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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 11 | Pages 997 - 1003
29 Nov 2021
Dean BJF

Aims. Current National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance advises that MRI direct from the emergency department (ED) should be considered for suspected scaphoid fractures. This study reports the current management of suspected scaphoid fractures in the UK and assesses adherence with NICE guidance. Methods. This national cross-sectional study was carried out at 87 NHS centres in the UK involving 122 EDs and 184 minor injuries units (MIUs). The primary outcome was availability of MRI imaging direct from the ED. We also report the specifics of patient management pathways for suspected scaphoid fractures in EDs, MIUs, and orthopaedic services. Overall, 62 of 87 centres (71%) had a guideline for the management of suspected scaphoid fractures. Results. A total of 11 of 87 centres (13%) had MRI directly available from the ED. Overall, 14 centres (17%) used cross-sectional imaging direct from the ED: MRI in 11 (13%), CT in three (3%), and a mixture of MRI/CT in one (1%). Four centres (6%) used cross-sectional imaging direct from the MIU: MRI in three (4%) and CT in two (2%). Of 87 centres’ orthopaedic specialist services, 74 (85%) obtained repeat radiographs, while the most common form of definitive imaging used was MRI in 55 (63%), CT in 16 (19%), mixture of MRI/CT in three (3%), and radiographs in 11 (13%). Conclusion. Only a small minority of centres currently offer MRI directly from the ED for patients with a suspected scaphoid fracture. Further research is needed to investigate the facilitators and barriers to the implementation of NICE guidance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):997–1003


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 4 | Pages 312 - 316
17 Apr 2024
Ryan PJ Duckworth AD McEachan JE Jenkins PJ

Aims. The underlying natural history of suspected scaphoid fractures (SSFs) is unclear and assumed poor. There is an urgent requirement to develop the literature around SSFs to quantify the actual prevalence of intervention following SSF. Defining the risk of intervention following SSF may influence the need for widespread surveillance and screening of SSF injuries, and could influence medicolegal actions around missed scaphoid fractures. Methods. Data on SSF were retrospectively gathered from virtual fracture clinics (VFCs) across a large Scottish Health Board over a four-year period, from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021. The Bluespier Electronic Patient Record System identified any surgical procedure being undertaken in relation to a scaphoid injury over the same time period. Isolating patients who underwent surgical intervention for SSF was performed by cross-referencing the unique patient Community Health Index number for patients who underwent these scaphoid procedures with those seen at VFCs for SSF over this four-year period. Results. In total, 1,739 patients were identified as having had a SSF. Five patients (0.28%) underwent early open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF). One patient (0.06%) developed a nonunion and underwent ORIF with bone grafting. All six patients undergoing surgery were male (p = 0.005). The overall rate of intervention following a SSF was 0.35%. The early intervention rate in those undergoing primary MRI was one (0.36%), compared with three in those without (0.27%) (p > 0.576). Conclusion. Surgical intervention was rare following a SSF and was not required in females. A primary MRI policy did not appear to be associated with any change in primary or secondary intervention. These data are the first and largest in recent literature to quantify the prevalence of surgical intervention following a SSF, and may be used to guide surveillance and screening pathways as well as define medicolegal risk involved in missing a true fracture in SSFs. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):312–316


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 2 | Pages 117 - 122
9 Feb 2024
Chaturvedi A Russell H Farrugia M Roger M Putti A Jenkins PJ Feltbower S

Aims. Occult (clinical) injuries represent 15% of all scaphoid fractures, posing significant challenges to the clinician. MRI has been suggested as the gold standard for diagnosis, but remains expensive, time-consuming, and is in high demand. Conventional management with immobilization and serial radiography typically results in multiple follow-up attendances to clinic, radiation exposure, and delays return to work. Suboptimal management can result in significant disability and, frequently, litigation. Methods. We present a service evaluation report following the introduction of a quality-improvement themed, streamlined, clinical scaphoid pathway. Patients are offered a removable wrist splint with verbal and written instructions to remove it two weeks following injury, for self-assessment. The persistence of pain is the patient’s guide to ‘opt-in’ and to self-refer for a follow-up appointment with a senior emergency physician. On confirmation of ongoing signs of clinical scaphoid injury, an urgent outpatient ‘fast’-wrist protocol MRI scan is ordered, with instructions to maintain wrist immobilization. Patients with positive scan results are referred for specialist orthopaedic assessment via a virtual fracture clinic. Results. From February 2018 to January 2019, there were 442 patients diagnosed as clinical scaphoid fractures. 122 patients (28%) self-referred back to the emergency department at two weeks. Following clinical review, 53 patients were discharged; MRI was booked for 69 patients (16%). Overall, six patients (< 2% of total; 10% of those scanned) had positive scans for a scaphoid fracture. There were no known missed fractures, long-term non-unions or malunions resulting from this pathway. Costs were saved by avoiding face-to-face clinical review and MRI scanning. Conclusion. A patient-focused opt-in approach is safe and effective to managing the suspected occult (clinical) scaphoid fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):117–122


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 6 | Pages 447 - 453
1 Jun 2021
Dean BJF Little C Riley ND Sellon E Sheehan W Burford J Hormbrey P Costa ML

Aims. To determine the role of early MRI in the management of suspected scaphoid fractures. Methods. A total of 337 consecutive patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) following wrist trauma over a 12-month period were prospectively included in this service evaluation project. MRI was not required in 62 patients with clear diagnoses, and 17 patients were not managed as per pathway, leaving a total of 258 patients with normal scaphoid series radiographs who were then referred directly from ED for an acute wrist MRI scan. Patient demographics, clinical details, outcomes, and complications were recorded at a minimum of a year following injury. Results. The median time from injury to ED presentation was one day and the median number of positive clinical signs was two out of three (snuffbox tenderness, tubercle tenderness, pain on telescoping). Of 258 patients referred for acute MRI, 208 scans were performed as 50 patients either did not tolerate (five patients) or did not attend their scan (45 patients). MRI scans demonstrated scaphoid fracture (13%), fracture of another bone (22%), scaphoid contusion (6%), other contusion/ligamentous injury (20%), or solely degenerative pathology (10%). Only 29% of scans showed no abnormality. Almost 50% of those undergoing MRI (100 patients) were discharged by ED with advice, with only one re-presentation. Of the 27 undisplaced occult scaphoid fractures, despite prompt cast immobilization, two experienced delayed union which was successfully treated with surgery. Conclusion. The use of MRI direct from ED enables prompt diagnosis and the early discharge of a large proportion of patients with normal radiographs following wrist trauma. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(6):447–453


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 7 | Pages 515 - 521
12 Jul 2021
Crookes PF Cassidy RS Machowicz A Hill JC McCaffrey J Turner G Beverland D

Aims. We studied the outcomes of hip and knee arthroplasties in a high-volume arthroplasty centre to determine if patients with morbid obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m. 2. ) had unacceptably worse outcomes as compared to those with BMI < 40 kg/m. 2. . Methods. In a two-year period, 4,711 patients had either total hip arthroplasty (THA; n = 2,370), total knee arthroplasty (TKA; n = 2,109), or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA; n = 232). Of these patients, 392 (8.3%) had morbid obesity. We compared duration of operation, anaesthetic time, length of stay (LOS), LOS > three days, out of hours attendance, emergency department attendance, readmission to hospital, return to theatre, and venous thromboembolism up to 90 days. Readmission for wound infection was recorded to one year. Oxford scores were recorded preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. Results. On average, the morbidly obese had longer operating times (63 vs 58 minutes), longer anaesthetic times (31 vs 28 minutes), increased LOS (3.7 vs 3.5 days), and significantly more readmissions for wound infection (1.0% vs 0.3%). There were no statistically significant differences in either suspected or confirmed venous thromboembolism. Improvement in Oxford scores were equivalent. Conclusion. Although morbidly obese patients had less favourable outcomes, we do not feel that the magnitude of difference is clinically significant when applied to an individual, particularly when improvement in Oxford scores were unrelated to BMI. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):515–521


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 568 - 575
18 Sep 2020
Dayananda KSS Mercer ST Agarwal R Yasin T Trickett RW

Aims. COVID-19 necessitated abrupt changes in trauma service delivery. We compare the demographics and outcomes of patients treated during lockdown to a matched period from 2019. Findings have important implications for service development. Methods. A split-site service was introduced, with a COVID-19 free site treating the majority of trauma patients. Polytrauma, spinal, and paediatric trauma patients, plus COVID-19 confirmed or suspicious cases, were managed at another site. Prospective data on all trauma patients undergoing surgery at either site between 16 March 2020 and 31 May 2020 was collated and compared with retrospective review of the same period in 2019. Patient demographics, injury, surgical details, length of stay (LOS), COVID-19 status, and outcome were compared. Results. There were 1,004 urgent orthopaedic trauma patients (604 in 2019; 400 in 2020). Significant reductions in time to theatre and LOS stay were observed. COVID-19 positive status was confirmed in 4.5% (n = 18). The COVID-19 mortality rate was 1.8% (n = 7). Day-case surgery comprised 47.8% (n = 191), none testing positive for COVID-19 or developing clinically significant COVID-19 symptoms requiring readmission, at a minimum of 17 days follow-up. Conclusion. The novel split-site service, segregating suspected or confirmed COVID-19 cases, minimized onward transmission and demonstrated improved outcomes regarding time to surgery and LOS, despite altered working patterns and additional constraints. Day-surgery pathways appear safe regarding COVID-19 transmission. Lessons learned require dissemination and should be sustained in preparation for a potential second wave or, the return of a “normal” non-COVID workload. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:568–575


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 11 | Pages 832 - 838
3 Nov 2023
Pichler L Li Z Khakzad T Perka C Pumberger M Schömig F

Aims

Implant-related postoperative spondylodiscitis (IPOS) is a severe complication in spine surgery and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. With growing knowledge in the field of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), equivalent investigations towards the management of implant-related infections of the spine are indispensable. To our knowledge, this study provides the largest description of cases of IPOS to date.

Methods

Patients treated for IPOS from January 2006 to December 2020 were included. Patient demographics, parameters upon admission and discharge, radiological imaging, and microbiological results were retrieved from medical records. CT and MRI were analyzed for epidural, paravertebral, and intervertebral abscess formation, vertebral destruction, and endplate involvement. Pathogens were identified by CT-guided or intraoperative biopsy, intraoperative tissue sampling, or implant sonication.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 10 | Pages 944 - 952
25 Oct 2024
Deveza L El Amine MA Becker AS Nolan J Hwang S Hameed M Vaynrub M

Aims

Treatment of high-grade limb bone sarcoma that invades a joint requires en bloc extra-articular excision. MRI can demonstrate joint invasion but is frequently inconclusive, and its predictive value is unknown. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of direct and indirect radiological signs of intra-articular tumour extension and the performance characteristics of MRI findings of intra-articular tumour extension.

Methods

We performed a retrospective case-control study of patients who underwent extra-articular excision for sarcoma of the knee, hip, or shoulder from 1 June 2000 to 1 November 2020. Radiologists blinded to the pathology results evaluated preoperative MRI for three direct signs of joint invasion (capsular disruption, cortical breach, cartilage invasion) and indirect signs (e.g. joint effusion, synovial thickening). The discriminatory ability of MRI to detect intra-articular tumour extension was determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 6 | Pages 464 - 478
3 Jun 2024
Boon A Barnett E Culliford L Evans R Frost J Hansen-Kaku Z Hollingworth W Johnson E Judge A Marques EMR Metcalfe A Navvuga P Petrie MJ Pike K Wylde V Whitehouse MR Blom AW Matharu GS

Aims

During total knee replacement (TKR), surgeons can choose whether or not to resurface the patella, with advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Recently, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended always resurfacing the patella, rather than never doing so. NICE found insufficient evidence on selective resurfacing (surgeon’s decision based on intraoperative findings and symptoms) to make recommendations. If effective, selective resurfacing could result in optimal individualized patient care. This protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of primary TKR with always patellar resurfacing compared to selective patellar resurfacing.

Methods

The PAtellar Resurfacing Trial (PART) is a patient- and assessor-blinded multicentre, pragmatic parallel two-arm randomized superiority trial of adults undergoing elective primary TKR for primary osteoarthritis at NHS hospitals in England, with an embedded internal pilot phase (ISRCTN 33276681). Participants will be randomly allocated intraoperatively on a 1:1 basis (stratified by centre and implant type (cruciate-retaining vs cruciate-sacrificing)) to always resurface or selectively resurface the patella, once the surgeon has confirmed sufficient patellar thickness for resurfacing and that constrained implants are not required. The primary analysis will compare the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) one year after surgery. Secondary outcomes include patient-reported outcome measures at three months, six months, and one year (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, OKS, EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire, patient satisfaction, postoperative complications, need for further surgery, resource use, and costs). Cost-effectiveness will be measured for the lifetime of the patient. Overall, 530 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect a four-point difference in OKS between the groups one year after surgery, assuming up to 40% resurfacing in the selective group.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 10 | Pages 832 - 836
4 Oct 2024
Kayani B Mancino F Baawa-Ameyaw J Roussot MA Haddad FS

Aims

The outcomes of patients with unexpected positive cultures (UPCs) during revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remain unknown. The objectives of this study were to establish the prevalence and infection-free implant survival in UPCs during presumed aseptic single-stage revision THA and TKA at mid-term follow-up.

Methods

This study included 297 patients undergoing presumed aseptic single-stage revision THA or TKA at a single treatment centre. All patients with at least three UPCs obtained during revision surgery were treated with minimum three months of oral antibiotics following revision surgery. The prevalence of UPCs and causative microorganisms, the recurrence of periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs), and the infection-free implant survival were established at minimum five years’ follow-up (5.1 to 12.3).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 10 | Pages 742 - 749
6 Oct 2023
Mabrouk A Abouharb A Stewart G Palan J Pandit H

Aims

Prophylactic antibiotic regimens for elective primary total hip and knee arthroplasty vary widely across hospitals and trusts in the UK. This study aimed to identify antibiotic prophylaxis regimens currently in use for elective primary arthroplasty across the UK, establish variations in antibiotic prophylaxis regimens and their impact on the risk of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in the first-year post-index procedure, and evaluate adherence to current international consensus guidance.

Methods

The guidelines for the primary and alternative recommended prophylactic antibiotic regimens in clean orthopaedic surgery (primary arthroplasty) for 109 hospitals and trusts across the UK were sought by searching each trust and hospital’s website (intranet webpages), and by using the MicroGuide app. The mean cost of each antibiotic regimen was calculated using price data from the British National Formulary (BNF). Regimens were then compared to the 2018 Philadelphia Consensus Guidance, to evaluate adherence to international guidance.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 6 | Pages 457 - 462
26 Jun 2023
Bredgaard Jensen C Gromov K Petersen PB Jørgensen CC Kehlet H Troelsen A

Aims

Medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (mUKA) is an advised treatment for anteromedial knee osteoarthritis. While long-term survival after mUKA is well described, reported incidences of short-term surgical complications vary and the effect of surgical usage on complications is less established. We aimed to describe the overall occurrence and treatment of surgical complications within 90 days of mUKA, as well as occurrence in high-usage centres compared to low-usage centres.

Methods

mUKAs performed in eight fast-track centres from February 2010 to June 2018 were included from the Lundbeck Foundation Centre for Fast-track Hip and Knee Replacement Database. All readmissions within 90 days of surgery underwent chart review and readmissions related to the surgical wound or the prosthesis were recorded. Centres were categorized as high-usage centres when using mUKA in ≥ 20% of annual knee arthroplasties. The occurrence of complications between high- and low-usage centres were compared using Fisher’s exact test.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 621 - 627
1 Aug 2024
Walter N Loew T Hinterberger T Alt V Rupp M

Aims

Fracture-related infections (FRIs) are a devastating complication of fracture management. However, the impact of FRIs on mental health remains understudied. The aim of this study was a longitudinal evaluation of patients’ psychological state, and expectations for recovery comparing patients with recurrent FRI to those with primary FRI.

Methods

A prospective longitudinal study was conducted at a level 1 trauma centre from January 2020 to December 2022. In total, 56 patients treated for FRI were enrolled. The ICD-10 symptom rating (ISR) and an expectation questionnaire were assessed at five timepoints: preoperatively, one month postoperatively, and at three, six, and 12 months.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 8 | Pages 621 - 627
22 Aug 2023
Fishley WG Paice S Iqbal H Mowat S Kalson NS Reed M Partington P Petheram TG

Aims

The rate of day-case total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the UK is currently approximately 0.5%. Reducing length of stay allows orthopaedic providers to improve efficiency, increase operative throughput, and tackle the rising demand for joint arthroplasty surgery and the COVID-19-related backlog. Here, we report safe delivery of day-case TKA in an NHS trust via inpatient wards with no additional resources.

Methods

Day-case TKAs, defined as patients discharged on the same calendar day as surgery, were retrospectively reviewed with a minimum follow-up of six months. Analysis of hospital and primary care records was performed to determine readmission and reattendance rates. Telephone interviews were conducted to determine patient satisfaction.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 10 | Pages 728 - 734
1 Oct 2023
Fokkema CB Janssen L Roumen RMH van Dijk WA

Aims

In the Netherlands, general practitioners (GPs) can request radiographs. After a radiologically diagnosed fracture, patients are immediately referred to the emergency department (ED). Since 2020, the Máxima Medical Centre has implemented a new care pathway for minor trauma patients, referring them immediately to the traumatology outpatient clinic (OC) instead of the ED. We investigated whether this altered care pathway leads to a reduction in healthcare consumption and concomitant costs.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, patients were included if a radiologist diagnosed a fracture on a radiograph requested by the GP from August to October 2019 (control group) or August to October 2020 (research group), on weekdays between 8.30 am and 4.00 pm. The study compared various outcomes between groups, including the length of the initial hospital visit, frequency of hospital visits and medical procedures, extent of imaging, and healthcare expenses.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 1 | Pages 9 - 19
16 Jan 2024
Dijkstra H van de Kuit A de Groot TM Canta O Groot OQ Oosterhoff JH Doornberg JN

Aims

Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool.

Methods

A systematic search screening 3,252 studies identified 45 ML-based prediction models in orthopaedic trauma up to January 2023. The TRIPOD statement assessed transparent reporting and the PROBAST tool the risk of bias.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 688 - 696
22 Aug 2024
Hanusrichter Y Gebert C Steinbeck M Dudda M Hardes J Frieler S Jeys LM Wessling M

Aims

Custom-made partial pelvis replacements (PPRs) are increasingly used in the reconstruction of large acetabular defects and have mainly been designed using a triflange approach, requiring extensive soft-tissue dissection. The monoflange design, where primary intramedullary fixation within the ilium combined with a monoflange for rotational stability, was anticipated to overcome this obstacle. The aim of this study was to evaluate the design with regard to functional outcome, complications, and acetabular reconstruction.

Methods

Between 2014 and 2023, 79 patients with a mean follow-up of 33 months (SD 22; 9 to 103) were included. Functional outcome was measured using the Harris Hip Score and EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D). PPR revisions were defined as an endpoint, and subgroups were analyzed to determine risk factors.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 1 | Pages 69 - 77
25 Jan 2024
Achten J Appelbe D Spoors L Peckham N Kandiyali R Mason J Ferguson D Wright J Wilson N Preston J Moscrop A Costa M Perry DC

Aims

The management of fractures of the medial epicondyle is one of the greatest controversies in paediatric fracture care, with uncertainty concerning the need for surgery. The British Society of Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery prioritized this as their most important research question in paediatric trauma. This is the protocol for a randomized controlled, multicentre, prospective superiority trial of operative fixation versus nonoperative treatment for displaced medial epicondyle fractures: the Surgery or Cast of the EpicoNdyle in Children’s Elbows (SCIENCE) trial.

Methods

Children aged seven to 15 years old inclusive, who have sustained a displaced fracture of the medial epicondyle, are eligible to take part. Baseline function using the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) upper limb score, pain measured using the Wong Baker FACES pain scale, and quality of life (QoL) assessed with the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire for younger patients (EQ-5D-Y) will be collected. Each patient will be randomly allocated (1:1, stratified using a minimization algorithm by centre and initial elbow dislocation status (i.e. dislocated or not-dislocated at presentation to the emergency department)) to either a regimen of the operative fixation or non-surgical treatment.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 11 | Pages 889 - 898
23 Nov 2023
Clement ND Fraser E Gilmour A Doonan J MacLean A Jones BG Blyth MJG

Aims

To perform an incremental cost-utility analysis and assess the impact of differential costs and case volume on the cost-effectiveness of robotic arm-assisted unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (rUKA) compared to manual (mUKA).

Methods

This was a five-year follow-up study of patients who were randomized to rUKA (n = 64) or mUKA (n = 65). Patients completed the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) preoperatively, and at three months and one, two, and five years postoperatively, which was used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Costs for the primary and additional surgery and healthcare costs were calculated.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 168 - 181
14 Mar 2023
Dijkstra H Oosterhoff JHF van de Kuit A IJpma FFA Schwab JH Poolman RW Sprague S Bzovsky S Bhandari M Swiontkowski M Schemitsch EH Doornberg JN Hendrickx LAM

Aims

To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials.

Methods

This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration).