Aims. To compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement versus single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. Using data from a multicentre randomized controlled trial (World Hip Trauma Evaluation 8 (WHiTE-8)) in the UK, a within-trial economic evaluation was conducted. Resource usage was measured over 120 days post randomization, and cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), gained from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective in the base-case analysis. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement had a significantly higher mean cost (£224 (95% confidence interval (CI) -408 to 855)) and almost the same QALYs (0.001 (95% CI -0.002 to 0.003)) relative to single-antibiotic cement from the UK NHS and PSS perspective. The probability of the high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement being cost-effective was less than 0.3 at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds, and its net monetary benefit was negative. This finding remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1070–1077

Aims. Distal third clavicle (DTC) fractures are increasing in incidence. Due to their instability and nonunion risk, they prove difficult to treat. Several different operative options for DTC fixation are reported but current evidence suggests variability in operative fixation. Given the lack of consensus, our objective was to determine the current epidemiological trends in DTC as well as their management within the UK. Methods. A multicentre retrospective cohort collaborative study was conducted. All patients over the age of 18 with an isolated DTC fracture in 2019 were included. Demographic variables were recorded: age; sex; side of injury; mechanism of injury; modified Neer classification grading; operative technique; fracture union; complications; and subsequent procedures. Baseline characteristics were described for demographic variables. Categorical variables were expressed as frequencies and percentages. Results. A total of 859 patients from 18 different NHS trusts (15 trauma units and three major trauma centres) were included. The mean age was 57 years (18 to 99). Overall, 56% of patients (n = 481) were male. The most common mechanisms of injury were simple fall (57%; n = 487) and high-energy fall (29%; n = 248); 87% (n = 748) were treated conservatively and 54% (n = 463) were Neer type I fractures. Overall, 32% of fractures (n = 275) were type II (22% type IIa (n = 192); 10% type IIb (n = 83)). With regards to operative management, 89% of patients (n = 748) who underwent an operation were under the age of 60. The main fixation methods were: hook plate (n = 47); locking plate (n = 34); tightrope (n = 5); and locking plate and tight rope (n = 7). Conclusion. Our study is the largest epidemiological review of DTC fractures in the UK. It is also the first to review the practice of DTC fixation. Most fractures are being treated nonoperatively. However, younger patients, suffering a higher-energy mechanism of injury, are more likely to undergo surgery. Hook plates are the predominantly used fixation method followed by locking plate. The literature is sparse on the best method of fixation for optimal outcomes for these patients. To answer this, a pragmatic RCT to determine optimal fixation method is required. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):953–959

Aims. For the increasing number of working-age patients undergoing total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA), return to work (RTW) after surgery is crucial. We investigated the association between occupational class and time to RTW after THA or TKA. Methods. Data from the prospective multicentre Longitudinal Leiden Orthopaedics Outcomes of Osteoarthritis Study were used. Questionnaires were completed preoperatively and six and 12 months postoperatively. Time to RTW was defined as days from surgery until RTW (full or partial). Occupational class was preoperatively assessed and categorized into four categories according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 2008 (blue-/white-collar, high-/low-skilled). Cox regression analyses were conducted separately for THA and TKA patients. Low-skilled blue-collar work was used as the reference category. Results. A total of 360 THA and 276 TKA patients, preoperatively employed, were included. Patients were mainly high-skilled (THA 57%; TKA 41%) or low-skilled (THA 24%; TKA 38%) white-collar workers. Six months post-THA, RTW rates were 78% of low-skilled blue-collar workers compared to 83% to 86% within other occupational classes, increasing after 12 months to 87% to 90% in all occupational classes. Six months post-TKA, RTW rates were 58% of low-skilled and 64% of high-skilled blue-collar workers compared to 80% to 89% of white-collar workers, and after 12 months 79% of low-skilled blue-collar workers compared to 87% to 92% within other occupational classes. High-skilled white-collar workers (THA: hazard ratio (HR) 2.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 to 3.40); TKA: HR 2.31 (95% CI 1.34 to 4.00)) and low-skilled white-collar workers (TKA: HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.18)) had a higher hazard to RTW within six months postoperatively. Conclusion. Clear differences existed in time to RTW among both THA and TKA patients in each of the groups studied. These findings may help guide tailored patient-specific information during preoperative consultation and advice postoperatively, as well as to create awareness among workers and their employers. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):977–984

Aims. A recent study used the RAND Corporation at University of California, Los Angeles (RAND/UCLA) method to develop anatomical total shoulder arthroplasty (aTSA) appropriateness criteria. The purpose of our study was to determine how patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) vary based on appropriateness. Methods. Clinical data from a multicentre database identified patients who underwent primary aTSA from November 2004 to January 2023. A total of 390 patients (mean follow-up 48.1 months (SD 42.0)) were included: 97 (24.9%) were classified as appropriate, 218 (55.9%) inconclusive, and 75 (19.2%) inappropriate. Patients were classified as “appropriate”, “inconclusive”, or “inappropriate”, using a modified version of an appropriateness algorithm, which accounted for age, rotator cuff status, mobility, symptomatology, and Walch classification. Multiple pre- and postoperative scores were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-squared test and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Postoperative complications were also analyzed. Results. All groups achieved significant improvement in mean PROM scores postoperatively. “Appropriate” patients experienced significantly greater improvement in visual analogue scale (VAS) and American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) score compared to “inconclusive” and “inappropriate”. The appropriate group had a significantly greater proportion of patients who achieved minimal clinically important difference (MCID) (95.8%; n = 93) and substantial clinical benefit (SCB) (92.6%; n = 89). Overall, 13 patients had postoperative complications. No significant differences in postoperative complications among classifications were found. Conclusion. Our data clinically validate the RAND/UCLA aTSA appropriateness criteria algorithm, allowing for more rapid and reliable determination of aTSA candidacy. “Appropriate” patients were more likely to achieve MCID and SCB for ASES scores compared to “inappropriate” patients. Among “appropriate” patients who did not achieve SCB, 50% (n = 4) had a postoperative complication. There was a significantly higher proportion of postoperative complications among those who did not achieve SCB across all three groups. Only 7.1% (n = 1) of patients who did not achieve SCB in the inappropriate group had a postoperative complication. Thus, it can be inferred that the failure to reach SCB in the appropriate group was likely to be due to a postoperative complication, whereas for patients deemed “inappropriate”, failure to reach SCB may be secondary to factors accounted for within our algorithm. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1451–1460

Aims. Cemented hemiarthroplasty is an effective form of treatment for most patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. However, it remains unclear whether there are subgroups of patients who may benefit from the alternative operation of a modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty – the aim of this study was to investigate this issue. Knowledge about the heterogeneity of treatment effects is important for surgeons in order to target operations towards specific subgroups who would benefit the most. Methods. We used causal forest analysis to compare subgroup- and individual-level treatment effects between cemented and modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty in patients aged > 60 years with an intracapsular fracture of the hip, using data from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized clinical trial. EuroQol five-dimension index scores were used to measure health-related quality of life at one, four, and 12 months postoperatively. Results. Our analysis revealed a complex landscape of responses to the use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty in the 12 months after surgery. There was heterogeneity of effects with regard to baseline characteristics, including age, pre-injury health status, and lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption. This heterogeneity was greater at the one-month mark than at subsequent follow-up timepoints, with particular regard to subgroups based on age. However, for all subgroups, the effect estimates for quality of life lay within the confidence intervals derived from the analysis of all patients. Conclusion. The use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty is expected to increase health-related quality of life compared with modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty for all subgroups of patients aged > 60 years with a displaced intracapsular fracture of the hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):656–661

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to report the radiological outcomes of patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture who were randomized to a moulded cast or surgical fixation with wires following manipulation and closed reduction of their fracture. The secondary aim was to correlate radiological outcomes with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the year following injury. Methods. Participants were recruited as part of DRAFFT2, a UK multicentre clinical trial. Participants were aged 16 years or over with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture, and were eligible for the trial if they needed a manipulation of their fracture, as recommended by their treating surgeon. Participants were randomly allocated on a 1:1 ratio to moulded cast or Kirschner wires after manipulation of the fracture in the operating theatre. Standard posteroanterior and lateral radiographs were performed in the radiology department of participating centres at the time of the patient’s initial assessment in the emergency department and six weeks postoperatively. Intraoperative fluoroscopic images taken at the time of fracture reduction were also assessed. Results. Patients treated with surgical fixation with wires had less dorsal angulation of the radius versus those treated in a moulded cast at six weeks after manipulation of the fracture; the mean difference of -4.13° was statistically significant (95% confidence interval 5.82 to -2.45). There was no evidence of a difference in radial shortening. However, there was no correlation between these radiological measurements and PROMs at any timepoint in the 12 months post-injury. Conclusion. For patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture treated with a closed manipulation, surgical fixation with wires leads to less dorsal angulation on radiographs at six weeks compared with patients treated in a moulded plaster cast alone. However, the difference in dorsal angulation was small and did not correlate with patient-reported pain and function. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):132–138

Aims. Complete ruptures of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) of the thumb are a common injury, yet little is known about their current management in the UK. The objective of this study was to assess the way complete UCL ruptures are managed in the UK. Methods. We carried out a multicentre, survey-based cross-sectional study in 37 UK centres over a 16-month period from June 2022 to September 2023. The survey results were analyzed descriptively. Results. A total of 37 centres participated, of which nine were tertiary referral hand centres and 28 were district general hospitals. There was a total of 112 respondents (69 surgeons and 43 hand therapists). The strongest influence on the decision to offer surgery was the lack of a firm ‘endpoint’ to stressing the metacarpophalangeal joint (MCPJ) in either full extension or with the MCPJ in 30° of flexion. There was variability in whether additional imaging was used in managing acute UCL injuries, with 46% routinely using additional imaging while 54% did not. The use of a bone anchor was by far the most common surgical option for reconstructing an acute ligament avulsion (97%, n = 67) with a transosseous suture used by 3% (n = 2). The most common duration of immobilization for those managed conservatively was six weeks (58%, n = 65) and four weeks (30%, n = 34). Most surgeons (87%, n = 60) and hand therapists (95%, n = 41) would consider randomizing patients with complete UCL ruptures in a future clinical trial. Conclusion. The management of complete UCL ruptures in the UK is highly variable in certain areas, and there is a willingness for clinical trials on this subject. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):708–714

Aims. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a potential complication of foot and ankle surgery. There is a lack of agreement on contributing risk factors and chemical prophylaxis requirements. The primary outcome of this study was to analyze the 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and VTE-related mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery and Achilles tendon (TA) rupture. Secondary aims were to assess the variation in the provision of chemical prophylaxis and risk factors for VTE. Methods. This was a multicentre, prospective national collaborative audit with data collection over nine months for all patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre or TA rupture treatment, within participating UK hospitals. The association between VTE and thromboprophylaxis was assessed with a univariable logistic regression model. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify key predictors for the risk of VTE. Results. A total of 13,569 patients were included from 68 sites. Overall, 11,363 patients were available for analysis: 44.79% were elective (n = 5,090), 42.16% were trauma excluding TA ruptures (n = 4,791), 3.50% were acute diabetic procedures (n = 398), 2.44% were TA ruptures undergoing surgery (n = 277), and 7.10% were TA ruptures treated nonoperatively (n = 807). In total, 11 chemical anticoagulants were recorded, with the most common agent being low-molecular-weight heparin (n = 6,303; 56.79%). A total of 32.71% received no chemical prophylaxis. There were 99 cases of VTE (incidence 0.87% (95% CI 0.71 to 1.06)). VTE-related mortality was 0.03% (95% CI 0.005 to 0.080). Univariable analysis showed that increased age and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade had higher odds of VTE, as did having previous cancer, stroke, or history of VTE. On multivariable analysis, the strongest predictors for VTE were the type of foot and ankle procedure and ASA grade. Conclusion. The 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and mortality related to VTE is low in foot and ankle surgery and TA management. There was notable variability in the chemical prophylaxis used. The significant risk factors associated with 90-day symptomatic VTE were TA rupture and high ASA grade. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1249–1256

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy versus physical therapy plus optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy in young patients aged under 45 years with traumatic meniscal tears. Methods. We conducted a multicentre, open-labelled, randomized controlled trial in patients aged 18 to 45 years, with a recent onset, traumatic, MRI-verified, isolated meniscal tear without knee osteoarthritis. Patients were randomized to arthroscopic partial meniscectomy or standardized physical therapy with an optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy after three months of follow-up. We performed a cost-utility analysis on the randomization groups to compare both treatments over a 24-month follow-up period. Cost utility was calculated as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy compared to physical therapy. Calculations were performed from a healthcare system perspective and a societal perspective. Results. A total of 100 patients were included: 49 were randomized to arthroscopic partial meniscectomy and 51 to physical therapy. In the physical therapy group, 21 patients (41%) received delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy during follow-up. Over 24 months, patients in the arthroscopic partial meniscectomy group had a mean 0.005 QALYs lower quality of life (95% confidence interval -0.13 to 0.14). The cost-utility ratio was €-160,000/QALY from the healthcare perspective and €-223,372/QALY from the societal perspective, indicating that arthroscopic partial meniscectomy incurs additional costs without any added health benefit. Conclusion. Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy is arthroscopic partial meniscectomy is unlikely to be cost-effective in treating young patients with isolated traumatic meniscal tears compared to physical therapy as a primary health intervention. Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy leads to a similar quality of life, but higher costs, compared to physical therapy plus optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1177–1183

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to present the mid-term follow-up of a multicentre randomized controlled trial (RCT) which compared the functional outcome following routine removal (RR) to the outcome following on-demand removal (ODR) of the syndesmotic screw (SS). Methods. All patients included in the ‘ROutine vs on DEmand removal Of the syndesmotic screw’ (RODEO) trial received the Olerud-Molander Ankle Score (OMAS), American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Hindfoot Score (AOFAS), Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), and EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D). Out of the 152 patients, 109 (71.7%) completed the mid-term follow-up questionnaire and were included in this study (53 treated with RR and 56 with ODR). Median follow-up was 50 months (interquartile range 43.0 to 56.0) since the initial surgical treatment of the acute syndesmotic injury. The primary outcome of this study consisted of the OMAS scores of the two groups. Results. The median OMAS score was 85.0 for patients treated with RR, and 90.0 for patients treated with ODR (p = 0.384), indicating no significant difference between ODR and RR. The secondary outcome measures included the AOFAS (88.0 in the RR group and 90.0 for ODR; p = 0.722), FAOS (87.5 in the RR group and 92.9 for ODR; p = 0.399), and EQ-5D (0.87 in the RR group and 0.96 for ODR; p = 0.092). Conclusion. This study demonstrated no functional difference comparing ODR to RR in syndesmotic injuries at a four year follow-up period, which supports the results of the primary RODEO trial. ODR should be the standard practice after syndesmotic screw fixation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(12):957–963

Aims. Ankle fracture is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries sustained in the UK. Many patients experience pain and physical impairment, with the consequences of the fracture and its management lasting for several months or even years. The broad aim of ankle fracture treatment is to maintain the alignment of the joint while the fracture heals, and to reduce the risks of problems, such as stiffness. More severe injuries to the ankle are routinely treated surgically. However, even with advances in surgery, there remains a risk of complications; for patients experiencing these, the associated loss of function and quality of life (Qol) is considerable. Non-surgical treatment is an alternative to surgery and involves applying a cast carefully shaped to the patient’s ankle to correct and maintain alignment of the joint with the key benefit being a reduction in the frequency of common complications of surgery. The main potential risk of non-surgical treatment is a loss of alignment with a consequent reduction in ankle function. This study aims to determine whether ankle function, four months after treatment, in patients with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting is not worse than in those treated with surgical intervention, which is the current standard of care. Methods. This trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomized non-inferiority clinical trial with an embedded pilot, and with 12 months clinical follow-up and parallel economic analysis. A surveillance study using routinely collected data will be performed annually to five years post-treatment. Adult patients, aged 60 years and younger, with unstable ankle fractures will be identified in daily trauma meetings and fracture clinics and approached for recruitment prior to their treatment. Treatments will be performed in trauma units across the UK by a wide range of surgeons. Details of the surgical treatment, including how the operation is done, implant choice, and the recovery programme afterwards, will be at the discretion of the treating surgeon. The non-surgical treatment will be close-contact casting performed under anaesthetic, a technique which has gained in popularity since the publication of the Ankle Injury Management (AIM) trial. In all, 890 participants (445 per group) will be randomly allocated to surgical or non-surgical treatment. Data regarding ankle function, QoL, complications, and healthcare-related costs will be collected at eight weeks, four and 12 months, and then annually for five years following treatment. The primary outcome measure is patient-reported ankle function at four months from treatment. Anticipated impact. The 12-month results will be presented and published internationally. This is anticipated to be the only pragmatic trial reporting outcomes comparing surgical with non-surgical treatment in unstable ankle fractures in younger adults (aged 60 years and younger), and, as such, will inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) ‘non-complex fracture’ recommendations at their scheduled update in 2024. A report of long-term outcomes at five years will be produced by January 2027. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):184–201

Aims. Hand trauma, consisting of injuries to both the hand and the wrist, are a common injury seen worldwide. The global age-standardized incidence of hand trauma exceeds 179 per 100,000. Hand trauma may require surgical management and therefore result in significant costs to both healthcare systems and society. Surgical site infections (SSIs) are common following all surgical interventions, and within hand surgery the risk of SSI is at least 5%. SSI following hand trauma surgery results in significant costs to healthcare systems with estimations of over £450 per patient. The World Health Organization (WHO) have produced international guidelines to help prevent SSIs. However, it is unclear what variability exists in the adherence to these guidelines within hand trauma. The aim is to assess compliance to the WHO global guidelines in prevention of SSI in hand trauma. Methods. This will be an international, multicentre audit comparing antimicrobial practices in hand trauma to the standards outlined by WHO. Through the Reconstructive Surgery Trials Network (RSTN), hand surgeons across the globe will be invited to participate in the study. Consultant surgeons/associate specialists managing hand trauma and members of the multidisciplinary team will be identified at participating sites. Teams will be asked to collect data prospectively on a minimum of 20 consecutive patients. The audit will run for eight months. Data collected will include injury details, initial management, hand trauma team management, operation details, postoperative care, and antimicrobial techniques used throughout. Adherence to WHO global guidelines for SSI will be summarized using descriptive statistics across each criteria. Discussion. The Hand and Wrist trauma: Antimicrobials and Infection Audit of Clinical Practice (HAWAII ACP) will provide an understanding of the current antimicrobial practice in hand trauma surgery. This will then provide a basis to guide further research in the field. The findings of this study will be disseminated via conference presentations and a peer-reviewed publication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):361–366

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. The aim of this trial was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a soft bandage and immediate discharge, compared with rigid immobilization, in children aged four to 15 years with a torus fracture of the distal radius. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, as well as a broader societal point of view. Health resources and quality of life (the youth version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-Y)) data were collected, as part of the Forearm Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) multicentre randomized controlled trial over a six-week period, using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Costs and health gains (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were estimated for the two trial treatment groups. Regression was used to estimate the probability of the new treatment being cost-effective at a range of ‘willingness-to-pay’ thresholds, which reflect a range of costs per QALY at which governments are typically prepared to reimburse for treatment. Results. The offer of a soft bandage significantly reduced cost per patient (saving £12.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£5.30 to £19.80)) while QALYs were similar (QALY difference between groups: 0.0013 (95% CI -0.0004 to 0.003)). The high probability (95%) that offering a bandage is a cost-effective option was consistent when examining the data in a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. In addition to the known clinical equivalence, this study found that the offer of a bandage reduced cost compared with rigid immobilization among children with a torus fracture of the distal radius. While the cost saving was small for each patient, the high frequency of these injuries indicates a significant saving across the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):623–630

Aims. Prior to the availability of vaccines, mortality for hip fracture patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection was three times higher than pre-pandemic rates. The primary aim of this study was to determine the 30-day mortality rate of hip fracture patients in the post-vaccine era. Methods. A multicentre observational study was carried out at 19 NHS Trusts in England. The study period for the data collection was 1 February 2021 until 28 February 2022, with mortality tracing until 28 March 2022. Data collection included demographic details, data points to calculate the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, COVID-19 status, 30-day mortality, and vaccination status. Results. A total of 337 patients tested positive for COVID-19. The overall 30-day mortality in these patients was 7.7%: 5.5% in vaccinated patients and 21.7% in unvaccinated patients. There was no significant difference between post-vaccine mortality compared with pre-pandemic 2019 controls (7.7% vs 5.0%; p = 0.068). Independent risk factors for mortality included unvaccinated status, Abbreviated Mental Test Score ≤ 6, male sex, age > 80 years, and time to theatre > 36 hours, in decreasing order of effect size. Conclusion. The vaccination programme has reduced 30-day mortality rates in hip fracture patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection to a level similar to pre-pandemic. Mortality for unvaccinated patients remained high. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(12):1362–1368

Aims. Early large treatment effects can arise in small studies, which lessen as more data accumulate. This study aimed to retrospectively examine whether early treatment effects occurred for two multicentre orthopaedic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and explore biases related to this. Methods. Included RCTs were ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation), a two-arm study of surgery versus non-surgical treatment for proximal humerus fractures, and UK FROST (United Kingdom Frozen Shoulder Trial), a three-arm study of two surgical and one non-surgical treatment for frozen shoulder. To determine whether early treatment effects were present, the primary outcome of Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) was compared on forest plots for: the chief investigator’s (CI) site to the remaining sites, the first five sites opened to the other sites, and patients grouped in quintiles by randomization date. Potential for bias was assessed by comparing mean age and proportion of patients with indicators of poor outcome between included and excluded/non-consenting participants. Results. No bias in treatment effect was observed overall for the CI site, or the first five sites, compared with the remaining sites in either trial. An early treatment effect on the OSS was observed for the first quintile of participants recruited to ProFHER only (clinically relevant difference of seven points). Selection bias for age was observed in the ProFHER trial only, with slightly younger patients being recruited into the study. Both trials showed some selection bias for markers of poor prognosis, although these did not appear to change over time. Conclusion. No bias in treatment effects overall were found at the CI or early sites set-up. An early treatment effect was found in one of the two trials, which was likely a chance effect as this did not continue during the study. Selection bias was observed in both RCTs, however this was minimal and did not impact on outcome. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):96–103

Aims. The aim of this study was to capture 12-month outcomes from a representative multicentre cohort of patients undergoing total ankle arthroplasty (TAA), describe the pattern of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) at 12 months, and identify predictors of these outcome measures. Methods. Patients listed for a primary TAA at 19 NHS hospitals between February 2016 and October 2017 were eligible. PROMs data were collected preoperatively and at six and 12 months including: Manchester-Oxford Foot and Ankle Questionnaire (MOXFQ (foot and ankle)) and the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Radiological pre- and postoperative data included Kellgren-Lawrence score and implant position measurement. This was supplemented by data from the National Joint Registry through record linkage to determine: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade at index procedure; indication for surgery, index ankle previous fracture; tibial hind foot alignment; additional surgery at the time of TAA; and implant type. Multivariate regression models assessed outcomes, and the relationship between MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L outcomes, with patient characteristics. Results. Data from 238 patients were analyzed. There were significant improvements in MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L among people who underwent TAA at six- and 12-month assessments compared with preoperative scores (p < 0.001). Most improvement occurred between preoperative and six months, with little further improvement at 12 months. A greater improvement in MOXFQ outcome postoperatively was associated with older age and more advanced radiological signs of ankle osteoarthritis at baseline. Conclusion. TAA significantly benefits patients with end-stage ankle disease. The lack of substantial further overall change between six and 12 months suggests that capturing PROMs at six months is sufficient to assess the success of the procedure. Older patients and those with advanced radiological disease had the greater gains. These outcome predictors can be used to counsel younger patients and those with earlier ankle disease on the expectations of TAA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):895–904

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of surgical fixation with Kirschner (K-)wire ersus moulded casting after manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in an operating theatre setting. Methods. An economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial 2 (DRAFFT2) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was collected at three, six, and 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from an NHS and personal social services perspective. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates, and decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. In the base case analysis, surgical fixation with K-wire was more expensive (£29.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) -94.85 to 154.15)) and generated lower QALYs (0.007 (95% CI -0.03 to 0.016)) than moulded casting, but this difference was not statistically significant. The probability of K-wire being cost-effective at a £20,000 per QALY cost-effectiveness threshold was 24%. The cost-effectiveness results remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. The findings suggest that surgical fixation with K-wire is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to a moulded cast in adults, following manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in a theatre setting. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1225–1233

Aims. We compared decompression alone to decompression with fusion surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis, with or without degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS). The aim was to evaluate if five-year outcomes differed between the groups. The two-year results from the same trial revealed no differences. Methods. The Swedish Spinal Stenosis Study was a multicentre randomized controlled trial with recruitment from September 2006 to February 2012. A total of 247 patients with one- or two-level central lumbar spinal stenosis, stratified by the presence of DS, were randomized to decompression alone or decompression with fusion. The five-year Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), visual analogue scales for back and leg pain, and patient-reported satisfaction, decreased pain, and increased walking distance. The reoperation rate was recorded. Results. Five-year follow-up was completed by 213 (95%) of the eligible patients (mean age 67 years; 155 female (67%)). After five years, ODI was similar irrespective of treatment, with a mean of 25 (SD 18) for decompression alone and 28 (SD 22) for decompression with fusion (p = 0.226). Mean EQ-5D was higher for decompression alone than for fusion (0.69 (SD 0.28) vs 0.59 (SD 0.34); p = 0.027). In the no-DS subset, fewer patients reported decreased leg pain after fusion (58%) than with decompression alone (80%) (relative risk (RR) 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 0.97). The frequency of subsequent spinal surgery was 24% for decompression with fusion and 22% for decompression alone (RR 1.1 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.8)). Conclusion. Adding fusion to decompression in spinal stenosis surgery, with or without spondylolisthesis, does not improve the five-year ODI, which is consistent with our two-year report. Three secondary outcomes that did not differ at two years favoured decompression alone at five years. Our results support decompression alone as the preferred method for operating on spinal stenosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):705–712

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680