Aims. The preoperative grading of chondrosarcomas of bone that accurately predicts surgical management is difficult for surgeons, radiologists, and pathologists. There are often discrepancies in grade between the initial biopsy and the final histology. Recent advances in the use of imaging methods have shown promise in the ability to predict the final grade. The most important clinical distinction is between grade 1 chondrosarcomas, which are amenable to curettage, and resection-grade chondrosarcomas (grade 2 and 3) which require en bloc resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Radiological Aggressiveness Score (RAS) to predict the grade of primary chondrosarcomas in long bones and thus to guide management. Methods. A total of 113 patients with a primary chondrosarcoma of a long bone presenting between January 2001 and December 2021 were identified on retrospective review of a single oncology centre’s prospectively collected database. The nine-parameter RAS included variables from radiographs and MRI scans. The best cut-off of parameters to predict the final grade of chondrosarcoma after resection was determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and this was correlated with the biopsy grade. Results. A RAS of ≥ four parameters was 97.9% sensitive and 90.5% specific in predicting resection-grade chondrosarcoma based on a ROC cut-off derived using the Youden index. Cronbach’s α of 0.897 was derived as the interclass correlation for scoring the lesions by four blinded reviewers who were surgeons. Concordance between resection-grade lesions predicted from the RAS and ROC cut-off with the final grade after resection was 96.46%. Concordance between the biopsy grade and the final grade was 63.8%. However, when the patients were analyzed based on surgical management, the initial biopsy was able to differentiate low-grade from resection-grade chondrosarcomas in 82.9% of biopsies. Conclusion. These findings suggest that the RAS is an accurate method for guiding the surgical management of patients with these tumours, particularly when the initial biopsy results are discordant with the clinical presentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):808–814

Aims. Intra-articular (IA) tumours around the knee are treated with extra-articular (EA) resection, which is associated with poor functional outcomes. We aim to evaluate the accuracy of MRI in predicting IA involvement around the knee. Methods. We identified 63 cases of high-grade sarcomas in or around the distal femur that underwent an EA resection from a prospectively maintained database (January 1996 to April 2020). Suspicion of IA disease was noted in 52 cases, six had IA pathological fracture, two had an effusion, two had prior surgical intervention (curettage/IA intervention), and one had an osseous metastasis in the proximal tibia. To ascertain validity, two musculoskeletal radiologists (R1, R2) reviewed the preoperative imaging (MRI) of 63 consecutive cases on two occasions six weeks apart. The radiological criteria for IA disease comprised evidence of tumour extension within the suprapatellar pouch, intercondylar notch, extension along medial/lateral retinaculum, and presence of IA fracture. The radiological predictions were then confirmed with the final histopathology of the resected specimens. Results. The resection histology revealed 23 cases (36.5%) showing IA disease involvement compared with 40 cases without (62%). The intraobserver variability of R1 was 0.85 (p < 0.001) compared to R2 with κ = 0.21 (p = 0.007). The interobserver variability was κ = 0.264 (p = 0.003). Knee effusion was found to be the most sensitive indicator of IA involvement, with a sensitivity of 91.3% but specificity of only 35%. However, when combined with a pathological fracture, this rose to 97.5% and 100% when disease was visible in Hoffa’s fat pad. Conclusion. MRI imaging can sometimes overestimate IA joint involvement and needs to be correlated with clinical signs. In the light of our findings, we would recommend EA resections when imaging shows effusion combined with either disease in Hoffa’s fat pad or retinaculum, or pathological fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):696–701

Aims. Surgical site infection (SSI) after soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) resection is a serious complication. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the risk factors for SSI after STS resection, and to develop a nomogram that allows patient-specific risk assessment. Methods. A total of 547 patients with STS who underwent tumour resection between 2005 and 2021 were divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort. In the development cohort of 402 patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to screen possible risk factors of SSI. To select risk factors and construct the prediction nomogram, multivariate logistic regression was used. The predictive power of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis in the validation cohort of 145 patients. Results. LASSO regression analysis selected possible risk factors for SSI, including age, diabetes, operating time, skin graft or flap, resected tumour size, smoking, and radiation therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, smoking during the previous year, operating time, and radiation therapy were independent risk factors for SSI. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the development cohort, the incidence of SSI was 4.5% in the low-risk group (risk score < 6.89) and 26.6% in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 6.89; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the incidence of SSI was 2.0% in the low-risk group and 15.9% in the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Conclusion. Our nomogram will enable surgeons to assess the risk of SSI in patients with STS. In patients with high risk of SSI, frequent monitoring and aggressive interventions should be considered to prevent this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):492–500

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

We undertook a prospective study to evaluate the prognostic significance of the serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in predicting the survival of patients with osteosarcoma. The levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 15 patients with osteosarcoma before commencing treatment. The patients were divided into two groups, with a high or a low serum VEGF level, and the incidence of metastases and overall survival rate were compared. No significant relationship was observed between the serum VEGF levels and gender, age, the size of the tumour or the response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Patients with a serum VEGF > 1000 pg/ml had significantly worse survival than those with a level < 1000 pg/ml (p = 0.002). The serum VEGF level may be useful in predicting the prognosis for survival in patients with osteosarcoma

Aims

Iliosacral sarcoma resections have been shown to have high rates of local recurrence (LR) and poor overall survival. There is also no universal classification for the resection of pelvic sarcomas invading the sacrum. This study proposes a novel classification system and analyzes the survival and risk of recurrence, when using this system.

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52

We studied the CT and MR scans, and the histology of 50 patients with primary Ewing’s sarcoma of bone to determine the association between the change in tumour volume and necrosis after chemotherapy, and to ascertain their influence on prognosis. The mean age of the patients was 17 years. The limbs were involved in 40 and the axial bones in ten. The volume of the tumour at diagnosis varied from 31 to 1790 ml. There was a significant relationship between necrosis and the measured change in volume of the tumour after chemotherapy. Progression of the tumour despite chemotherapy was seen only in patients with necrosis of grades 4 to 6. Necrosis significantly influenced survival (p < 0.05), but the effect of change in volume was less significant. Change in volume of the tumour is a good predictor of necrosis induced by chemotherapy. Necrosis is a strong prognostic factor in Ewing’s sarcoma

We considered whether a positive margin occurring after resection of a soft-tissue sarcoma of a limb would affect the incidence of local recurrence. Patients with low-grade liposarcomas were expected to be a low-risk group as were those who had positive margins planned before surgery to preserve critical structures. Two groups, however, were expected to be at a higher risk, namely, patients who had undergone unplanned excision elsewhere with a positive margin on re-excision and those with unplanned positive margins occurring during primary resection.

Of 566 patients in a prospective database, 87 with positive margins after limb-sparing surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy were grouped according to the clinical scenario by an observer blinded to the outcome. The rate of local recurrence differed significantly between the two low- (4.2% and 3.6%) and the two high-risk groups (31.6% and 37.5%). This classification therefore provides useful information about the incidence of local recurrence after positive-margin resection.

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) and develop and validate machine learning algorithms in order to predict five-year cancer-related mortality in these patients. Methods. Demographic, clinicopathological, and treatment variables of limb and trunk STS patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017 were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors significantly associated with five-year cancer-related mortality. Various machine learning models were developed and compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. The model that performed best on the SEER testing data was further assessed to determine the variables most important in its predictive capacity. This model was externally validated using our institutional dataset. Results. A total of 13,646 patients with STS from the SEER database were included, of whom 35.9% experienced five-year cancer-related mortality. The random forest model performed the best overall and identified tumour size as the most important variable when predicting mortality in patients with STS, followed by M stage, histological subtype, age, and surgical excision. Each variable was significant in logistic regression. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.752. Conclusion. This study identified clinically important variables associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk STS, and developed a predictive model that demonstrated good accuracy and predictability. Orthopaedic oncologists may use these findings to further risk-stratify their patients and recommend an optimal course of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):702–710

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and impact of tourniquet use in patients undergoing limb salvage surgery with endoprosthetic reconstruction for a tumour around the knee. Methods. We retrieved data from the Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens in Tumor Surgery (PARITY) trial; specifically, differences in baseline characteristics, surgical details, and postoperative functional outcomes between patients who had undergone surgery under tourniquet and those who had not. A linear regression model was created to evaluate the impact of tourniquet use on postoperative Toronto Extremity Salvage Scores (TESSs) while controlling for confounding variables. A negative-binomial regression model was constructed to explore predictors of postoperative length of stay (LOS). Results. Of the 604 patients enrolled in the PARITY trial, 421 had tumours around the knee joint, of whom 225 (53%) underwent surgery under tourniquet. The tourniquet group was younger (p = 0.014), more likely to undergo surgery for a tumour of the tibia, and had shorter operating times by a mean of 50 minutes (95% confidence interval 30 to 72; p < 0.001). The adjusted linear regression model found that the use of a tourniquet, a shorter operating time, and a higher baseline TESS independently predicted better function at both three- and six-month follow-up. The negative-binomial regression model showed that tourniquet use, shorter operating time, younger age, and intraoperative tranexamic acid administration independently predicted a shorter LOS in hospital. Conclusion. The results of this study show that in patients undergoing resection of a tumour around the knee and endoprosthetic reconstruction, the use of an intraoperative tourniquet is associated with a shorter operating time, a reduced length of stay in hospital, and a better early functional outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(10):1168–1173

Aims. The incidence of bone metastases is between 20% to 75% depending on the type of cancer. As treatment improves, the number of patients who need surgical intervention is increasing. Identifying patients with a shorter life expectancy would allow surgical intervention with more durable reconstructions to be targeted to those most likely to benefit. While previous scoring systems have focused on surgical and oncological factors, there is a need to consider comorbidities and the physiological state of the patient, as these will also affect outcome. The primary aim of this study was to create a scoring system to estimate survival time in patients with bony metastases and to determine which factors may adversely affect this. Methods. This was a retrospective study which included all patients who had presented for surgery with metastatic bone disease. The data collected included patient, surgical, and oncological variables. Univariable and multivariable analysis identified which factors were associated with a survival time of less than six months and less than one year. A model to predict survival based on these factors was developed using Cox regression. Results. A total of 164 patients were included with a median survival time of 1.6 years (interquartile range 0.5 to 3.1) after surgery. On multivariable analysis, a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p < 0.001), a high white cell count (p = 0.002), hyponatraemia (p = 0.001), a preoperative resting heart rate of > 100 bpm (p = 0.052), and the type of primary cancer (p = 0.026) remained significant predictors of reduced survival time. The predictive model developed showed good discrimination and calibration to predict both six- and 12-month survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. Conclusion. In addition to surgical and oncological factors, the level of comorbidity and physiological state of the patient has a significant impact on survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. These factors should be considered when assessing the appropriateness of surgical intervention. This is the first study to examine other patient factors alongside surgical and oncological data to identify a relationship between these and survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1725–1730

Aims. This study aimed to compare the performance of survival prediction models for bone metastases of the extremities (BM-E) with pathological fractures in an Asian cohort, and investigate patient characteristics associated with survival. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 469 patients, who underwent surgery for BM-E between January 2009 and March 2022 at a tertiary hospital in South Korea. Postoperative survival was calculated using the PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models. Model performance was assessed with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis. Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the factors contributing to survival. Results. The SORG model demonstrated the highest discriminatory accuracy with AUC (0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.85)) at 12 months. In calibration analysis, the PATHfx3.0 and OPTIModel models underestimated survival, while the SPRING13 and IOR models overestimated survival. The SORG model exhibited excellent calibration with intercepts of 0.10 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.33) at 12 months. The SORG model also had lower Brier scores than the null score at three and 12 months, indicating good overall performance. Decision curve analysis showed that all five survival prediction models provided greater net benefit than the default strategy of operating on either all or no patients. Rapid growth cancer and low serum albumin levels were associated with three-, six-, and 12-month survival. Conclusion. State-of-art survival prediction models for BM-E (PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models) are useful clinical tools for orthopaedic surgeons in the decision-making process for the treatment in Asian patients, with SORG models offering the best predictive performance. Rapid growth cancer and serum albumin level are independent, statistically significant factors contributing to survival following surgery of BM-E. Further refinement of survival prediction models will bring about informed and patient-specific treatment of BM-E. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):203–211

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of indocyanine green (ICG) staining of bone and soft-tissue tumours, as well as the stability and accuracy of ICG fluorescence imaging in detecting tumour residuals during surgery for bone and soft-tissue tumours. Methods. ICG fluorescence imaging was performed during surgery in 34 patients with bone and soft-tissue tumours. ICG was administered intravenously at a dose of 2 mg/kg over a period of 60 minutes on the day prior to surgery. The tumour stain rate and signal-to-background ratio of each tumour were post hoc analyzed. After tumour resection, the tumour bed was scanned to locate sites with fluorescence residuals, which were subsequently inspected and biopsied. Results. The overall tumour stain rate was 88% (30/34 patients), and specific stain rates included 90% for osteosarcomas and 92% for giant cell tumours. For malignant tumours, the overall stain rate was 94%, while it was 82% for benign tumours. The ICG tumour stain was not influenced by different pathologies, such as malignant versus benign pathology, the reception (or lack thereof) of neoadjuvant chemotherapies, the length of time between drug administration and surgery, the number of doses of denosumab for patients with giant cell tumours, or the tumour response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The overall accuracy rate of successfully predicting tumour residuals using fluorescence was 49% (23/47 pieces of tissue). The accuracy rate after en bloc resection was significantly lower than that after piecemeal resection (16% vs 71%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. A high percentage of bone and soft-tissue tumours can be stained by ICG and the tumour staining with ICG was stable. This approach can be used in both benign and malignant tumours, regardless of whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy is adopted. The technique is also useful to detect tumour residuals in the wound, especially in patients undergoing piecemeal resection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):551–558

Aims. Rotating-hinge knee prostheses are commonly used to reconstruct the distal femur after resection of a tumour, despite the projected long-term burden of reoperation due to complications. Few studies have examined the factors that influence their failure and none, to our knowledge, have used competing risk models to do so. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors for failure of a rotating-hinge knee distal femoral arthroplasty using the Fine-Gray competing risk model. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 209 consecutive patients who, between 1991 and 2016, had undergone resection of the distal femur for tumour and reconstruction using a rotating-hinge knee prosthesis. The study endpoint was failure of the prosthesis, defined as removal of the femoral component, the tibial component, or the bone-implant fixation; major revision (exchange of the femoral component, tibial component, or the bone-implant fixation); or amputation. Results. Multivariate Fine-Gray regression analyses revealed different hazards for each Henderson failure mode: percentage of femoral resection (p = 0.001) and extent of quadriceps muscle resection (p = 0.005) for overall prosthetic failure; extent of quadriceps muscle resection (p = 0.002) and fixation of femoral component (p = 0.011) for type 2 failure (aseptic loosening); age (p = 0.009) and percentage of femoral resection (p = 0.019) for type 3 failure (mechanical failure); and type of joint resection (p = 0.037) for type 4 (infection) were independent predictors. A bone stem ratio of > 2.5 reliably predicted aseptic loosening. Conclusion. We identified independent risk factors for overall and cause-specific prosthetic failure after rotating-hinge knee distal femoral arthroplasty using a competing risk Fine-Gray model. A bone stem ratio > 2.5 reliably predicts aseptic loosening. An accurate knowledge of the risks of distal femoral arthroplasty after resection for tumour assists surgical planning and managing patient expectations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1405–1413

Aims. Controversy exists as to what should be considered a safe resection margin to minimize local recurrence in high-grade pelvic chondrosarcomas (CS). The aim of this study is to quantify what is a safe margin of resection for high-grade CS of the pelvis. Methods. We retrospectively identified 105 non-metastatic patients with high-grade pelvic CS of bone who underwent surgery (limb salvage/amputations) between 2000 and 2018. There were 82 (78%) male and 23 (22%) female patients with a mean age of 55 years (26 to 84). The majority of the patients underwent limb salvage surgery (n = 82; 78%) compared to 23 (22%) who had amputation. In total, 66 (64%) patients were grade 2 CS compared to 38 (36%) grade 3 CS. All patients were assessed for stage, pelvic anatomical classification, type of resection and reconstruction, margin status, local recurrence, distant recurrence, and overall survival. Surgical margins were stratified into millimetres: < 1 mm; > 1 mm but < 2 mm; and > 2 mm. Results. The disease-­specific survival (DSS) at five years was 69% (95% confidence interval (CI) 56% to 81%) and 51% (95% CI 31% to 70%) for grade 2 and 3 CS, respectively (p = 0.092). The local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) at five years was 59% (95% CI 45% to 72%) for grade 2 CS and 42% (95% CI 21% to 63%) for grade 3 CS (p = 0.318). A margin of more than 2 mm was a significant predictor of increased LRFS (p = 0.001). There was a tendency, but without statistical significance, for a > 2 mm margin to be a predictor of improved DSS. Local recurrence (LR) was a highly significant predictor of DSS, analyzed in a competing risk model (p = 0.001). Conclusion. Obtaining wide margins in the pelvis remains challenging for high-grade pelvic CS. On the basis of our study, we conclude that it is necessary to achieve at least a 2 mm margin for optimal oncological outcomes in patients with high-grade CS of the pelvis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1150–1154

Aims. Giant cell tumour of bone (GCTB) is a locally aggressive lesion that is difficult to treat as salvaging the joint can be associated with a high rate of local recurrence (LR). We evaluated the risk factors for tumour relapse after treatment of a GCTB of the limbs. Methods. A total of 354 consecutive patients with a GCTB underwent joint salvage by curettage and reconstruction with bone graft and/or cement or en bloc resection. Patient, tumour, and treatment factors were analyzed for their impact on LR. Patients treated with denosumab were excluded. Results. There were 53 LRs (15%) at a mean 30.5 months (5 to 116). LR was higher after curettage (18.4%) than after resection (4.6%; p = 0.008). Neither pathological fracture (p = 0.240), Campanacci grade (p = 0.734), soft-tissue extension (p = 0.297), or tumour size (p = 0.872) affected the risk of recurrence. Joint salvage was possible in 74% of patients overall (262/354), and 98% after curettage alone (262/267). Of 49 patients with LR after curettage, 44 (90%) underwent repeated curettage and joint salvage. For patients treated by curettage, only age less than 30 years (p = 0.042) and location in the distal radius (p = 0.043) predicted higher LR. The rate of LR did not differ whether cement or bone graft was used (p = 0.753), but may have been reduced by the use of hydrogen peroxide (p = 0.069). Complications occurred in 15.3% of cases (54/354) and did not differ by treatment. Conclusion. Most patients with a GCTB can undergo successful joint salvage by aggressive curettage, even in the presence of a soft-tissue mass, pathological fracture, or a large lesion, with an 18.4% risk of local recurrence. However, 90% of local relapses after curettage can be treated by repeat joint salvage. Maximizing joint salvage is important to optimize long-term function since most patients with a GCTB are young adults. Younger patients and those with distal radius tumours treated with joint-sparing procedures have a higher rate of local relapse and may require more aggressive treatment and closer follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):559–567

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81

Aims. Accurate estimations of the risk of fracture due to metastatic bone disease in the femur is essential in order to avoid both under-treatment and over-treatment of patients with an impending pathological fracture. The purpose of the current retrospective in vivo study was to use CT-based finite element analyses (CTFEA) to identify a clear quantitative differentiating factor between patients who are at imminent risk of fracturing their femur and those who are not, and to identify the exact location of maximal weakness where the fracture is most likely to occur. Methods. Data were collected on 82 patients with femoral metastatic bone disease, 41 of whom did not undergo prophylactic fixation. A total of 15 had a pathological fracture within six months following the CT scan, and 26 were fracture-free during the five months following the scan. The Mirels score and strain fold ratio (SFR) based on CTFEA was computed for all patients. A SFR value of 1.48 was used as the threshold for a pathological fracture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predicted values for Mirels score and SFR predictions were computed for nine patients who fractured and 24 who did not, as well as a comparison of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC of the ROC curves). Results. The sensitivity of SFR was 100% compared with 88% for the Mirels score, and the specificity of SFR was 67% compared with 38% for the Mirels score. The AUC was 0.905 for SFR compared with 0.578 for the Mirels score (p = 0.008). Conclusion. All the patients who sustained a pathological fracture of the femur had an SFR of > 1.48. CTFEA was far better at predicting the risk of fracture and its location accurately compared with the Mirels score. CTFEA is quick and automated and can be incorporated into the protocol of CT scanners. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(5):638–645

Aims

The scapula is a rare site for a primary bone tumour. Only a small number of series have studied patient outcomes after treatment. Previous studies have shown a high rate of recurrence, with functional outcomes determined by the preservation of the glenohumeral joint and deltoid. The purpose of the current study was to report the outcome of patients who had undergone tumour resection that included the scapula.