The aim was to predict the number and incidence of distal radius fractures in Scotland over the next two decades according to age group, categorised into under 65yrs(65) and 65yrs and older (65), and estimate the potential increased operative burden.

The number of distal radius fractures in Scotland was isolated from the Global Burden of Disease database and this was used, in addition to historic population data and published population estimates, to create a multivariable model allowing incorporation of age group, sex and time. A Negative Binomial distribution was used to predict incidence in 2030 and 2040 and calculate projected number of fractures. A 20.4% operative intervention rate was assumed (local data).

In terms of number of fractures, there was a projected 61% rise in the 65 group with an overall increase of 2099 fractures per year from 3417 in 2020 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2960 – 3463) to 5516 in 2040 (95% CI 4155 – 5675). This was associated with 428 additional operative interventions per year for those 65yrs. The projected increase between 2020 and 2040 was similar in both sexes (60% in females, 63% in males), however the absolute increase in fracture number was higher in females. There was a 4% projected fall in the number of fractures in those 65.

Incidence of distal radius fractures is expected to considerably increase over the next two decades due to a projected increase in the number of fractures in the elderly. This has implications for associated morbidity and healthcare resource use.

The aim was to predict the number and incidence of distal radius fractures in Scotland over the next two decades according to age group, categorised into under 65yrs(<65) and 65yrs and older (≥65), and estimate the potential increased operative burden of this.

The number of distal radius fracture in Scotland was isolated from the Global Burden of Disease database and this was used, in addition to historic population data and population estimates, to create a multivariable model allowing incorporation of age group, sex and time. A Negative Binomial distribution was used to predict incidence in 2030 and 2040 and calculate projected number of fractures according to the population at risk. A 20.4% operative intervention rate was assumed in the ≥65 group (local data).

In terms of number of fractures, there was a projected 61% rise in the ≥65 group with an overall increase of 2099 fractures per year from 3417 in 2020 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2960 – 3463) to 5516 in 2040 (95% CI 4155–5675). This was associated with 428 additional operative interventions per year for those ≥65yrs. The projected increase between 2020 and 2040 was similar in both sexes (60% in females, 63% in males), however the absolute increase in fracture number was higher in females (2256 in 2020 [95% CI 1954–2287] to 3620 in 2040 [95% CI 2727–3721]) compared to males (1160 [95% CI 1005–1176] to 1895 [95% CI 1427–1950]). There was a 4% projected fall in the number of fractures in those <65.

Incidence of distal radius fractures is expected to considerably increase over the next two decades due to a projected increase in the number of fractures in the elderly. This has implications for the associated morbidity and healthcare resource use.

Abstract

This study aims to determine the lifetime risk of revision surgery after primary knee arthroplasty (KA).

The Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset was utilised to identify all patients undergoing primary KA during the period 1998–2019. The cumulative incidence function for revision and death was calculated and adjusted analyses utilised cause-specific Cox regression modelling to determine the influence of patient-factors. The lifetime risk was calculated for patients aged between 45–99 years using multiple decrement lifetable methodology.

The lifetime risk of revision ranged between 32.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 22.62–47.31) for patients aged 45–49 years and 0.63% (95%CI 0.1–4.5) for patients aged over 90 years. Adjusted analyses demonstrated the converse effect of age on revision (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.5, 95%CI 0.5–0.6) and death (HR 3.5, 95%CI 3.4–3.7). Male sex was associated with increased risks of revision (HR 1.1, 95%CI 1.1–1.2) and death (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.3–1.4). Patients with inflammatory arthropathy had a higher risk of death (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.7–1.8), but were less likely to be revised (HR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74–0.98) than those treated for osteoarthritis. Patients with greater number of comorbidities and greater levels of socio-economic deprivation were at increased risk of death, but neither increased the risk of revision.

The lifetime risk of revision knee arthroplasty varies depending on patient sex, age at surgery and underlying diagnosis. Patients aged between 45 and 49 years have a one in three probability of revision surgery within their lifetime. Conversely, patients aged 90 years or over were very unlikely to experience revision.

Anterior knee pain (AKP) is the commonest complication of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study aims to assess whether sagittal femoral component position is an independent predictor of AKP after cruciate retaining single radius TKA without primary patellofemoral resurfacing.

From a prospective cohort of 297 consecutive TKAs, 73 (25%) patients reported AKP and 89 (30%) reported no pain at 10 years. Patients were assessed pre-operatively and at 1, 5 and 10 years using the short form 12 and Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Variables assessed included demographic data, indication, reoperation, patella resurfacing, and radiographic criteria.

Patients with AKP (mean age 67.0 (38–82), 48 (66%) female) had mean Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) Pain scores of 34.3 (range 5–100). VAS scores were 0 in patients with no pain (mean age 66.5 (41–82), 60 (67%) female). Femoral component flexion (FCF), anterior femoral offset ratio, and medial proximal tibial angle all differed significantly between patients with AKP and no pain (p<0.001), p=0.007, p=0.009, respectively). All PROMs were worse in the AKP group at 10 years (p<0.05). OKSs were worse from 1 year (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis confirmed FCF and Insall ratio <0.8 as independent predictors of AKP (R² = 0.263). Extension of ≥0.5° predicted AKP with 87% sensitivity.

AKP affects 25% of patients following single radius cruciate retaining TKA, resulting in inferior patient-reported outcome measures at 10 years. Sagittal plane positioning and alignment of the femoral component are important determinants of long-term AKP with femoral component extension being a major risk factor.

There is much debate regarding the use of continuous-compartment-pressure-monitoring (CCM) in the diagnosis of acute compartment syndrome (ACS).

We retrospectively reviewed the management of all patients (aged 15 and over) who were admitted with a fracture of the tibial diaphysis, across 3 centres, during 2013–2015. Patient demographics, pre-existing medical problems, initial treatment, subsequent complications, methods of compartment monitoring, and follow-up were all included in the data collection. We separated patients into monitored (MG) and non-monitored groups (NMG), and compared the outcomes of their treatment. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and statistical significance was set as p < 0.05.

287 patients were included in this study (116 NMG vs. 171 MG). There were no significant differences observed in age, sex, previous medical problems, length of stay, AO classification of fracture and post-operative complications between the groups. 21 patients were suspected to have developed ACS (n=8 NMG 6.9percnt;, n=13 MG 7.6percnt;) and were treated with acute decompression fasciotomies. The average time from admission to fasciotomy was 20.3 hours (21.25hrs NMG, 19.5hrs MG p=0.448). There was no significant difference in the average length of hospital stay and documentation of complications at follow up between the 2 groups. There were no reported cases of soft tissue infections associated with the use of CCM.

This study illustrates that CCM does not increase the rate of fasciotomies in this patient group, or reduce the time to fasciotomy significantly. There was no evidence to suggest that use of CCM is associated with superficial or deep infection.

Increasing demands on our emergency department (ED) has resulted in the reduction of manipulations (MUAs) at the ‘front door’. We hypothesised that MUAs undertaken in theatre is rising with adverse financial implications. We performed a retrospective audit of operating lists in our institution from 2013–2016. Cost estimates were determined by our finance department. We used the NICE guidelines on management of non-complex fractures (NG38 Feb2016) as our audit standard.

Data on 1372 cases performed over a three-month representative period during 2013–2016 was analysed. MUAs were 13% of the total theatre workload, with an annual increase in volume noted. Additionally, simple displaced distal radius fractures were routinely receiving a MUA (with or without K-wires) as a primary procedure in theatre. When this workload is combined it makes up 22% of the total theatre workload. Average theatre time was 57 minutes per case. Delays to definite procedure ranged from 8 to 120 hours. Cost of hospital admission and theatre utilisation was approximately £1000 per patient. Conversely, the cost of a MUA in the ED was estimated at £150. Given that we currently undertake around 15 manipulations in theatre a month, performing such work in the ED it would save approximately £153,000 a year to our health board.

This audit identifies that MUAs of common orthopaedic injuries undertaken in theatre can lead too significant clinical and financial costs. We have proposed a strong financial argument to management for a twice weekly ‘manipulation list’ in the ED which is currently under review.

Successful treatment of periprosthetic joint infection involves surgical intervention and identification of infecting organisms to enable targeted antibiotic therapy. Current guidelines recommend intra-operative culture sampling to include at least 4 tissue samples and for each sample to be taken with a separate instrument.

We aimed to review current revision arthroplasty practice for Greater Glasgow, specifically comparing intra-operative sampling technique for infected revision cases with these guidelines.

We reviewed the clinical notes of all patients undergoing lower limb revision arthroplasty procedures in Greater Glasgow Hospitals (WIG, GRI, SGH) from July 2013 to August 2014. Demographics of all cases were collected. For revision procedures performed for infection we recorded details of intraoperative samples taken (number, type and sampling technique) and time for samples to reach the laboratory. Results of microbiology cultures were reviewed.

Two hundred and fifty five revision arthroplasty procedures (152 hips, 103 knees) were performed in the 12 month study period. Of these 57 (22%) were infected cases (28 hips, 29 knees). These cases were treated by 14 arthroplasty surgeons with a median number of 3 infected cases managed per surgeon (range 1–11). 58% of cases had the recommended number of tissue samples taken. The median number of microbiology samples collected was 4 (range 1–14). Most procedures (91%) had no documentation of whether separate instruments were used for sampling. Number of tissue samples taken (≥4, p=0.01), time to lab (<24 hours, p=0.03) were significantly associated with positive culture results.

In Greater Glasgow, a large number of surgeons manage infected arthroplasty cases with variability in intra-operative sampling techniques. Sample collection adheres to guideline recommendations in 58% cases. Adhering to guideline standards increases the likelihood of positive tissue cultures. Implementation of a standardised approach to intra-operative sampling for infected cases may improve patient management.