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Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_14 | Pages 1 - 1
10 Oct 2023
Haque S Downie S Ridley D Dalgleish S Nicol G
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There is little published literature to support the claim that a successful total knee replacement (TKR) is predictive of future good outcomes on the contralateral side. The objective was to identify whether outcome from the first of staged TKRs could be used to predict the outcome of the contralateral TKR.

This was a retrospective cohort study of 1687 patients over a 25-year period undergoing staged bilateral TKRs in a UK arthroplasty centre. A control group of 1687 patients undergoing unilateral TKR with matched characteristics was identified. Primary outcomes were satisfaction and Knee Society Score (KSS) at one year.

Preoperative status was comparable for pain, ROM and KSS (mean 41, 45, 43±14). At one year follow up, dissatisfaction was similar for all groups (4% first of staged TKR, 4% second of staged TKR, 5% controls). If the first TKR had a good outcome, the relative risk of a contralateral bad outcome was 20% less than controls (95% CI 0.6–1.2). If the first TKR had a poor outcome, the risk of a second poor outcome was 4 times higher (95% CI 2.8–6.1), increasing from 6% to 27% (absolute risk).

Patients undergoing the second of staged TKRs with a previous good outcome are likely to do well in their second procedure (94 in 100 will go on to have a second good outcome). Of those with a previous poor outcome, 27 in 100 will have a second poor outcome. The trend was persistent despite correcting for gender, age, BMI, and diagnosis.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 104-B, Issue SUPP_6 | Pages 4 - 4
1 Jun 2022
Hoban K Downie S Adamson D MacLean J Cool P Jariwala AC
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Mirels’ score predicts the likelihood of sustaining pathological fractures using pain, lesion site, size and morphology. The aim is to investigate its reproducibility, reliability and accuracy in upper limb bony metastases and validate its use in pathological fracture prediction.

A retrospective cohort study of patients with upper limb metastases, referred to an Orthopaedic Trauma Centre (2013–18). Mirels’ was calculated in 32 patients; plain radiographs at presentation scored by 6 raters. Radiological aspects were scored twice by each rater, 2-weeks apart. Inter- and intra-observer reliability were calculated (Fleiss’ kappa test). Bland-Altman plots compared variances of individual score components &total Mirels’ score.

Mirels’ score of ≥9 did not accurately predict lesions that would fracture (11% 5/46 vs 65.2% Mirels’ score ≤8, p<0.0001). Sensitivity was 14.3% &specificity was 72.7%. When Mirels’ cut-off was lowered to ≥7, patients were more likely to fracture (48% 22/46 versus 28% 13/46, p=0.045). Sensitivity rose to 62.9%, specificity fell to 54.6%. Kappa values for interobserver variability were 0.358 (fair, 0.288–0.429) for lesion size, 0.107 (poor, 0.02–0.193) for radiological appearance and 0.274 (fair, 0.229–0.318) for total Mirels’ score. Values for intraobserver variability were 0.716 (good, 95% CI 0.432–0.999) for lesion size, 0.427 (moderate, 95% CI 0.195–0.768) for radiological appearance and 0.580 (moderate, 0.395–0.765) for total Mirels’ score.

We showed moderate to substantial agreement between &within raters using Mirels’ score on upper limb radiographs. Mirels’ has poor sensitivity &specificity predicting upper limb fractures - we recommend the cut-off score for prophylactic surgery should be lower than for lower limb lesions.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 103-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 1 - 1
1 Oct 2021
Cherry J Downie S Harding T Gill S Johnson S
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Global surgical literature suggests that female trainees have less operative autonomy than their male counterparts. This pilot study had the primary objective to identify difference in autonomy by gender, and to power a national study to carry out further quantitative and qualitative research on this.

This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study utilising eLogbook data for all orthopaedic trainees (ST2-8) and consultants with CCT date 2016–2021 in a single Scottish deanery. The primary outcome measure was percentage of procedures undertaken as lead surgeon. 15 trainees and four recent consultants participated, of which 12 (63%) were male (mean grade 5.2), and 7 (37%) were female (mean grade 4.3). Trainees were lead surgeon on 64% of procedures (17595/27558), with autonomy rising with grade (37% ST1 to 85% ST8, OR 9.4). Operative autonomy was higher in male vs female trainees (66.5% and 61.4% respectively, p=<0.0001), with female trainees more likely to operate with a supervisor present (STU/S vs P/T, f 48%:13%, m 45%:20%).

This pilot study found that there was a significant difference in operative autonomy between male and female trainees, however this may be explained by differences in mean grade of male vs female trainees. Five trainees took time OOT, 4/5 of whom were female. Extension to a national multi-centre study should repeat the quantitative method of this study with additional qualitative analysis including assessing effect of time OOT to explore the reason for any gender discrepancies seen across different deaneries in the UK.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 3 | Pages 211 - 215
1 Mar 2021
Ng ZH Downie S Makaram NS Kolhe SN Mackenzie SP Clement ND Duckworth AD White TO

Aims

Virtual fracture clinics (VFCs) are advocated by recent British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma and Orthopaedics (BOASTs) to efficiently manage injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary aim of this national study is to assess the impact of these standards on patient satisfaction and clinical outcome amid the pandemic. The secondary aims are to determine the impact of the pandemic on the demographic details of injuries presenting to the VFC, and to compare outcomes and satisfaction when the BOAST guidelines were first introduced with a subsequent period when local practice would be familiar with these guidelines.

Methods

This is a national cross-sectional cohort study comprising centres with VFC services across the UK. All consecutive adult patients assessed in VFC in a two-week period pre-lockdown (6 May 2019 to 19 May 2019) and in the same two-week period at the peak of the first lockdown (4 May 2020 to 17 May 2020), and a randomly selected sample during the ‘second wave’ (October 2020) will be eligible for the study. Data comprising local VFC practice, patient and injury characteristics, unplanned re-attendances, and complications will be collected by local investigators for all time periods. A telephone questionnaire will be used to determine patient satisfaction and patient-reported outcomes for patients who were discharged following VFC assessment without face-to-face consultation.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 102-B, Issue SUPP_4 | Pages 9 - 9
1 Mar 2020
Gannon M Downie S Aggarwal I Parcell B Davies P
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Gram staining is used as an initial indicator of synovial joint infection but has widely varied false negative rates in the literature. Clinical decisions are often made on the basis of gram stain results, such as whether a patient requires urgent surgery, and therefore it is important to understand the tests efficacy.

A retrospective review of synovial fluid aspirates in NHS Tayside for the years 2017 and 2018 was performed from the departmental microbiology database. Aspirates of large joints were included (hip, knee, shoulder, wrist, elbow, ankle). Any joints with prosthesis were excluded, including fixation metalwork. Any abscess overlying a joint that was not proven to penetrate the joint was also excluded. Initial gram stain results and formal culture results were reviewed. Final culture results were considered to be the gold standard to compare gram stain results to.

2167 samples were reviewed. Of these 1552 were excluded base on inclusion criteria. Of the remaining 615, 120 (19.5%) were culture positive. There were 33 positive gram stain results, 1 false positive and 32 true positive results. The sensitivity was 26.67% with a specificity of 99.80% (p=0.0001). The negative predictive value is 84.88% (CI 83.44% – 86.21%).

These results show that gram stain tests of native joints have a low sensitivity and poor negative predictive value. This is reflected in the current literature with prosthetic joints. Based on this study caution should be used when interpreting a negative gram stain result with appropriate safety netting and follow up required alongside clinical assessment.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 101-B, Issue SUPP_7 | Pages 9 - 9
1 May 2019
Downie S Madden K Bhandari M Jariwala A
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International literature reports a 30% lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV, domestic abuse). Many of those affected have little interaction with healthcare. Since a third of abused patients sustain musculoskeletal injuries, the fracture clinic has potential for identifying victims of abuse. The aim was to identify the proportion of fracture clinic patients who had suffered IPV within the past year.

A prospective questionnaire study of patients in three UK adult fracture clinics was conducted. There were no gender/age exclusions and the target sample size was 278. This study had ethics approval and the questionnaire used is validated in this population.

Of 336 respondents, 46% were females with 63% aged over 40 (212/336). The total prevalence of IPV within the preceding 12 months was 9% (29/336). The lifetime prevalence of IPV amongst respondents was 20% (68/336). 38% of patients suffering from IPV had been physically abused by their partner (11/29 vs. 7% in controls, p<0.001). None of the patients were being seen for an injury related to abuse. Two thirds of respondents thought that staff should ask routinely about IPV (64% 216/336) but only 5% had been asked about abuse (18/336).

This is the first study in the UK investigating prevalence of IPV in orthopaedics. There is a high lifetime prevalence of abuse in fracture clinic patients. Patients are willing to disclose abuse within the fracture clinic setting and are supportive of staff asking about abuse. This presents an opportunity to identify those at risk in this vulnerable population.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 101-B, Issue SUPP_1 | Pages 6 - 6
1 Jan 2019
Downie S Clift B Jariwala A Gupta S Mahendra A
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National guidelines recommend that trauma centres have a designated consultant for managing metastatic bone disease (MBD). No such system exists in Scotland. We compared MBD cases in a trauma hospital to a national bone tumour centre to characterise differences in management and outcome.

Consecutive patients with metastatic proximal femoral lesions referred to a trauma unit and a national sarcoma centre were compared over a seven-year period (minimum follow-up one year).

From Jan 2010-Dec 2016, 195 patients were referred to the trauma unit and 68 to the tumour centre. The trauma unit tended to see older patients (mean 72 vs. 65 years, p<0001) with cancers of poorer prognosis (e.g. 31% 61/195 vs. 13% 9/68 lung primary, p<0.001).

Both units had similar operative rates but patients referred to the tumour centre were more likely to have endoprosthetic reconstruction (EPR 44% tumour vs. 3% trauma centre, p<0.001). Patients with an EPR survived longer than those with other types of fixation (81% 17/21 vs. 31% 35/112 one-year survival, p<0.001). Patients undergoing EPR were more likely to have an isolated metastasis (62% 13/21 vs. 17% 4/24, p<0.001). One patient from each centre had a revision for failed metalwork.

There was a difference in caseload referred to both units, with the tumour centre seeing younger patients with a better prognosis. Patients suitable for endoprostheses were more likely to have isolated metastatic disease and a longer survival after surgery. An MBD pathway is required to ensure such patients are identified and referred for specialist management where appropriate.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 100-B, Issue SUPP_18 | Pages 9 - 9
1 Dec 2018
Downie S Adamson D Jariwala A
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Early mortality in patients with hip fractures due to bony metastases is unknown. The aim was to quantify 30 and 90-day mortality in patients with metastatic hip fractures and identify markers associated with early death.

Consecutive patients referred to orthopaedics with a metastatic proximal femoral fracture/impending fracture over a six-year period were compared to a matched control group of non-malignant hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was 1 year and data was analysed using the student´s t-test (significance p<0.05).

From Jan 2010-Dec 2015, 163 patients were referred with metastatic proximal femoral lesions. 90-day mortality was three times higher than controls (44% 71/163 vs. 12% 4/33, p<0.01). Mean time from referral to surgery was longer in impending versus completed fractures (11 and 4 days respectively, p<0.05).

Multiple biochemical markers were associated with early mortality in the metastatic group. Patients who died early were more likely to demonstrate low haemoglobin and albumin, and high c-reactive protein, platelets, urea, alkaline phosphatase and calcium (p<0.05).

Several biochemical markers associated with early mortality reached clinical and statistical significance. These markers were combined into a score out of 7 and indicated a higher early mortality in metastatic patients compared to controls. Patients with a score of 5–6/7 were 31 times more likely to die within 90 days versus controls.

This scoring system could be utilised to predict early mortality and guide management. The average delay to surgery of 4 days (completed) and 11 days (impending fractures) identifies a window to intervene and correct these abnormalities to improve survival.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 99-B, Issue SUPP_19 | Pages 4 - 4
1 Nov 2017
Downie S Annan K Clift B
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Two-stage revision is the gold standard for managing infected total hip and knee arthroplasties. The aim was to assess the effect of duration between stages on reinfection rate at one year.

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted on all studies investigating reinfection rate with documented interval between first and second stages. Total hip (THR) and total knee replacements (TKRs) were included but analysed separately. The effect size of studies was stratified according to sample size then with study quality.

All papers up until November 2015 (including non-English language) were considered. From 3827 papers reviewed, 38 cohorts from 35 studies were included, comprising 23 THR and 15 TKR groups. Average study quality was 5.6/11 (range 3–8). Funnel plots calculated to assess for bias indicated significant asymmetry at lower sample sizes in both groups.

In the TKR group, studies with 0–3 months between stages showed a significantly lower reinfection rate than 3–6 months (9.5% 21/222 vs 20.7% 28/135, p<0.01). A similar trend was seen in the THR group (6.1% vs 10.7%, p<0.05). No difference was observed for either group between 3–6 and 6–9 months.

There is no consensus regarding the appropriate duration between surgeries in two-stage revisions for infection. Studies stratified by sample size and quality indicate an increased reinfection rate past three months. Published guidance is no substitute for clinical decision-making but the conclusions from this study are to recommend against routine delay of more than 3 months between first and second stage revisions for infected THR and TKR.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 98-B, Issue SUPP_18 | Pages 2 - 2
1 Nov 2016
Downie S Adamson D Jariwala A
Full Access

There is comprehensive data addressing the 6 to 18-month survival in patients with pathological neck of femur (NOF) fractures due to bony metastases. However, little is known about early mortality in this group. The aim was to quantify 30 and 90-day mortality in patients with pathological NOF lesions/fractures and identify biochemical markers associated with early death.

Orthopaedic trauma lists over one year were used to identify patients with a pathological NOF fracture/lesion.

33 patients had a metastatic NOF fracture/lesion and were compared to a control group of age and gender-matched non-pathological NOF fractures. Time from referral to surgery was higher in patients with a pathological fracture compared to a pathological lesion (average 7.4 and 0.6 days, p<0.05). 30 and 90-day mortality was higher in the metastatic group compared to controls (15% 5/33 vs 9% 3/33 p<0.05, and 42% 14/33 vs 12% 4/33 p<0.01, respectively).

Patients with early mortality had lower average sodium (135 vs 138, p<0.05), creatinine (48 vs 62, p<0.05) and APTT (27 vs 32, p<0.05). They had a higher average WCC (11.3 vs 7, p<0.05) and CRP (55 vs 18, p<0.01). Metastatic patients with early mortality had lower albumin (20 vs 30, p<0.01) and haemoglobin (102 vs 121, p<0.01), which were higher in the control NOF group with early mortality (albumin 28 and haemoglobin 118 respectively, p<0.05).

Patients with pathological NOF lesions have multiple biochemical abnormalities associated with early mortality. A prospective study is proposed to assess whether correction of these abnormalities can improve survival in this group.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 98-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 5 - 5
1 Jun 2016
Nicoll K Downie S Hilley A Breusch S Clift B
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British national guidelines recommend agents which antagonise factor Xa or warfarin as prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in lower limb arthroplasty. However, they discourage the use of aspirin prophylaxis.

We conducted a prospective, multi-centre audit between two national centres, Ninewells Hospital in Dundee and the Royal Infirmary in Edinburgh to compare bleeding and VTE risk. Only Edinburgh routinely uses aspirin as VTE prophylaxis. The study comprises a number of cycles from 2013 to 2015. Consecutive groups of patients were identified prospectively using elective theatre data and information extracted from their case-notes on type of VTE prophylaxis, VTE occurrence, wound complications and length of hospital stay for a period of nine weeks post-operatively.

262 Edinburgh patients and 92 Dundee patients were included. Most Edinburgh patients were prescribed aspirin in hospital and on discharge (188/262, 71.8%), in line with local protocol. In Dundee, dalteparin was most commonly prescribed in hospital (68/92, 73.9%) and rivaroxaban on discharge (57/92, 62.0%).

The Edinburgh group had a 1.5% incidence of pulmonary embolus (PE) and a 1% rate of deep venous thrombosis (DVT), 2% had problems with wound haematoma and one patient (0.4%) required a transfusion; no wound washouts were required. In Dundee there was 0% PE, 2% DVT, 5% had problems with haematoma, 3% required transfusion and 2% required washout. There was no difference in length of hospital stay, with a mode of 4 days for both centres.

Non-fatal PE was prevented in Dundee patients but possibly at the cost of greater incidence of wound complications.