Aims. The aim of this study was to determine satisfaction rates after hip and knee arthroplasty in patients who did not respond to postoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), characteristics of non-responders, and contact preferences to maximize response rates. Methods. A prospective cohort study of patients planned to undergo hip arthroplasty (n = 713) and knee arthroplasty (n = 737) at a UK university teaching hospital who had completed preoperative PROMs questionnaires, including the EuroQol five-dimension health-related quality of life score, and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Follow-up questionnaires were sent by post at one year, including satisfaction scoring. Attempts were made to contact patients who did not initially respond. Univariate, logistic regression, and receiver operator curve analysis was performed. Results. At one year, 667 hip patients (93.5%) and 685 knee patients (92.9%) had undergone surgery and were alive. No response was received from 151/667 hip patients (22.6%), 83 (55.0%) of whom were ultimately contacted); or from 108/685 knee patients (15.8%), 91 (84.3%) of whom were ultimately contacted. There was no difference in satisfaction after arthroplasty between initial non-responders and responders for hips (74/81 satisfied vs 476/516 satisfied; p = 0.847) or knees (81/93 satisfied vs 470/561 satisfied; p = 0.480). Initial non-response and persistent non-response was associated with younger age, higher BMIs, and worse preoperative PROMs for both hip and knee patients (p < 0.050). Being in employment was associated with persistent non-response for hip patients (p = 0.047). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that younger age (p < 0.038), higher BMI (p = 0.018), and poorer preoperative OHS (p = 0.031) were independently associated with persistent non-response to hip PROMs. No independent associations were identified for knees. Using a threshold of > 66.4 years predicted a preference for contact by post (area under the curve 0.723 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.647 to 0.799; p < 0.001, though this CI crosses the 0.7 limit considered reliable). Conclusion. The majority of initial non-responders were ultimately contactable with effort. Satisfaction rates were not inferior in patients who did not initially respond to PROMs. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):275–283

Aims. Although total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly successful procedure, about 20% of patients remain dissatisfied postoperatively. This proportion is derived from dichotomous models of the assessment of surgical success or failure, which may not reflect the spectrum of outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore differing responses to surgery, and assess whether there are distinct groups of patients with differing patterns of outcome. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of a UK multicentre TKA longitudinal cohort study. We used a group-based trajectory modelling analysis of Oxford Knee Score (OKS) in the first year following surgery with longitudinal data involving five different timepoints and multiple predictor variables. Associations between the derived trajectory groups and categorical baseline variables were assessed, and predictors of trajectory group membership were identified using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, as appropriate. The final model was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (age, sex) and baseline OKS. Results. Data from 731 patients were available for analysis. Three distinct trajectories of outcome were identified: “poor” 14.0%, “modest” 39.1%, and “good” 46.9%. The predicted probability of membership for patients assigned to each trajectory group was high (0.89 to 0.93). Preoperative mental, physical health, and psychosocial factors determined which trajectory is likely to be followed. Poor responders were characterized by a comparatively small number of factors, preoperative expectations of pain and limitations, coping strategies, and a lower baseline physical health status, while the good responders were characterized by a combination of clinical, psychosocial, mental health, and quality of life factors. Conclusion. We identified three distinct response trajectories in patients undergoing TKA. Controlling for baseline score, age, and sex, psychosocial factors such as expectations of pain and limited function and poor coping strategies differentiated the trajectory groups, suggesting a role for preoperative psychosocial support in optimizing the clinical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1096–1102

Aims. The aims of this study were to investigate the ability to kneel after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) without patellar resurfacing, and its effect on patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Secondary aims included identifying which kneeling positions were most important to patients, and the influence of radiological parameters on the ability to kneel before and after TKA. Methods. This prospective longitudinal study involved 209 patients who underwent single radius cruciate-retaining TKA without patellar resurfacing. Preoperative EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), Oxford Knee Score (OKS), and the ability to achieve four kneeling positions were assessed including a single leg kneel, a double leg kneel, a high-flexion kneel, and a praying position. The severity of radiological osteoarthritis (OA) was graded and the pattern of OA was recorded intraoperatively. The flexion of the femoral component, posterior condylar offset, and anterior femoral offset were measured radiologically. At two to four years postoperatively, 151 patients with a mean age of 70.0 years (SD 9.44) were included. Their mean BMI was 30.4 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.36) and 60 were male (40%). They completed EQ-5D, OKS, and Kujala scores, assessments of the ability to kneel, and a visual analogue scale for anterior knee pain and satisfaction. Results. The ability to kneel in the four positions improved in between 29 (19%) and 53 patients (35%) after TKA, but declined in between 35 (23%) and 46 patients (30%). Single-leg kneeling was most important to patients. After TKA, 62 patients (41%) were unable to achieve a single-leg kneel, 76 (50%) were unable to achieve a double-leg kneel, 102 (68%) were unable to achieve a high-flexion kneel and 61 (40%) were unable to achieve a praying position. Posterolateral cartilage loss significantly affected preoperative deep flexion kneeling (p = 0.019). A postoperative inability to kneel was significantly associated with worse OKS, Kujala scores, and satisfaction (p < 0.05). Multivariable regression analysis identified significant independent associations with the ability to kneel after TKA (p < 0.05): better preoperative EQ-5D and flexion of the femoral component for single-leg kneeling; the ability to achieve it preoperatively and flexion of the femoral component for double-leg kneeling; male sex for high-flexion kneeling; and the ability to achieve it preoperatively, anterior femoral offset, and patellar cartilage loss for the praying position. Conclusion. The ability to kneel was important to patients and significantly influenced knee-specific PROMs, but was poorly restored by TKA with equal chances of improvement or decline. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1514–1525

Objectives. The primary aim of this study was to assess the reproducibility of the recalled preoperative Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) one year following arthroplasty for a cohort of patients. The secondary aim was to assess the reliability of a patient’s recollection of their own preoperative OHS and OKS one year following surgery. Methods. A total of 335 patients (mean age 72.5; 22 to 92; 53.7% female) undergoing total hip arthroplasty (n = 178) and total knee arthroplasty (n = 157) were prospectively assessed. Patients undergoing hip and knee arthroplasty completed an OHS or OKS, respectively, preoperatively and were asked to recall their preoperative condition while completing the same score one year after surgery. Results. A mean difference of 0.04 points (95% confidence intervals (CI) -15.64 to 15.72, p = 0.97) between the actual and the recalled OHS was observed. The mean difference in the OKS was 1.59 points (95% CI -11.57 to 14.75, p = 0.10). There was excellent reliability for the ‘average measures’ intra-class correlation for both the OHS (r = 0.802) and the OKS (r = 0.772). However, this reliability was diminished for the individuals OHS (r = 0.670) and OKS (r = 0.629) using single measures intra-class correlation. Bland–Altman plots demonstrated wide variation in the individual patient’s ability to recall their preoperative score (95% CI ± 16 for OHS, 95% CI ± 13 for OKS). Conclusion. Prospective preoperative collection of OHS and OKS remains the benchmark. Using recalled scores one year following hip and knee arthroplasty is an alternative when used to assess a cohort of patients. However, the recall of an individual patient’s preoperative score should not be relied upon due to the diminished reliability and wide CI. Cite this article: T. F. M. Yeoman, N. D. Clement, D. Macdonald, M. Moran. Recall of preoperative Oxford Hip and Knee Scores one year after arthroplasty is an alternative and reliable technique when used for a cohort of patients. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:351–356. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.75.BJR-2017-0259.R1

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To assess the cost-effectiveness of a two-layer compression bandage versus a standard wool and crepe bandage following total knee arthroplasty, using patient-level data from the Knee Replacement Bandage Study (KReBS).

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The Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) is a 12-item measure commonly used for the assessment of shoulder surgeries. This study explores whether computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a shortened, individually tailored questionnaire while maintaining test accuracy.

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In total knee arthroplasty (TKA), blood loss continues internally after surgery is complete. Typically, the total loss over 48 postoperative hours can be around 1,300 ml, with most occurring within the first 24 hours. We hypothesize that the full potential of tranexamic acid (TXA) to decrease TKA blood loss has not yet been harnessed because it is rarely used beyond the intraoperative period, and is usually withheld from ‘high-risk’ patients with a history of thromboembolic, cardiovascular, or cerebrovascular disease, a patient group who would benefit greatly from a reduced blood loss.

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It has been hypothesized that a unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is more likely to be revised than a total knee arthroplasty (TKA) because conversion surgery to a primary TKA is a less complicated procedure. The purpose of this study was to determine if there is a lower threshold for revising a UKA compared with TKA based on Oxford Knee Scores (OKSs) and range of movement (ROM) at the time of revision.

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We conducted a randomised controlled trial to assess the accuracy of positioning and alignment of the components in total knee arthroplasty (TKA), comparing those undertaken using standard intramedullary cutting jigs and those with patient-specific instruments (PSI).

Aims. The influence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on the outcome after hip and knee arthroplasty is debated. We aimed to investigate the change in patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) scores after hip and knee arthroplasty, comparing patients with and without MetS. Methods. From 1 May 2017 to 30 November 2019, a prospective cohort of 2,586 patients undergoing elective unilateral hip and knee arthroplasty was established in Denmark. Data from national registries and a local database were used to determine the presence of MetS. Patients’ scores on Oxford Hip Score (OHS) or Oxford Knee Score (OKS), EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Activity Scale, and Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) at baseline, three, 12, and 24 months after surgery were collected. Primary outcome was the difference between groups from baseline to 12 months in OHS and OKS. Secondary outcomes were scores of OHS and OKS at three and 24 months and EQ-5D-5L, UCLA Activity Scale, and FJS at three, 12, and 24 months after surgery. Generalized linear mixed model was applied, adjusting for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and smoking to present marginal mean and associated 95% CIs. Results. A total of 62.3% (1,611/2,586) of the cohort met the criteria for MetS. Both groups showed similar increase in mean OHS (MetS group 22.5 (95% CI 21.8 to 23.1), non-MetS group 22.1 (21.3 to 22.8); p = 0.477) and mean OKS (MetS group 18.0 (17.4 to 18.6), non-MetS group 17.8 (17.0 to 18.7); p = 0.722) at 12 months' follow-up. Between groups, similar improvements were seen for OHS and OKS at three and 24 months postoperatively and for the mean EQ-5D-5L, EuroQol-visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), UCLA Activity Scale, and FJS at every timepoint. Conclusion. Patients meeting the criteria for MetS obtain the same improvement in PROM scores as individuals without MetS up to 24 months after hip and knee arthroplasty. This is important for the clinician to take into account when assessing and advising patients with MetS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1074–1083

Aims. During total knee replacement (TKR), surgeons can choose whether or not to resurface the patella, with advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Recently, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended always resurfacing the patella, rather than never doing so. NICE found insufficient evidence on selective resurfacing (surgeon’s decision based on intraoperative findings and symptoms) to make recommendations. If effective, selective resurfacing could result in optimal individualized patient care. This protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of primary TKR with always patellar resurfacing compared to selective patellar resurfacing. Methods. The PAtellar Resurfacing Trial (PART) is a patient- and assessor-blinded multicentre, pragmatic parallel two-arm randomized superiority trial of adults undergoing elective primary TKR for primary osteoarthritis at NHS hospitals in England, with an embedded internal pilot phase (ISRCTN 33276681). Participants will be randomly allocated intraoperatively on a 1:1 basis (stratified by centre and implant type (cruciate-retaining vs cruciate-sacrificing)) to always resurface or selectively resurface the patella, once the surgeon has confirmed sufficient patellar thickness for resurfacing and that constrained implants are not required. The primary analysis will compare the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) one year after surgery. Secondary outcomes include patient-reported outcome measures at three months, six months, and one year (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, OKS, EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire, patient satisfaction, postoperative complications, need for further surgery, resource use, and costs). Cost-effectiveness will be measured for the lifetime of the patient. Overall, 530 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect a four-point difference in OKS between the groups one year after surgery, assuming up to 40% resurfacing in the selective group. Conclusion. The trial findings will provide evidence about the clinical and cost-effectiveness of always patellar resurfacing compared to selective patellar resurfacing. This will inform future NICE guidelines on primary TKR and the role of selective patellar resurfacing. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):464–478

Aims. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the influence of patellar resurfacing following cruciate-retaining (CR) and posterior-stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) on the incidence of anterior knee pain, knee-specific patient-reported outcome measures, complication rates, and reoperation rates. Methods. A systematic review of MEDLINE, PubMed, and Google Scholar was performed to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) according to search criteria. Search terms used included: arthroplasty, replacement, knee (Mesh), TKA, prosthesis, patella, patellar resurfacing, and patellar retaining. RCTs that compared patellar resurfacing versus unresurfaced in primary TKA were included for further analysis. Studies were evaluated using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network assessment tool for quality and minimization of bias. Data were synthesized and meta-analysis performed. Results. There were 4,135 TKAs (2,068 resurfaced and 2,027 unresurfaced) identified in 35 separate cohorts from 33 peer-reviewed studies. Anterior knee pain rates were significantly higher in unresurfaced knees overall (odds ratio (OR) 1.84; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 2.83; p = 0.006) but more specifically associated with CR implants (OR 1.95; 95% CI 1.0 to 3.52; p = 0.030). There was a significantly better Knee Society function score (mean difference (MD) -1.98; 95% CI -1.1 to -2.84; p < 0.001) and Oxford Knee Score (MD -2.24; 95% CI -0.07 to -4.41; p = 0.040) for PS implants when patellar resurfacing was performed, but these differences did not exceed the minimal clinically important difference for these scores. There were no significant differences in complication rates or infection rates according to implant design. There was an overall significantly higher reoperation rate for unresurfaced TKA (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.06); p = 0.030) but there was no difference between PS or CR TKA. Conclusion. Patellar resurfacing, when performed with CR implants, resulted in lower rates of anterior knee pain and, when used with a PS implant, yielded better knee-specific functional outcomes. Patellar resurfacing was associated with a lower risk of reoperation overall, but implant type did not influence this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):622–634

Aims. Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with a highly congruent condylar-stabilized (CS) articulation may be advantageous due to increased stability versus cruciate-retaining (CR) designs, while mitigating the limitations of a posterior-stabilized construct. The aim was to assess ten-year implant survival and functional outcomes of a cemented single-radius TKA with a CS insert, performed without posterior cruciate ligament sacrifice. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing TKA at a specialist centre in the UK between November 2010 and December 2012. Data were collected using a bespoke electronic database and cross-referenced with national arthroplasty audit data, with variables including: preoperative characteristics, intraoperative factors, complications, and mortality status. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were collected by a specialist research team at ten years post-surgery. There were 536 TKAs, of which 308/536 (57.5%) were in female patients. The mean age was 69.0 years (95% CI 45.0 to 88.0), the mean BMI was 32.2 kg/m. 2. (95% CI 18.9 to 50.2), and 387/536 (72.2%) survived to ten years. There were four revisions (0.7%): two deep infections (requiring debridement and implant retention), one aseptic loosening, and one haemosiderosis. Results. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated no difference in implant survival according to sex, age, or obesity status. Ten-year PROMs were available for 196/387 (50.6%) surviving patients and were excellent: mean Oxford Knee Score 34.4 (95% CI 32.7 to 36.1); mean Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) 51.2 (95% CI 16.1 to 86.3); mean EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire score 69.9 (95% CI 46.8 to 93.0); 141/196 (71.9%) achieved the 22-point FJS patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS); and 156/196 (79.6%) were “very satisfied or satisfied”. Conclusion. This is the only large study reporting ten-year implant survival and functional outcomes of TKA using a cemented single-radius design and with a CS tibial bearing construct. The findings of excellent implant survival, safety, and functional outcomes indicate that this combination is a safe and effective option in routine TKA. Further investigation of this single-radius design TKA with CS tibial bearings with well-matched patient study groups will allow further insight into the performance of these implants. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):808–816

Aims. Simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been used due to its financial advantages, overall resource usage, and convenience for the patient. The training model where a trainee performs the first TKA, followed by the trainer surgeon performing the second TKA, is a unique model to our institution. This study aims to analyze the functional and clinical outcomes of bilateral simultaneous TKA when performed by a trainee or a supervising surgeon, and also to assess these outcomes based on which side was done by the trainee or by the surgeon. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of all simultaneous bilateral TKAs performed by a single surgeon in an academic institution between May 2003 and November 2017. Exclusion criteria were the use of partial knee arthroplasty procedures, staged bilateral procedures, and procedures not performed by the senior author on one side and the trainee on another. Primary clinical outcomes of interest included revision and re-revision. Primary functional outcomes included the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and patient satisfaction scores. Results. In total, 315 patients (630 knees) were included for analysis. Of these, functional scores were available for 189 patients (378 knees). There was a 1.9% (n = 12) all-cause revision rate for all knees. Overall, 12 knees in ten patients were revised, and both right and left knees were revised in two patients. The OKS and patient satisfaction scores were comparable for trainees and supervising surgeons. A majority of patients (88%, n = 166) were either highly likely (67%, n = 127) or likely (21%, n = 39) to recommend bilateral TKAs to a friend. Conclusion. Simultaneous bilateral TKA can be used as an effective teaching model for trainees without any significant impact on patient clinical or functional outcomes. Excellent functional and clinical outcomes in both knees, regardless of whether the performing surgeon is a trainee or supervising surgeon, can be achieved with simultaneous bilateral TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):29–34

Aims. Bi-unicondylar arthroplasty (Bi-UKA) is a bone and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL)-preserving alternative to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) when the patellofemoral joint is preserved. The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical outcomes and biomechanics of Bi-UKA. Methods. Bi-UKA subjects (n = 22) were measured on an instrumented treadmill, using standard gait metrics, at top walking speeds. Age-, sex-, and BMI-matched healthy (n = 24) and primary TKA (n = 22) subjects formed control groups. TKA subjects with preoperative patellofemoral or tricompartmental arthritis or ACL dysfunction were excluded. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) were compared. Bi-UKA, then TKA, were performed on eight fresh frozen cadaveric knees, to investigate knee extensor efficiency under controlled laboratory conditions, using a repeated measures study design. Results. Bi-UKA walked 20% faster than TKA (Bi-UKA mean top walking speed 6.7 km/h (SD 0.9),TKA 5.6 km/h (SD 0.7), p < 0.001), exhibiting nearer-normal vertical ground reaction forces in maximum weight acceptance and mid-stance, with longer step and stride lengths compared to TKA (p < 0.048). Bi-UKA subjects reported higher OKS (p = 0.004) and EQ-5D (p < 0.001). In vitro, Bi-UKA generated the same extensor moment as native knees at low flexion angles, while reduced extensor moment was measured following TKA (p < 0.003). Conversely, at higher flexion angles, the extensor moment of TKA was normal. Over the full range, the extensor mechanism was more efficient following Bi-UKA than TKA (p < 0.028). Conclusion. Bi-UKA had more normal gait characteristics and improved patient-reported outcomes, compared to matched TKA subjects. This can, in part, be explained by differences in extensor efficiency. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(11):723–733

A postal questionnaire was sent to 10 000 patients more than one year after their total knee replacement (TKR). They were assessed using the Oxford knee score and were asked whether they were satisfied, unsure or unsatisfied with their TKR. The response rate was 87.4% (8231 of 9417 eligible questionnaires) and a total of 81.8% (6625 of 8095) of patients were satisfied. Multivariable regression modelling showed that patients with higher scores relating to the pain and function elements of the Oxford knee score had a lower level of satisfaction (p < 0.001), and that ongoing pain was a stronger predictor of this. Female gender and a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis were found to be predictors of lower levels of patient satisfaction. Differences in the rate of satisfaction were also observed in relation to age, the American Society of Anesthesiologists grade and the type of prosthesis. This study has provided data on the Oxford knee score and the expected levels of satisfaction at one year after TKR. The results should act as a benchmark of practice in the United Kingdom and provide a baseline for peer comparison between institutions

Aims. Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) occurs in approximately 1% to 2% of total knee arthroplasties (TKA) presenting multiple challenges, such as difficulty in diagnosis, technical complexity, and financial costs. Two-stage exchange is the gold standard for treating PJI but emerging evidence suggests 'two-in-one' single-stage revision as an alternative, delivering comparable outcomes, reduced morbidity, and cost-effectiveness. This study investigates five-year results of modified single-stage revision for treatment of PJI following TKA with bone loss. Methods. Patients were identified from prospective data on all TKA patients with PJI following the primary procedure. Inclusion criteria were: revision for PJI with bone loss requiring reconstruction, and a minimum five years’ follow-up. Patients were followed up for recurrent infection and assessment of function. Tools used to assess function were Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and American Knee Society Score (AKSS). Results. A total of 24 patients were included with a mean age of 72.7 years (SD 7.6), mean BMI of 33.3 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.7), and median ASA grade of 2 (interquartile range 2 to 4). Mean time from primary to revision was 3.0 years (10 months to 8.3 years). At revision, six patients had discharging sinus and three patients had negative cultures from tissue samples or aspirates. Two patients developed recurrence of infection: one was treated successfully with antibiotic suppression and one underwent debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention. Mean AKSS scores at two years showed significant improvement from baseline (27.1 (SD 10.2 ) vs 80.3 (SD 14.8); p < 0.001). There was no significant change in mean AKSS scores between two and five years (80.3 (SD 14.8 ) vs 74.1 (SD 19.8); p = 0.109). Five-year OKS scores were not significantly different compared to two-year scores (36.17 (SD 3.7) vs 33.0 (SD 8.5); p = 0.081). Conclusion. ‘Two-in-one’ single-stage revision is effective for treating PJI following TKA with bone loss, providing patients with sustained improvements in outcomes and infection clearance up to five years post-procedure. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(2):107–113

Aims. To determine the trajectories of patient reported pain and functional disability over five years following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A prospective, longitudinal cohort sub-study within the National Joint Registry (NJR) was undertaken. In all, 20,089 patients who underwent primary THA and 22,489 who underwent primary TKA between 2009 and 2010 were sent Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaires at six months, and one, three, and five years postoperatively. OHS and OKS were disaggregated into pain and function subscales. A k-means clustering procedure assigned each patient to a longitudinal trajectory group for pain and function. Ordinal regression was used to predict trajectory group membership using baseline OHS and OKS score, age, BMI, index of multiple deprivation, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Results. Data described two discrete trajectories for pain and function: ‘level 1’ responders (around 70% of cases) in whom a high level of improvement is sustained over five years, and ‘level 2’ responders who had sustained improvement, but at a lower level. Baseline patient variables were only weak predictors of pain trajectory and modest predictors of function trajectory. Those with worse baseline pain and function tended to show a greater likelihood of following a ‘level 2’ trajectory. Six-month patient-reported outcome measures data reliably predicted the class of five-year outcome trajectory for both pain and function. Conclusion. The available preoperative patient variables were not reliable predictors of postoperative pain and function after THA and TKA. Reviewing patient outcomes at six months postoperatively is a reliable indicator of outcome at five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1111–1118