Aims. The current global pandemic due to COVID-19 is generating significant burden on the health service in the UK. On 23 March 2020, the UK government issued requirements for a national lockdown. The aim of this multicentre study is to gain a greater understanding of the impact lockdown has had on the rates, mechanisms and types of injuries together with their management across a regional trauma service. Methods. Data was collected from an adult major trauma centre, paediatric major trauma centre, district general hospital, and a regional hand trauma unit. Data collection included patient demographics, injury mechanism, injury type and treatment required. Time periods studied corresponded with the two weeks leading up to lockdown in the UK, two weeks during lockdown, and the same two-week period in 2019. Results. There was a 55.7% (12,935 vs 5,733) reduction in total accident and emergency (A&E) attendances with a 53.7% (354 vs 164) reduction in trauma admissions during lockdown compared to 2019. The number of patients with fragility fractures requiring admission remained constant (32 patients in 2019 vs 31 patients during lockdown; p > 0.05). Road traffic collisions (57.1%, n = 8) were the commonest cause of major trauma admissions during lockdown. There was a significant increase in DIY related-hand injuries (26% (n = 13)) lockdown vs 8% (n = 11 in 2019, p = 0.006) during lockdown, which resulted in an increase in nerve injuries (12% (n = 6 in lockdown) vs 2.5% (n = 3 in 2019, p = 0.015) and hand infections (24% (n = 12) in lockdown vs 6.2% (n = 8) in 2019, p = 0.002). Conclusion. The national lockdown has dramatically reduced orthopaedic trauma admissions. The incidence of fragility fractures requiring surgery has not changed. Appropriate provision in theatres should remain in place to ensure these patients can be managed as a surgical priority. DIY-related hand injuries have increased which has led to an increased in nerve injuries requiring intervention

Aims. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of surgical repair to conservative treatment and subacromial decompression for the treatment of chronic/degenerative tears of the rotator cuff. Materials and Methods. PubMed, Cochrane database, and Medline were searched for randomized controlled trials published until March 2018. Included studies were assessed for methodological quality, and data were extracted for statistical analysis. The systematic review was conducted following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Results. Six studies were included. Surgical repair resulted in a statistically significantly better Constant–Murley Score (CMS) at one year compared with conservative treatment (mean difference 6.15; p = 0.002) and subacromial decompression alone (mean difference 5.81; p = 0.0004). In the conservatively treated group, 11.9% of patients eventually crossed over to surgical repair. Conclusion. The results of this review show that surgical repair results in significantly improved outcomes when compared with either conservative treatment or subacromial decompression alone for degenerative rotator cuff tears in older patients. However, the magnitude of the difference in outcomes between surgery and conservative treatment may be small and the ‘success rate’ of conservative treatment may be high, allowing surgeons to be judicious in choosing those patients who are most likely to benefit from surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1100–1106

Aims. Currently, there is no single, comprehensive national guideline for analgesic strategies for total joint replacement. We compared inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip arthroplasty (THA) versus total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in order to determine risk factors for increased inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip or knee arthroplasty. Methods. Outcomes after 92 primary total knee (n = 49) and hip (n = 43) arthroplasties were analyzed. Patients with repeat surgery within 90 days were excluded. Opioid use was recorded while inpatient and 90 days postoperatively. Outcomes included total opioid use, refills, use beyond 90 days, and unplanned clinical encounters for uncontrolled pain. Multivariate modelling determined the effect of surgery, regional nerve block (RNB) or neuraxial anesthesia (NA), and non-opioid medications after adjusting for demographics, ength of stay, and baseline opioid use. Results. TKAs had higher daily inpatient opioid use than THAs (in 5 mg oxycodone pill equivalents: median 12.0 vs 7.0; p < 0.001), and greater 90 day use (median 224.0 vs 100.5; p < 0.001). Opioid refills were more likely in TKA (84% vs 33%; p < 0.001). Patient who underwent TKA had higher independent risk of opioid use beyond 90 days than THA (adjusted OR 7.64; 95% SE 1.23 to 47.5; p = 0.01). Inpatient opioid use 24 hours before discharge was the strongest independent predictor of 90-day opioid use (p < 0.001). Surgical procedure, demographics, and baseline opioid use have greater influence on in/outpatient opioid demand than RNB, NA, or non-opioid analgesics. Conclusion. Opioid use following TKA and THA is most strongly predicted by surgical and patient factors. TKA was associated with higher postoperative opioid requirements than THA. RNB and NA did not diminish total inpatient or 90-day postoperative opioid consumption. The use of acetaminophen, gabapentin, or NSAIDs did not significantly alter inpatient opioid requirements. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:398–404

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the surgical dislocation approach and modified trapdoor procedure for the treatment of chondroblastoma of the femoral head. Patients and Methods. A total of 17 patients (ten boys, seven girls; mean age 16.4 years (11 to 26)) diagnosed with chondroblastoma of the femoral head who underwent surgical dislocation of the hip joint, modified trapdoor procedure, curettage, and bone grafting were enrolled in this study and were followed-up for a mean of 35.9 months (12 to 76). Healing and any local recurrence were assessed via clinical and radiological tests. Functional outcome was evaluated using the Musculoskeletal Tumour Society scoring system (MSTS). Patterns of bone destruction were evaluated using the Lodwick classification. Secondary osteoarthritis was classified via radiological analysis following the Kellgren–Lawrence grading system. Steinberg classification was used to evaluate osteonecrosis of the femoral head. Results. The epiphyseal plate was open, closing, and closed in five, five, and seven patients, respectively. In total, eight, six, and three patients were classified as having Lodwick classification IA, IB, and IC, respectively. Allogeneic and autogenous bone grafting was used in 13 and four patients, respectively. All patients had good bone healing and no local recurrence was observed. One patient developed osteonecrosis of the femoral head (Steinberg IA) and one developed secondary osteoarthritis of the hip joint (Kellgren–Lawrence Grade II). The mean postoperative MSTS functional score was 27.7 (24 to 30). Conclusion. Surgical dislocation and modified trapdoor procedures are safe and effective techniques for treating chondroblastoma in the femoral head. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:732–738

Aims. Survival rates and local control after resection of a sarcoma of the pelvis compare poorly to those of the limbs and have a high incidence of complications. The outcome for patients who need a hindquarter amputation (HQA) to treat a pelvic sarcoma is poor. Our aim was to evaluate the patient, tumour, and reconstructive factors that affect the survival of the patients who undergo HQA for primary or recurrent pelvic sarcoma. Methods. We carried out a retrospective review of all sarcoma patients who had undergone a HQA in a supraregional sarcoma unit between 1996 and 2018. Outcomes included oncological, surgical, and survival characteristics. Results. A total of 136 patients, with a mean age of 51 (12 to 83) underwent HQA, 91 for a bone sarcoma and 45 for a soft tissue sarcoma. The overall survival (OS) after primary HQA for a bone sarcoma was 90.7 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 64.1 to 117.2). In patients undergoing a secondary salvage HQA it was 90.3 months (95% CI 58.1 to 122.5) (p = 0.727). For those treated for a soft tissue sarcoma (STS), the mean OS was 59.3 months (95% CI 31.1 to 88.6) for patients with a primary HQA, and 12.5 months (95% CI 9.4 to 15.5) for those undergoing a secondary salvage HQA (p = 0.038). On multivariate analysis, high histological grade (hazard ratio (HR) 2.033, 95% CI 1.127 to 3.676; p = 0.018) and a diagnosis of STS (HR 1.653, 95% CI 1.027 to 2.660; p = 0.039) were associated with a poor prognosis. The 30-day mortality for patients with curative intent was 0.8% (1/128). For those in whom surgery was carried out with palliative intent it was 33.3% (2/6) (p = 0.001). In total, 53.7% (n = 73) of patients had at least one complication with 23.5% (n = 32) requiring at least one further operation. Direct closure was inferior to flap reconstruction in terms of complete primary wound healing (60.0% (3/5) vs 82.0% (82/100); p = 0.023). Conclusion. In carefully selected patients HQA is associated with satisfactory overall survival, with a low risk of perioperative mortality, but considerable morbidity. However, caution must be exercised when considering the procedure for palliation due to the high incidence of early postoperative mortality. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6):788–794

Aims

Dead-space management, following dead bone resection, is an important element of successful chronic osteomyelitis treatment. This study compared two different biodegradable antibiotic carriers used for dead-space management, and reviewed clinical and radiological outcomes. All cases underwent single-stage surgery and had a minimum one-year follow-up.

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The optimal choice of management for proximal humerus fractures (PHFs) has been increasingly discussed in the literature, and this work aimed to answer the following questions: 1) what are the incidence rates of PHF in the geriatric population in the USA; 2) what is the mortality rate after PHF in the elderly population, specifically for distinct treatment procedures; and 3) what factors influence the mortality rate?

Aims. The aims of this study were to determine the rates of surgical complications, reoperations, and readmissions following herniated lumbar disc surgery, and to investigate the impact of sociodemographic factors and comorbidity on the rate of such unfavourable events. Patients and Methods. This was a longitudinal observation study. Data from herniated lumbar disc operations were retrieved from a large medical database using a combination of procedure and diagnosis codes from all public hospitals in Norway from 1999 to 2013. The impact of age, gender, geographical affiliation, education, civil status, income, and comorbidity on unfavourable events were analyzed by logistic regression. Results. Of 34 639 operations, 2.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6 to 2.9) had a surgical complication, 2.1% (95% CI 2.0 to 2.3) had repeat surgery within 90 days, 2.4% (95% CI 2.2 to 2.5) had a non-surgical readmission within 90 days, and 6.7% (95% CI 6.4 to 6.9) experienced at least one of these unfavourable events. Unfavourable events were found to be associated with advanced age and comorbidity. Conclusion. The results suggest that surgical complications are less frequent than previously suggested. There are limited associations between sociodemographic patient characteristics and unfavourable events. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:470–477

The development of spinal deformity in children with underlying neurodisability can affect their ability to function and impact on their quality of life, as well as compromise provision of nursing care. Patients with neuromuscular spinal deformity are among the most challenging due to the number and complexity of medical comorbidities that increase the risk for severe intraoperative or postoperative complications. A multidisciplinary approach is mandatory at every stage to ensure that all nonoperative measures have been applied, and that the treatment goals have been clearly defined and agreed with the family. This will involve input from multiple specialities, including allied healthcare professionals, such as physiotherapists and wheelchair services. Surgery should be considered when there is significant impact on the patients’ quality of life, which is usually due to poor sitting balance, back or costo-pelvic pain, respiratory complications, or problems with self-care and feeding. Meticulous preoperative assessment is required, along with careful consideration of the nature of the deformity and the problems that it is causing. Surgery can achieve good curve correction and results in high levels of satisfaction from the patients and their caregivers. Modern modular posterior instrumentation systems allow an effective deformity correction. However, the risks of surgery remain high, and involvement of the family at all stages of decision-making is required in order to balance the risks and anticipated gains of the procedure, and to select those patients who can mostly benefit from spinal correction.

Aims

Navigation devices are designed to improve a surgeon’s accuracy in positioning the acetabular and femoral components in total hip arthroplasty (THA). The purpose of this study was to both evaluate the accuracy of an optical computer-assisted surgery (CAS) navigation system and determine whether preoperative spinopelvic mobility (categorized as hypermobile, normal, or stiff) increased the risk of acetabular component placement error.

Aims. This paper documents the epidemiology of adults (aged more than 18 years) with a calcaneal fracture who have been admitted to hospital in England since 2000. Secondary aims were to document whether publication of the United Kingdom Heel Fracture Trial (UK HeFT) influenced the proportion of patients admitted to hospital with a calcaneal fracture who underwent surgical treatment, and to determine whether there has been any recent change in the surgical technique used for these injuries. Patients and Methods. In England, the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data are recorded annually. Between 2000/01 and 2016/17, the number of adults admitted to an English NHS hospital with a calcaneal fracture and whether they underwent surgical treatment was determined. Results. During this 17-year period, 62 858 patients were admitted to hospital with a calcaneal fracture. The male-to-female ratio was 2.66:1. The mean annual incidence was 10.5/100 000 for men and 3.8/100 000 for women. The results of the UK HeFT were published in July 2014. The percentage of patients admitted with a calcaneal fracture undergoing internal fixation was 7.31% (3792/51 859) before and 7.38% (534/7229) after its publication. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.94). Since 2015, there has been a significant increase in the percentage of calcaneal fractures treated by closed reduction and internal fixation, as opposed to open reduction and internal fixation, from 7.7% (292/3792) to 13.29% (71/534) (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This study documents the epidemiology and trends in surgical treatment of calcaneal fractures in England. We established that surgeons did not change their practice in terms of offering surgery to these patients in response to the results of the UK HeFT. There has been a significant (p < 0.001) increase in the number of calcaneal fractures being treated surgically using less invasive procedures

Aims. To compare the cost-utility of standard dressing with incisional negative-pressure wound therapy (iNPWT) in adults with closed surgical wounds associated with major trauma to the lower limbs. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective based on data collected from the Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma (WHiST) multicentre randomized clinical trial. Health resource utilization was collected over a six-month post-randomization period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates while uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The incremental cost of standard dressing versus iNPWT over six months was £2,037 (95% confidence interval (CI) £349 to £3,724). There was an insignificant increment in QALYs gained in the iNPWT group (0.005, 95% CI -0.018 to 0.028). The probability of iNPWT being cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY was 1.9%. The results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusion. The within-trial economic evaluation suggests that iNPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to standard dressing in adults with closed surgical wounds to their lower limbs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(8):1072–1081

Objectives. The diagnosis of surgical site infection following endoprosthetic reconstruction for bone tumours is frequently a subjective diagnosis. Large clinical trials use blinded Central Adjudication Committees (CACs) to minimise the variability and bias associated with assessing a clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the level of inter-rater and intra-rater agreement in the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial. Materials and Methods. The Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens in Tumour Surgery (PARITY) trial CAC adjudicated 29 non-PARITY cases of lower extremity endoprosthetic reconstruction. The CAC members classified each case according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for surgical site infection (superficial, deep, or organ space). Combinatorial analysis was used to calculate the smallest CAC panel size required to maximise agreement. A final meeting was held to establish a consensus. Results. Full or near consensus was reached in 20 of the 29 cases. The Fleiss kappa value was calculated as 0.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35 to 0.53), or moderate agreement. The greatest statistical agreement was observed in the outcome of no infection, 0.61 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.72, substantial agreement). Panelists reached a full consensus in 12 of 29 cases and near consensus in five of 29 cases when CDC criteria were used (superficial, deep or organ space). A stable maximum Fleiss kappa of 0.46 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.35) at CAC sizes greater than three members was obtained. Conclusions. There is substantial agreement among the members of the PARITY CAC regarding the presence or absence of surgical site infection. Agreement on the level of infection, however, is more challenging. Additional clinical information routinely collected by the prospective PARITY trial may improve the discriminatory capacity of the CAC in the parent study for the diagnosis of infection. Cite this article: J. Nuttall, N. Evaniew, P. Thornley, A. Griffin, B. Deheshi, T. O’Shea, J. Wunder, P. Ferguson, R. L. Randall, R. Turcotte, P. Schneider, P. McKay, M. Bhandari, M. Ghert. The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:347–352. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.58.BJR-2016-0036.R1

Objectives. The PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation (PROFHER) trial has recently demonstrated that surgery is non-superior to non-operative treatment in the management of displaced proximal humeral fractures. The objective of this study was to assess current surgical practice in the context of the PROFHER trial in terms of patient demographics, injury characteristics and the nature of the surgical treatment. Methods. A total of ten consecutive patients undergoing surgery for the treatment of a proximal humeral fracture from each of 11 United Kingdom hospitals were retrospectively identified over a 15 month period between January 2014 and March 2015. Data gathered for the 110 patients included patient demographics, injury characteristics, mode of surgical fixation, the grade of operating surgeon and the cost of the surgical implants. Results. A majority of the patients were female (66%, 73 of 110). The mean patient age was 62 years (range 18 to 89). A majority of patients met the inclusion criteria for the PROFHER trial (75%, 83 of 110). Plate fixation was the most common mode of surgery (68%, 75 patients), followed by intramedullary fixation (12%, 13 patients), reverse shoulder arthroplasty (10%, 11 patients) and hemiarthroplasty (7%, eight patients). The consultant was either the primary operating surgeon or supervising the operating surgeon in a large majority of cases (91%, 100 patients). Implant costs for plate fixation were significantly less than both hemiarthroplasty (p < 0.05) and reverse shoulder arthroplasty (p < 0.0001). Implant costs for intramedullary fixation were significantly less than plate fixation (p < 0.01), hemiarthroplasty (p < 0.0001) and reverse shoulder arthroplasty (p < 0.0001). Conclusions. Our study has shown that the majority of a representative sample of patients currently undergoing surgical treatment for a proximal humeral fracture in these United Kingdom centres met the inclusion criteria for the PROFHER trial and that a proportion of these patients may, therefore, have been effectively managed non-operatively. Cite this article: Mr B. J. F. Dean. A review of current surgical practice in the operative treatment of proximal humeral fractures: Does the PROFHER trial demonstrate a need for change? Bone Joint Res 2016;5:178–184. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.55.2000596

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). . Patients and Methods. The New Zealand Joint Registry database was analysed, using revision surgery for PJI at six and 12 months after surgery as primary outcome measures. Statistical associations between revision for infection, with common and definable surgical and patient factors were tested. Results. A total of 64 566 primary TKAs have been recorded on the registry between 1999 and 2012 with minimum follow-up of 12 months. Multivariate analysis showed statistically significant associations with revision for PJI between male gender (odds ratio (OR) 1.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24 to 2.74), previous surgery (osteotomy (OR 2.45 95% CI 1.2 to 5.03), ligament reconstruction (OR 1.85, 95% CI 0.68 to 5.00)), the use of laminar flow (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.47) and the use of antibiotic-laden cement (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.13). There was a trend towards significance (p = 0.052) with the use of surgical helmet systems at six months (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.34). Conclusion. These findings show that patient factors remain the most important in terms of predicting early PJI following TKA. Furthermore, we found no evidence that modern surgical helmet systems reduce the risk of PJI and laminar flow systems may actually increase risk in TKA. The use of this registry data assists the estimation of the risk of PJI for individual patients, which is important for both informed consent and the interpretation of infection rates at different institutions. . Take home message: Infection rates in TKA are related to both individual patient and surgical factors, and some modern methods of reducing infection may actually increase infection risk. . Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:334–40

Aims. This study sought to compare the rate of deep surgical site infection (SSI), as measured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definition, after surgery for a fracture of the hip between patients treated with standard dressings and those treated with incisional negative pressure wound therapy (iNPWT). Secondary objectives included determining the rate of recruitment and willingness to participate in the trial. Methods. The study was a two-arm multicentre randomized controlled feasibility trial that was embedded in the World Hip Trauma Evaluation cohort study. Any patient aged > 65 years having surgery for hip fracture at five recruitment centres in the UK was considered to be eligible. They were randomly allocated to have either a standard dressing or iNPWT after closure of the wound. The primary outcome measure was deep SSI at 30 and 90 days, diagnosed according to the CDC criteria. Secondary outcomes were: rate of recruitment; further surgery within 120 days; health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using the EuroQol five-level five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L); and related complications within 120 days as well as mobility and residential status at this time. Results. A total of 462 valid randomizations were carried out (232 and 230 in the standard dressing and iNPWT groups, respectively). In the standard dressing group, 14 of 218 patients (6.4%) developed deep SSI. In the iNPWT group, four of 214 patients (1.9%) developed deep SSI. This gives a total rate of SSI of 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7% to 6.5%). Patients and surgeons were willing to participate in the study with 462 patients being recruited from a possible 749 (62.3%). Conclusion. The rate of deep SSI 30 days after surgery for a fracture of the hip was 4%, which makes a study comparing the clinical effectiveness of standard dressings and iNPWT feasible. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):755–761

Aims. Few studies dealing with chondrosarcoma of the pelvis are currently available. Different data about the overall survival and prognostic factors have been published but without a detailed analysis of surgery-related complications. We aimed to analyse the outcome of a series of pelvic chondrosarcomas treated at a single institution, with particular attention to the prognostic factors. Based on a competing risk model, our objective was to identify risk factors for the development of complications. Patients and Methods. In a retrospective single-centre study, 58 chondrosarcomas (26 patients alive, 32 patients dead) of the pelvis were reviewed. The mean follow-up was 13 years (one week to 23.1 years). Results. A total of 26 patients (45%) were alive and 32 patients (55%) had died. Overall survival was 76%, 55% and 45% at one, five and ten years post-operatively, respectively. In a competing risk model the cumulative risk of the development of a surgery-related complication was 64% at six months and 69% at one year, post-operatively, respectively. Endoprosthetic reconstruction was a significant risk factor for the development of complications (p = 0.006). Complications were not significantly related to age or the location or grade of the tumour (p = 0.823, p = 0.976, p = 0.858). The development of complications did not have a negative effect on survival (p = 0.147). Conclusion. This is the first study with competing risk analysis of surgery-related complications in patients with a pelvic chondrosarcoma. The surgery in these patients remains prone to complications. Endoprosthetic reconstruction significantly increases the risk of the development of complications (p = 0.006). A competing risk model showed that the development of complications does not have a negative influence on overall survival (p = 0.147). An aggressive, surgical resection with the goal of achieving wide margins whenever possible remains the mainstay of treatment. . Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:686–96

Aims. A pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial (PROFHER) was conducted in United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) hospitals to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of surgery compared with non-surgical treatment for displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck in adults. . Methods. A cost utility analysis from the NHS perspective was performed. Differences between surgical and non-surgical treatment groups in costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at two years were used to derive an estimate of the cost effectiveness of surgery using regression methods. . Results. Patients randomised to receive surgical intervention accumulated mean greater costs and marginally lower QALYs than patients randomised to non-surgery. The surgical intervention cost a mean of £1758 more per patient (95% confidence intervals (CI) £1126 to £2389). Total QALYs for the surgical group were smaller than those for non-surgery -0.0101 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.11). The probability of surgery being cost effective was less than 10% given the current NICE willingness to pay at a threshold of £20 000 for an additional QALY. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Discussion. The results suggest that current surgical treatment is not cost effective for the majority of displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck in the United Kingdom’s NHS. Take home message: The results of this trial do not support the trend of increased surgical treatment for patients with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck within the United Kingdom NHS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:152–9

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759