Background. Undisplaced Lisfranc-type injuries are subtle but potentially unstable fracture-dislocations with little known about the natural history. These injuries are often initially managed conservatively due to lack of initial displacement and uncertainty regarding subsequent instability at the tarsometatarsal joints (TMTJ). The aim of this study was to determine the secondary displacement rate and the need for delayed operative intervention in undisplaced Lisfranc injuries that were managed conservatively at initial presentation. Methods. Over a 6-year period (2011 to 2017), we identified 24 consecutive patients presenting to a university teaching hospital with a diagnosis of an undisplaced Lisfranc-type injury that was initially managed conservatively. Pre-operative radiographs were reviewed to confirm the undisplaced nature of the injury (defined as a diastasis< 2mm at the second TMTJ). The presence of a ‘fleck’ sign (small bony avulsion of the second metatarsal) was also noted. Electronic patient records and sequential imaging (plain radiographs/CT/MRI) were scrutinized for demographics, mechanism of injury and eventual outcome. Results. The mean age of the patients at the time of injury was 42 years (19 Female). 96% (23/24) were low energy injuries and 88% (21/24) had a positive ‘fleck sign’. The secondary displacement rate in this group of patients was 62.5% (15/24) over a median interval of 14 days (range 0 to 482 days). 12 patients underwent open reduction internal fixation after a median interval of 29 days (range 1 to 294 days) from their initial injury. One patient required TMTJ fusion at 19 months and two patients were managed non-operatively. The injury remained undisplaced in 37.5% patients (9/24) with only one patient requiring subsequent TMTJ fusion at 5 months. Conclusion. Undisplaced Lisfranc injuries have a high rate of secondary displacement and warrant close follow-up. Early primary stabilisation of undisplaced Lisfranc injuries should be considered to prevent unnecessary delays in surgical treatment

The natural history of scapholunate ligament injury is unknown. In fact, as far as we can tell, there has been no study examining the long-term natural history of this condition. It has, however, been assumed that the long-term progression of this injury leads to secondary osteoarthritis – scapholunate advanced collapse (the so-called SLAC wrist). In this study, we evaluated the clinical condition of 11 patients with proven scapholunate ligament injuries that had declined further treatment in an attempt to quantify any long-term disability. Whilst there was on-going pain and functional limitation in the injured wrist, there was no rapid progression of the osteoarthritis or SLAC wrist deformity

The classification of complex fractures of the proximal humerus has long been an area of dispute reflecting an inability to agree on the anatomy of these injuries based on conventional X-rays alone. We demonstrated here that 3-dimensional CT reconstructions, when viewed in a systematic fashion, can yield superior understanding and an enhanced concurrence among observers as to the nature of these fractures. This has lead to a modification of the Neer classification diagram of proximal humeral fractures to reflect their true 3-dimensional anatomy. A 3-dimensional understanding is crucial in and of itself during any process of surgical reconstruction, but a 3-dimensional classification is additionally useful insofar as it informs other aspects of clinical decision making. For example, in a particular category of injury what if any surgery is indicated? In this regard one must first know the natural history of the specific fracture type without the benefit of operative intervention. Towards an answer to this basic question we have categorized non-operated proximal humeral fracture patients according to the new 3-dimensional classification and have followed their clinical progress. We present here the Natural History in unoperated patients with the types of Complex injuries who historically have been the ones commonly recommended to surgery. Results: Over an 8 year period, 63 Complex Fractures treated non-operatively were evaluated with standardized indices. We conclude that overall motion, function and pain status of Complex Fractures of proximal humerus treated conservatively is similar to that of a successful surgical Shoulder Fusion. Motion is considerably compromised but pain is minimal and functional status is acceptable to most patients. Contrary to common belief avascular necrosis is rare even in severely displaced injuries. Additional new observations concerning Valgus/Varus, Head Split, and rotational injuries will also be presented. Future studies based on this 3-dimensional classification system need to be done to compare these natural history results with various types of surgical interventions

Background: Structural hip deformities including developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) and femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) are thought to predispose patients to degenerative joint changes. However, the natural history of these malformations is not clearly delineated. Methods: Seven-hundred twenty-two patients ≤55 years that received unilateral primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) from 1980–1989 were identified. Pre-operative radiographs were reviewed on the contralateral hip and only hips with Tönnis Grade 0 degenerative change that had minimum 10-year radiographic follow-up were included. Radiographic metrics in conjunction with the review of two experienced arthroplasty surgeons determined structural hip diagnosis as DDH, FAI, or normal morphology. Every available follow-up AP radiograph was reviewed to determine progression from Tönnis Grade 0–3 until the time of last follow-up or operative intervention with THA. Survivorship was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier methodology, hazard ratios, and multi-state modeling. Results: One-hundred sixty-two patients met all eligibility criteria with the following structural diagnoses: 48 DDH, 74 FAI, and 40 normal. Mean age at the time of study inclusion was 47 years (range 18–55), with 56% females. Mean follow-up was 20 years (range 10 – 35 years). Thirty-five patients eventually required THA: 16 (33.3%) DDH, 13 (17.6%) FAI, 6 (15.0%) normal. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with DDH progressed most rapidly, followed by FAI, with normal hips progressing the slowest. The mean number of years spent in each Tönnis stage by structural morphology was as follows: Tönnis 0: DDH = 17.0 years, FAI = 14.8 years, normal = 22.9 years; Tönnis 1: DDH = 12.2 years, FAI = 13.3 years, normal = 17.5 years; Tönnis 2: DDH = 6.0 years, FAI = 9.7 years, normal = 8.6 years; Tönnis 3: DDH = 1.6 years, FAI = 2.6 years, normal = 0.2 years. Analysis of degenerative risk for categorical variables showed that patients with femoral head lateralization >10 mm, femoral head extrusion indices >0.25, acetabular depth-to-width index <0.38, lateral center-edge angle <25 degrees, and Tönnis angle >10 degrees all had a greater risk of progression from Tönnis 0 to Tönnis 3 or THA. Among patients with FAI morphology, femoral head extrusion indices >0.25, lateral center-edge angle <25 degrees, and Tönnis angle >10 degrees all increased the risk of early radiographic progression. Analysis of degenerative risk for continuous variables using smoothing splines showed that risk was increased for the following: femoral head lateralization >8 mm, femoral head extrusion index >0.20, acetabular depth-to-width index <0.30, lateral center-edge angle <25 degrees, and Tönnis angle >8 degrees. Conclusions: This study defines the long-term natural history of DDH and FAI in comparison to structurally normal young hips with a presumably similar initial prognostic risk (Tönnis Grade 0 degenerative change and contralateral primary THA). In general, the fastest rates of degenerative change were observed in patients with DDH. Furthermore, risk of progression based on morphology and current Tönnis stage were defined, creating a new prognostic guide for surgeons. Lastly, radiographic parameters were identified that predicted more rapid degenerative change, both in continuous and categorical fashions, subclassified by hip morphology

The natural history of primary anterior glenohumeral dislocation in adolescent patients remains unclear and no consensus exists for management of these patients. The study objectives were to report the natural history following primary anterior glenohumeral joint dislocation in adolescent patients and to identify risk factors for repeat dislocation. We reviewed prospectively-collected clinical and radiological data of 133 adolescent patients (mean age 16.3 years (range 13–18); 115 male patients (86.5%)) diagnosed with primary anterior glenohumeral joint dislocation and managed nonoperatively from 1996 to 2008 at our institution (mean follow-up 95.2 months (range 1–215)). During follow-up, 102 (absolute incidence of 76.7%) patients experienced repeat dislocation. Median time interval between primary and repeat dislocation was 10 months (CI: 7.4 – 12.6). On survival analysis, 59% (CI: 51.2 – 66.8%) of patients remained stable one year following initial injury, 38% (CI: 30.2 – 45.8%) after two years, 21% (CI: 13.2- 28.8%) after five years, and 7% (CI: 1.1–12.9%) after 10 years. Neither age nor gender significantly predicted repeat dislocation during follow-up. In conclusion, adolescent patients with primary anterior glenohumeral joint dislocations have a high rate of repeat dislocation, which usually occurs within two years of initial injury, and these patients should be considered early for operative stabilisation

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of endocrine disease with calcific tendinitis and the effects that such disease has on its natural history. A retrospective observational cohort study of 102 consecutive patients (125 shoulders) with calcific tendinitis is presented. Seventy-three (71.6 %) female, 29 (28.4 %) male. Compared with population prevalences, significant levels of endocrine disorders were found in our study cohort. Sixty-six patients (81 shoulders, 62 female (93.9 %), 4 male (6.1 %), mean age 50.3 years) with associated endocrine disease were compared with 36 patients (44 shoulders, 11 female (30.6 %), 25 male (69.4 %), mean age 52.4 years) without endocrine disease. The endocrine cohort were significantly younger than the non-endocrine cohort when symptoms started (mean 40.9 years and 46.9 years respectively, p=0.0026), had significantly longer natural histories (mean 79.7 months compared with 47.1 months, p=0.0015) and a significantly higher proportion underwent operative treatment (46.9 % compared with 22.7 %, p=0.0014). Disorders of thyroid and oestrogen metabolism may contribute to calcific tendinitis aetiology. Classifying calcific tendinitis into Type I idiopathic and Type II secondary or endocrine-related aids prognosis and management

There are many reports concerning the aetiology and prophylaxis of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) but little is known about its natural history. The purpose of our study was to identify the incidence and site of DVT, the risk factors for pulmonary embolism and the natural history of DVT after total hip replacement (THR) in patients who do not receive any form of prophylactic or therapeutic treatment for DVT. Two hundred patients who had a primary THR were included: 100 had one-staged bilateral THR and 100 had unilateral THR and 150 implants were cemented and 150 cementless. Coagulation assays, a full blood count, blood typing and serum chemical profile tests were performed for all patients on three separate occasions. Bilateral simultaneous or unilateral venograms were performed on the sixth or seventh postoperative day and perfusion lung scans preoperatively and on the seventh or eighth postoperative day. Further venograms were performed in all patients who had thrombi six months later. In the patients with bilateral THR, 52 (26%) venograms were positive for thrombi, while in the patients with unilateral THR 20 (20%) were positive (p = 0.89). In the patients with a cemented THR, 31 venograms (20.7%) were positive for thrombi, while in those with a cementless THR 41 (27.3%) were positive (p = 0.654). Further venograms in all 72 patients who had thrombi at six months after operation showed that they resolved completely and spontaneously regardless of their site and size. No patients had symptoms of pulmonary emboli and none were seen on the perfusion lung scans. Two patients died from unrelated causes. Although the prevailing opinion is that patients with proximal venous thrombosis should be treated with anticoagulants, our study has shown that all thrombi regardless of their site and size resolve spontaneously without associated pulmonary embolism

The natural history of primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint in adolescent patients remains unclear and there is no consensus for management of these patients. The objectives of this study were to report the natural history of primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint in adolescent patients and to identify the risk factors for recurrent dislocation. We reviewed prospectively-collected clinical and radiological data on 133 adolescent patients diagnosed with a primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint who had been managed non-operatively at our hospital between 1996 and 2008. There were 115 male (86.5%) and 18 female patients (13.5%) with a mean age of 16.3 years (13 to 18) and a mean follow-up of 95.2 months (1 to 215). During follow-up, 102 (absolute incidence of 76.7%) patients had a recurrent dislocation. The median interval between primary and recurrent dislocation was ten months (95% CI 7.4 to 12.6). Applying survival analysis the likelihood of having a stable shoulder one year after the initial injury was 59% (95% CI 51.2 to 66.8), 38% (95% CI 30.2 to 45.8%) after two years, 21% (95% CI 13.2 to 28.8) after five years, and 7% (95% CI 1.1 to 12.9) after ten years. Neither age nor gender significantly predicted recurrent dislocation during follow-up. We conclude that adolescent patients with a primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint have a high rate of recurrent dislocation, which usually occurs within two years of their initial injury: these patients should be considered for early operative stabilisation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:520–6

This paper reports on a prospective study undertaken to determine the natural history of untreated idiopathic hooked forefoot. The progress of 130 affected feet in eighty-three children was followed for an average of seven years. At review 86% of the feet were normal or only mildly deformed and all were fully mobile; 10% were still moderately deformed but were asymptomatic; 4% remained deformed and stiff. It was not possible to detect these resistant cases before the age of three years, but the low failure rate would seem to justify a policy of expectant treatment

We studied the natural history of nontraumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head (ANFH) in 115 hips in 87 patients, 69 steroid-induced, 21 related to misuse of alcohol and 25 idiopathic. The average length of follow-up was over five years. Collapse occurred most often when the focus of bone necrosis occupied the weight-bearing surface of the femoral head. Flatness of the head due to subchondral fracture was an early manifestation of collapse. Classification into six types based upon the radiographic findings provided an accurate prognosis for individual cases of ANFH which is useful in planning treatment and in assessing its outcome

Deep infection, the most serious local complication of total hip replacement, prompted a study of the records of 135 patients (137 hips) thus afflicted in a nationwide survey of Canada. Particular attention has been paid to the natural history of the infection, and the problems of diagnosis are described. Twenty-one patients died after the insertion, or removal, of the prosthesis, and of the survivors of the original 135 patients only eighteen have been able to retain the prosthesis without further problems with the wound. The remaining patients had the prosthesis removed, and most dry wounds. Certain suggestions are made on management. The advice that a second total hip prosthesis should be inserted after a deep infection of the first implant is not supported

We present 2 year results of a prospective natural history study of Type III Acromioclaviclular joint dislocation (ACJD) treated non-operatively. Previous natural history studies are compromised by inconsistent definitions of the grade of injury and non-validated scoring tools; they do not identify which patients will have ongoing symptoms. This trial documents the strength and subjective recovery over time, and identifies risk factors for poor outcome and need for surgery. Patients with Rockwood Type III ACJD received a standardised rehabilitation protocol (6 sessions of physiotherapy). Clinical assessment was performed at presentation, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury, including isometric strength testing, pain (VAS/10) and subjective scores – Subjective percentage of normal (SPON), American Shoulder and Elbow (ASES), Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) and Quick Disabilities of Arm Shoulder and Hand (qDASH). 28 male patients were recruited, 26 reached 12, and 9 to 24 months follow up. Two required surgery and one emigrated. The mean age was 39 (15 to 67). Initial mean pain was 3/10, SPON 51% (6–95) and strength was 76% of the other side. By 3 months mean subjective recovery was 70% and strength 90%. Strength recovered to 99% of normal by 12 months but subjective scores remained at mean 90%; by 24 months subjective scores were mean 94%. 2 patients had subjective scores <80%. There was a wide range of initial subjective scores and weakness after Type III ACJD. 95% of strength had recovered by 6 months and subjective scores recovered to 94% of normal by 24 months. 4 patients (14%) did poorly with 2 requiring surgery. Low initial subjective score and inability to abduct the arm at presentation were risk factors for a poor outcome

We have observed the natural history without treatment of 46 limbs in 29 patients with infantile tibia vara and a metaphyseal-diaphyseal angle (MDA) of more than 11°. The femorotibial angle (FTA) and MDA were measured, and Langenskiöld’s classification of radiological changes in the proximal medial metaphysis of the tibia was used. In 22 limbs which were not in Langenskiöld stages II to III the condition resolved spontaneously without treatment. Of the remaining 24 which were in stages II to III, in 18 it resolved spontaneously by the age of six years, but six showed little or no improvement at the latest follow-up. It was impossible to differentiate by measuring the FTA or MDA whether spontaneous resolution could be expected before the age of four years. There was no difference in the rate of resolution of the deformity between those patients who had been treated by a brace and those who had received no treatment. We advise no initial treatment but review at six-monthly intervals until the age of four years, even in patients with Langenskiöld stage-II to stage-III deformity. When a deformity persisted or progressed we carried out a corrective osteotomy after the age of four years

1. The natural history and prognosis of progressive infantile idiopathic scoliosis are reviewed and twenty-eight cases are reported. 2. Resolving infantile idiopathic scoliosis is described and seven cases are reported. 3. The length of the curve, the degree of rotation, the age of onset of deterioration, and the rate of progression are the important factors in determining the type and severity of the deformity. 4. Infantile idiopathic scoliosis is briefly compared with congenital scoliosis

This is the largest reported natural history study of frozen shoulder. 500 patients were identified from a specialist shoulder clinic register with a diagnosis of frozen shoulder based on Codman’s criteria. 273 patients with primary frozen shoulder replied to a detailed postal questionnaire regarding their condition. Mean follow up from symptom onset was 52 months (range 12–240months), with 89% of shoulders followed up for a minimum of 3 years. A positive family history was identified in 20% (n=45) of 1st degree relatives. The relative risk to siblings compared with a control population was 4:1. Patients with mild to moderate symptoms recovered more quickly than those with severe or unbearable symptoms. The mean age of onset was 53 years (range27–85yrs). The female to male ratio was 1.6:1. The condition was bilateral in 20%, with no incidence of ipsilateral recurrence. 22% of patients reported a history of minor trauma to the upper limb prior to the onset of symptoms. 16% were diabetic and 4% reported a history of Dupuytren’s contracture. Right and left arms were affected equally with no relationship to hand dominance. 61% reported slow, and 39% reported sudden onset of symptoms. Generally pain and stiffness improved with time but at 3 and 4 years after onset 13% and 9% respectively still had symptoms. Frozen shoulder affects people mainly in their 6th decade. Genetic factors play an important role in the aetiology. The natural history is for improvement with time, with the less severe symptoms at onset improving most quickly. 9% of patients were still symptomatic at 4 year follow up

Volar wrist ganglion has a different mode of origin and higher complication rate after excision compared to its dorsal counterpart. This study, which is part of the Trent region ganglion audit, was carried out to prospectively evaluate the natural history and treatment outcome for volar wrist ganglia. Patients were invited to join the study between 1993 and 1995 following initial consultation with either an orthopaedic or plastic surgeon. Questionnaires were sent within the first year, at two years and finally at five to six years. The final review included a Patient Evaluation Measure (PEM) questionnaire. Of the 234 patients initially consulted, 186 joined the study, 155 of these responded, 122 at final review and 109 at year two. There were 98 females and 57 males. Three patient groups were identified:. Group I: natural history (no intervention) (N=38). Group II: aspiration/injection (39). Group III: excision group (78). In conclusion, over half of volar wrist ganglia disappear without any intervention between 2 to 5 years. About 45% recur whether aspirated or excised. There is a 18% complication rate with excision, but neither aspiration/injection nor leaving them alone with reassurance was associated with any complications. Irrespective of the treatment, about 80% of patients are satisfied at five years, slightly more than at two years. This information may form a basis for patient information before deciding treatment. It could also help general practitioners advise patients before hospital referral

We reviewed 47 patients with neurofibromatosis and dystrophic spinal deformities; 32 of these patients had been untreated for an average of 3.6 years and in them the natural history was studied. The commonest pattern of deformity at the time of presentation was a short angular thoracic scoliosis, but with progression the angle of kyphosis also increased. Deterioration during childhood was usual but its rate was variable. Severe dystrophic changes in the apical vertebrae and in particular anterior scalloping have a poor prognosis for deterioration. The dystrophic spinal deformity of neurofibromatosis requires early surgical stabilisation which should be by combined anterior and posterior fusion if there is an abnormal angle of kyphosis or severely dystrophic apical vertebrae. Some carefully selected patients can be treated by posterior fusion and instrumentation alone

Aim. To review the natural history of upper limb osteochondromas and assess their functional effect. Materials. We performed a retrospective casenote review of a consecutive patient cohort presenting between 1997–2012 with upper limb osteochondromas. Indications for surgical intervention were noted and considered to be cosmetic, functional (including pain relief) and ‘prophylactic’ in terms of deformity prevention. All patients were invited to complete questionnaires for the PODCI, DASH, OSS and MHS scores. Results. We identified 102 patients (62 male: 40 female; mean age = 13.3 years; range 3–31 years). 84 patients had multiple exostoses whilst 18 had a solitary lesion. 52 patients had shoulder girdle involvement (scapula, clavicle and proximal humerus), 51 forearm (Masada I (n=31) Masada II (n=9) Masada III (n=11)), and 38 hand involvement. 46/102 patients had concurrent lower limb lesions. 56 operative procedures were performed primarily for functional benefit. Shoulder girdle procedures (n=21) improved pressure related pain, scapular pseudowinging/dyskinesia and cuff impingement. Forearm procedures (n=35) were performed for functional and prophylactic reasons and involved excision with ulnar lengthening and radial deformity correction (n=15, Masada I), realignment osteotomy or radial head excision for subluxation (n=7, Masada II) and excision with internal fixation of concomitant osteotomy (n=13, Masada I/III). No hand surgery was performed. Radial head dislocations are associated with large ulnar lesions causing shortening > 0.15 total ulnar length. Osteochondromas of the upper limb are generally well tolerated: functional effects were most commonly present in lesions involving the forearm but significant patient benefit was noted following shoulder girdle procedures. The scoring systems used failed to discriminate well between the various procedures used and the perceived benefit. Conclusion:. Patient outcomes are related to surgical indications. Currently available PROMs are either inappropriate Qs (DASH) and/or non-validated (OSS, MHS) and/or non-specific (PODCI*) only 8 parameters for the upper extremity. Better-validated measures may be required. Level of evidence: IV

Background: Interest is growing in minimally invasive techniques to treat vertebral fractures in the elderly population. Amongst the benefits mooted are relief of pain and prevention of deformity. However little background data is available concerning the long-term outcome of such patients treated by either conservative or surgical means. Aim: To describe the natural history of a cohort of patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures, treated conservatively with bedrest and a Taylor brace. Patients and Methods: All patients admitted to our institution over a five-year period following a vertebral fracture were identified. A total of 223 patients were admitted over the study period. Of these, 61 were suitable for inclusion in the study. Following departmental approval all patients were contacted by phone and invited to participate in the study. Patients were examined in the clinic, plain radiographs were performed and the Oswestry pain score, a visual analogue pain score (VAS), and SF36 questionnaire were completed. Inclusion criteria: Patients over 65years at time of injury. Minor trauma e.g. minor fall. No neurological deficit. Exclusion criteria. Patients over 65years who were involved in major trauma. Non-Irish residents. Results: Mean patient age at the time of injury was 72.1years. Mean duration of follow up was 8.2 years with a minimum follow up of 5 years. Seven patients were lost to follow up. Of the remaining fifty-four patients, five had died since their admission. According to family members none had any pain or neurological symptoms related to their backs. Forty patients attended the clinic for review while nine completed telephone questionnaires. On examination two patients had a clinically evident kyphosis. The mean range of anterior flexion was 78.9° + 15°. The mean VAS pain score was 2.2 + 2.0. No significant correlation existed between the magnitude of the initial vertebral collapse and the Oswestry or SF36 scores. No significant further vertebral collapse was noted on radiographic follow up. A small cohort of patients did develop chronic back pain. These patients’ outcome could not be predicted on the basis of initial radiographs. Discussion: Our study supports conservative management: most patients recovered normal function and suffered little long-term pain. It was not possible to predict which patients would develop chronic back pain on the basis of initial radiographs. This calls into question the indications for undertaking vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty in the treatment of such patients

Difficulties arise when counselling younger patients on the long-term sequelae of a minor knee chondral defect. This study assesses the natural history of patients with grade 2 Outerbridge chondral injuries of the medial femoral condyle at arthroscopy. We reviewed all arthroscopies performed by one surgeon over 12 years with Outerbridge grade 2 chondral defects. Patients aged 30 to 59 were included. Meniscal injuries found were treated with partial menisectomy. All patients had five-year follow up minimum. Primary outcome measure was further interventions of total or unicondylar arthroplasty or high tibial osteotomy. We analysed 3,344 arthroscopies. Average follow up was 10 years (Range 5–17 years). A total of 357 patients met inclusion criteria of which 86 had isolated medial femoral condyle disease. Average age was 50 at the time of arthroscopy. Average BMI at surgery was 31.7 and average chondral defect area was 450 mm. 2. Isolated MFC chondral disease had a 10.5% intervention rate. Intervention occurred at a mean of 8.5 years post primary arthroscopy. In young patients Outerbridge II chondral injuries affecting ≥2 compartments have a high rate of further intervention within a decade. This information is crucial in counselling young patients on long-term sequelae of benign chondral lesions