Aims. The aim of this trial was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a soft bandage and immediate discharge, compared with rigid immobilization, in children aged four to 15 years with a torus fracture of the distal radius. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, as well as a broader societal point of view. Health resources and quality of life (the youth version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-Y)) data were collected, as part of the Forearm Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) multicentre randomized controlled trial over a six-week period, using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Costs and health gains (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were estimated for the two trial treatment groups. Regression was used to estimate the probability of the new treatment being cost-effective at a range of ‘willingness-to-pay’ thresholds, which reflect a range of costs per QALY at which governments are typically prepared to reimburse for treatment. Results. The offer of a soft bandage significantly reduced cost per patient (saving £12.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£5.30 to £19.80)) while QALYs were similar (QALY difference between groups: 0.0013 (95% CI -0.0004 to 0.003)). The high probability (95%) that offering a bandage is a cost-effective option was consistent when examining the data in a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. In addition to the known clinical equivalence, this study found that the offer of a bandage reduced cost compared with rigid immobilization among children with a torus fracture of the distal radius. While the cost saving was small for each patient, the high frequency of these injuries indicates a significant saving across the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):623–630

Aims. A higher failure rate has been reported in haematogenous periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) compared to non-haematogenous PJI. The reason for this difference is unknown. We investigated the outcome of haematogenous and non-haematogenous PJI to analyze the risk factors for failure in both groups of patients. Methods. Episodes of knee or hip PJI (defined by the European Bone and Joint Infection Society criteria) treated at our institution between January 2015 and October 2020 were included in a retrospective PJI cohort. Episodes with a follow-up of > one year were stratified by route of infection into haematogenous and non-haematogenous PJI. Probability of failure-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared between groups using log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analysis was applied to assess risk factors for failure. Results. A total of 305 PJI episodes (174 hips, 131 knees) were allocated to the haematogenous (n = 146) or the non-haematogenous group (n = 159). Among monomicrobial infections, Staphylococcus aureus was the dominant pathogen in haematogenous PJI (76/140, 54%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci in non-haematogenous PJI (57/133, 43%). In both groups, multi-stage exchange (n = 55 (38%) in haematogenous and n = 73 (46%) in non-haematogenous PJI) and prosthesis retention (n = 70 (48%) in haematogenous and n = 48 (30%) in non-haematogenous PJI) were the most common surgical strategies. Median duration of antimicrobial treatment was 13.5 weeks (range, 0.5 to 218 weeks) and similar in both groups. After six years of follow-up, the probability of failure-free survival was significantly lower in haematogenous compared to non-haematogenous PJI (55% vs 74%; p = 0.021). Infection-related mortality was significantly higher in haematogenous than non-haematogenous PJI (7% vs 0% episodes; p = 0.001). Pathogenesis of failure was similar in both groups. Retention of the prosthesis was the only independent risk factor for failure in multivariate analysis in both groups. Conclusion. Treatment failure was significantly higher in haematogenous compared to non-haematogenous PJI. Retention of the prosthesis was the only independent risk factor for failure in both groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(12):1294–1302

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. Methods. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Results. At five years, Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 46% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44.6 to 46.9) of those with hip OA, and 20% (95% CI 19.7 to 21.0) of those with knee OA, had progressed to arthroplasty. The strongest prognostic factors were desire for surgery (hazard ratio (HR) hip 3.12 (95% CI 2.95 to 3.31), HR knee 2.72 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.90)), walking difficulties (HR hip 2.20 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.46), HR knee 1.95 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.20)), and frequent pain (HR hip 1.56 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.73), HR knee 1.77 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.00)). In hip OA, the probability of progression to surgery was lower among those with comorbidities (e.g. ≥ four conditions; HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)), with no detectable effects in the knee OA cohort. Instead, being overweight or obese increased the probability of OA progress in the knee cohort (HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.37)), but not among those with hip OA. Conclusion. Patients with hip OA progressed faster and to a greater extent to arthroplasty than patients with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by patients’ desire for surgery and by factors related to severity of OA symptoms, but factors not directly related to OA symptoms are also of importance. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery within five years, especially among those with knee OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):792–800

Aims. We report the natural course of Baker’s cysts following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) at short- and mid-term follow-up. Methods. In this prospective case series, 105 TKA patients were included. All patients who received surgery had a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis and had preoperatively presented with a Baker’s cyst. Sonography and MRI were performed to evaluate the existence and the gross size of the cyst before TKA, and sonography was repeated at a mean follow-up time of 1.0 years (0.8 to 1.3; short-term) and 4.9 years (4.0 to 5.6; mid-term) after TKA. Symptoms potentially attributable to the Baker’s cyst were recorded at each assessment. Results. At the one-year follow-up analysis, 102 patients were available. Of those, 91 patients were available for the 4.9-year assessment (with an 86.7% follow-up rate (91/105)). At the short- and mid-term follow-up, a Baker’s cyst was still present in 87 (85.3%) and 30 (33.0%) patients, respectively. Of those patients who retained a Baker’s cyst at the short-term follow-up, 31 patients (35.6%) had popliteal symptoms. Of those patients who continued to have a Baker’s cyst at the mid-term follow-up, 17 patients (56.7%) were still symptomatic. The mean preoperative cyst size was 14.5 cm. 2. (13.1 to 15.8). At the short- and mid-term follow-up, the mean cyst size was 9.7 cm. 2. (8.3 to 11.0) and 10.4 cm. 2. (9.8 to 11.4), respectively. A significant association was found between the size of the cyst at peroperatively and the probability of resolution, with lesions smaller than the median having an 83.7% (36/43) probability of resolution, and larger lesions having a 52.1% (25/48) probability of resolution (p < 0.001). At the mid-term follow-up, no association between cyst size and popliteal symptoms was found. Conclusion. At a mean follow-up of 4.9 years (4.0 to 5.6) after TKA, the majority (67.0%, 61/91) of the Baker’s cysts that were present preoperatively had disappeared. The probability of cyst resolution was dependent on the size of the Baker’s cyst at baseline, with an 83.7% (36/43) probability of resolution for smaller cysts and 52.1% (25/48) probability for larger cysts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):132–136

Tennis elbow (lateral epicondylitis or lateral elbow tendinopathy) is a self-limiting condition in most patients. Surgery is often offered to patients who fail to improve with conservative treatment. However, there is no evidence to support the superiority of surgery over continued nonoperative care or no treatment. New evidence also suggests that the prognosis of tennis elbow is not influenced by the duration of symptoms, and that there is a 50% probability of recovery every three to four months. This finding challenges the belief that failed nonoperative care is an indication for surgery. In this annotation, we discuss the clinical and research implications of the benign clinical course of tennis elbow. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):109–111

Economic evaluation provides a framework for assessing the costs and consequences of alternative programmes or interventions. One common vehicle for economic evaluations in the healthcare context is the decision-analytic model, which synthesizes information on parameter inputs (for example, probabilities or costs of clinical events or health states) from multiple sources and requires application of mathematical techniques, usually within a software program. A plethora of decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations of orthopaedic interventions have been published in recent years. This annotation outlines a number of issues that can help readers, reviewers, and decision-makers interpret evidence from decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations of orthopaedic interventions. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):17–20

Aims. To compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement versus single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. Using data from a multicentre randomized controlled trial (World Hip Trauma Evaluation 8 (WHiTE-8)) in the UK, a within-trial economic evaluation was conducted. Resource usage was measured over 120 days post randomization, and cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), gained from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective in the base-case analysis. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement had a significantly higher mean cost (£224 (95% confidence interval (CI) -408 to 855)) and almost the same QALYs (0.001 (95% CI -0.002 to 0.003)) relative to single-antibiotic cement from the UK NHS and PSS perspective. The probability of the high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement being cost-effective was less than 0.3 at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds, and its net monetary benefit was negative. This finding remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1070–1077

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with surgical reconstruction compared to rehabilitation for long-standing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in the NHS, and to estimate its cost-effectiveness. Methods. A total of 316 patients were recruited and randomly assigned to either surgical reconstruction or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment). Healthcare resource use and health-related quality of life data (EuroQol five-dimension five-level health questionnaire) were collected in the trial at six, 12, and 18 months using self-reported questionnaires and medical records. Using intention-to-treat analysis, differences in costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between treatment arms were estimated adjusting for baseline differences and following multiple imputation of missing data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs between reconstruction and rehabilitation. Results. At 18 months, patients in the surgical reconstruction arm reported higher QALYs (0.052 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.012 to 0.117); p = 0.177) and higher NHS costs (£1,017 (95% CI 557 to 1,476); p < 0.001) compared to rehabilitation. This resulted in an ICER of £19,346 per QALY with the probability of surgical reconstruction being cost-effective of 51% and 72% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY, respectively. Conclusion. Surgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with long-standing ACL injury is more effective, but more expensive, at 18 months compared to rehabilitation management. In the UK setting, surgical reconstruction is cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):38–45

Aims. The risk to patients and healthcare workers of resuming elective orthopaedic surgery following the peak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been difficult to quantify. This has prompted governing bodies to adopt a cautious approach that may be impractical and financially unsustainable. The lack of evidence has made it impossible for surgeons to give patients an informed perspective of the consequences of elective surgery in the presence of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to determine, for the UK population, the probability of a patient being admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection and their resulting risk of death; taking into consideration the current disease prevalence, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and preassessment pathway. Methods. The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative test was calculated using a lower-end RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 95%, and the UK disease prevalence of 0.24% reported in May 2020. Subsequently, a case fatality rate of 20.5% was applied as a worst-case scenario. Results. The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative preoperative test was 0.07% (around 1 in 1,400). The risk of a patient with an undetected infection being admitted for surgery and subsequently dying from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is estimated at approximately 1 in 7,000. However, if an estimate of the current global infection fatality rate (1.04%) is applied, the risk of death would be around 1 in 140,000, at most. This calculation does not take into account the risk of nosocomial infection. Conversely, it does not factor in that patients will also be clinically assessed and asked to self-isolate prior to surgery. Conclusion. Our estimation suggests that the risk of patients being inadvertently admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection for elective orthopaedic surgery is relatively low. Accordingly, the risk of death following elective orthopaedic surgery is low, even when applying the worst-case fatality rate. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1256–1260

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of surgical fixation with Kirschner (K-)wire ersus moulded casting after manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in an operating theatre setting. Methods. An economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial 2 (DRAFFT2) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was collected at three, six, and 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from an NHS and personal social services perspective. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates, and decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. In the base case analysis, surgical fixation with K-wire was more expensive (£29.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) -94.85 to 154.15)) and generated lower QALYs (0.007 (95% CI -0.03 to 0.016)) than moulded casting, but this difference was not statistically significant. The probability of K-wire being cost-effective at a £20,000 per QALY cost-effectiveness threshold was 24%. The cost-effectiveness results remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. The findings suggest that surgical fixation with K-wire is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to a moulded cast in adults, following manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in a theatre setting. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1225–1233

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical outcomes and factors contributing to failure of transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA), a type of spherical periacetabular osteotomy, for advanced osteoarthritis secondary to hip dysplasia. Methods. We reviewed patients with Tönnis grade 2 osteoarthritis secondary to hip dysplasia who underwent TOA between November 1998 and December 2019. Patient demographic details, osteotomy-related complications, and the modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS) were obtained via medical notes review. Radiological indicators of hip dysplasia were assessed using preoperative and postoperative radiographs. The cumulative probability of TOA failure (progression to Tönnis grade 3 or conversion to total hip arthroplasty) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limited method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of failure. Results. This study included 127 patients (137 hips). Median follow-up period was ten years (IQR 6 to 15). The median mHHS improved from 59 (IQR 52 to 70) preoperatively to 90 (IQR 73 to 96) at the latest follow-up (p < 0.001). The survival rate was 90% (95% CI 82 to 95) at ten years, decreasing to 21% (95% CI 7 to 48) at 20 years. Fair joint congruity on preoperative hip abduction radiographs and a decreased postoperative anterior wall index (AWI) were identified as independent risk factors for failure. The survival rate for the 42 hips with good preoperative joint congruity and a postoperative AWI ≥ 0.30 was 100% at ten years, and remained at 83% (95% CI 38 to 98) at 20 years. Conclusion. Although the overall clinical outcomes of TOA in patients with advanced osteoarthritis are suboptimal, favourable results can be achieved in selected cases with good preoperative joint congruity and adequate postoperative anterior acetabular coverage. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):783–791

Aims. The aim of this study to compare 30-day survival and recovery of mobility between patients mobilized early (on the day of, or day after surgery for a hip fracture) and patients mobilized late (two days or more after surgery), and to determine whether the presence of dementia influences the association between the timing of mobilization, 30-day survival, and recovery. Methods. Analysis of the National Hip Fracture Database and hospital records for 126,897 patients aged ≥ 60 years who underwent surgery for a hip fracture in England and Wales between 2014 and 2016. Using logistic regression, we adjusted for covariates with a propensity score to estimate the association between the timing of mobilization, survival, and recovery of walking ability. Results. A total of 99,667 patients (79%) mobilized early. Among those mobilized early compared to those mobilized late, the weighted odds ratio of survival was 1.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.05), of recovering outdoor ambulation was 1.25 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.51), and of recovering indoor ambulation was 1.53 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.78) by 30 days. The weighted probabilities of survival at 30 days post-admission were 95.9% (95% CI 95.7% to 96.0%) for those who mobilized early and 92.4% (95% CI 92.0% to 92.8%) for those who mobilized late. The weighted probabilities of regaining the ability to walk outdoors were 9.7% (95% CI 9.2% to 10.2%) and indoors 81.2% (95% CI 80.0% to 82.4%), for those who mobilized early, and 7.9% (95% CI 6.6% to 9.2%) and 73.8% (95% CI 71.3% to 76.2%), respectively, for those who mobilized late. Patients with dementia were less likely to mobilize early despite observed associations with survival and ambulation recovery for those with and without dementia. Conclusion. Early mobilization is associated with survival and recovery for patients (with and without dementia) after hip fracture. Early mobilization should be incorporated as a measured indicator of quality. Reasons for failure to mobilize early should also be recorded to inform quality improvement initiatives. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1317–1324

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify variables associated with time to revision, demographic details associated with revision indication, and type of prosthesis employed, and to describe the survival of hinge knee arthroplasty (HKA) when used for first-time knee revision surgery and factors that were associated with re-revision. Methods. Patient demographic details, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, indication for revision, surgical approach, surgeon grade, implant type (fixed and rotating), time of revision from primary implantation, and re-revision if undertaken were obtained from the National Joint Registry data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man over an 18-year period (2003 to 2021). Results. There were 3,855 patient episodes analyzed with a median age of 73 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 80), and the majority were female (n = 2,480, 64.3%). The median time to revision from primary knee arthroplasty was 1,219 days (IQR 579 to 2,422). Younger age (p < 0.001), decreasing ASA grade (p < 0.001), and indications for revision of sepsis (p < 0.001), unexplained pain (p < 0.001), non-polyethylene wear (p < 0.001), and malalignment (p < 0.001) were all associated with an earlier time to revision from primary implantation. The median follow-up was 4.56 years (range 0.00 to 17.52), during which there were 410 re-revisions. The overall unadjusted probability of re-revision for all revision HKAs at one, five, and ten years after surgery were 2.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2 to 3.3), 10.7% (95% CI 9.6 to 11.9), and 16.2% (95% CI 14.5 to 17.9), respectively. Male sex (p < 0.001), younger age (p < 0.001), revision for septic indications (p < 0.001) or implant fracture (p = 0.010), a fixed hinge (p < 0.001), or surgery performed by a non-consultant grade (p = 0.023) were independently associated with an increased risk of re-revision. Conclusion. There were several factors associated with time to first revision. The re-revision rate was 16.2% at ten years; however, the risk factors associated with an increased risk of re-revision could be used to counsel patients regarding their outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):47–55

Aims. This study compares the re-revision rate and mortality following septic and aseptic revision hip arthroplasty (rTHA) in registry data, and compares the outcomes to previously reported data. Methods. This is an observational cohort study using data from the German Arthroplasty Registry (EPRD). A total of 17,842 rTHAs were included, and the rates and cumulative incidence of hip re-revision and mortality following septic and aseptic rTHA were analyzed with seven-year follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to determine the re-revision rate and cumulative probability of mortality following rTHA. Results. The re-revision rate within one year after septic rTHA was 30%, and after seven years was 34%. The cumulative mortality within the first year after septic rTHA was 14%, and within seven years was 40%. After multiple previous hip revisions, the re-revision rate rose to over 40% in septic rTHA. The first six months were identified as the most critical period for the re-revision for septic rTHA. Conclusion. The risk re-revision and reinfection after septic rTHA was almost four times higher, as recorded in the ERPD, when compared to previous meta-analysis. We conclude that it is currently not possible to assume the data from single studies and meta-analysis reflects the outcomes in the ‘real world’. Data presented in meta-analyses and from specialist single-centre studies do not reflect the generality of outcomes as recorded in the ERPD. The highest re-revision rates and mortality are seen in the first six months postoperatively. The optimization of perioperative care through the development of a network of high-volume specialist hospitals is likely to lead to improved outcomes for patients undergoing rTHA, especially if associated with infection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):565–572

Aims. To clarify the mid-term results of transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA), a type of spherical periacetabular osteotomy, combined with structural allograft bone grafting for severe hip dysplasia. Methods. We reviewed patients with severe hip dysplasia, defined as Severin IVb or V (lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) < 0°), who underwent TOA with a structural bone allograft between 1998 and 2019. A medical chart review was conducted to extract demographic data, complications related to the osteotomy, and modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS). Radiological parameters of hip dysplasia were measured on pre- and postoperative radiographs. The cumulative probability of TOA failure (progression to Tönnis grade 3 or conversion to total hip arthroplasty) was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier product-limited method, and a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify predictors for failure. Results. A total of 64 patients (76 hips) were included in this study. The median follow-up period was ten years (interquartile range (IQR) five to 14). The median mHHS improved from 67 (IQR 56 to 80) preoperatively to 96 (IQR 85 to 97) at the latest follow-up (p < 0.001). The radiological parameters improved postoperatively (p < 0.001), with the resulting parameters falling within the normal range in 42% to 95% of hips. The survival rate was 95% at ten years and 80% at 15 years. Preoperative Tönnis grade 2 was an independent risk factor for TOA failure. Conclusion. Our findings suggest that TOA with structural bone allografting is a viable surgical option for correcting severely dysplastic acetabulum in adolescents and young adults without advanced osteoarthritis, with favourable mid-term outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):743–750

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of cemented hemiarthroplasty (HA) versus hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was measured over 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from the NHS and personal social service perspective. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was represented graphically using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that cemented implants were cost-saving (mean cost difference -£961 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£2,292 to £370)) and increased QALYs (mean QALY difference 0.010 (95% CI 0.002 to 0.017)) when compared to uncemented implants. The probability of the cemented implant being cost-effective approximated between 95% and 97% at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds held by decision-makers, and its net monetary benefit was positive. The findings remained robust against all the pre-planned sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that cemented HA is cost-effective compared with hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA in older adults with displaced intracapsular hip fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):922–928

Aims. Spinal anaesthesia has seen increased use in contemporary primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs). However, controversy exists about the benefits of spinal in comparison to general anaesthesia in primary TKAs. This study aimed to investigate the pain control, length of stay (LOS), and complications associated with spinal versus general anaesthesia in primary TKAs from a single, high-volume academic centre. Methods. We retrospectively identified 17,690 primary TKAs (13,297 patients) from 2001 to 2016 using our institutional total joint registry, where 52% had general anaesthesia and 48% had spinal anaesthesia. Baseline characteristics were similar between cohorts with a mean age of 68 years (SD 10), 58% female (n = 7,669), and mean BMI of 32 kg/m. 2. (SD 7). Pain was evaluated using oral morphine equivalents (OMEs) and numerical pain rating scale (NPRS) data. Complications including 30- and 90-day readmissions were studied. Data were analyzed using an inverse probability of treatment weighted model based on propensity score that included many patient and surgical factors. Mean follow-up was seven years (2 to 18). Results. Patients treated with spinal anaesthesia required fewer postoperative OMEs (p < 0.001) and had lower NPRS scores (p < 0.001). Spinal anaesthesia also had fewer cases of altered mental status (AMS; odds ratio (OR) 1.3; p = 0.044), as well as 30-day (OR 1.4; p < 0.001) and 90-day readmissions (OR 1.5; p < 0.001). General anaesthesia was associated with increased risk of any revision (OR 1.2; p = 0.021) and any reoperation (1.3; p < 0.001). Conclusion. In the largest single institutional report to date, we found that spinal anaesthesia was associated with significantly lower OME use, lower risk of AMS, and lower overall 30- and 90-day readmissions following primary TKAs. Additionally, spinal anaesthesia was associated with reduced risk of any revision and any reoperation after accounting for numerous patient and operative factors. When possible and safe, spinal anaesthesia should be considered in primary TKAs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1209–1214

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the pooled prevalence of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) and examine whether the risk of developing PTOA after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury has decreased in recent decades. Methods. The PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched from 1 January 1980 to 11 May 2022. Patient series, observational studies, and clinical trials having reported the prevalence of radiologically confirmed PTOA after ACL injury, with at least a ten-year follow-up, were included. All studies were analyzed simultaneously, and separate analyses of the operative and nonoperative knees were performed. The prevalence of PTOA was calculated separately for each study, and pooled prevalence was reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using either a fixed or random effects model. To examine the effect of the year of injury on the prevalence, a logit transformed meta-regression analysis was used with a maximum-likelihood estimator. Results from meta-regression analyses were reported with the unstandardized coefficient (β). Results. The pooled prevalence of PTOA was 37.9% (95% CI 32.1 to 44) for operatively treated ACL injuries with a median follow-up of 14.6 years (interquartile range (IQR) 10.6 to 16.7). For nonoperatively treated ACL injuries, the prevalence was 40.5% (95% CI 28.9 to 53.3), with a median of follow-up of 15 years (IQR 11.7 to 20.0). The association between the year of operation and the prevalence of PTOA was weak and imprecise and not related to the choice of treatment (operative β -0.038 (95% CI -0.076 to 0.000) and nonoperative β -0.011 (95% CI -0.101 to 0.079)). Conclusion. The initial injury, irrespective of management, has, by the balance of probability, resulted in PTOA within 20 years. In addition, the prevalence of PTOA has only slightly decreased during past decades. Therefore, further research is warranted to develop strategies to prevent the development of PTOA after ACL injuries. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1140–1148

Aims. This study aimed to determine clinical outcomes; relationships between postoperative anterior, lateral, and posterior acetabular coverage and joint survival; and prognostic factors for joint survival after transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA). Methods. Data from 616 patients (800 hips) with hip dysplasia who underwent TOA between November 1998 and December 2019 were reviewed. The median follow-up period was 8.9 years (IQR 5 to 14). A medical notes review was conducted to collect demographic data, complications, and modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS). Radiological indicators of acetabular coverage included lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA), anterior wall index (AWI), and posterior wall index (PWI). The cumulative probability of TOA failure (progression to Tönnis grade 3 or conversion to total hip arthroplasty) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limited method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors for failure. Results. Median mHHS improved from 68 preoperatively to 96 at the latest follow-up (p < 0.001). The overall joint survival rate was 97% at ten years and 70% at 20 years. For the postoperative LCEA subgroups, survival in the deficient group was lower than that in the excessive (p = 0.006) and normal (p = 0.007) groups. For the postoperative AWI subgroups, survival in the deficient group was lower than that in the excessive (p = 0.015) and normal (p < 0.001) groups. Multivariate analysis identified age (p = 0.010), Tönnis grade 2 (p < 0.001), roundness index (p = 0.003), fair joint congruity (p = 0.004), and postoperative AWI (p = 0.002) as independent risk factors. Conclusion. Deficient postoperative AWI adversely affected joint survival after TOA, underscoring the importance of sufficient anterior acetabular coverage, along with precise surgical indications, to ensure successful hip joint preservation in the treatment of hip dysplasia. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1399–1407

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical and radiological outcomes of an antiprotrusio acetabular cage (APC) when used in the surgical treatment of periacetabular bone metastases. Methods. This retrospective cohort study using a prospectively collected database involved 56 patients who underwent acetabular reconstruction for periacetabular bone metastases or haematological malignancy using a single APC between January 2009 and 2020. The mean follow-up was 20 months (1 to 143). The primary outcome measure was implant survival. Postoperative radiographs were analyzed for loosening and failure. Patient and implant survival were assessed using a competing risk analysis. Secondary parameters included primary malignancy, oncological treatment, surgical factors, length of stay in hospital, and postoperative complications. Results. A total of 33 patients (59%) died during the study period at a mean of 15 months postoperatively (1 to 63). No patient had radiological evidence of loosening or failure. Acetabular component survival was 100%. Three patients (5.4%) had further surgery; one (1.8%) underwent revision of the femoral component for dislocation, one required debridement with implant retention for periprosthetic joint infection, and one required closed reduction for dislocation. Using death as a competing risk, at 100 months, the probability of revision was 0.036 and the risk of death was 0.84. Conclusion. With appropriate patient selection, the antiprotrusio cage offers good implant survival, with a reasonable perioperative complication rate in this high-risk group of patients when managing metastatic disease or haematological malignancy around the acetabulum. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):504–509

Aims. Failure of irrigation and debridement (I&D) for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is influenced by numerous host, surgical, and pathogen-related factors. We aimed to develop and validate a practical, easy-to-use tool based on machine learning that may accurately predict outcome following I&D surgery taking into account the influence of numerous factors. Methods. This was an international, multicentre retrospective study of 1,174 revision total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasties (TKA) undergoing I&D for PJI between January 2005 and December 2017. PJI was defined using the Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria. A total of 52 variables including demographics, comorbidities, and clinical and laboratory findings were evaluated using random forest machine learning analysis. The algorithm was then verified through cross-validation. Results. Of the 1,174 patients that were included in the study, 405 patients (34.5%) failed treatment. Using random forest analysis, an algorithm that provides the probability for failure for each specific patient was created. By order of importance, the ten most important variables associated with failure of I&D were serum CRP levels, positive blood cultures, indication for index arthroplasty other than osteoarthritis, not exchanging the modular components, use of immunosuppressive medication, late acute (haematogenous) infections, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection, overlying skin infection, polymicrobial infection, and older age. The algorithm had good discriminatory capability (area under the curve = 0.74). Cross-validation showed similar probabilities comparing predicted and observed failures indicating high accuracy of the model. Conclusion. This is the first study in the orthopaedic literature to use machine learning as a tool for predicting outcomes following I&D surgery. The developed algorithm provides the medical profession with a tool that can be employed in clinical decision-making and improve patient care. Future studies should aid in further validating this tool on additional cohorts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7 Supple B):11–19

Aims. The routine use of dual-mobility (DM) acetabular components in total hip arthroplasty (THA) may not be cost-effective, but an increasing number of patients undergoing THA have a coexisting spinal disorder, which increases the risk of postoperative instability, and these patients may benefit from DM articulations. This study seeks to examine the cost-effectiveness of DM components as an alternative to standard articulations in these patients. Patients and Methods. A decision analysis model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using DM components in patients who would be at high risk for dislocation within one year of THA. Direct and indirect costs of dislocation, incremental costs of using DM components, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) values, and the probabilities of dislocation were derived from published data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was established with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis was used to examine the impact of variation. Results. In the base case, patients with a spinal deformity were modelled to have an 8% probability of dislocation following primary THA based on published clinical ranges. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, at its current average price ($1000), DM is cost-effective if it reduces the probability of dislocation to 0.9%. The threshold cost at which DM ceased being cost-effective was $1180, while the ICER associated with a DM THA was $71 000 per QALY. Conclusion. These results indicate that under specific clinical and economic thresholds, DM components are a cost-effective form of treatment for patients with spinal deformity who are at high risk of dislocation after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1297–1302

Aim and Methods. The goals of this study were to define the risk factors, nature, chronology, and treatment strategies adopted for periprosthetic femoral fractures in 32 644 primary total hip arthroplasties (THAs). . Results. There were 564 intra-operative fractures (1.7%); 529 during uncemented stem placement (3.0%) and 35 during cemented stem placement (0.23%). Intra-operative fractures were more common in females and patients over 65 years (p < 0.001). The majority occurred during placement of the femoral component (60%), and involved the calcar (69%). There were 557 post-operative fractures (20-year probability: 3.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2 to 3.9); 335 fractures after placement of an uncemented stem (20-year probability: 7.7%; 95% CI 6.2 to 9.1) and 222 after placement of a cemented stem (20-year probability: 2.1%; 95% CI 1.8 to 2.5). The probability of a post-operative fracture within 30 days after an uncemented stem was ten times higher than a cemented stem. The most common post-operative fracture type was a Vancouver A. G . (32%; n = 135), with 67% occurring after a fall. In all, 36% (n = 152) were treated with revision arthroplasty. . Conclusion. In summary, intra-operative fractures occur 14 times more often with uncemented stems. Female patients over 65 years of age are at highest risk. Post-operative fractures are also most common with uncemented stems, but are independent of age or gender. Cumulative risk of post-operative periprosthetic femur fracture was 3.5% at 20 years. Take home message: Intra-operative fractures occur 14 times more often with uncemented stems, particularly with female patients over 65 years of age, while post-operative fracture risk is independent of age or gender, but still increased with uncemented stems. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:461–7

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. The aims of this study were to compare the use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with subacromial decompression, arthroscopy only (placebo surgery), and no treatment for subacromial pain in the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS), and to estimate their cost-effectiveness. Patients and Methods. The use of resources, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were assessed in the trial at six months and one year. Results were extrapolated to two years after randomization. Differences between treatment arms, based on the intention-to-treat principle, were adjusted for covariates and missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated, with uncertainty around the values estimated using bootstrapping. Results. Cumulative mean QALYs/mean costs of health care service use and surgery per patient from baseline to 12 months were estimated as 0.640 (standard error (. se. ) 0.024)/£3147 (. se. 166) in the decompression arm, 0.656 (. se. 0.020)/£2830 (. se. 183) in the arthroscopy only arm and 0.522 (. se. 0.029)/£1451 (. se. 151) in the no treatment arm. Statistically significant differences in cumulative QALYs and costs were found at six and 12 months for the decompression versus no treatment comparison only. The probabilities of decompression being cost-effective compared with no treatment at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY were close to 0% at six months and approximately 50% at one year, with this probability potentially increasing for the extrapolation to two years. Discussion. The evidence for cost-effectiveness at 12 months was inconclusive. Decompression could be cost-effective in the longer-term, but results of this analysis are sensitive to the assumptions made about how costs and QALYs are extrapolated beyond the follow-up of the trial

Aims. Although total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly successful procedure, about 20% of patients remain dissatisfied postoperatively. This proportion is derived from dichotomous models of the assessment of surgical success or failure, which may not reflect the spectrum of outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore differing responses to surgery, and assess whether there are distinct groups of patients with differing patterns of outcome. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of a UK multicentre TKA longitudinal cohort study. We used a group-based trajectory modelling analysis of Oxford Knee Score (OKS) in the first year following surgery with longitudinal data involving five different timepoints and multiple predictor variables. Associations between the derived trajectory groups and categorical baseline variables were assessed, and predictors of trajectory group membership were identified using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, as appropriate. The final model was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (age, sex) and baseline OKS. Results. Data from 731 patients were available for analysis. Three distinct trajectories of outcome were identified: “poor” 14.0%, “modest” 39.1%, and “good” 46.9%. The predicted probability of membership for patients assigned to each trajectory group was high (0.89 to 0.93). Preoperative mental, physical health, and psychosocial factors determined which trajectory is likely to be followed. Poor responders were characterized by a comparatively small number of factors, preoperative expectations of pain and limitations, coping strategies, and a lower baseline physical health status, while the good responders were characterized by a combination of clinical, psychosocial, mental health, and quality of life factors. Conclusion. We identified three distinct response trajectories in patients undergoing TKA. Controlling for baseline score, age, and sex, psychosocial factors such as expectations of pain and limited function and poor coping strategies differentiated the trajectory groups, suggesting a role for preoperative psychosocial support in optimizing the clinical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1096–1102

Aims. Increasingly, patients with bilateral hip arthritis wish to undergo staged total hip arthroplasty (THA). With the rise in demand for arthroplasty, perioperative risk assessment and counselling is crucial for shared decision making. However, it is unknown if complications that occur after a unilateral hip arthroplasty predict complications following surgery of the contralateral hip. Patients and Methods. We used nationwide linked discharge data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2005 and 2014 to analyze the incidence and recurrence of complications following the first- and second-stage operations in staged bilateral total hip arthroplasty (BTHAs). Complications included perioperative medical adverse events within 30 to 60 days, and infection and mechanical complications within one year. Conditional probabilities and odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to determine whether experiencing a complication after the first stage of surgery increased the risk of developing the same complication after the second stage. Results. A total of 13 829 patients (5790 men and 8039 women) who underwent staged BTHAs were analyzed. The mean age at first operation was 62.9 years (14 to 95). For eight of the 12 outcomes evaluated, patients who experienced the outcome following the first arthroplasty had a significantly increased probability and odds of developing that same complication following the second arthroplasty, compared with those who did not experience the complication after the first surgery. This was true for digestive complications (OR 25.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.86 to 46.08; p < 0.001), urinary complications (OR 6.48, 95% CI 1.7 to 20.73; p = 0.01), haematoma (OR 12.17, 95% CI 4.55 to 31.14; p < 0.001), deep vein thrombosis (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.34 to 9.65; p < 0.001), pulmonary embolism (OR 12.03, 95% CI 2.02 to 46.77; p = 0.01), deep hip infection (OR 534.21, 95% CI 314.96 to 909.25; p < 0.001), superficial hip infection (OR 1574.99, 95% CI 269.83 to 9291.81; p < 0.001), and mechanical malfunction (OR 117.49, 95% CI 91.55 to 150.34; p < 0.001). Conclusion. The occurrence of certain complications after unilateral THA is associated with an increased risk of the same complication occurring after staged arthroplasty of the contralateral hip. Patients who experience these complications after unilateral hip arthroplasty should be appropriately counselled regarding their risk profile prior to undergoing staged contralateral hip arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):77–83

Aims. To investigate whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with the risk of all-cause revision or revision due to a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) after primary hip or knee arthroplasty. Methods. This retrospective cohort study comprised 18,979 consecutive hip and knee arthroplasties from a single high-volume academic hospital. At a median of 5.6 years (interquartile range (IQR) 3.5 to 8.1), all deaths and revisions were counted. To overcome the competing risk of death, competing risk analysis using the cumulative incidence function (CIF) was applied to analyze the association between different stages of CKD and revisions. Confounding factors such as diabetes and BMI were considered using either a stratified CIF or the Fine and Gray model. Results. There were 2,111 deaths (11.1%) and 677 revisions (3.6%) during the follow-up period. PJI was the reason for revision in 162 cases (0.9%). For hip arthroplasty, 3.5% of patients with CKD stage 1 (i.e. normal kidney function, NKF), 3.8% with CKD stage 2, 4.2% with CKD stage 3, and 0% with CKD stage 4 to 5 had undergone revision within eight years. For knee arthroplasty, 4.7% with NKF, 2.7% with CKD stage 2, 2.4% with CKD stage 3, and 7% of CKD stage 4 to 5 had had undergone revision. With the exception of knee arthroplasty patients in whom normal kidney function was associated with a greater probability of all-cause revision, there were no major differences in the rates of all-cause revisions or revisions due to PJIs between different CKD stages. The results remained unchanged when diabetes and BMI were considered. Conclusion. We found no strong evidence that CKD was associated with an increased risk of all-cause or PJI-related revision. Selection bias probably explains the increased amount of all-cause revision operations in knee arthroplasty patients with normal kidney function. The effect of stage 4 to 5 CKD was difficult to evaluate because of the small number of patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):689–695

Aims. The aim of the Scaphoid Waist Internal Fixation for Fractures Trial (SWIFFT) was to determine the optimal treatment for adults with a bicortical undisplaced or minimally displaced fracture of the waist of the scaphoid, comparing early surgical fixation with initial cast immobilization, with immediate fixation being offered to patients with nonunion. Methods. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to assess the relative merits of these forms of treatment. The differences in costs to the healthcare system and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the patients over the one-year follow-up of the trial in the two treatment arms were estimated using regression analysis. Results. Our base case analysis found that patients randomized to early surgical fixation had statistically significantly higher mean costs to the NHS of £1,295 more than for the cast immobilization arm (p < 0.001), primarily due to the cost of surgery. They also had a marginally better quality of life, over the period, of 0.0158 QALYs; however, this was not statistically significant (p = 0.379). The mean combined cost per additional QALY was £81,962, well above the accepted threshold for cost-effectiveness used in the UK and internationally. The probability of early surgery being cost-effective in this setting was only 5.6%. Conclusion. Consistent with the clinical findings of SWIFFT, these results indicate that initial cast immobilization of minimally displaced scaphoid fractures, with immediate fixation only offered to patients with nonunion, is the optimal form of treatment, resulting in comparable outcomes with less cost to the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1277–1283

Aims. This study aimed to identify the tibial component and femoral component coronal angles (TCCAs and FCCAs), which concomitantly are associated with the best outcomes and survivorship in a cohort of fixed-bearing, cemented, medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasties (UKAs). We also investigated the potential two-way interactions between the TCCA and FCCA. Methods. Prospectively collected registry data involving 264 UKAs from a single institution were analyzed. The TCCAs and FCCAs were measured on postoperative radiographs and absolute angles were analyzed. Clinical assessment at six months, two years, and ten years was undertaken using the Knee Society Knee score (KSKS) and Knee Society Function score (KSFS), the Oxford Knee Score (OKS), the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey questionnaire (SF-36), and range of motion (ROM). Fulfilment of expectations and satisfaction was also recorded. Implant survivorship was reviewed at a mean follow-up of 14 years (12 to 16). Multivariate regression models included covariates, TCCA, FCCA, and two-way interactions between them. Partial residual graphs were generated to identify angles associated with the best outcomes. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare implant survivorship between groups. Results. Significant two-way interaction effects between TCCA and FCCA were identified. Adjusted for each other and their interaction, a TCCA of between 2° and 4° and a FCCA of between 0° and 2° were found to be associated with the greatest improvements in knee scores and the probability of fulfilling expectations and satisfaction at ten years. Patients in the optimal group whose TCCA and FCCA were between 2° and 4°, and 0° and 2°, respectively, had a significant survival benefit at 15 years compared with the non-optimal group (optimal: survival = 100% vs non-optimal: survival = 92%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 88% to 96%). Conclusion. Significant two-way interactions between the TCCA and FCCA demonstrate the importance of evaluating the alignment of the components concomitantly in future studies. By doing so, we found that patients who concomitantly had both a TCCA of between 2° and 4° and a FCCA of between 0° and 2° had the best patient-reported outcome measures at ten years and better survivorship at 15 years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):338–346

Aims. It has been suggested that the direct anterior approach (DAA) should be used for total hip arthroplasty (THA) instead of the posterior approach (PA) for better early functional outcomes. We conducted a value-based analysis of the functional outcome and associated perioperative costs, to determine which surgical approach gives the better short-term outcomes and lower costs. Methods. This meta-analysis was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol and the Cochrane Handbook. Several online databases were searched. Non-stratified and stratified meta-analyses were conducted to test the confounding biases in the studies which were included. The mean cost and probability were used to determine the added costs of perioperative services. Results. The DAA group had significantly longer operating times (p < 0.001), reduced length of hospital stay by a mean of 13.4 hours (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.12 to 18; p < 0.001), and greater blood loss (p = 0.030). The DAA group had significantly better functional outcome at three (p < 0.001) and six weeks (p = 0.006) postoperatively according to the Harris Hip Score (HHS). However, there was no significant difference between the groups for the HHS at six to eight weeks (p = 0.230), 12 weeks (p = 0.470), six months (p = 0.740), and one year (p = 0.610), the 12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12) physical score at six weeks (p = 0.580) and one year (p = 0.360), SF-12 mental score at six weeks (p = 0.170) and one year (p = 0.960), and University of California and Los Angeles (UCLA) activity scale at 12 weeks (p = 0.250). The mean non-stratified and stratified difference in costs for the operating theatre time and blood transfusion were $587.57 (95% CI 263.83 to 1,010.29) to $887.04 (95% CI 574.20 to 1,298.88) and $248.38 (95% CI 1,003.40 to 1,539.90) to $1,162.41 (95% CI 645.78 to 7,441.30), respectively, more for the DAA group. However, the mean differences in costs for the time in hospital were $218.23 and $192.05, respectively, less for the DAA group. Conclusion. The use of the DAA, rather than the PA, in THA has earlier benefits for function and pain. However, these are short-lasting, with no significant differences seen at later intervals. In addition the limited benefits were obtained with higher cumulative costs for DAA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1078–1087

Aims. Preoperative nasal Staphylococcus aureus screening and eradication reduces surgical site infections (SSIs) but its impact on reducing early prosthetic joint infection (PJI) remains controversial. This study aims to assess the effect of preoperative nasal S. aureus screening and eradication on the incidence of early PJI in general and S. aureus-induced early PJI. Methods. All primary total hip arthroplasties (THA) and total knee arthroplasties (TKA) performed from January 2006 to April 2018 were retrospectively reviewed for the incidence of early PJI. Demographic parameters, risk factors for PJI (American Society of Anaesthesiologists classification, body mass index, smoking status, and diabetes mellitus) and implant types were collected. A preoperative screening and eradication protocol for nasal colonization of S. aureus was introduced in October 2010. The incidence of early PJI was compared before and after the implementation of the protocol. Missing data were imputed via multiple imputation by chained equations. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for differences between patients in both groups. Weighted univariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the incidence of early PJI for both groups. Results. In total, 10,486 THAs and TKAs were performed in the research period. After exclusion, a cohort of 5,499 screened cases and 3,563 non-screened cases were available for analysis. Overall, no significant reduction in early PJI was found in the screened group (odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55 to 1.11; p = 0.173). However, the incidence of S. aureus-induced PJI was significantly reduced (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.92; p = 0.027) in the screened group. Conclusion. A preoperative nasal S. aureus screening and eradication protocol did not significantly reduce the overall incidence of early PJI after THA or TKA. However, a decreased incidence of S. aureus-induced early PJI was established. These findings can help to establish better consensus around the value of these screening protocols. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(10):1341–1348

Aims. To assess the effect of age on clinical outcome and revision rates in patients who underwent total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) for end-stage ankle osteoarthritis (OA). Methods. A consecutive series of 811 ankles (789 patients) that underwent TAA between May 2003 and December 2013 were enrolled. The influence of age on clinical outcome, including the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) hindfoot score, and pain according to the visual analogue scale (VAS) was assessed. In addition, the risk for revision surgery that includes soft tissue procedures, periarticular arthrodeses/osteotomies, ankle joint debridement, and/or inlay exchange (defined as minor revision), as well as the risk for revision surgery necessitating the exchange of any of the metallic components or removal of implant followed by ankle/hindfoot fusion (defined as major revision) was calculated. Results. A significant improvement in the AOFAS hindfoot score and pain relief between the preoperative assessment and the last follow-up was evident. Age had a positive effect on pain relief. The risk for a minor or major revision was 28.7 % at the mean follow-up of 5.4 years and 11.0 % at a mean follow-up of 6.9 years respectively. The hazard of revision was not affected by age. Conclusion. The clinical outcome, as well as the probability for revision surgery following TAA, is comparable between younger and older patients. The overall revision rate of the Hintegra total ankle is comparable with other three component designs. TAA should no longer be reserved for low demand elderly patients, but should also be recognized as a viable option for active patients of younger age. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):925–932

Aims. To compare the cost-utility of standard dressing with incisional negative-pressure wound therapy (iNPWT) in adults with closed surgical wounds associated with major trauma to the lower limbs. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective based on data collected from the Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma (WHiST) multicentre randomized clinical trial. Health resource utilization was collected over a six-month post-randomization period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates while uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The incremental cost of standard dressing versus iNPWT over six months was £2,037 (95% confidence interval (CI) £349 to £3,724). There was an insignificant increment in QALYs gained in the iNPWT group (0.005, 95% CI -0.018 to 0.028). The probability of iNPWT being cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY was 1.9%. The results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusion. The within-trial economic evaluation suggests that iNPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to standard dressing in adults with closed surgical wounds to their lower limbs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(8):1072–1081

Aims. Recently, there has been considerable interest in quantifying the associations between bony abnormalities around and in the hip joint and osteoarthritis (OA). Our aim was to investigate the relationships between acetabular undercoverage, acetabular overcoverage, and femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) with OA of the hip, which currently remain controversial. . Materials and Methods. A total of 545 cadaveric skeletons (1090 hips) from the Hamann-Todd osteological collection were obtained. Femoral head volume (FHV), acetabular volume (AV), the FHV/AV ratio, acetabular version, alpha angle and anterior femoral neck offset (AFNO) were measured. A validated grading system was used to quantify OA of the hip as minimal, moderate, or severe. Multiple linear and multinomial logistic regression were used to determine the factors that correlated independently with the FHV, AV, and the FHV/AV ratio. . Results. Female cadavers had smaller FHVs (standardised beta -0.382, p < 0.001), and AVs (standardised beta -0.351, p < 0.001), compared with male patients, although the FHV/AV ratio was unchanged. Every 1° increase in alpha angle increased the probability of having moderate OA of the hip compared with minimal OA by 7.1%. Every 1 mm decrease in AFNO increased the probability of having severe or moderate OA of the hip, compared with minimal OA, by 11% and 9%, respectively. The relative risk ratios of having severe OA of the hip compared with minimal OA were 7.2 and 3.3 times greater for acetabular undercoverage and overcoverage, respectively, relative to normal acetabular cover. . Conclusion . Acetabular undercoverage and overcoverage were independent predictors of increased OA of the hip. The alpha angle and AFNO had modest effects, supporting the hypothesis that bony abnormalities both in acetabular dysplasia and FAI are associated with severe OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:432–9

A suspected fracture of the scaphoid remains difficult to manage despite advances in knowledge and imaging methods. Immobilisation and restriction of activities in a young and active patient must be balanced against the risks of nonunion associated with an undiagnosed and undertreated fracture of the scaphoid. The assessment of diagnostic tests for a suspected fracture of the scaphoid must take into account two important factors. First, the prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures is low, which greatly reduces the probability that a positive test will correspond with a true fracture, as false positives are nearly as common as true positives. This situation is accounted for by Bayesian statistics. Secondly, there is no agreed reference standard for a true fracture, which necessitates the need for an alternative method of calculating diagnostic performance characteristics, based upon a statistical method which identifies clinical factors tending to associate (latent classes) in patients with a high probability of fracture. The most successful diagnostic test to date is MRI, but in low-prevalence situations the positive predictive value of MRI is only 88%, and new data have documented the potential for false positive scans. The best strategy for improving the diagnosis of true fractures among suspected fractures of the scaphoid may well be to develop a clinical prediction rule incorporating a set of demographic and clinical factors which together increase the pre-test probability of a fracture of the scaphoid, in addition to developing increasingly sophisticated radiological tests

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in comparison with standard wound management after initial surgical wound debridement in adults with severe open fractures of the lower limb. Patients and Methods. An economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of the United Kingdom NHS and Personal Social Services, based on evidence from the 460 participants in the Wound Management of Open Lower Limb Fractures (WOLLF) trial. Economic outcomes were collected prospectively over the 12-month follow-up period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Bivariate regression of costs (given in £, 2014 to 2015 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with multiple imputation of missing data, was conducted to estimate the incremental cost per QALY gained associated with NPWT dressings. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were undertaken to assess the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity, respectively, surrounding aspects of the economic evaluation. Results. The base case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £267 910 per QALY gained, reflecting higher costs on average (£678; 95% confidence interval (CI) -£1082 to £2438) and only marginally higher QALYS (0.002; 95% CI -0.054 to 0.059) in the NPWT group. The probability that NPWT is cost-effective in this patient population did not exceed 27% regardless of the value of the cost-effectiveness threshold. This result remained robust to several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Conclusion. This trial-based economic evaluation suggests that NPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy for improving outcomes in adult patients with severe open fractures of the lower limb. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1392–1401

Aims. A borderline dysplastic hip can behave as either stable or unstable and this makes surgical decision making challenging. While an unstable hip may be best treated by acetabular reorientation, stable hips can be treated arthroscopically. Several imaging parameters can help to identify the appropriate treatment, including the Femoro-Epiphyseal Acetabular Roof (FEAR) index, measured on plain radiographs. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and the sensitivity of FEAR index on MRI compared with its radiological measurement. Patients and Methods. The technique of measuring the FEAR index on MRI was defined and its reliability validated. A retrospective study assessed three groups of 20 patients: an unstable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with lateral centre edge angle (LCEA) less than 25° treated successfully by periacetabular osteotomy; a stable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with LCEA less than 25° treated successfully by impingement surgery; and an asymptomatic control group with LCEA between 25° and 35°. The following measurements were performed on both standardized radiographs and on MRI: LCEA, acetabular index, femoral anteversion, and FEAR index. Results. The FEAR index showed excellent intraobserver and interobserver reliability on both MRI and radiographs. The FEAR index was more reliable on radiographs than on MRI. The FEAR index on MRI was lower in the stable borderline group (mean -4.2° (. sd. 9.1°)) compared with the unstable borderline group (mean 7.9° (. sd. 6.8°)). With a FEAR index cut-off value of 2°, 90% of patients were correctly identified as stable or unstable using the radiological FEAR index, compared with 82.5% using the FEAR index on MRI. The FEAR index was a better predictor of instability on plain radiographs than on MRI. Conclusion. The FEAR index measured on MRI is less reliable and less sensitive than the FEAR index measured on radiographs. The cut-off value of 2° for radiological FEAR index predicted hip stability with 90% probability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1578–1584

Aims. Resection of the proximal humerus for the primary malignant bone tumour sometimes requires en bloc resection of the deltoid. However, there is no information in the literature which helps a surgeon decide whether to preserve the deltoid or not. The aim of this study was to determine whether retaining the deltoid at the time of resection would increase the rate of local recurrence. We also sought to identify the variables that persuade expert surgeons to choose a deltoid sparing rather than deltoid resecting procedure. Patients and Methods. We reviewed 45 patients who had undergone resection of a primary malignant tumour of the proximal humerus. There were 29 in the deltoid sparing group and 16 in the deltoid resecting group. Imaging studies were reviewed to assess tumour extension and soft-tissue involvement. The presence of a fat rim separating the tumour from the deltoid on MRI was particularly noted. The cumulative probability of local recurrence was calculated in a competing risk scenario. Results. There was no significant difference (adjusted p = 0.89) in the cumulative probability of local recurrence between the deltoid sparing (7%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1 to 20) and the deltoid resecting group (26%, 95% CI 8 to 50). Patients were more likely to be selected for a deltoid sparing procedure if they presented with a small tumour (p = 0.0064) with less bone involvement (p = 0.032) and a continuous fat rim on MRI (p = 0.002) and if the axillary nerve could be identified (p = 0.037). Conclusion. A deltoid sparing procedure can provide good local control after resection of the proximal humerus for a primary malignant bone tumour. A smaller tumour, the presence of a continuous fat rim and the identification of the axillary nerve on pre-operative MRI will persuade surgeons to opt for a deltoid resecting procedure. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1244–9

Aims. We previously reported the long-term results of the cementless Duraloc-Profile total hip arthroplasty (THA) system in a 12- to 15-year follow-up study. In this paper, we provide an update on the clinical and radiological results of a previously reported cohort of patients at 23 to 26 years´ follow-up. Patients and Methods. Of the 99 original patients (111 hips), 73 patients (82 hips) with a mean age of 56.8 years (21 to 70) were available for clinical and radiological study at a minimum follow-up of 23 years. There were 40 female patients (44 hips) and 33 male patients (38 hips). Results. All acetabular and femoral components were well fixed and showed signs of bone ingrowth. Nine acetabular components were revised due to wear-osteolysis-related problems and four due to late dislocation. The probability of not having component revision at 25 years was 83.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 74.5 to 91.8; number at risk 41). Acetabular osteolysis was observed in ten hips. The mean femoral head penetration was 1.52 mm (. sd. 0.8) at 15 years and 1.92 mm (. sd. 1.2) at 25 years. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that mean femoral penetration with a value of 0.11 mm/year or more was associated with the appearance of osteolysis. The 25-year Kaplan–Meier survival with different endpoints was 89.9% for acetabular osteolysis (95% CI 83.3 to 96.5), 92.1% for proximal femoral osteolysis (95% CI 86.1 to 98.2), and 75.5% for femoral osteopenia (95% CI 66.5 to 84.5). Conclusion. The Duraloc-Profile THA system showed excellent long-term bone fixation. Nevertheless, monitoring is recommended in order to detect wear and late dislocations in this population that was relatively young at the time of surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:378–385

Clinical prediction algorithms are used to differentiate transient synovitis from septic arthritis. These algorithms typically include the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), although in clinical practice measurement of the C-reactive protein (CRP) has largely replaced the ESR. We evaluated the use of CRP in a predictive algorithm. The records of 311 children with an effusion of the hip, which was confirmed on ultrasound, were reviewed (mean age 5.3 years (0.2 to 15.1)). Of these, 269 resolved without intervention and without long-term sequelae and were considered to have had transient synovitis. The remaining 42 underwent arthrotomy because of suspicion of septic arthritis. Infection was confirmed in 29 (18 had micro-organisms isolated and 11 had a high synovial fluid white cell count). In the remaining 13 no evidence of infection was found and they were also considered to have had transient synovitis. In total 29 hips were categorised as septic arthritis and 282 as transient synovitis. The temperature, weight-bearing status, peripheral white blood cell count and CRP was reviewed in each patient. A CRP > 20 mg/l was the strongest independent risk factor for septic arthritis (odds ratio 81.9, p < 0.001). A multivariable prediction model revealed that only two determinants (weight-bearing status and CRP > 20 mg/l) were independent in differentiating septic arthritis from transient synovitis. Individuals with neither predictor had a < 1% probability of septic arthritis, but those with both had a 74% probability of septic arthritis. A two-variable algorithm can therefore quantify the risk of septic arthritis, and is an excellent negative predictor.

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The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model.

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This study aimed to compare the performance of survival prediction models for bone metastases of the extremities (BM-E) with pathological fractures in an Asian cohort, and investigate patient characteristics associated with survival.

A prospective nation-wide study of knee arthroplasty has been under way in Sweden since October 1975. By the end of 1983, 4505 arthroplasties for osteoarthritis and 3495 for rheumatoid arthritis had been recorded and reviewed one, three and six years after the operation. Using actuarial methods, the probability of the prosthesis remaining in situ after six years was calculated. In osteoarthritis this probability ranged from 65% for hinged prostheses to 90% for medial compartment prostheses. Two-and three-compartment prostheses produced intermediate results with 87% survival. In rheumatoid arthritis the probability varied from 72% for medial compartment prostheses to 90% for two- and three-compartment prostheses. The main reason for failure was loosening of the components, the second most common was infection. The probability of revision for infection by six years was 2% in osteoarthritis and 3% in rheumatoid arthritis. Most revisions were to a three-compartment prosthesis. Knee fusion at primary revision was required in 2% of the cases at six years

In a prospective study, 93 unselected consecutive uncemented hip arthroplasties were performed in 80 patients using the titanium-coated RM acetabular component and the CLS femoral component. The mean age of the patients at operation was 52 years (28 to 81). None were lost to follow-up. In the 23 patients who had died (26 hips) only one acetabular component had been revised. In the 57 living patients (67 hips), 13 such revisions had been performed. Of the 14 revisions, seven were for osteolysis, five for loosening and two for infection. Survival analysis of this implant showed a total probability of survival of 83% (95% confidence interval 73 to 90), with all revisions as the endpoint, and a probability of 94% (95% confidence interval 87 to 98) with revision for aseptic loosening as the endpoint, indicating reliable long-term fixation of the titanium-coated RM acetabular component

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Intra-articular (IA) injection may be used when treating hip osteoarthritis (OA). Common injections include steroids, hyaluronic acid (HA), local anaesthetic, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP). Network meta-analysis allows for comparisons between two or more treatment groups and uses direct and indirect comparisons between interventions. This network meta-analysis aims to compare the efficacy of various IA injections used in the management of hip OA with a follow-up of up to six months.

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We aimed to assess the cumulative risk of total hip arthroplasty (THA) from in situ fixation for slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) after a follow-up of almost 50 years.