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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1266 - 1272
1 Nov 2022
Farrow L Brasnic L Martin C Ward K Adam K Hall AJ Clement ND MacLullich AMJ

Aims. The aim of this study was to examine perioperative blood transfusion practice, and associations with clinical outcomes, in a national cohort of hip fracture patients. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using linked data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit and the Scottish National Blood Transfusion Service between May 2016 and December 2020. All patients aged ≥ 50 years admitted to a Scottish hospital with a hip fracture were included. Assessment of the factors independently associated with red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) during admission was performed, alongside determination of the association between RBCT and hip fracture outcomes. Results. A total of 23,266 individual patient records from 18 hospitals were included. The overall rate of blood transfusion during admission was 28.7% (n = 6,685). There was inter-hospital variation in transfusion rate, ranging from 16.6% to 37.4%. Independent perioperative factors significantly associated with RBCT included older age (90 to 94 years, odds ratio (OR) 3.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.28 to 4.04); p < 0.001), intramedullary fixation (OR 7.15 (95% CI 6.50 to 7.86); p < 0.001), and sliding hip screw constructs (OR 2.34 (95% CI 2.19 to 2.50); p < 0.001). Blood transfusion during admission was significantly associated with higher rates of 30-day mortality (OR 1.35 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.53); p < 0.001) and 60-day mortality (OR 1.54 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.67); p < 0.001), as well as delays to postoperative mobilization, higher likelihood of not returning to their home, and longer length of stay. Conclusion. Blood transfusion after hip fracture was common, although practice varied nationally. RBCT is associated with adverse outcomes, which is most likely a reflection of perioperative anaemia, rather than any causal effect. Use of RBCT does not appear to reverse this effect, highlighting the importance of perioperative blood loss reduction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1266–1272


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 3 | Pages 442 - 448
1 Mar 2021
Nikolaou VS Masouros P Floros T Chronopoulos E Skertsou M Babis GC

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that a single dose of tranexamic acid (TXA) would reduce blood loss and transfusion rates in elderly patients undergoing surgery for a subcapital or intertrochanteric (IT) fracture of the hip. Methods. In this single-centre, randomized controlled trial, elderly patients undergoing surgery for a hip fracture, either hemiarthroplasty for a subcapital fracture or intramedullary nailing for an IT fracture, were screened for inclusion. Patients were randomly allocated to a study group using a sealed envelope. The TXA group consisted of 77 patients, (35 with a subcapital fracture and 42 with an IT fracture), and the control group consisted of 88 patients (29 with a subcapital fracture and 59 with an IT fracture). One dose of 15 mg/kg of intravenous (IV) TXA diluted in 100 ml normal saline (NS,) or one dose of IV placebo 100 ml NS were administered before the incision was made. The haemoglobin (Hb) concentration was measured before surgery and daily until the fourth postoperative day. The primary outcomes were the total blood loss and the rate of transfusion from the time of surgery to the fourth postoperative day. Results. Homogeneity with respect to baseline characteristics was ensured between groups. The mean total blood loss was significantly lower in patients who received TXA (902.4 ml (-279.9 to 2,156.9) vs 1,226.3 ml (-269.7 to 3,429.7); p = 0.003), while the likelihood of requiring a transfusion of at least one unit of red blood cells was reduced by 22%. Subgroup analysis showed that these differences were larger in patients who had an IT fracture compared with those who had a subcapital fracture. Conclusion. Elderly patients who undergo intramedullary nailing for an IT fracture can benefit from a single dose of 15 mg/kg TXA before the onset of surgery. A similar tendency was identified in patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty for a subcapital fracture but not to a statistically significant level. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):442–448


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 88-B, Issue 8 | Pages 1053 - 1059
1 Aug 2006
Foss NB Kehlet H

Our aim was to determine the total blood loss associated with surgery for fracture of the hip and to identify risk factors for increased blood loss. We prospectively studied 546 patients with hip fracture. The total blood loss was calculated on the basis of the haemoglobin difference, the number of transfusions and the estimated blood volume. The hidden blood loss, in excess of that observed during surgery, varied from 547 ml (screws/ pins) to 1473 ml (intramedullary hip nail and screw) and was significantly associated with medical complications and increased hospital stay. The type of surgery, treatment with aspirin, intra-operative hypotension and gastro-intestinal bleeding or ulceration were all independent predictors of blood loss. We conclude that total blood loss after surgery for hip fracture is much greater than that observed intra-operatively. Frequent post-operative measurements of haemoglobin are necessary to avoid anaemia


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 83-B, Issue 6 | Pages 809 - 814
1 Aug 2001
Dawson JS Martel AL Davis TRC

We have investigated whether assessment of blood flow to the proximal scaphoid can be used to predict nonunion in acute fractures of the scaphoid. We studied 32 fractures of the scaphoid one to two weeks after injury, by dynamic fat-suppressed T1-weighted gradient-echo MRI after the intravenous administration of gadopentetate dimeglumine (0.1 mmol/kg body-weight). Steepest slope values (SSV) and percentage enhancement values (%E) were calculated for the distal and proximal fragments and poles. All the fractures were treated by immobilisation in a cast, and union was assessed by CT at 12 weeks. Nonunion occurred in four fractures (12%), and there was no statistically significant difference between the proximal fragment SSV and %E values for the fractures which united and those with nonunion. The difference between the proximal pole SSV and %E values for the union and nonunion groups reached statistical significance (p < 0.05), but with higher enhancement parameters for the nonunion group. Our results suggest that poor proximal vascularity is not an important determinant of union in fractures of the scaphoid


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 79-B, Issue 3 | Pages 441 - 443
1 May 1997
Humzah MD Gilbert PM

Skin cover after below-knee amputation has been extensively discussed. We describe the flaps which are commonly used and discuss their vascular basis in the context of the current knowledge of the fasciocutaneous system. An understanding of this vascular system will enable surgeons to plan and shape flaps for surgical exposure and coverage.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 4 | Pages 449 - 454
15 Mar 2023
Zhang C Wang C Duan N Zhou D Ma T

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and clinical outcome of patients with a femoral shaft fracture and a previous complex post-traumatic femoral malunion who were treated with a clamshell osteotomy and fixation with an intramedullary nail (IMN). Methods. The study involved a retrospective analysis of 23 patients. All had a previous, operatively managed, femoral shaft fracture with malunion due to hardware failure. They were treated with a clamshell osteotomy between May 2015 and March 2020. The mean age was 42.6 years (26 to 62) and 15 (65.2%) were male. The mean follow-up was 2.3 years (1 to 5). Details from their medical records were analyzed. Clinical outcomes were assessed using the quality of correction of the deformity, functional recovery, the healing time of the fracture, and complications. Results. The mean length of time between the initial injury and surgery was 4.5 years (3 to 10). The mean operating time was 2.8 hours (2.05 to 4.4)), and the mean blood loss was 850 ml (650 to 1,020). Complications occurred in five patients (21.7%): two with wound necrosis, and three with deep vein thrombosis. The mean coronal deformity was significantly corrected from 17.78° (SD 4.62°) preoperatively to 1.35° (SD 1.72°) postoperatively (p < 0.001), and the mean sagittal deformity was significantly corrected from 20.65° (SD 5.88°) preoperatively to 1.61° (SD 1.95°; p < 0.001) postoperatively. The mean leg length discrepancy was significantly corrected from 3.57 cm (SD 1.27) preoperatively to 1.13 cm (SD 0.76) postoperatively (p < 0.001). All fractures healed at a mean of seven months (4 to 12) postoperatively. The mean Lower Extremity Functional Scale score improved significantly from 45.4 (SD 9.1) preoperatively to 66.2 (SD 5.5) postoperatively (p < 0.001). Partial cortical nonunion in the deformed segment occurred in eight patients (34.8%) and healed at a mean of 2.4 years (2 to 3) postoperatively. Conclusion. A clamshell osteotomy combined with IMN fixation in the treatment of patients with a femoral shaft fracture and a previous post-traumatic femoral malunion achieved excellent outcomes. Partial cortical nonunions in the deformed segment also healed satisfactorily. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):449–454


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 4 | Pages 401 - 411
1 Apr 2024
Carrothers A O'Leary R Hull P Chou D Alsousou J Queally J Bond SJ Costa ML

Aims. To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment. Methods. Patients were recruited from seven UK NHS centres and randomized to a three-arm pilot trial if aged older than 60 years and had a displaced acetabular fracture. Feasibility outcomes included patients’ willingness to participate, clinicians’ capability to recruit, and dropout rates. The primary clinical outcome measure was the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) at six months. Secondary outcomes were Oxford Hip Score, Disability Rating Index, blood loss, and radiological and mobility assessments. Results. Between December 2017 and December 2019, 60 patients were recruited (median age 77.4 years, range 63.3 to 88.5) (39/21 M/F ratio). At final nine-month follow-up, 4/60 (7%) had withdrawn, 4/60 (7%) had died, and one had been lost to follow-up; a 98% response rate (50/51) was achieved for the EQ-5D questionnaire. Four deaths were recorded during the three-year trial period: three in the non-surgical treatment group and one in the fix-and-replace group. Conclusion. This study has shown a full-scale RCT to be feasible, but will need international recruitment. The Acetabular Fractures in older patients Intervention Trial (AceFIT) has informed the design of a multinational RCT sample size of 1,474 or 1,974 patients for a minimal clinically important difference of 0.06 on EQ-5D, with a power of 0.8 or 0.9, and loss to follow-up of 20%. This observed patient cohort comprises a medically complex group requiring multidisciplinary care; surgeon, anaesthetist, and ortho-geriatrician input is needed to optimize recovery and rehabilitation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):401–411


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 7 | Pages 904 - 911
1 Jul 2020
Sigmund IK Dudareva M Watts D Morgenstern M Athanasou NA McNally MA

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of preoperative serum CRP, white blood cell count (WBC), percentage of neutrophils (%N), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) when using the fracture-related infection (FRI) consensus definition. Methods. A cohort of 106 patients having surgery for suspected septic nonunion after failed fracture fixation were studied. Blood samples were collected preoperatively, and the concentration of serum CRP, WBC, and differential cell count were analyzed. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of diagnostic tests were compared using the z-test. Regression trees were constructed and internally cross-validated to derive a simple diagnostic decision tree. Results. Using the FRI consensus definition, 46 patients (43%) were identified as infected. Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of CRP were 67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 52% to 80%), 61% (95% CI 47% to 74%), and 0.64 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.74); of WBC count were 17% (95% CI 9% to 31%), 95% (95% CI 86% to 99%), and 0.57 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.62); of %N 13% (95% CI 6% to 26%), 87% (95% CI 76% to 93%), and 0.50 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.56); and of NLR 28% (95% CI 17% to 43%), 80% (95% CI 68% to 88%), and 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.63), respectively. A better performance of serum CRP was shown in comparison to the leucocyte count (p = 0.006), %N (p < 0.001), and NLR (p = 0.001). A statistically lower serum CRP level was shown in patients with an infection caused by a low virulence microorganism in comparison to high virulence bacteria (p = 0.008). We found that a simple decision tree approach using only low serum neutrophils (< 3.615 × 10. 9. /l) and low CRP (< 2.45 mg/l) may allow better identification of aseptic cases. Conclusion. The evaluated serum inflammatory markers showed limited diagnostic value in the preoperative diagnosis of FRI when using the uniform FRI Consensus Definition. Therefore, they should remain as suggestive criteria in diagnosing FRI. Although CRP showed a higher performance in comparison to the other serum markers, it is insufficiently accurate to diagnose a septic nonunion, especially when caused by low virulence microorganisms. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):904–911


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 100-B, Issue 2 | Pages 233 - 241
1 Feb 2018
Ohmori T Kitamura T Nishida T Matsumoto T Tokioka T

Aim. There is not adequate evidence to establish whether external fixation (EF) of pelvic fractures leads to a reduced mortality. We used the Japan Trauma Data Bank database to identify isolated unstable pelvic ring fractures to exclude the possibility of blood loss from other injuries, and analyzed the effectiveness of EF on mortality in this group of patients. Patients and Methods. This was a registry-based comparison of 1163 patients who had been treated for an isolated unstable pelvic ring fracture with (386 patients) or without (777 patients) EF. An isolated pelvic ring fracture was defined by an Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) for other injuries of < 3. An unstable pelvic ring fracture was defined as having an AIS ≥ 4. The primary outcome of this study was mortality. A subgroup analysis was carried out for patients who required blood transfusion within 24 hours of arrival in the Emergency Department and those who had massive blood loss (AIS code: 852610.5). Propensity-score matching was used to identify a cohort like the EF and non-EF groups. Results. With the use of propensity-score matching using the completed data, 346 patients were matched. When the propensity-score matching was adjusted, EF was associated with a significantly lower risk of death (p = 0.047). In the subgroup analysis of patients who needed blood transfusion within 24 hours and those who had massive blood loss, EF was associated with a significantly lower risk of death in patients who needed blood transfusion within 24 hours (p = 0.014) and in those with massive blood loss (p = 0.016). Conclusion. The use of EF to treat unstable pelvic ring fractures was associated with a significantly lower risk of death, especially in patients with severe fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:233–41


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 6 | Pages 603 - 612
1 Jun 2024
Ahmad A Egeland EH Dybvik EH Gjertsen J Lie SA Fenstad AM Matre K Furnes O

Aims

This study aimed to compare mortality in trochanteric AO/OTA A1 and A2 fractures treated with an intramedullary nail (IMN) or sliding hip screw (SHS). The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality, with secondary endpoints at 0 to 1, 2 to 7, 8 to 30, 90, and 365 days.

Methods

We analyzed data from 26,393 patients with trochanteric AO/OTA A1 and A2 fractures treated with IMNs (n = 9,095) or SHSs (n = 17,298) in the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register (January 2008 to December 2020). Exclusions were made for patients aged < 60 years, pathological fractures, pre-2008 operations, contralateral hip fractures, fractures other than trochanteric A1/A2, and treatments other than IMNs or SHSs. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses adjusted for type of fracture, age, sex, cognitive impairment, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, and time period were conducted, along with calculations for number needed to harm (NNH).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1369 - 1378
1 Dec 2022
van Rijckevorsel VAJIM de Jong L Verhofstad MHJ Roukema GR

Aims

Factors associated with high mortality rates in geriatric hip fracture patients are frequently unmodifiable. Time to surgery, however, might be a modifiable factor of interest to optimize clinical outcomes after hip fracture surgery. This study aims to determine the influence of postponement of surgery due to non-medical reasons on clinical outcomes in acute hip fracture surgery.

Methods

This observational cohort study enrolled consecutively admitted patients with a proximal femoral fracture, for which surgery was performed between 1 January 2018 and 11 January 2021 in two level II trauma teaching hospitals. Patients with medical indications to postpone surgery were excluded. A total of 1,803 patients were included, of whom 1,428 had surgery < 24 hours and 375 had surgery ≥ 24 hours after admission.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1477 - 1484
1 Dec 2024
Wang Y Shen L Xie D Long H Chen H Wei J Zeng C Lei G

Aims

For displaced femoral neck fractures (FNFs) in geriatric patients, there remains uncertainty regarding the effect of total hip arthroplasty (THA) compared with hemiarthroplasty (HA) in the guidelines. We aimed to compare 90-day surgical readmission, in-hospital complications, and charges between THA and HA in these patients.

Methods

The Hospital Quality Monitoring System was queried from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019 for displaced FNFs in geriatric patients treated with THA or HA. After propensity score matching, which identified 33,849 paired patients, outcomes were compared between THA and HA using logistic and linear regression models.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1256 - 1265
1 Nov 2022
Keene DJ Alsousou J Harrison P O’Connor HM Wagland S Dutton SJ Hulley P Lamb SE Willett K

Aims

To determine whether platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection improves outcomes two years after acute Achilles tendon rupture.

Methods

A randomized multicentre two-arm parallel-group, participant- and assessor-blinded superiority trial was undertaken. Recruitment commenced on 28 July 2015 and two-year follow-up was completed in 21 October 2019. Participants were 230 adults aged 18 years and over, with acute Achilles tendon rupture managed with non-surgical treatment from 19 UK hospitals. Exclusions were insertion or musculotendinous junction injuries, major leg injury or deformity, diabetes, platelet or haematological disorder, medication with systemic corticosteroids, anticoagulation therapy treatment, and other contraindicating conditions. Participants were randomized via a central online system 1:1 to PRP or placebo injection. The main outcome measure was Achilles Tendon Rupture Score (ATRS) at two years via postal questionnaire. Other outcomes were pain, recovery goal attainment, and quality of life. Analysis was by intention-to-treat.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 100-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1234 - 1240
1 Sep 2018
Brady J Hardy BM Yoshino O Buxton A Quail A Balogh ZJ

Aims. Little is known about the effect of haemorrhagic shock and resuscitation on fracture healing. This study used a rabbit model with a femoral osteotomy and fixation to examine this relationship. Materials and Methods. A total of 18 male New Zealand white rabbits underwent femoral osteotomy with intramedullary fixation with ‘shock’ (n = 9) and control (n = 9) groups. Shock was induced in the study group by removal of 35% of the total blood volume 45 minutes before resuscitation with blood and crystalloid. Fracture healing was monitored for eight weeks using serum markers of healing and radiographs. Results. Four animals were excluded due to postoperative complications. The serum concentration of osteocalcin was significantly elevated in the shock group postoperatively (p < 0.0001). There were otherwise no differences with regard to serum markers of bone healing. The callus index was consistently increased in the shock group on anteroposterior (p = 0.0069) and lateral (p = 0.0165) radiographs from three weeks postoperatively. The control group showed an earlier decrease of callus index. Radiographic scores were significantly greater in the control group (p = 0.0025). Conclusion. In a rabbit femoral osteotomy model with intramedullary fixation, haemorrhagic shock and resuscitation produced larger callus but with evidence of delayed remodelling. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1234–40


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1196 - 1200
1 Nov 2023
Parker MJ Chatterjee R Onsa M Cawley S Gurusamy K

Aims

The aim of this study was to report the three-year follow-up for a series of 400 patients with a displaced intracapsular fracture of the hip, who were randomized to be treated with either a cemented polished tapered hemiarthroplasty or an uncemented hydroxyapatite-coated hemiarthroplasty.

Methods

The mean age of the patients was 85 years (58 to 102) and 273 (68%) were female. Follow-up was undertaken by a nurse who was blinded to the hemiarthroplasty that was used, at intervals for up to three years from surgery. The short-term follow-up of these patients at a mean of one year has previously been reported.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1201 - 1205
1 Nov 2023
Farrow L Clement ND Mitchell L Sattar M MacLullich AMJ

Aims

Surgery is often delayed in patients who sustain a hip fracture and are treated with a total hip arthroplasty (THA), in order to await appropriate surgical expertise. There are established links between delay and poorer outcomes in all patients with a hip fracture, but there is little information about the impact of delay in the less frail patients who undergo THA. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of delayed surgery on outcomes in these patients.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit between May 2016 and December 2020. Only patients undergoing THA were included, with categorization according to surgical treatment within 36 hours of admission (≤ 36 hours = ‘acute group’ vs > 36 hours = ‘delayed’ group). Those with delays due to being “medically unfit” were excluded. The primary outcome measure was 30-day survival. Costs were estimated in relation to the differences in the lengths of stay.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 7 | Pages 801 - 807
1 Jul 2023
Dietrich G Terrier A Favre M Elmers J Stockton L Soppelsa D Cherix S Vauclair F

Aims

Tobacco, in addition to being one of the greatest public health threats facing our world, is believed to have deleterious effects on bone metabolism and especially on bone healing. It has been described in the literature that patients who smoke are approximately twice as likely to develop a nonunion following a non-specific bone fracture. For clavicle fractures, this risk is unclear, as is the impact that such a complication might have on the initial management of these fractures.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed for conservatively treated displaced midshaft clavicle fractures. Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Cochrane Library) were searched from inception to 12 May 2022, with supplementary searches in Open Grey, ClinicalTrials.gov, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and Google Scholar. The searches were performed without limits for publication date or languages.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 4 | Pages 412 - 418
1 Apr 2024
Alqarni AG Nightingale J Norrish A Gladman JRF Ollivere B

Aims

Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data.

Methods

We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 7 | Pages 720 - 727
1 Jul 2024
Wu H Wang X Shen J Wei Z Wang S Xu T Luo F Xie Z

Aims

This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with culture-negative limb osteomyelitis patients.

Methods

A total of 1,047 limb osteomyelitis patients aged 18 years or older who underwent debridement and intraoperative culture at our clinic centre from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020 were included. Patient characteristics, infection eradication, and complications were analyzed between culture-negative and culture-positive cohorts.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 6 | Pages 613 - 622
1 Jun 2024
Shen J Wei Z Wu H Wang X Wang S Wang G Luo F Xie Z

Aims

The aim of the present study was to assess the outcomes of the induced membrane technique (IMT) for the management of infected segmental bone defects, and to analyze predictive factors associated with unfavourable outcomes.

Methods

Between May 2012 and December 2020, 203 patients with infected segmental bone defects treated with the IMT were enrolled. The digital medical records of these patients were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with unfavourable outcomes were identified through logistic regression analysis.