Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306

Aims. The aim of this study was to report health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and joint-specific function in patients waiting for total hip or knee arthroplasty surgery (THA or TKA) in Northern Ireland, compared to published literature and a matched normal population. Secondary aims were to report emergency department (ED) and out-of-hours general practitioner (OOH GP) visits, new prescriptions of strong opioids, and new prescriptions of antidepressants while waiting. Methods. This was a cohort study of 991 patients on the waiting list for arthroplasty in a single Northern Ireland NHS trust: 497 on the waiting list for ≤ three months; and 494 waiting ≥ three years. Postal surveys included the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), and Oxford Hip and Knee scores to assess HRQoL and joint-specific function. Electronic records determined prescriptions since addition to the waiting list and patient attendances at OOH GP/EDs. Results. Overall, 712/991 (71.8%) responded at ≤ three months for THA (n = 164) and TKA (n = 199), and ≥ three years for THA (n = 88) and TKA (n = 261). The median EQ-5D-5L score in those waiting ≤ three months was 0.155 (interquartile range (IQR) -0.118 to 0.375) and 0.189 (IQR -0.130 to 0.377) for ≥ three years. Matched controls had a median EQ-5D-5L 0.837 (IQR 0.728 to 1.000). Compared to matched controls, EQ-5D-5L scores were significantly lower in both waiting cohorts (p < 0.001) with significant differences found in every domain. Negative scores, indicating a state “worse than death”, were present in 40% at ≤ three months and 38% at ≥ three years. Patients waiting ≥ three years had significantly more opioid (28.4% vs 15.2%; p < 0.001) and antidepressant prescriptions (15.2% vs 9.9%; p = 0.034) and significantly more joint-related attendances at unscheduled care (11.7% vs 0% with ≥ one ED attendance (p < 0.001) and (25.5% vs 2.5% ≥ one OOH GP attendance (p < 0.001)). Conclusion. Patients on waiting lists in Northern Ireland are severely disabled with the worst HRQoL and functional scores studied. The lack of deterioration in EQ-5D-5L and joint-specific scores between patients waiting ≤ three months and ≥ three years likely reflects floor effects of these scores. Prolonged waits were associated with increased dependence on strong opiates, depression, and attendances at unscheduled care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):783–794

Aims. We reviewed all patients who sustained a fracture of the hip and were treated in Northern Ireland over a period of 15 years to identify trends in incidence, the demographics of the patients, the rates of mortality, the configuration of the fracture and the choice of implant. Patients and Methods. Since 01 January 2001 data about every fracture of the hip sustained in an adult have been collected centrally in Northern Ireland. All adults with such a fracture between 2000 and 2015 were included in the study. Temporal changes in their demographics, the mode of treatment, and outcomes including mortality were analysed. Results. The incidence of fractures of the hip, in Northern Ireland, rose from 54 in 100 000 in 2000 to 86 in 100 000 in 2015. If these trends continue, we predict this rising to 128 in 100 000 in 2030. We found that these patients are becoming older and increasingly frail, as assessed by the American Association of Anesthesiology grade. Complex extracapsular fractures have become more common since 2009, which may explain the increased use of cephalomedullary nails. Despite increasing frailty, the 30-day and 12-month rates of mortality fell significantly (p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. Fractures of the hip are becoming more common and more complex in an aging, increasingly frail population. We expect these trends to continue. This will place an increasing economic and clinical strain on healthcare systems. Forward planning is essential to put systems in place that can deal with the increasing demand. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1223–31

Aims. This study describes the variation in the annual volumes of revision hip arthroplasty (RHA) undertaken by consultant surgeons nationally, and the rate of accrual of RHA and corresponding primary hip arthroplasty (PHA) volume for new consultants entering practice. Methods. National Joint Registry (NJR) data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man were received for 84,816 RHAs and 818,979 PHAs recorded between April 2011 and December 2019. RHA data comprised all revision procedures, including first-time revisions of PHA and any subsequent re-revisions recorded in public and private healthcare organizations. Annual procedure volumes undertaken by the responsible consultant surgeon in the 12 months prior to every index procedure were determined. We identified a cohort of ‘new’ HA consultants who commenced practice from 2012 and describe their rate of accrual of PHA and RHA experience. Results. The median annual consultant RHA volume, averaged across all cases, was 21 (interquartile range (IQR) 11 to 34; range 0 to 181). Of 1,695 consultants submitting RHA cases within the study period, the top 20% of surgeons by annual volume performed 74.2% of total RHA case volume. More than half of all consultants who had ever undertaken a RHA maintained an annual volume of just one or fewer RHA, however, collectively contributed less than 3% of the total RHA case volume. Consultant PHA and RHA volumes were positively correlated. Lower-volume surgeons were more likely to undertake RHA for urgent indications (such as infection) as a proportion of their practice, and to do so on weekends and public holidays. Conclusion. The majority of RHAs were undertaken by higher-volume surgeons. There was considerable variation in RHA volumes by indication, day of the week, and between consultants nationally. The rate of accrual of RHA experience by new consultants is low, and has important implications for establishing an experienced RHA consultant workforce. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1060–1069

It has been suggested that Perthes’ disease is more prevalent in urban areas, and that the risk increases with deprivation. We present the findings of a preliminary analysis of Perthes’ disease in Northern Ireland, which is shown to have one of the highest national annual rates of incidence in the world (11.6 per 100 000). Of the 313 children diagnosed over a seven-year period, 311 were allocated to the enumeration districts of the 1991 census, thus allowing the incidence to be calculated using both spatial and non-spatial aggregation. The cases were grouped according to the size of the settlement from highly urbanised to open countryside and by level of area deprivation. While the incidence of Perthes’ disease was found to be associated with indicators of the level of deprivation for areas, there was no evidence to suggest that there was an increased risk in urban areas; the highest rate was found in the most deprived rural category

1. In Northern Ireland a campaign to eradicate congenital dislocation of the hip by neonatal demonstration of abnormal laxity and early splintage has been reviewed. The number of live births in the area covered is approximately 30,000 per annum. 2. The results to date suggest that the problem has been greatly over-simplified. The number of established dislocations has not fallen appreciably. 3. Failures have occurred both in early diagnosis and in early treatment. 4. To help close the diagnostic net all children should be screened again during the first year. Infants born by breech presentation and infants with a family history of dislocation should have radiographs taken in the early months, even if clinical tests are negative. 5. With regard to neonatal treatment, early splintage has failed to prevent established dislocation in about 2·4 per cent of the hips so treated. How to detect such resistant cases is an important problem

Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) should be diagnosed as early as possible to optimise treatment. The current United Kingdom recommendations for the selective screening of DDH include a clinical examination at birth and at six weeks. In Northern Ireland babies continue to have an assessment by a health visitor at four months of age. As we continue to see late presentations of DDH, beyond one year of age, we hypothesised that a proportion had missed an opportunity for earlier diagnosis. We expect those who presented to our service with Tonnis grade III or IV hips and decreased abduction would have had clinical signs at their earlier assessments.

We performed a retrospective review of all patients born in Northern Ireland between 2008 and 2010 who were diagnosed with DDH after their first birthday. There were 75 856 live births during the study period of whom 645 children were treated for DDH (8.5 per 1000). The minimum follow-up of our cohort from birth, to detect late presentation, was four years and six months. Of these, 32 children (33 hips) were diagnosed after their first birthday (0.42 per 1000).

With optimum application of our selective screening programme 21 (65.6%) of these children had the potential for an earlier diagnosis, which would have reduced the incidence of late diagnosis to 0.14 per 1000. As we saw a peak in diagnosis between three and five months our findings support the continuation of the four month health visitor check. Our study adds further information to the debate regarding selective versus universal screening.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1572–6.

Arthroplasty registries are important for the surveillance of joint replacements and the evaluation of outcome. Independent validation of registry data ensures high quality. The ability for orthopaedic implant retrieval centres to validate registry data is not known. We analysed data from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales and Northern Ireland (NJR) for primary metal-on-metal hip arthroplasties performed between 2003 and 2013. Records were linked to the London Implant Retrieval Centre (RC) for validation. A total of 67 045 procedures on the NJR and 782 revised pairs of components from the RC were included. We were able to link 476 procedures (60.9%) recorded with the RC to the NJR successfully. However, 306 procedures (39.1%) could not be linked. The outcome recorded by the NJR (as either revised, unrevised or death) for a primary procedure was incorrect in 79 linked cases (16.6%). The rate of registry-retrieval linkage and correct assignment of outcome code improved over time. The rates of error for component reference numbers on the NJR were as follows: femoral head category number 14/229 (5.0%); femoral head batch number 13/232 (5.3%); acetabular component category number 2/293 (0.7%) and acetabular component batch number 24/347 (6.5%).

Registry-retrieval linkage provided a novel means for the validation of data, particularly for component fields. This study suggests that NJR reports may underestimate rates of revision for many types of metal-on-metal hip replacement. This is topical given the increasing scope for NJR data. We recommend a system for continuous independent evaluation of the quality and validity of NJR data.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:10–18.

Aims. Our primary aim was to establish the proportion of female orthopaedic consultants who perform arthroplasty via cases submitted to the National Joint Registry (NJR), which covers England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and Guernsey. Secondary aims included comparing time since specialist registration, private practice participation, and number of hospitals worked in between male and female surgeons. Methods. Publicly available data from the NJR was extracted on the types of arthroplasty performed by each surgeon, and the number of procedures of each type undertaken. Each surgeon was cross-referenced with the General Medical Council (GMC) website, using GMC number to extract surgeon demographic data. These included sex, region of practice, and dates of full and specialist registration. Results. Of 2,895 surgeons contributing to the NJR in 2023, 102 (4%) were female. The highest proportions of female surgeons were among those who performed elbow (n = 25; 5%), shoulder (n = 24; 4%), and ankle (n = 8; 4%) arthroplasty. Hip (n = 66; 3%) and knee arthroplasty (n = 39; 2%) had the lowest female representation. Female surgeons had been practising for a median of 10.4 years since specialist registration compared to 13.7 years for males (p < 0.001). Northern Ireland was the region with the highest proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons (8%). A greater proportion of male surgeons worked in private practice (63% vs 24%; p < 0.001) and in multiple hospitals (74% vs 40%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Only 4% of surgeons currently contributing cases to the NJR are female, with the highest proportion performing elbow arthroplasty (5%). Female orthopaedic surgeons in the NJR are earlier in their careers than male surgeons, and are less involved in private practice. There is a wide geographical variation in the proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):637–643

Aims. The overall aim of this study was to determine the impact of deprivation with regard to quality of life, demographics, joint-specific function, attendances for unscheduled care, opioid and antidepressant use, having surgery elsewhere, and waiting times for surgery on patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Postal surveys were sent to 1,001 patients on the waiting list for THA or TKA in a single Northern Ireland NHS Trust, which consisted of the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), and Oxford Hip and Knee Scores. Electronic records determined prescriptions since addition to the waiting list and out-of-hour GP and emergency department attendances. Deprivation quintiles were determined by the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017 using postcodes of home addresses. Results. Overall, 707 postal surveys were returned, of which 277 (39.2%) reported negative “worse than death” EQ-5D scores and 219 (21.9%) reported the consumption of strong opioids. Those from the least deprived quintile 5 had a significantly better EQ-5D index (median 0.223 (interquartile range (IQR) -0.080 to 0.503) compared to those in the most deprived quintiles 1 (median 0.049 (IQR -0.199 to 0.242), p = 0.004), 2 (median 0.076 (IQR -0.160 to 0.277; p = 0.010), and 3 (median 0.076 (IQR-0.153 to 0.301; p = 0.010). Opioid use was significantly greater in the most deprived quintile 1 compared to all other quintiles (45/146 (30.8%) vs 174/809 (21.5%); odds ratio 1.74 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.57; p = 0.005). Conclusion. More deprived patients have worse health-related quality of life and greater opioid use while waiting for THA and TKA than more affluent patients. For patients awaiting surgery, more information and alternative treatment options should be available. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(5):444–451

Aims. To determine the likelihood of achieving a successful closed reduction (CR) of a dislocated hip in developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) after failed Pavlik harness treatment We report the rate of avascular necrosis (AVN) and the need for further surgical procedures. Methods. Data was obtained from the Northern Ireland DDH database. All children who underwent an attempted closed reduction between 2011 and 2016 were identified. Children with a dislocated hip that failed Pavlik harness treatment were included in the study. Successful closed reduction was defined as a hip that reduced in theatre and remained reduced. Most recent imaging was assessed for the presence of AVN using the Kalamchi and MacEwen classification. Results. There were 644 dislocated hips in 543 patients initially treated in Pavlik harness. In all, 67 hips failed Pavlik harness treatment and proceeded to arthrogram (CR) under general anaesthetic at an average age of 180 days. The number of hips that were deemed reduced in theatre was 46 of the 67 (69%). A total of 11 hips re-dislocated and underwent open reduction, giving a true successful CR rate of 52%. For the total cohort of 67 hips that went to theatre for arthrogram and attempted CR, five (7%) developed clinically significant AVN at an average follow-up of four years and one month, while none of the 35 hips whose reduction was truly successful developed clinically significant AVN. Conclusion. The likelihood of a successful closed reduction of a dislocated hip in the Northern Ireland population, which has failed Pavlik harness treatment, is 52% with a clinically significant AVN rate of 7%. As such, we continue to advocate closed reduction under general anaesthetic for the hip that has failed Pavlik harness. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):594–598

Aims. To monitor the performance of services for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) in Northern Ireland and identify potential improvements to enhance quality of service and plan for the future. Methods. This was a prospective observational study, involving all infants treated for DDH between 2011 and 2017. Children underwent clinical assessment and radiological investigation as per the regional surveillance policy. The regional radiology data was interrogated to quantify the use of ultrasound and ionizing radiation for this population. Results. Evidence-based changes were made to the Northern Ireland screening programme, including an increase in ultrasound scanning capacity and expansion of nurse-led screening clinics. The number of infant hip ultrasound scans increased from 4,788 in 2011, to approximately 7,000 in 2013 and subsequent years. The number of hip radiographs on infants of less than one year of age fell from 7,381 to 2,208 per year. There was a modest increase in the treatment rate from 10.9 to 14.3 per 1,000 live births but there was a significant reduction in the number of closed hip reductions. The incidence of infants diagnosed with DDH after one year of age was 0.30 per 1,000 live births over the entire period. Conclusion. Improving compliance with the regional infant hip screening protocols led to reduction in operative procedures and reduced the number of pelvic radiographs of infants. We conclude that performance monitoring of screening programmes for DDH is essential to provide a quality service. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):495–500

Aims. This is a multicentre, prospective assessment of a proportion of the overall orthopaedic trauma caseload of the UK. It investigates theatre capacity, cancellations, and time to surgery in a group of hospitals that is representative of the wider population. It identifies barriers to effective practice and will inform system improvements. Methods. Data capture was by collaborative approach. Patients undergoing procedures from 22 August 2022 and operated on before 31 October 2022 were included. Arm one captured weekly caseload and theatre capacity. Arm two concerned patient and injury demographics, and time to surgery for specific injury groups. Results. Data was available from 90 hospitals across 86 data access groups (70 in England, two in Wales, ten in Scotland, and four in Northern Ireland). After exclusions, 709 weeks' of data on theatre capacity and 23,138 operations were analyzed. The average number of cases per operating session was 1.73. Only 5.8% of all theatre sessions were dedicated day surgery sessions, despite 29% of general trauma patients being eligible for such pathways. In addition, 12.3% of patients experienced at least one cancellation. Delays to surgery were longest in Northern Ireland and shortest in England and Scotland. There was marked variance across all fracture types. Open fractures and fragility hip fractures, influenced by guidelines and performance renumeration, had short waits, and varied least. In all, nine hospitals had 40 or more patients waiting for surgery every week, while seven had less than five. Conclusion. There is great variability in operative demand and list provision seen in this study of 90 UK hospitals. There is marked variation in nearly all injuries apart from those associated with performance monitoring. There is no evidence of local network level coordination of care for orthopaedic trauma patients. Day case operating and pathways of care are underused and are an important area for service improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):463–471

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the provision of arthroplasty services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This study aimed to quantify the backlog, analyze national trends, and predict time to recovery. Methods. We performed an analysis of the mandatory prospective national registry of all independent and publicly funded hip, knee, shoulder, elbow, and ankle replacements in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between January 2019 and December 2022 inclusive, totalling 729,642 operations. The deficit was calculated per year compared to a continuation of 2019 volume. Total deficit of cases between 2020 to 2022 was expressed as a percentage of 2019 volume. Sub-analyses were performed based on procedure type, country, and unit sector. Results. Between January 2020 and December 2022, there was a deficit of 158,994 joint replacements. This is equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal expected operating activity (71.6%). There were 104,724 (-47.1%) fewer performed in 2020, 41,928 (-18.9%) fewer performed in 2021, and 12,342 (-5.6%) fewer performed in 2022, respectively, than in 2019. Independent-sector procedures increased to make it the predominant arthroplasty provider (53% in 2022). NHS activity was 73.2% of 2019 levels, while independent activity increased to 126.8%. Wales (-136.3%) and Northern Ireland (-121.3%) recorded deficits of more than a year’s worth of procedures, substantially more than England (-66.7%). It would take until 2031 to eliminate this deficit with an immediate expansion of capacity over 2019 levels by 10%. Conclusion. The arthroplasty deficit following the COVID-19 pandemic is now equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal operating activity, and continues to increase. Patients awaiting different types of arthroplasty, in each country, have been affected disproportionately. A rapid and significant expansion in services is required to address the deficit, and will still take many years to rectify. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):834–841

Aims. The Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) is a 12-item measure commonly used for the assessment of shoulder surgeries. This study explores whether computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a shortened, individually tailored questionnaire while maintaining test accuracy. Methods. A total of 16,238 preoperative OSS were available in the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey dataset (April 2012 to April 2022). Prior to CAT, the foundational item response theory (IRT) assumptions of unidimensionality, monotonicity, and local independence were established. CAT compared sequential item selection with stopping criteria set at standard error (SE) < 0.32 and SE < 0.45 (equivalent to reliability coefficients of 0.90 and 0.80) to full-length patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) precision. Results. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for unidimensionality exhibited satisfactory fit with root mean square standardized residual (RSMSR) of 0.06 (cut-off ≤ 0.08) but not with comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.85 or Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) of 0.82 (cut-off > 0.90). Monotonicity, measured by H value, yielded 0.482, signifying good monotonic trends. Local independence was generally met, with Yen’s Q3 statistic > 0.2 for most items. The median item count for completing the CAT simulation with a SE of 0.32 was 3 (IQR 3 to 12), while for a SE of 0.45 it was 2 (IQR 2 to 6). This constituted only 25% and 16%, respectively, when compared to the 12-item full-length questionnaire. Conclusion. Calibrating IRT for the OSS has resulted in the development of an efficient and shortened CAT while maintaining accuracy and reliability. Through the reduction of redundant items and implementation of a standardized measurement scale, our study highlights a promising approach to alleviate time burden and potentially enhance compliance with these widely used outcome measures. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(8):392–400

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify variables associated with time to revision, demographic details associated with revision indication, and type of prosthesis employed, and to describe the survival of hinge knee arthroplasty (HKA) when used for first-time knee revision surgery and factors that were associated with re-revision. Methods. Patient demographic details, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, indication for revision, surgical approach, surgeon grade, implant type (fixed and rotating), time of revision from primary implantation, and re-revision if undertaken were obtained from the National Joint Registry data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man over an 18-year period (2003 to 2021). Results. There were 3,855 patient episodes analyzed with a median age of 73 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 80), and the majority were female (n = 2,480, 64.3%). The median time to revision from primary knee arthroplasty was 1,219 days (IQR 579 to 2,422). Younger age (p < 0.001), decreasing ASA grade (p < 0.001), and indications for revision of sepsis (p < 0.001), unexplained pain (p < 0.001), non-polyethylene wear (p < 0.001), and malalignment (p < 0.001) were all associated with an earlier time to revision from primary implantation. The median follow-up was 4.56 years (range 0.00 to 17.52), during which there were 410 re-revisions. The overall unadjusted probability of re-revision for all revision HKAs at one, five, and ten years after surgery were 2.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2 to 3.3), 10.7% (95% CI 9.6 to 11.9), and 16.2% (95% CI 14.5 to 17.9), respectively. Male sex (p < 0.001), younger age (p < 0.001), revision for septic indications (p < 0.001) or implant fracture (p = 0.010), a fixed hinge (p < 0.001), or surgery performed by a non-consultant grade (p = 0.023) were independently associated with an increased risk of re-revision. Conclusion. There were several factors associated with time to first revision. The re-revision rate was 16.2% at ten years; however, the risk factors associated with an increased risk of re-revision could be used to counsel patients regarding their outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):47–55

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. This study evaluates the association between consultant and hospital volume and the risk of re-revision and 90-day mortality following first-time revision of primary hip arthroplasty for aseptic loosening. Methods. We conducted a cohort study of first-time, single-stage revision hip arthroplasties (RHAs) performed for aseptic loosening and recorded in the National Joint Registry (NJR) data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man between 2003 and 2019. Patient identifiers were used to link records to national mortality data, and to NJR data to identify subsequent re-revision procedures. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines were used to define associations between volume and outcome. Results. Among 12,961 RHAs there were 513 re-revisions within two years, and 95 deaths within 90 days of surgery. The risk of re-revision was highest for a consultant’s first RHA (hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.12)) and remained significantly elevated for their first 24 cases (HR 1.26 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.58)). Annual consultant volumes of five/year were associated with an almost 30% greater risk of re-revision (HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.64)) and 80% greater risk of 90-day mortality (HR 1.81 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.21)) compared to volumes of 20/year. RHAs performed at hospitals which had cumulatively undertaken fewer than 167 RHAs were at up to 70% greater risk of re-revision (HR 1.70 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.59)), and those having undertaken fewer than 307 RHAs were at up to three times greater risk of 90-day mortality (HR 3.05 (95% CI 1.19 to 7.82)). Conclusion. This study found a significantly higher risk of re-revision and early postoperative mortality following first-time single-stage RHA for aseptic loosening when performed by lower-volume consultants and at lower-volume institutions, supporting the move towards the centralization of such cases towards higher-volume units and surgeons. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1050–1058

Aims. Metal and ceramic humeral head bearing surfaces are available choices in anatomical shoulder arthroplasties. Wear studies have shown superior performance of ceramic heads, however comparison of clinical outcomes according to bearing surface in total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and hemiarthroplasty (HA) is limited. This study aimed to compare the rates of revision and reoperation following metal and ceramic humeral head TSA and HA using data from the National Joint Registry (NJR), which collects data from England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Isle of Man and the States of Guernsey. Methods. NJR shoulder arthroplasty records were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the National Mortality Register. TSA and HA performed for osteoarthritis (OA) in patients with an intact rotator cuff were included. Metal and ceramic humeral head prostheses were matched within separate TSA and HA groups using propensity scores based on 12 and 11 characteristics, respectively. The primary outcome was time to first revision and the secondary outcome was non-revision reoperation. Results. A total of 4,799 TSAs (3,578 metal, 1,221 ceramic) and 1,363 HAs (1,020 metal, 343 ceramic) were included. The rate of revision was higher for metal compared with ceramic TSA, hazard ratio (HR) 3.31 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.67 to 6.58). At eight years, prosthesis survival for ceramic TSA was 98.7% (95% CI 97.3 to 99.4) compared with 96.4% (95% CI 95.2 to 97.3) for metal TSA. The majority of revision TSAs were for cuff insufficiency or instability/dislocation. There was no significant difference in the revision rate for ceramic compared with metal head HA (HR 1.33 (95% CI 0.76 to 2.34)). For ceramic HA, eight-year prosthetic survival was 92.8% (95% CI 86.9 to 96.1), compared with 91.6% (95% CI 89.3 to 93.5) for metal HA. The majority of revision HAs were for cuff failure. Conclusion. The rate of all-cause revision was higher following metal compared with ceramic humeral head TSA in patients with OA and an intact rotator cuff. There was no difference in the revision rate for HA according to bearing surface. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):482–491

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement influenced the risk of revision surgery after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis. Methods. The study involved data collected by the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England and Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man between 1 September 2005 and 31 August 2017. Cox proportional hazards were used to investigate the association between use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement and the risk of revision due to prosthetic joint infection (PJI), with adjustments made for the year of the initial procedure, age at the time of surgery, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, head size, and body mass index (BMI). We looked also at the association between use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement and the risk of revision due to aseptic loosening or osteolysis. Results. The cohort included 418,857 THAs of whom 397,896 had received antibiotic-loaded bone cement and 20,961 plain cement. After adjusting for putative confounding factors, the risk of revision for PJI was lower in those in whom antibiotic-loaded bone cement was used (hazard ration (HR) 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.98). There was also a protective effect on the risk of revision due to aseptic loosening or osteolysis, in the period of > 4.1 years after primary THA, HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.45, 0.72. Conclusion. Within the limits of registry analysis, this study showed an association between the use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement and lower rates of revision due to PJI. The findings support the continued use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement in cemented THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(8):997–1002

Aims. Aseptic loosening is the most common cause of failure following cemented total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and has been linked to poor cementation technique. We aimed to develop a consensus on the optimal technique for component cementation in TKA. Methods. A UK-based, three-round, online modified Delphi Expert Consensus Study was completed focusing on cementation technique in TKA. Experts were identified as having a minimum of five years’ consultant experience in the NHS and fulfilling any one of the following criteria: a ‘high volume’ knee arthroplasty practice (> 150 TKAs per annum) as identified from the National joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man; a senior author of at least five peer reviewed articles related to TKA in the previous five years; a surgeon who is named trainer for a post-certificate of comletion of training fellowship in TKA. Results. In total, 81 experts (round 1) and 80 experts (round 2 and 3) completed the Delphi Study. Four domains with a total of 24 statements were identified. 100% consensus was reached within the cement preparation, pressurization, and cement curing domains. 90% consensus was reached within the cement application domain. Consensus was not reached with only one statement regarding the handling of cement during initial application to the tibial and/or femoral bone surfaces. Conclusion. The Cementing Techniques In Knee Surgery (CeTIKS) Delphi consensus study presents comprehensive recommendations on the optimal technique for component cementing in TKA. Expert opinion has a place in the hierarchy of evidence and, until better evidence is available these recommendations should be considered when cementing a TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):682–688

Aims. To investigate the effect of polyethylene manufacturing characteristics and irradiation dose on the survival of cemented and reverse hybrid total hip arthroplasties (THAs). Methods. In this registry study, data from the National Joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR) were linked with manufacturing data supplied by manufacturers. The primary endpoint was revision of any component. Cox proportional hazard regression was a primary analytic approach adjusting for competing risk of death, patient characteristics, head composition, and stem fixation. Results. A total of 290,770 primary THAs were successfully linked with manufacturing characteristics. Overall 4,708 revisions were analyzed, 1,260 of which were due to aseptic loosening. Total radiation dose was identified as a risk factor and included in the Cox model. For statistical modelling of aseptic loosening, THAs were grouped into three categories: G1 (no radiation); G2 ( > 0 to < 5 Mrad); and G3 ( ≥ 5 Mrad). G1 had the worst survivorship. The Cox regression hazard ratio for revision due to aseptic loosening for G2 was 0.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 0.83), and for G3 0.4 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.53). Male sex and uncemented stem fixation were associated with higher risk of revision and ceramic heads with lower risk. Conclusion. Polyethylene irradiation was associated with reduced risk of revision for aseptic loosening. Radiation doses of ≥ 5 Mrad were associated with a further reduction in risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(9):563–571

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends and survivorship of total hip arthroplasty (THA) in very young patients, aged ≤ 20 years. Patients and Methods. A descriptive observational study was undertaken using data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man between April 2003 and March 2017. All patients aged ≤ 20 years at the time of THA were included and the primary outcome was revision surgery. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data and Kaplan–Meier estimates calculated for the cumulative implant survival. Results. A total of 769 THAs were performed in 703 patients. The median follow-up was 5.1 years (interquartile range (IQR) 2.6 to 7.8). Eight patients died and 35 THAs were revised. The use of metal-on-metal (MoM) bearings and resurfacing procedures declined after 2008. The most frequently recorded indications for revision were loosening (20%) and infection (20%), although the absolute risk of these events occurring was low (0.9%). Factors associated with lower implant survival were MoM and metal-on-polyethylene (MoP) bearings and resurfacing arthroplasty (vs ceramic-on-polyethylene (CoP) and ceramic-on-ceramic (CoC) bearings, p = 0.002), and operations performed by surgeons who undertook few THAs in this age group as recorded in the NJR (vs those with five or more recorded operations, p = 0.030). Kaplan–Meier estimates showed 96% (95% confidence interval (CI) 94% to 98%) survivorship of implants at five years. Conclusion. Within the NJR, the overall survival for very young patients undergoing THA exceeded 96% during the first five postoperative years. In the absence of studies that can better account for differences in the characteristics of the patients, surgeons should consider the association between early revision and the type of implant, the number of THAs performed in these patients, and the bearing surface when performing THA in very young patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1320–9

Objectives. We used the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR) to investigate the risk of revision due to prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing primary and revision hip arthroplasty, the changes in risk over time, and the overall burden created by PJI. Methods. We analysed revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the NJR between 2003 and 2014. The cohort analysed consisted of 623 253 index primary hip arthroplasties, 63 222 index revision hip arthroplasties and 7585 revision THAs performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. Results. We demonstrated a prevalence of revision THA due to prosthetic joint infection of 0.4/100 procedures following primary and 1.6/100 procedures following revision hip arthroplasty. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the three months following primary hip arthroplasty has risen 2.3-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 4.1) between 2005 and 2013, and 3.0-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 8.5) following revision hip arthroplasty. Over 1000 procedures are performed annually as a consequence of hip PJI, an increase of 2.6-fold between 2005 and 2013. Conclusions. Although the risk of revision due to PJI following hip arthroplasty is low, it is rising and, coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision hip arthroplasty, this represents a growing and substantial treatment burden. Cite this article: E. Lenguerrand, M. R. Whitehouse, A. D. Beswick, S. A. Jones, M. L. Porter, A. W. Blom. Revision for prosthetic joint infection following hip arthroplasty: Evidence from the National Joint Registry. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:391–398. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.66.BJR-2017-0003.R1

Aims. Patellofemoral arthroplasty (PFA) has experienced significant improvements in implant survivorship with second generation designs. This has renewed interest in PFA as an alternative to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for younger active patients with isolated patellofemoral osteoarthritis (PF OA). We analysed the cost-effectiveness of PFA versus TKA for the management of isolated PF OA in the United States-based population. Patients and Methods. We used a Markov transition state model to compare cost-effectiveness between PFA and TKA. Simulated patients were aged 60 (base case) and 50 years. Lifetime costs (2015 United States dollars), quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated from a healthcare payer perspective. Annual rates of revision were derived from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed for all parameters against a $50 000/QALY willingness to pay. . Results. PFA was more expensive ($49 811 versus $46 632) but more effective (14.3 QALYs versus 13.3 QALYs) over a lifetime horizon. The ICER associated with the additional effectiveness of PFA was $3097. The model was mainly sensitive to utility values, with PFA remaining cost-effective when its utility exceeded that of TKA by at least 1.0%. PFA provided incremental benefits at no increased cost when annual rates of revision decreased by 24.5%. . Conclusions. Recent improvements in rates of implant of survival have made PFA an economically beneficial joint-preserving procedure in younger patients, delaying TKA until implant failure or tibiofemoral OA progression. The present study quantified the minimum required marginal benefit for PFA to be cost-effective compared with TKA and identified survivorship targets for PFA to become both less expensive and more effective. These benchmarks might be used to assess clinical outcomes of PFA from an economic standpoint within the United States healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1028–36

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a devastating complication for patients and results in greatly increased costs of care for both healthcare providers and patients. More than 15 500 revision hip and knee procedures were recorded in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2013, with infection accounting for 13% of revision hip and 23% of revision knee procedures. We report our experience of using antibiotic eluting absorbable calcium sulphate beads in 15 patients (eight men and seven women with a mean age of 64.8 years; 41 to 83) as part of a treatment protocol for PJI in revision arthroplasty. . The mean follow-up was 16 months (12 to 22). We report the outcomes and complications, highlighting the risk of hypercalcaemia which occurred in three patients. We recommend that serum levels of calcium be routinely sought following the implantation of absorbable calcium sulphate beads in orthopaedic surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1237–41

Recent reports have suggested an association between Perthes’ disease and an underlying thrombophilic or hypofibrinolytic tendency. In Northern Ireland there is a high incidence of Perthes’ disease (11.7 per 100 000 or 1 in 607 children) in a stable paediatric population. We reviewed 139 children with Perthes’ disease and compared them with a control group of 220 aged- and gender-matched healthy primary schoolchildren with similar racial and ethnic backgrounds. There were no significant deficiencies of antithrombotic factors protein C, protein S, antithrombin III or resistance to activated protein C. A total of 53 (38.1%) of the children with Perthes’ disease had a prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (> 38) compared with 13 (5.9%) of the control group (p < 0.001). Our findings have shown that using standard assays, thrombophilia secondary to antithrombotic factor deficiency or resistance to activated protein does not appear to be an aetiological factor for Perthes’ disease. The cause of the prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time, usually associated with a clotting factor deficiency, is under further investigation

The October 2024 Arthroplasty Roundup³⁶⁰ looks at: Breaking the mould: female representation in arthroplasty surgery remains low, with elbow leading the way; Post COVID-19: where are we with the 'catch up' in England and Wales?; Prevalence and clinical impact of sarcopenia in patients undergoing total joint replacement: a systematic review and a meta-analysis; Total joint replacement and sleep: the state of the evidence.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(4):256–258.

Aims

Tranexamic acid (TXA) is now commonly used in major surgical operations including orthopaedics. The TRAC-24 randomized control trial (RCT) aimed to assess if an additional 24 hours of TXA postoperatively in primary total hip (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) reduced blood loss. Contrary to other orthopaedic studies to date, this trial included high-risk patients. This paper presents the results of a cost analysis undertaken alongside this RCT.

Aims

To analyze whether the addition of risk-based criteria to clinical examination-based selective ultrasound screening would increase the rates of early detected cases of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) and decrease the rate of late detected cases.

Aims

Ankle fracture is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries sustained in the UK. Many patients experience pain and physical impairment, with the consequences of the fracture and its management lasting for several months or even years. The broad aim of ankle fracture treatment is to maintain the alignment of the joint while the fracture heals, and to reduce the risks of problems, such as stiffness. More severe injuries to the ankle are routinely treated surgically. However, even with advances in surgery, there remains a risk of complications; for patients experiencing these, the associated loss of function and quality of life (Qol) is considerable. Non-surgical treatment is an alternative to surgery and involves applying a cast carefully shaped to the patient’s ankle to correct and maintain alignment of the joint with the key benefit being a reduction in the frequency of common complications of surgery. The main potential risk of non-surgical treatment is a loss of alignment with a consequent reduction in ankle function. This study aims to determine whether ankle function, four months after treatment, in patients with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting is not worse than in those treated with surgical intervention, which is the current standard of care.

The June 2024 Shoulder & Elbow Roundup³⁶⁰ looks at: Reverse versus anatomical total shoulder replacement for osteoarthritis? A UK national picture; Acute rehabilitation following traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (ARTISAN): pragmatic, multicentre, randomized controlled trial; acid for rotator cuff repair: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials; Metal or ceramic humeral head total shoulder arthroplasty: an analysis of data from the National Joint Registry; Platelet-rich plasma has better results for long-term functional improvement and pain relief for lateral epicondylitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials; Quantitative fatty infiltration and 3D muscle volume after nonoperative treatment of symptomatic rotator cuff tears: a prospective MRI study of 79 patients; Locking plates for non-osteoporotic proximal humeral fractures in the long term; A systematic review of the treatment of primary acromioclavicular joint osteoarthritis.

Aims

The Exeter V40 femoral stem is the most implanted stem in the National Joint Registry (NJR) for primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). In 2004, the 44/00/125 stem was released for use in ‘cement-in-cement’ revision cases. It has, however, been used ‘off-label’ as a primary stem when patient anatomy requires a smaller stem with a 44 mm offset. We aimed to investigate survival of this implant in comparison to others in the range when used in primary THAs recorded in the NJR.

Aims

The primary aim was to assess change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients as they waited from six to 12 months for a total hip (THA) or total or partial knee arthroplasty (KA). Secondary aims were to assess change in joint-specific function, mental health, quality of sleep, number living in a state worse than death (WTD), wellbeing, and patient satisfaction with their healthcare.

Recent publications have drawn attention to the fact that some brands of joint replacement may contain variants which perform significantly worse (or better) than their ‘siblings’. As a result, the National Joint Registry has performed much more detailed analysis on the larger families of knee arthroplasties in order to identify exactly where these differences may be present and may hitherto have remained hidden. The analysis of the Nexgen knee arthroplasty brand identified that some posterior-stabilized combinations have particularly high revision rates for aseptic loosening of the tibia, and consequently a medical device recall has been issued for the Nexgen ‘option’ tibial component which was implicated. More elaborate signal detection is required in order to identify such variation in results in a routine fashion if patients are to be protected from such variation in outcomes between closely related implant types.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):221–226.

Aims

Arthroplasty has been shown to generate the most waste among all orthopaedic subspecialties, and it is estimated that hip and knee arthroplasty generate in excess of three million kg of waste annually in the UK. Infectious waste generates up to ten times more CO2 compared with recycled waste, and previous studies have shown that over 90% of waste in the infectious stream is misallocated. We assessed the effect of real-time waste segregation by an unscrubbed team member on waste generation in knee and hip arthroplasty cases, and compared this with a simple educational intervention during the ‘team brief’ at the start of the operating list across two sites.

Aims

When a total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) fails, it can be converted to a fusion or a revision arthroplasty. Despite the increasing numbers of TAAs being undertaken, there is little information in the literature about the management of patients undergoing fusion following a failed TAA. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the survival of fusions following a failed TAA using a large dataset from the National Joint Registry (NJR).

The April 2024 Knee Roundup³⁶⁰ looks at: Challenging the status quo: re-evaluating the impact of obesity on unicompartmental knee arthroplasty outcomes; Timing matters: the link between ACL reconstruction delays and cartilage damage; Custom fit or off the shelf: evaluating patient outcomes in tailored versus standard knee replacements; Revolutionizing knee replacement: a comparative study on robotic-assisted and computer-navigated techniques; Pre-existing knee osteoarthritis and severe joint depression are associated with the need for total knee arthroplasty after tibial plateau fracture in patients aged over 60 years; Modern digital therapies?; A matched study on fracture rates following knee replacement surgeries;

Aims

A national screening programme has existed in the UK for the diagnosis of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) since 1969. However, every aspect of screening and treatment remains controversial. Screening programmes throughout the world vary enormously, and in the UK there is significant variation in screening practice and treatment pathways. We report the results of an attempt by the British Society for Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) to identify a nationwide consensus for the management of DDH in order to unify treatment and suggest an approach for screening.

Polished taper-slip (PTS) cemented stems have an excellent clinical track record and are the most common stem type used in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) in the UK. Due to low rates of aseptic loosening, they have largely replaced more traditional composite beam (CB) cemented stems. However, there is now emerging evidence from multiple joint registries that PTS stems are associated with higher rates of postoperative periprosthetic femoral fracture (PFF) compared to their CB stem counterparts. The risk of both intraoperative and postoperative PFF remains greater with uncemented stems compared to either of these cemented stem subtypes. PFF continues to be a devastating complication following primary THA and is associated with high complication and mortality rates. Recent efforts have focused on identifying implant-related risk factors for PFF in order to guide preventative strategies, and therefore the purpose of this article is to present the current evidence on the effect of cemented femoral stem design on the risk of PFF.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):11–15.

Aims

In 2015, we published the results of our ceramic-on-metal (CoM) total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed between October 2007 and July 2009 with a mean follow-up of 34 months (23 to 45) and a revision rate of 3.1%. The aim of this paper is to present the longer-term outcomes.