It is anecdotally thought that a good outcome from the first of staged total hip arthroplasties (THAs) is predictive of benefit on the contralateral side. The objective was to determine whether outcome from the first THA could be used to predict outcome from the second, contralateral THA.

A retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients undergoing staged THAs at a UK arthroplasty centre over 25-years (1995–2020). A control THA group was identified and matched for age, gender, BMI, implant and diagnosis. One-year patient-reported outcome data was available for 91% 1543/1700.

1700 patients who underwent staged THA were compared to 1700 matched controls. Preoperative status was comparable for pain, function, and modified Harris hip score (mHHS, mean 41 SD 13 for both groups).

At one year, there was a 2% dissatisfaction rate in all groups (first of staged THAs, second of staged THAs and controls). Groups were similar in terms of pain, function and mHHS (mean 88 SD 11 for all groups). For every 100 patients undergoing staged THAs, 87 had a bilateral good outcome (mHHS >70 both), 11 had unilateral poor outcome (mHHS >70 one, <70 other) and 2 had bilateral poor outcome (mHHS <70 both).

If the first THA had a good outcome, the relative risk of a bad outcome was 20% less than for controls (RR 0.8 95% CI 0.6–1.1). If the first THA had a poor outcome, the risk of a second poor outcome was 4.5 times higher (RR 4.5 95% CI 3.2–6.4), increasing from 6% to 29% (absolute risk).

Patients undergoing staged THAs with a good outcome from the first THA were less likely to have a bad outcome with the second. Risk of a poor outcome after a previous successful THA was 6% but rose to almost 30% with a previous poor outcome. This remained after correcting for patient variables including gender, age, BMI and diagnosis, indicating a potentially novel independent risk factor for poor outcome from staged THA.