvenile idiopathic scoliosis (JIS) (from 0.2 (0.1 to 0.4) to one (0.5 to 1.3) per 100,000 individuals; p = 0.009), syndromic scoliosis (from 0.7 (0.3 to 0.9) to 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4) per 100,000 individuals; p = 0.044), Scheuermann’s kyphosis (SK) (from 0.2 (0 to 0.7) to 1.2 (1.1 to 1.3) per 100,000 individuals; p = 0.001), and scoliosis with intraspinal abnormalities (from 0.04 (0 to 0.08) to 0.6 (0.5 to 0.8) per 100,000 individuals; p = 0.008) across the study period. There was an increase in mean number of posterior spinal fusions performed each year from mean 84.5 (51 to 108) in 2005 to 2008 to 182.5 (170 to 210) in 2015 to 2018 (p < 0.001) and a reduction in mean number of growing rod procedures from 45.5 (18 to 66) in 2005 to 2008 to 16.8 (11 to 24) in 2015 to 2018 (p = 0.046). Conclusion. The incidence of patients with spinal deformity undergoing surgery increased from 2005 to 2018. This was largely attributable to an increase in surgical patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Paediatric spinal deformity was increasingly treated by posterior spinal fusion, coinciding with a decrease in the number of growing rod procedures. These results can be used to plan paediatric spinal deformity services but also evaluate preventative strategies and research, including population screening


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 101-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1379 - 1384
1 Oct 2019
Park J Park S Lee C

Aims. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and prognosis of patients with spinal metastasis as the initial manifestation of malignancy (SM-IMM). Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records of 338 patients who underwent surgical treatment for metastatic spinal disease. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups. The SM-IMM group included patients with no history of malignancy whose site of primary malignancy was diagnosed after the identification of spinal metastasis. The other group included patients with a history of treatment for primary malignancy who then developed spinal metastasis (SM-DTM). The incidence of SM-IMM by site of primary malignancy was calculated. The difference between prognoses after surgical treatment for SM-IMM and SM-DTM was established. Results. The median follow-up period was 11.5 months (interquartile range (IQR) 3.2 to 13.4) after surgical treatment. During the follow-up period, 264 patients died; 74 patients survived. The SM-IMM group consisted of 94 patients (27.8%). The site of primary malignancy in the SM-IMM group was lung in 35/103 patients (34.0%), liver in 8/45 patients (17.8%), kidney in 10/33 patients (30.3%), colorectum in 3/29 patients (10.3%), breast in 3/22 patients (13.6%), prostate in 3/10 patients (30%), thyroid in 4/8 patients (50%), and ‘other’ in 28/88 patients (31.8%). On Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, the SM-IMM group showed a significantly longer survival than the SM-DTM group (p = 0.013). The mean survival time was 23.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.5 to 30.5) in the SM-IMM group and 15.5 months (95% CI 11.8 to 19.2) in the SM-DTM group. Conclusion. Of the 338 enrolled patients who underwent surgical treatment for spinal metastasis, 94 patients (27.8%) underwent surgical treatment for SM-IMM. The SM-IMM group had an acceptable prognosis with surgical treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1379–1384


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 11, Issue 11 | Pages 814 - 825
14 Nov 2022
Ponkilainen V Kuitunen I Liukkonen R Vaajala M Reito A Uimonen M

Aims. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to gather epidemiological information on selected musculoskeletal injuries and to provide pooled injury-specific incidence rates. Methods. PubMed (National Library of Medicine) and Scopus (Elsevier) databases were searched. Articles were eligible for inclusion if they reported incidence rate (or count with population at risk), contained data on adult population, and were written in English language. The number of cases and population at risk were collected, and the pooled incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using either a fixed or random effects model. Results. The screening of titles yielded 206 articles eligible for inclusion in the study. Of these, 173 (84%) articles provided sufficient information to be included in the pooled incidence rates. Incidences of fractures were investigated in 154 studies, and the most common fractures in the whole adult population based on the pooled incidence rates were distal radius fractures (212.0, 95% CI 178.1 to 252.4 per 100,000 person-years), finger fractures (117.1, 95% CI 105.3 to 130.2 per 100,000 person-years), and hip fractures (112.9, 95% CI 82.2 to 154.9 per 100,000 person-years). The most common sprains and dislocations were ankle sprains (429.4, 95% CI 243.0 to 759.0 per 100,000 person-years) and first-time patellar dislocations (32.8, 95% CI 21.6 to 49.7 per 100,000 person-years). The most common injuries were anterior cruciate ligament (17.5, 95% CI 6.0 to 50.2 per 100,000 person-years) and Achilles (13.7, 95% CI 9.6 to 19.5 per 100,000 person-years) ruptures. Conclusion. The presented pooled incidence estimates serve as important references in assessing the global economic and social burden of musculoskeletal injuries. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(11):814–825


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 62 - 68
1 Jan 2024
Harris E Clement N MacLullich A Farrow L

Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 1 - 1
10 Jun 2024
Briggs-Price S O'Neill S Houchen-Wolloff L Modha G Fitzpatrick E Faizi M Shepherd J Mangwani J
Full Access

Introduction. Achilles tendon rupture (ATR) account for 10.7% of all tendon and ligament injuries and causes lasting muscular deficits and have a profound impact on patients’ quality of life. 1,2. The incidence, characteristics and management of ATR in the United Kingdom is poorly understood. Method. Data was collected prospectively from University Hospitals of Leicester Emergency Department (ED) between January 2016 and December 2020 and analysed retrospectively. The medical records were reviewed to determine management protocols (surgical/non-surgical) and limited mobilisation (VACOped™ boot) duration. Leicestershire population data was taken from Leicestershire County Council demography report. Findings. 277 individuals were diagnosed with an ATR during the 4-year period. The mean (SD) annual incidence was 56 (±6) ATR. An incidence rate of 8.02 per 100,000 people per annum. The average characteristics of those experiencing an ATR is male (78.3%), 46.8yrs old (±14.4), body mass index 29.1 (±6.3). Median (IQR) number of comorbidities 1 (2) and duration to present to ED was 0 days (1). The main mechanism of rupture was sporting activity (62.1%). 97.4% were non-surgically managed using a limited mobilisation boot (VACOped). The boot was worn for an average of 62.6 days (±8.9). 94 participants provided pre-ATR Achilles symptoms data. 16% (n=15/94) of participants reported a previous contralateral ATR. 7.4% reported a re-rupture (n=7/94). 15.4% (n=14/91) reported an Achilles tendinopathy on the ipsilateral side prior to ATR. 7.7% (n=7/91) reported bilateral Achilles tendinopathy and 1.1% (n=1/91) reported contralateral Achilles tendinopathy prior to ATR. Conclusion. The incidence of ATR is 8.02 cases per 100,000 people per annum. This is the first UK data on ATR incidence. Most ATR were managed non-surgically in this cohort. The majority of ruptures occurred during sporting activity. Those that had previous Achilles symptoms (24.2%) indicate tendons are not always asymptomatic prior to ATR


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_5 | Pages 9 - 9
13 Mar 2023
Harris E Farrow L Martin C Adam K Holt G
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The hip fracture burden on health and social care services in Scotland is anticipated to increase significantly, primarily driven by an ageing population. This study forecasts future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland until 2029. The monthly number of patients with hip fracture aged ≥ 50 admitted to a Scottish hospital between 01/01/2017 and 31/12/2021 was identified through data collected by the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit. This data was analysed using Exponential Smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average forecast modelling to project future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures until 2029. Adjustments for population change were accounted for by integrating population projections published by National Records of Scotland. Between 2017 and 2021 the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland increased from 6675 to 7797, with a respective increase in hip fracture incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000. By 2029, the averaged projected annual number of hip fractures is 10311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000. The largest percentage increase in hip fracture occurs in the 70-79 age group (57%), with comparable increases in both sexes (30%). Based upon these projections, overall length of stay following hip fracture will increase from 142713 bed days per annum in 2021, to 203412 by 2029, incurring an additional cost of over £25 million. Forecast modelling demonstrates that the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2029, with considerable implications for health and social care services


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 6 | Pages 448 - 454
6 Jun 2022
Korup LR Larsen P Nanthan KR Arildsen M Warming N Sørensen S Rahbek O Elsoe R

Aims. The aim of this study was to report a complete overview of both incidence, fracture distribution, mode of injury, and patient baseline demographics of paediatric distal forearm fractures to identify age of risk and types of activities leading to injury. Methods. Population-based cohort study with manual review of radiographs and charts. The primary outcome measure was incidence of paediatric distal forearm fractures. The study was based on an average at-risk population of 116,950. A total number of 4,316 patients sustained a distal forearm fracture in the study period. Females accounted for 1,910 of the fractures (44%) and males accounted for 2,406 (56%). Results. The overall incidence of paediatric distal forearm fractures was 738.1/100,000 persons/year (95% confidence interval (CI) 706/100,000 to 770/100,000). Female incidences peaked with an incidence of 1,578.3/100,000 persons/year at age ten years. Male incidence peaked at age 13 years, with an incidence of 1,704.3/100,000 persons/year. The most common fracture type was a greenstick fracture to the radius (48%), and the most common modes of injury were sports and falls from ≤ 1 m. A small year-to-year variation was reported during the five-year study period, but without any trends. Conclusion. Results show that paediatric distal forearm fractures are very common throughout childhood in both sexes, with almost 2% of males aged 13 years sustaining a forearm fracture each year. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):448–454


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 1 | Pages 150 - 156
1 Jan 2022
Leino OK Lehtimäki KK Mäkelä K Äärimaa V Ekman E

Aims. Proximal humeral fractures (PHFs) are common. There is increasing evidence that most of these fractures should be treated conservatively. However, recent studies have shown an increase in use of operative treatment. The aim of this study was to identify the trends in the incidence and methods of treatment of PHFs in Finland. Methods. The study included all Finnish inhabitants aged ≥ 16 years between 1997 and 2019. All records, including diagnostic codes for PHFs and all surgical procedure codes for these fractures, were identified from two national registers. Data exclusion criteria were implemented in order to identify only acute PHFs, and the operations performed to treat them. Results. During the 23-year study period, 79,676 PHFs were identified, and 14,941 operations were performed to treat them. The incidence of PHFs steadily increased. In 2019, the overall incidence was 105 per 100,000 person-years (10. 5. ). The sex-adjusted incidence for females was 147.1 per 10. 5. , and the age-adjusted incidence for patients aged ≥ 80 years was 407.1 per 10. 5. The incidence of operative treatment for PHFs rose during the first half of the study period and decreased during the second half. The use of plate osteosynthesis in particular decreased. In 2019, the incidence of operative treatment for PHFs was 13.2 per 10. 5. , with 604 operations. Conclusion. Although the incidence of PHFs is steadily increasing, particularly in elderly females, the incidence of operative treatment is now decreasing, which is in line with current literature regarding their treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):150–156


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 5 Supple B | Pages 11 - 16
1 May 2024
Fujita J Doi N Kinoshita K Seo H Doi K Yamamoto T

Aims. Lateral femoral cutaneous nerve (LFCN) injury is a complication after periacetabular osteo-tomy (PAO) using an anterior approach, which might adversely affect the outcome. However, no prospective study has assessed the incidence and severity of this injury and its effect on the clinical outcomes over a period of time for longer than one year after PAO. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and severity of the symptoms of LFCN injury for ≥ three years after PAO and report its effect on clinical outcomes. Methods. A total of 40 hips in 40 consecutive patients who underwent PAO between May 2016 and July 2018 were included in the study, as further follow-up of the same patients from a previous study. We prospectively evaluated the incidence, severity, and area of symptoms following LFCN injury. We also recorded the clinical scores at one year and ≥ three years postoperatively using the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and Japanese Orthopaedic Association Hip Disease Evaluation Questionnaire (JHEQ) scores. Results. A total of 20 patients (50%) had symptoms of a LFCN injury at one year after PAO. At ≥ three years postoperatively, the symptoms had completely resolved in seven of these patients and 13 (33%) had persistent symptoms. The severity and area of symptoms did not significantly differ between one and ≥ three years postoperatively. The JHEQ showed significant differences in the patient satisfaction and mental scores between those with and those without sypmtoms of LFCN injury at ≥ three years postoperatively, while there was no significant difference in the mean SF-36 scores. Conclusion. The incidence of LFCN injury after PAO using an anterior approach is high. The outcome of PAO, ≥ three years postoperatively, is poorer in patients with persistent symptoms from a perioperative LFCN injury, in that patient satisfaction and mental health scores are adversely affected. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5 Supple B):11–16


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_2 | Pages 16 - 16
10 Feb 2023
Gibson A Guest M Taylor T Gwynne Jones D
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The purpose of this study was to determine whether there have been changes in the complexity of femoral fragility fractures presenting to our Dunedin Orthopaedic Department, New Zealand, over a period of ten years. Patients over the age of 60 presenting with femoral fragility fractures to Dunedin Hospital in 2009 −10 (335 fractures) were compared with respect to demographic data, incidence rates, fracture classification and treatment details to the period 2018-19 (311 fractures). Pathological and high velocity fractures were excluded. The gender proportion and average age (83.1 vs 83.0 years) was unchanged. The overall incidence of femoral fractures in people over 60 years in our region fell by 27% (p<0.001). Intracapsular fractures (31 B1 and B2) fell by 29% (p=0.03) and stable trochanteric fractures by 56% (p<0.001). The incidence of unstable trochanteric fractures (31A2 and 31A3) increased by 84.5% from 3.5 to 6.4/10,000 over 60 years (p = 0.04). The proportion of trochanteric fractures treated with an intramedullary (IM) nail increased from 8% to 37% (p <0.001). Fewer intracapsular fractures were treated by internal fixation (p<0.001) and the rate of acute total hip joint replacements increased from 13 to 21% (p=0.07). The incidence of femoral shaft fractures did not change significantly with periprosthetic fractures comprising 70% in both cohorts. While there has been little difference in the numbers there has been a decrease in the incidence of femoral fragility fractures likely due to the increasing use of bisphosphonates. However, the incidence of unstable trochanteric fractures is increasing. This has led to the increased use of IM nails which are increasingly used for stable fractures as well. The increasing complexity of femoral fragility fractures is likely to have an impact on implant use, theatre time and cost


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 652 - 661
8 Aug 2024
Taha R Davis T Montgomery A Karantana A

Aims. The aims of this study were to describe the epidemiology of metacarpal shaft fractures (MSFs), assess variation in treatment and complications following standard care, document hospital resource use, and explore factors associated with treatment modality. Methods. A multicentre, cross-sectional retrospective study of MSFs at six centres in the UK. We collected and analyzed healthcare records, operative notes, and radiographs of adults presenting within ten days of a MSF affecting the second to fifth metacarpal between 1 August 2016 and 31 July 2017. Total emergency department (ED) attendances were used to estimate prevalence. Results. A total of 793 patients (75% male, 25% female) with 897 MSFs were included, comprising 0.1% of 837,212 ED attendances. The annual incidence of MSF was 40 per 100,000. The median age was 27 years (IQR 21 to 41); the highest incidence was in men aged 16 to 24 years. Transverse fractures were the most common. Over 80% of all fractures were treated non-surgically, with variation across centres. Overall, 12 types of non-surgical and six types of surgical treatment were used. Fracture pattern, complexity, displacement, and age determined choice of treatment. Patients who were treated surgically required more radiographs and longer radiological and outpatient follow-up, and were more likely to be referred for therapy. Complications occurred in 5% of patients (39/793). Most patients attended planned follow-up, with 20% (160/783) failing to attend at least one or more clinic appointments. Conclusion. MSFs are common hand injuries among young, working (economically active) men, but there is considerable heterogeneity in treatment, rehabilitation, and resource use. They are a burden on healthcare resources and society, thus further research is needed to optimize treatment. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):652–661


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 5 Supple B | Pages 98 - 104
1 May 2024
Mallett KE Guarin Perez SF Taunton MJ Sierra RJ

Aims. Dual-mobility (DM) components are increasingly used to prevent and treat dislocation after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Intraprosthetic dissociation (IPD) is a rare complication of DM that is believed to have decreased with contemporary implants. This study aimed to report incidence, treatment, and outcomes of contemporary DM IPD. Methods. A total of 1,453 DM components were implanted at a single academic institution between January 2010 and December 2021: 695 in primary and 758 in revision THA. Of these, 49 presented with a dislocation of the large DM head and five presented with an IPD. At the time of closed reduction of the large DM dislocation, six additional IPDs occurred. The mean age was 64 years (SD 9.6), 54.5% were female (n = 6), and mean follow-up was 4.2 years (SD 1.8). Of the 11 IPDs, seven had a history of instability, five had abductor insufficiency, four had prior lumbar fusion, and two were conversions for failed fracture management. Results. The incidence of IPD was 0.76%. Of the 11 IPDs, ten were missed either at presentation or after attempted reduction. All ten patients with a missed IPD were discharged with a presumed reduction. The mean time from IPD to surgical treatment was three weeks (0 to 23). One patient died after IPD prior to revision. Of the ten remaining hips with IPD, the DM head was exchanged in two, four underwent acetabular revision with DM exchange, and four were revised to a constrained liner. Of these, five (50%) underwent reoperation at a mean 1.8 years (SD 0.73), including one additional acetabular revision. No patients who underwent initial acetabular revision for IPD treatment required subsequent reoperation. Conclusion. The overall rate of IPD was low at 0.76%. It is essential to identify an IPD on radiographs as the majority were missed at presentation or after iatrogenic dissociation. Surgeons should consider acetabular revision for IPD to allow conversion to a larger DM head, and take care to remove impinging structures that may increase the risk of subsequent failure. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5 Supple B):98–104


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_11 | Pages 30 - 30
7 Jun 2023
Harris E Farrow L Martin C Adam K
Full Access

Hip fracture represents a significant challenge, placing increasing pressure on health and social care services in Scotland. This study establishes the ‘historic’ hip fracture burden, namely, the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland, and respective incidence, between 2017 – 2021. Furthermore, the ‘projected’ hip fracture burden and incidence from 2022 – 2029 was estimated, to inform future capacity and funding of health and social care services. The number of individuals with a hip fracture in Scotland between 2017 and 2021 was identified through the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit, enabling the annual number of hip fractures and respective incidence between 2017 – 2021 to be calculated. Projection modelling was performed using Exponential Smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average to estimate the number of hip fractures occurring annually from 2022 – 2029. A combined average projection was employed to provide a more accurate forecast. Accounting for predicted changes within the population demographics of Scotland, the projected hip fracture incidence up to 2029 was calculated. Between 2017 and 2021 the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland increased from 6675 to 7797 (15%), with an increase in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) of the at-risk population. Hip fracture was observed to increase across all groups, notably males, and the 70–79 and 80–89 age cohorts. By 2029, the combined average projection estimated the annual number of hip fractures at 10311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. The largest percentage increase in hip fracture by 2029 occurs in the 70–79 and 80–89 age cohorts (57% and 53% respectively). Based upon these projections, overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture will increase by 60699 days per annum by 2029, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million. Projection modelling demonstrates the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will increase substantially by 2029, with significant implications for health and social care services. This increase in hip fracture burden and incidence is influenced strongly by changing population demographics, primarily an ageing population


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_8 | Pages 122 - 122
11 Apr 2023
Chen L Zheng M Chen Z Peng Y Jones C Graves S Chen P Ruan R Papadimitriou J Carey-Smith R Leys T Mitchell C Huang Y Wood D Bulsara M Zheng M
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To determine the risk of total knee replacement (TKR) for primary osteoarthritis (OA) associated with overweight/obesity in the Australian population. This population-based study analyzed 191,723 cases of TKR collected by the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Registry and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The time-trend change in incidence of TKR relating to BMI was assessed between 2015-2018. The influence of obesity on the incidence of TKR in different age and gender groups was determined. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was then calculated to estimate the effect of obesity reduction on TKR incidence. The greatest increase in incidence of TKR was seen in patients from obese class III. The incidence rate ratio for having a TKR for obesity class III was 28.683 at those aged 18-54 years but was 2.029 at those aged >75 years. Females in obesity class III were 1.7 times more likely to undergo TKR compared to similarly classified males. The PAFs of TKR associated with overweight or obesity was 35%, estimating 12,156 cases of TKR attributable to obesity in 2018. The proportion of TKRs could be reduced by 20% if overweight and obese population move down one category. Obesity has resulted in a significant increase in the incidence of TKR in the youngest population in Australia. The impact of obesity is greatest in the young and the female population. Effective strategies to reduce the national obese population could potentially reduce 35% of the TKR, with over 10,000 cases being avoided


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_17 | Pages 55 - 55
24 Nov 2023
Wildeman P Rolfson O Wretenberg P Nåtman J Gordon M Söderquist B Lindgren V
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Aim. Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a serious complication following total hip arthroplasty (THA) entailing increased mortality, decreased quality of life, and high healthcare costs. In 2009 a nationwide, multidisciplinary infection control program was launched in Sweden, PRISS, which aimed to reduce the PJI burden by 50%. The primary aim was to investigate whether the PRISS project reduced PJI incidence after primary THA; the secondary aim was to evaluate other possible benefits of PRISS, such as shorter time to diagnosis. Method. We obtained data on patients undergoing primary THA in Sweden (n = 45,723 patients, 49,946 THAs), 2012–2014. Using personal identity numbers, this cohort was matched with the Swedish Prescribed Drug Registry. Medical records of patients with ≥4 weeks antibiotic consumption were reviewed to verify PJI diagnosis (n = 2240, 2569 THAs). Results. The cumulative incidence of PJI following the PRISS project was 1.2% [95% CI 1.1–1.3] as compared to 0.9% [95% CI 0.8–1.0] before. Cox regression models for the PJI incidence post PRISS indicates there were no statistical significance difference versus pre PRISS (HR 1.1 [95% CI 0.9–1.3]. There were similar time to PJI diagnosis after the PRISS project 24 vs 23 days (p=0.5). Conclusions. Despite the comprehensive nationwide PRISS project, Swedish PJI incidence was higher after the project and time to diagnosis remained unchanged. Factors contributing to PJI, such as increasing obesity, higher ASA class, and more fractures as indications, explain the PJI increase among primary THA patients


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 315 - 322
1 Mar 2023
Geere JH Swamy GN Hunter PR Geere JL Lutchman LN Cook AJ Rai AS

Aims. To identify the incidence and risk factors for five-year same-site recurrent disc herniation (sRDH) after primary single-level lumbar discectomy. Secondary outcome was the incidence and risk factors for five-year sRDH reoperation. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted using prospectively collected data and patient-reported outcome measures, including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), between 2008 and 2019. Postoperative sRDH was identified from clinical notes and the centre’s MRI database, with all imaging providers in the region checked for missing events. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate five-year sRDH incidence. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent variables predictive of sRDH, with any variable not significant at the p < 0.1 level removed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results. Complete baseline data capture was available for 733 of 754 (97.2%) consecutive patients. Median follow-up time for censored patients was 2.2 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.0 to 5.0). sRDH occurred in 63 patients at a median 0.8 years (IQR 0.5 to 1.7) after surgery. The five-year Kaplan-Meier estimate for sRDH was 12.1% (95% CI 9.5 to 15.4), sRDH reoperation was 7.5% (95% CI 5.5 to 10.2), and any-procedure reoperation was 14.1% (95% CI 11.1 to 17.5). Current smoker (HR 2.12 (95% CI 1.26 to 3.56)) and higher preoperative ODI (HR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.03)) were independent risk factors associated with sRDH. Current smoker (HR 2.15 (95% CI 1.12 to 4.09)) was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. Conclusion. This is one of the largest series to date which has identified current smoker and higher preoperative disability as independent risk factors for sRDH. Current smoker was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. These findings are important for spinal surgeons and rehabilitation specialists in risk assessment, consenting patients, and perioperative management. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):315–322


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_3 | Pages 34 - 34
23 Feb 2023
Seth I Bulloch G Seth N Siu A Clayton S Lower K Roshan S Nara N
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Complex regional pain syndrome type 1 (CRPS-I) is a devastating complication that can occur after limb extremity injuries. The effectiveness of vitamin C in preventing CRPS-I incidence is debatable. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the role of vitamin C in CRPS-I prevention and its effect on pain score, functional outcomes and complications rate after wrist, ankle, and foot fractures. We searched Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, . Clinicaltrial.gov. , and Google Scholar from infinity to May 2021 for relevant studies comparing the incidence of CRPS-I with administration of perioperative vitamin C versus placebo after wrist, ankle, and foot fractures. Continuous data such as functional outcomes and pain scores were pooled as mean differences (MD), whist dichotomous variables such as the incidence of CRPS-I and complications were pooled as odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence interval (CI). Data analyses was done using R software (meta package, version 4.9-0) for Windows. Eight studies, including two quasi-experimental studies, were included. The timeframe for vitamin C administration ranged from 42 to 50 days post-injury and/or surgical fixation and the dosage was either 500 mg or 1000 mg. The results showed that vitamin C was associated with a lower rate of CRPS-I relative to a placebo (OR 0.33, 95% CI [0.17, 0.63]). No significant difference was found between vitamin C and placebo in terms of complications (OR 1.90, 95% CI [0.99, 3.65]), functional outcomes (MD 6.37, 95% CI [-1.40, 14.15]), and pain scores (MD -0.14, 95% CI [-1.07, 0.79]). The findings demonstrate that when compared to placebo, at least 42 days of vitamin C prophylaxis is associated with prevention of CRPS-I following wrist, ankle, and foot fractures, irrespective of vitamin C dosage or fracture type. No significant differences were found with secondary outcomes


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_16 | Pages 48 - 48
19 Aug 2024
Falez F Casella F Zaccagno S
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Post-operative peri-prosthetic femoral fracture (PO-PPFF) is one of the most relevant complications in primary Total Hip Arthroplasty (pTHA), accountable for a significant clinical and socio-economic burden both in revision and fixation settings. We retrospectively reviewed of our series of 1586 cementless total hip arthroplasty performed between 1999 and 2019 (achieving a minimum of 5-years follow-up) with different short stems. We have observed a cumulative low incidence of PO-PPFF of 0,33% (5 cases): we divided Po-PPFF in two groups: fracture occurred around a short stem (A) and around a standard shortened stem (B), according to French Hip & Knee Classification of Short Stems. Despite the length of observed period (mean follow-up 12 years, min 5 years max 24 years) a total of 1512 cases (mean age at surgery 61 years, max 74, min 40 years) were available to clinical and radiographic follow-up, being this population enrolled in elective surgery clinical protocols. Our data exceed the low incidence of post-operative femoral fracture around bone -preserving previously reported by Kim in 2018 (12 fracture out of 1089 cases:1.1%). No correlation have been observed among occurrence of PO-PPF age of the patient and no fracture occurred around cemented short stems despite patient's characteristics were unfavourable in term of age and bone quality. This result is not unexpected, giving the lower incidence of peri-prosthetic fracture even cemented conventional stems, as reported in all registry and systematic reviews. A similar behaviour was reported in 2020 Australian Joint Registry, where Post-operative periprosthetic femoral fracture showed a steep curve in early period, but remaining firmly below 1% during the following 12 years. Our clinical data seems to confirm previous studies by Jones (conducted on synthetic bone and fresh-frozen cadaveric femurs) where higher fracture angles and higher fracture torque were detected in short hips compared to standard stems


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 210 - 218
28 Mar 2023
Searle HKC Rahman A Desai AP Mellon SJ Murray DW

Aims. To assess the incidence of radiological lateral osteoarthritis (OA) at 15 years after medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) and assess the relationship of lateral OA with symptoms and patient characteristics. Methods. Cemented Phase 3 medial Oxford UKA implanted by two surgeons since 1998 for the recommended indications were prospectively followed. A 15-year cumulative revision rate for lateral OA of 5% for this series was previously reported. A total of 163 unrevised knees with 15-year (SD 1) anterior-posterior knee radiographs were studied. Lateral joint space width (JSW. L. ) was measured and severity of lateral OA was classified as: nil/mild, moderate, and severe. Preoperative and 15-year Oxford Knee Scores (OKS) and American Knee Society Scores were determined. The effect of age, sex, BMI, and intraoperative findings was analyzed. Statistical analysis included one-way analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis H test, with significance set at 5%. Results. The mean age was 80.6 years (SD 8.3), with 84 females and 79 males. The mean JSW. L. was 5.6 mm (SD 1.4), and was not significantly related to age, sex, or intraoperative findings. Those with BMI > 40 kg/m. 2. had a smaller JSW. L. than those with a ‘normal’ BMI (p = 0.039). The incidence of severe and moderate lateral OA were both 4.9%. Overall, 2/142 (1.4%) of those with nil/mild lateral OA, 1/8 (13%) with moderate, and 2/8 (25%) with severe subsequently had a revision. Those with severe (mean OKS 35.6 (SD 9.3)) and moderate OA (mean OKS 35.8 (SD 10.5)) tended to have worse outcome scores than those with nil/mild (mean OKS 39.5 (SD 9.2)) but the difference was only significant for OKS-Function (p = 0.044). Conclusion. This study showed that the rate of having severe or moderate radiological lateral OA at 15 years after medial UKA was low (both 4.9%). Although patients with severe or moderate lateral OA had a lower OKS than those with nil/mild OA, their mean scores (OKS 36) would be classified as good. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):210–218