Aims. Accurate estimations of the risk of fracture due to metastatic bone disease in the femur is essential in order to avoid both under-treatment and over-treatment of patients with an impending pathological fracture. The purpose of the current retrospective in vivo study was to use CT-based finite element analyses (CTFEA) to identify a clear quantitative differentiating factor between patients who are at imminent risk of fracturing their femur and those who are not, and to identify the exact location of maximal weakness where the fracture is most likely to occur. Methods. Data were collected on 82 patients with femoral metastatic bone disease, 41 of whom did not undergo prophylactic fixation. A total of 15 had a pathological fracture within six months following the CT scan, and 26 were fracture-free during the five months following the scan. The Mirels score and strain fold ratio (SFR) based on CTFEA was computed for all patients. A SFR value of 1.48 was used as the threshold for a pathological fracture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predicted values for Mirels score and SFR predictions were computed for nine patients who fractured and 24 who did not, as well as a comparison of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC of the ROC curves). Results. The sensitivity of SFR was 100% compared with 88% for the Mirels score, and the specificity of SFR was 67% compared with 38% for the Mirels score. The AUC was 0.905 for SFR compared with 0.578 for the Mirels score (p = 0.008). Conclusion. All the patients who sustained a pathological fracture of the femur had an SFR of > 1.48. CTFEA was far better at predicting the risk of fracture and its location accurately compared with the Mirels score. CTFEA is quick and automated and can be incorporated into the protocol of CT scanners. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(5):638–645

Aims. Currently, there is no single, comprehensive national guideline for analgesic strategies for total joint replacement. We compared inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip arthroplasty (THA) versus total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in order to determine risk factors for increased inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip or knee arthroplasty. Methods. Outcomes after 92 primary total knee (n = 49) and hip (n = 43) arthroplasties were analyzed. Patients with repeat surgery within 90 days were excluded. Opioid use was recorded while inpatient and 90 days postoperatively. Outcomes included total opioid use, refills, use beyond 90 days, and unplanned clinical encounters for uncontrolled pain. Multivariate modelling determined the effect of surgery, regional nerve block (RNB) or neuraxial anesthesia (NA), and non-opioid medications after adjusting for demographics, ength of stay, and baseline opioid use. Results. TKAs had higher daily inpatient opioid use than THAs (in 5 mg oxycodone pill equivalents: median 12.0 vs 7.0; p < 0.001), and greater 90 day use (median 224.0 vs 100.5; p < 0.001). Opioid refills were more likely in TKA (84% vs 33%; p < 0.001). Patient who underwent TKA had higher independent risk of opioid use beyond 90 days than THA (adjusted OR 7.64; 95% SE 1.23 to 47.5; p = 0.01). Inpatient opioid use 24 hours before discharge was the strongest independent predictor of 90-day opioid use (p < 0.001). Surgical procedure, demographics, and baseline opioid use have greater influence on in/outpatient opioid demand than RNB, NA, or non-opioid analgesics. Conclusion. Opioid use following TKA and THA is most strongly predicted by surgical and patient factors. TKA was associated with higher postoperative opioid requirements than THA. RNB and NA did not diminish total inpatient or 90-day postoperative opioid consumption. The use of acetaminophen, gabapentin, or NSAIDs did not significantly alter inpatient opioid requirements. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:398–404

Aims. Single-stage revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) is gaining popularity in treating chronic periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs). We have introduced this approach to our clinical practice and sought to evaluate rates of reinfection and re-revision, along with predictors of failure of both single- and two-stage rTKA for chronic PJI. Methods. A retrospective comparative cohort study of all rTKAs for chronic PJI between 1 April 2003 and 31 December 2018 was undertaken using prospective databases. Patients with acute infections were excluded; rTKAs were classified as single-stage, stage 1, or stage 2 of two-stage revision. The primary outcome measure was failure to eradicate or recurrent infection. Variables evaluated for failure by regression analysis included age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, infecting organisms, and the presence of a sinus. Patient survivorship was also compared between the groups. Results. A total of 292 consecutive first-time rTKAs for chronic PJI were included: 82 single-stage (28.1%); and 210 two-stage (71.9%) revisions. The mean age was 71 years (27 to 90), with 165 females (57.4%), and a mean BMI of 30.9 kg/m. 2. (20 to 53). Significantly more patients with a known infecting organism were in the single-stage group (93.9% vs 80.47%; p = 0.004). The infecting organism was identified preoperatively in 246 cases (84.2%). At a mean follow-up of 6.3 years (2.0 to 17.6), the failure rate was 6.1% in the single-stage, and 12% in the two-stage groups. All failures occurred within four years of treatment. The presence of a sinus was an independent risk factor for failure (odds ratio (OR) 4.97; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.593 to 15.505; p = 0.006), as well as age > 80 years (OR 5.962; 95% CI 1.156 to 30.73; p = 0.033). The ten-year patient survivorship rate was 72% in the single-stage group compared with 70.5% in the two-stage group. This difference was not significant (p = 0.517). Conclusion. Single-stage rTKA is an effective strategy with a high success rate comparable to two-stage approach in appropriately selected patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1373–1379

Aims. Temporary epiphysiodesis (ED) is commonly applied in children and adolescents to treat leg length discrepancies (LLDs) and tall stature. Traditional Blount staples or modern two-hole plates are used in clinical practice. However, they require accurate planning, precise surgical techniques, and attentive follow-up to achieve the desired outcome without complications. This study reports the results of ED using a novel rigid staple (RigidTack) incorporating safety, as well as technical and procedural success according to the idea, development, evaluation, assessment, long-term (IDEAL) study framework. Methods. A cohort of 56 patients, including 45 unilateral EDs for LLD and 11 bilateral EDs for tall stature, were prospectively analyzed. ED was performed with 222 rigid staples with a mean follow-up of 24.4 months (8 to 49). Patients with a predicted LLD of ≥ 2 cm at skeletal maturity were included. Mean age at surgery was 12.1 years (8 to 14). Correction and complication rates including implant-associated problems, and secondary deformities as well as perioperative parameters, were recorded (IDEAL stage 2a). These results were compared to historical cohorts treated for correction of LLD with two-hole plates or Blount staples. Results. The mean LLD was reduced from 25.2 mm (15 to 45) before surgery to 9.3 mm (6 to 25) at skeletal maturity. Implant-associated complications occurred in 4/56 treatments (7%), and secondary frontal plane deformities were detected in 5/45 legs (11%) of the LLD cohort. Including tall stature patients, the rate increased to 12/67 legs (18%). Sagittal plane deformities were observed during 1/45 LLD treatments (2%). Compared to two-hole plates and Blount staples, similar correction rates were observed in all devices. Lower rates of frontal and sagittal plane deformities were observed using rigid staples. Conclusion. Treatment of LLD using novel rigid staples appears a feasible and promising strategy. Secondary frontal and sagittal plane deformities remain a potential complication, although the rate seems to be lower in patients treated with rigid staples. Further comparative studies are needed to investigate this issue. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1428–1437

Aims. Conservative treatment of moderately displaced proximal humeral head fractures yields good clinical results, but secondary fragment displacement may occur. Identification of those fractures at risk of displacement may influence initial decision-making. Methods. A total of 163 shoulders in 162 patients with conservatively treated isolated proximal humeral fractures were included. The fractures occurred between January 2015 and May 2018. The mean age of the patients was 69 years (26 to 100) and the mean follow-up was 144 days (42 to 779). The fractures were classified according to Neer. Scores for osteoporosis (Tingart, Deltoid Tuberosity Index (DTI)) and osteoarthritis (OA) of the glenohumeral joint were assessed. Translation of the head on follow-up radiographs of more than 10 mm was defined as displacement. Eccentric head index (EHI) describes the offset of the humeral head centre in relation to the diaphyseal axis. The ratio was estimated on anteroposterior (AP) and Neer views. Medial hinge was considered intact if the medial cortex proximal and distal to the fracture was in line on AP view. Results. Secondary fracture displacement occurred in 41 patients (25.2%). Clinical risk factors were alcohol abuse (odds ratio (OR) 6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 36; p = 0.025) and previously diagnosed osteoporosis (OR 4.6; 95% CI 0.6 to 34; p = 0.136). Age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1; p = 0.003) and sex (OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.3 to 2.8; p = 0.867) were not independent factors. Radiological risk factors were OA grade 3 (OR 16.4; 95% CI 0.25 to 37.6; p = 0.107) and osteoporosis with the DTI (OR 10; 95% CI 0.8 to 250; p = 0.031) being more predictive than the Tingart score (OR 2.3; 95% CI 0.8 to 4.7; p = 0.041). A high EHI (AP/Neer > 0.4, OR 18.9; 95% CI 2.1 to 30.9/3.0; 95% CI 1.1 to 8.0; p = 0.002/p = 0.033) and a disrupted medial hinge (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1 to 12.6; p = 0.039) increased the risk of secondary displacement significantly. Neer classification had no influence. Conclusion. During conservative treatment, a quarter of patients showed secondary fracture displacement of at least 10 mm. Patients with alcohol abuse, severe OA, and osteoporosis are at risk. Newly defined EHI and disrupted medial hinge are relevant predictors for secondary displacement. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):881–889

Aims. Hereditary haemochromatosis is a genetic disorder that is caused by several known mutations in the human homeostatic iron regulator protein (HFE) gene. Abnormal accumulation of iron causes a joint disease that resembles osteoarthritis (OA), but appears at a relatively younger age and is accompanied by cirrhosis, diabetes, and injury to other organs. Increased serum transferrin saturation and ferritin levels are known markers of haemochromatosis with high positive predictive values. Methods. We have retrospectively analyzed the iron studies of a cohort of 2,035 patients undergoing knee joint arthroplasty due to OA. Results. No patients had HFE gene C282Y, S65C, or H63D mutations testing. In total, 18 patients (2.96%) of the male cohort and 51 (3.58%) of the female cohort had pathologically increased ferritin levels that may be indicative of haemochromatosis. Seven patients (0.34%) had serum transferrin saturation above 45%. Conclusion. The awareness for the diagnosis of this disorder in Orthopaedics is low and needs improvement. Osteoarthritic patients undergoing knee arthroplasty should be routinely screened for haemochromatosis by iron studies and referred to genetic testing when needed. Level of evidence: Level III - Retrospective cohort study. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(12):1062–1066

Aims. Cementless femoral stems must be correctly sized and well-seated to obtain satisfactory biological fixation. The change in sound that occurs during impaction of the femoral broach is said to indicate good fit, but this has not been widely studied. We set out to find whether the presence or absence of these sound changes could predict correct sizing. Patients and Methods. We recorded the sound generated during femoral broaching for 105 cementless total hip arthroplasties using the Corail stem. Four cases were excluded, leaving 101 recordings for analysis. There were 36 male patients and 65 female patients, with a mean age of 69.9 years (. sd. 12.3) and median body mass index (BMI) of 29 kg/m. 2. (interquartile range (IQR) 26 to 32). The recordings were analyzed to identify the frequencies of the sounds produced during impaction of the femoral broach. Results. The emergence of a low-frequency band of sound in the 1 kHz range, during the final femoral broaching, was a strong predictor of a well-sized implant stem. The frequency was related to femoral length, supporting our hypothesis that the sound arose from the bone itself. Conclusion. The low-frequency sound generated during femoral broaching can be monitored spectrographically, its frequency can be predicted from femoral length, and it is a good predictor of appropriate stem sizing

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), minimal important change (MIC), minimal detectable change (MDC), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) threshold in the Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) according to patient satisfaction six months following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. During a one-year period 484 patients underwent a primary TKA and completed preoperative and six-month FJS and OKS. At six months patients were asked, “How satisfied are you with your operated knee?” Their response was recorded as: very satisfied, satisfied, neutral, dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. The difference between patients recording neutral (n = 44) and satisfied (n = 153) was used to define the MCID. MIC for a cohort was defined as the change in the FJS for those patients declaring their outcome as satisfied, whereas receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the MIC for an individual and the PASS threshold. Distribution-based methodology was used to calculate the MDC. Results. Using satisfaction as the anchor question, the MCID for the FJS was 16.6 (95% confidence interval (CIs) 8.9 to 24.3; p < 0.001) and when adjusting for confounding this decreased to 13.7 points (95% CI 4.8 to 22.5; p < 0.001). The MIC for the FJS for a cohort of patients was 17.7 points and for an individual patient was 10 points. The MDC90 for the FGS was 12 points; where 90% of patients scoring more than this will have experienced a real change that is beyond measurement error. The PASS was defined as 22 points or more in the postoperative FJS. Conclusion. The estimates for MCID and MIC can be used to assess whether there is clinical difference between two groups and whether a cohort/patient has had a meaningful change in their FJS, respectively. The MDC90 of 12 points suggests a value lower than this may fall within measurement error. A postoperative FJS of 22 or more was predictive of achieving PASS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):846–854

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether non-fatal postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) within six months of surgery influences the knee-specific functional outcome (Oxford Knee Score (OKS)) one year after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Secondary aims were to assess whether non-fatal postoperative VTE influences generic health and patient satisfaction at this time. Methods. A study of 2,393 TKAs was performed in 2,393 patients. Patient demographics, comorbidities, OKS, EuroQol five-dimension score (EQ-5D), and Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Overall patient satisfaction with their TKA was assessed at one year. Patients with VTE within six months of surgery were identified retrospectively and compared with those without. Results. A total of 37 patients (1.5%) suffered a VTE and were significantly more likely to have associated comorbidities of stroke (p = 0.026), vascular disease (p = 0.026), and kidney disease (p = 0.026), but less likely to have diabetes (p = 0.046). In an unadjusted analysis, patients suffering a VTE had a significantly worse postoperative OKS (difference in mean (DIM) 4.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6 to 8.0); p = 0.004) and EQ-5D (DIM 0.146 (95% CI 0.059 to 0.233); p = 0.001) compared with patients without a VTE. After adjusting for confounding variables VTE remained a significant independent predictor associated with a worse postoperative OKS (DIM -5.4 (95% CI -8.4 to -2.4); p < 0.001), and EQ-5D score (DIM-0.169 (95% CI -0.251 to -0.087); p < 0.001). VTE was not independently associated with overall satisfaction after TKA (odds ratio 0.89 (95% CI 0.35 to 2.07); p = 0.717). Conclusion. Patients who had a VTE within six months of their TKA had clinically significantly worse knee-specific outcome (OKS) and general health (EQ-5D) scores one year postoperatively, but the overall satisfaction with their TKA was similar to those patients who did not have a VTE. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1254–1260

Aims. Biopsy of the periprosthetic tissue is an important diagnostic tool for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) as it enables the detection of the responsible microorganism with its sensitivity to antibiotics. We aimed to investigate how often the bacteria identified in the tissue analysis differed between samples obtained from preoperative biopsy and intraoperative revision surgery in cases of late PJI; and whether there was a therapeutic consequence. Methods. A total of 508 patients who required revision surgery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) (n = 231) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) (n = 277) because of component loosening underwent biopsy before revision surgery. The tissue samples collected at biopsy and during revision surgery were analyzed according to the criteria of the Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS). Results. In total, 178 (113 THA, 65 TKA) were classified as infected. The biopsy procedure had a sensitivity of 93.8%, a specificity of 97.3%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 94.9%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.7%, and an accuracy of 96.1%. Of the 178 infected patients, 26 showed a difference in the detected bacteria from the biopsy and the revision surgery (14.6%). This difference required a change to antibiotic therapy in only two cases (1.1%). Conclusion. Biopsy is a useful tool to diagnose PJI, but there may be a difference in the detected bacteria between the biopsy and revision surgery. However, this did not affect the choice of antibiotic therapy in most cases, rendering the clinical relevance of this phenomenon as low. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(3):329–335

Aims. For many designs of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) it remains unclear whether cemented or uncemented fixation provides optimal long-term survival. The main limitation in most studies is a retrospective or non-comparative study design. The same is true for comparative trials looking only at the survival rate as extensive sample sizes are needed to detect true differences in fixation and durability. Studies using radiostereometric analysis (RSA) techniques have shown to be highly predictive in detecting late occurring aseptic loosening at an early stage. To investigate the difference in predicted long-term survival between cemented, uncemented, and hybrid fixation of TKA, we performed a randomized controlled trial using RSA. Methods. A total of 105 patients were randomized into three groups (cemented, uncemented, and hybrid fixation of the ACS Mobile Bearing (ACS MB) knee system, implantcast). RSA examinations were performed on the first day after surgery and at scheduled follow-up visits at three months, six months, one year, and two years postoperatively. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were obtained preoperatively and after two years follow-up. Patients and follow-up investigators were blinded for the result of randomization. Results. RSA secondary stabilization did not show a significant difference between the three types of fixation. A maximum total point motion of less than 0.2 mm in the second postoperative year was shown in each group, which suggests stabilization of the implant. At 24 months after surgery, PROMs significantly improved compared to baseline in all treatment groups. No significant difference was observed between the three groups. Conclusion. Secondary stabilization measurements in this study demonstrated no significant difference between the groups. In all groups migration stabilized after initial settling of the implant. For this implant the long-term outcome is not expected to be influenced by the type of fixation to the bone. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):98–104

Aims. Early implant migration measured with radiostereometric analysis (RSA) has been proposed as a useful predictor of long-term fixation of tibial components in total knee arthroplasty. Evaluation of actual long-term fixation is of interest for cemented components, as well as for cementless fixation, which may offer long-term advantages once osseointegration has occurred. The objective of this study was to compare the long-term migration with one- and two-year migration to evaluate the predictive ability of short-term migration data and to compare migration and inducible displacement between cemented and cementless (porous metal monoblock) components at least ten years postoperatively. Patients and Methods. Patients who had participated in RSA migration studies with two-year follow-up were recruited to return for a long-term follow-up, at least ten years from surgery. Two cemented tibial designs from two manufacturers and one porous metal monoblock cementless tibial design were studied. At the long-term follow-up, patients had supine RSA examinations to determine migration and loaded examinations (single leg stance) to determine inducible displacement. In total, 79 patients (54 female) returned, with mean time since surgery of 12 years (10 to 14). There were 58 cemented and 21 cementless tibial components. Results. Migration at one year and two years was significantly correlated with long-term migration (p < 0.001). Median migration at the long-term follow-up was 0.6 mm (maximum total point motion; interquartile range (IQR) 0.4 to 0.9) for the cemented group and 0.6 mm. (IQR 0.3 to 1.1) for the cementless group with no difference between groups (p = 0.99). Inducible displacement was significantly lower for the cementless components (p < 0.001). Conclusion. Long-term migration was strongly correlated with two-year migration. Although long-term migration was not different for cemented or cementless tibial components, inducible displacement at the long-term visit was significantly lower for these cementless components, suggesting superior fixation. These findings support the predictive value of short-term migration in determining long-term fixation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(7 Supple C):55–60

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine if the Oxford Knee and Hip Score (OKHS) can accurately predict when a primary knee or hip referral is deemed nonsurgical versus surgical by the surgeon during their first consultation, and to identify nonsurgical OKHS screening thresholds. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed pre-consultation OKHS for all consecutive primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) consultations of a single surgeon over three years. The 1436 knees (1016 patients) and 478 hips (388 patients) included were categorized based on the surgeon’s decision into those offered surgery during the first consultation versus those not (nonsurgical). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. Results. Oxford Scores were better for the nonsurgical cohorts (p < 0.001) and correlated with the surgical decision (p < 0.001). ROC area under the curve values for knees (0.83, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.81 to 0.85) and hips (0.87, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) were excellent. A conservative and effective threshold for knees is Oxford Knee Score (OKS) > 32 points (sensitivity = 0.997, negative predictive value (NPV) = 0.992) and for hips is Oxford Hip Score (OHS) > 34 points (sensitivity = 0.997, NPV = 0.978). Severable potential lower OKHS thresholds were identified. Conclusion. Pre-consultation OKHS demonstrate good ability to predict when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed nonsurgical in a single surgeon’s practice. Multiple OKHS thresholds can effectively screen out nonsurgical referrals. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):23–30

Aims. Psychological factors play a critical role in patient presentation, satisfaction, and outcomes. Pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression are important to consider, as they are associated with poorer outcomes and are potentially modifiable. The aim of this study was to assess the level of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression in patients with a range of hip pathology and to evaluate their relationship with patient-reported psychosocial and functional outcome measures. Patients and Methods. Patients presenting to a tertiary-centre specialist hip clinic were prospectively evaluated for outcomes of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Validated assessments were undertaken such as: the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), and the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12). Patient characteristics and demographics were also recorded. Multiple linear regression modelling, with adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variable selection, was used for analysis. Results. A total of 328 patients were identified for inclusion, with diagnoses of hip dysplasia (DDH; n = 50), femoroacetabular impingement (FAI; n = 55), lateral trochanteric pain syndrome (LTP; n = 23), hip osteoarthrosis (OA; n = 184), and avascular necrosis of the hip (AVN; n = 16) with a mean age of 31.0 years (14 to 65), 38.5 years (18 to 64), 63.7 years (20 to 78), 63.5 years (18 to 91), and 39.4 years (18 to 71), respectively. The percentage of patients with abnormal levels of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, or depression was: 22.0%, 16.0%, and 12.0% for DDH, respectively; 9.1%, 10.9%, and 7.3% for FAI, respectively; 13.0%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for LTP, respectively; 21.7%, 11.4%, and 14.1% for OA, respectively; and 25.0%, 43.8%, and 6.3% for AVN, respectively. HADS Anxiety (HADSA) and Hip Disability Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Activities of Daily Living subscale (HOOS ADL) predicted the PCS total (adjusted R. 2. = 0.4599). Age, HADS Depression (HADSD), and PCS total predicted HADSA (adjusted R. 2. = 0.4985). Age, HADSA, patient’s percentage of perceived function, PCS total, and HOOS Quality of Life subscale (HOOS QOL) predicted HADSD (adjusted R. 2. = 0.5802). Conclusion. Patients with hip pathology may exhibit significant pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Identifying these factors and understanding the impact of psychosocial function could help improve patient treatment outcomes. Perioperative multidisciplinary assessment may be a beneficial part of comprehensive orthopaedic hip care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:800–807

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. This pilot study tested the performance of a rapid assay for diagnosing prosthetic joint infection (PJI), which measures synovial fluid calprotectin from total hip and knee revision patients. Methods. A convenience series of 69 synovial fluid samples from revision patients at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital were collected intraoperatively (52 hips, 17 knees) and frozen. Synovial fluid calprotectin was measured retrospectively using a new commercially available lateral flow assay for PJI diagnosis (Lyfstone AS) and compared to International Consensus Meeting (ICM) 2018 criteria and clinical case review (ICM-CR) gold standards. Results. According to ICM, 24 patients were defined as PJI positive and the remaining 45 were negative. The overall accuracy of the lateral flow test compared to ICM was 75.36% (52/69, 95% CI 63.51% to 84.95%), sensitivity and specificity were 75.00% (18/24, 95% CI 53.29% to 90.23%) and 75.56% (34/45, 95% CI 60.46% to 87.12%), respectively, positive predictive value (PPV) was 62.07% (18/29, 95% CI 48.23% to 74.19%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 85.00% (34/40, 95% CI 73.54% to 92.04%), and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.78 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.87). Patient data from discordant cases were reviewed by the clinical team to develop the ICM-CR gold standard. The lateral flow test performance improved significantly when compared to ICM-CR, with accuracy increasing to 82.61% (57/69, 95% CI 71.59% to 90.68%), sensitivity increasing to 94.74% (18/19, 95% CI 73.97% to 99.87%), NPV increasing to 97.50% (39/40, 95% CI 85.20% to 99.62%), and AUC increasing to 0.91 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.96). Test performance was better in knees (100.00% accurate (17/17, 95% CI 80.49% to 100.00%)) compared to hips (76.92% accurate (40/52, 95% CI 63.16% to 87.47%)). Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the calprotectin lateral flow assay could be an effective diagnostic test for PJI, however additional prospective studies testing fresh samples are required. Cite this article:Bone Joint Res. 2020;9(5):202–210

Aims. Periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is an established treatment for acetabular dysplasia. It has also been proposed as a treatment for patients with acetabular retroversion. By reviewing a large cohort, we aimed to test whether outcome is equivalent for both types of morphology and identify factors that influenced outcome. Methods. A single-centre, retrospective cohort study was performed on patients with acetabular retroversion treated with PAO (n = 62 hips). Acetabular retroversion was diagnosed clinically and radiologically (presence of a crossover sign, posterior wall sign, lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) between 20° and 35°). Outcomes were compared with a control group of patients undergoing PAO for dysplasia (LCEA < 20°; n = 86 hips). Femoral version was recorded. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), complications, and reoperation rates were measured. Results. The mean Non-Arthritic Hip Score (NAHS) preoperatively was 58.6 (SD 16.1) for the dysplastic hips and 52.5 (SD 12.7) for the retroverted hips (p = 0.145). Postoperatively, mean NAHS was 83.0 (SD 16.9) and 76.7 (SD 17.9) for dysplastic and retroverted hips respectively (p = 0.041). Difference between pre- and postoperative NAHS was slightly lower in the retroverted hips (18.3 (SD 22.1)) compared to the dysplastic hips (25.2 (SD 15.2); p = 0.230). At mean 3.5 years’ follow-up (SD 1.9), one hip needed a revision PAO and no hips were converted to total hip arthroplasty (THA) in the retroversion group. In the control group, six hips (7.0%) were revised to THA. No differences in complications (p = 0.106) or in reoperation rate (p = 0.087) were seen. Negative predictors of outcome for patients undergoing surgery for retroversion were female sex, obesity, hypermobility, and severely decreased femoral anteversion. Conclusion. A PAO is an effective surgical intervention for acetabular retroversion and produces similar improvements when used to treat dysplasia. Femoral version should be routinely assessed in these patients and when extremely low (< 0°), as an additional procedure to address this abnormality may be necessary. Females with signs of hypermobility should also be consulted of the likely guarded improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(9):757–764

Aims. Identifying predictors of compartment syndrome in the foot after a fracture of the calcaneus may lead to earlier diagnosis and treatment. The aim of our study was to identify any such predictors. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 303 patients (313 fractures) with a fracture of the calcaneus who presented to us between October 2008 and September 2016. The presence of compartment syndrome and potential predictors were identified by reviewing their medical records. Potential predictors included age, gender, concomitant foot injury, mechanism of injury, fracture classification, time from injury to admission, underlying illness, use of anticoagulant/antiplatelet agents, smoking status and occupation. Associations with predictors were analyzed using logistic regression analysis. Results. Of the 313 fractures of the calcaneus, 12 (3.8%) developed a compartment syndrome. A Sanders type IV fracture was the only strongly associated factor (odds ratio 21.67, p = 0.007). Other variables did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion. A Sanders type IV fracture is the best predictor of compartment syndrome after a fracture of the calcaneus. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:303–8

Aims. Preoperative diagnosis is important for revision surgery after prosthetic joint infection (PJI). The purpose of our study was to determine whether reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), which is used to detect bacterial ribosomal RNA (rRNA) preoperatively, can reveal PJI in low volumes of aspirated fluid. Methods. We acquired joint fluid samples (JFSs) by preoperative aspiration from patients who were suspected of having a PJI and failed arthroplasty; patients with preoperative JFS volumes less than 5 ml were enrolled. RNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and bacterial culture were performed, and diagnostic efficiency was compared between the two methods.According to established Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria, 21 of the 33 included patients were diagnosed with PJI. Results. RNA-based PCR exhibited 57.1% sensitivity, 91.7% specificity, 69.7% accuracy, 92.3% positive predictive value, and 55.0% negative predictive value. The corresponding values for culture were 28.6%, 83.3%, 48.5%, 75.0%, and 40.0%, respectively. A significantly higher sensitivity was thus obtained with the PCR method versus the culture method. Conclusion. In situations in which only a small JFS volume can be acquired, RNA-based PCR analysis increases the utility of preoperative puncture for patients who require revision surgery due to suspected PJI. Cite this article:Bone Joint Res. 2020;9(5):219–224

Aims. The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. Methods. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. Results. By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. Conclusion. There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103–110