We have reviewed prospective data on 1016 patients who underwent unilateral total hip replacement to establish the pre-operative risk factors associated with peri-operative blood transfusion. Most patients who required transfusion were older and were of lower weight, height, pre-operative haemoglobin level and body mass index than patients who were not transfused.

Multivariate analysis revealed that only the pre-operative haemoglobin level and the patients weight were identified as significant independent factors increasing the need for transfusion (p < 0.001). A haemoglobin level below 12 g/dl was associated with a threefold increase in transfusion requirement.

We investigated the extent to which improved balance relative to pain relief correlates with the success of total knee replacement (TKR). A total of 81 patients were recruited to the study: 16 men (19.8%) and 65 women (80.2%). Of these, 62 patients (10 men, 52 women) with a mean age of 73 (57 to 83) underwent static and dynamic assessment of balance pre-operatively and one year post-operatively. The parameters of balance were quantified using commercially available and validated equipment. Motor function and self-reported outcome were also assessed.

There was a significant improvement in dynamic balance (p < 0.001) one year after TKR, and better balance correlated with improved mobility, functional balance and increased health-related quality of life. As it seems that balance, and not only pain relief, influences the success of TKR, balance skills should be better addressed during the post-operative rehabilitation of patients who undergo TKR.

The tibial components in 143 patients with total knee replacements performed before 1988 were assessed for micromotion using roentgen stereophotogrammetric analysis (RSA) over a period of 13 years. The fixation of the prostheses remained clinically sound in all cases, although revision had been required for other reasons in seven. In a second group taken from all cases with RSA available on our full database to 1990, 15 tibial components had been followed by RSA from the insertion until, 1 to 11 years after the initial arthroplasty, they were revised for mechanical loosening of the tibial component; 12 of these comprised all the loosenings in the base group, thus making a total of 155 consecutive cases, while an additional three were inserted after the base material had been compiled. The mean migration in the first group was about 1 mm at one year, but subsequent migration was slower, reaching a mean of about 1.5 mm after ten years. About one-third migrated continuously throughout follow-up, while two-thirds ceased to migrate after one to two years. In the revision group, 14 components had migrated continuously and at one year significantly more than those in the first group. One revision case lacked the crucial one-year follow-up and could not be classified. These findings suggest that mechanical loosening begins early in the postoperative period. Clinical symptoms which necessitate revision, seen at this stage in 20% of abnormally migrating tibial components, may not appear until up to ten years after the operation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The popularity of cementless total hip replacement (THR) has surpassed cemented THR in England and Wales. This retrospective cohort study records survival time to revision following primary cementless THR with the most common combination (accounting for almost a third of all cementless THRs), and explores risk factors independently associated with failure, using data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales. Patients with osteoarthritis who had a DePuy Corail/Pinnacle THR implanted between the establishment of the registry in 2003 and 31 December 2010 were included within analyses. There were 35 386 procedures. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the extent to which the risk of revision was related to patient, surgeon and implant covariates. The overall rate of revision at five years was 2.4% (99% confidence interval 2.02 to 2.79). In the final adjusted model, we found that the risk of revision was significantly higher in patients receiving metal-on-metal (MoM: hazard ratio (HR) 1.93, p < 0.001) and ceramic-on-ceramic bearings (CoC: HR 1.55, p = 0.003) compared with the best performing bearing (metal-on-polyethylene). The risk of revision was also greater for smaller femoral stems (sizes 8 to 10: HR 1.82, p < 0.001) compared with mid-range sizes. In a secondary analysis of only patients where body mass index (BMI) data were available (n = 17 166), BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² significantly increased the risk of revision (HR 1.55, p = 0.002). The influence of the bearing on the risk of revision remained significant (MoM: HR 2.19, p < 0.001; CoC: HR 2.09, p = 0.001). The risk of revision was independent of age, gender, head size and offset, shell, liner and stem type, and surgeon characteristics.

We found significant differences in failure between bearing surfaces and femoral stem size after adjustment for a range of covariates in a large cohort of single-brand cementless THRs. In this study of procedures performed since 2003, hard bearings had significantly higher rates of revision, but we found no evidence that head size had an effect. Patient characteristics, such as BMI and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, also influence the survival of cementless components.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:747–57.

Impingement by prominence at the femoral head-neck junction on the anterior acetabular rim may cause early osteoarthritis. Our aim was to develop a simple method to describe concavity at this junction, and then to test it by its ability to distinguish quantitatively a group of patients with clinical evidence of impingement from asymptomatic individuals who had normal hips on examination.

MR scans of 39 patients with groin pain, decreased internal rotation and a positive impingement test were compared with those of 35 asymptomatic control subjects. The waist of the femoral head-neck junction was identified on tilted axial MR scans passing through the centre of the head. The anterior margin of the waist of the femoral neck was defined and measured by an angle (α). In addition, the width of the femoral head-neck junction was measured at two sites.

Repeated measurements showed good reproducibility among four observers. The angle α averaged 74.0° for the patients and 42.0° for the control group (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also found between the patient and control groups for the scaled width of the femoral neck at both sites.

Using standardised MRI, the symptomatic hips of patients who have impingement have significantly less concavity at the femoral head-neck junction than do normal hips.

This test may be of value in patients with loss of internal rotation for which a cause is not found.

The radiological features of the cement mantle around total hip replacements (THRs) have been used to assess aseptic loosening. In this case-control study we investigated the risk of failure of THR as predictable by a range of such features using data from patients recruited to the Trent Regional Arthroplasty Study (TRAS).

An independent radiological assessment was undertaken on Charnley THRs with aseptic loosening within five years of surgery and on a control group from the TRAS database. Chi-squared tests were used to test the probability of obtaining the observed data by chance, and odds ratios were calculated to estimate the strength of association for different features.

Several features were associated with a clinically important increase (> twofold) in the risk of loosening, which was statistically significant for four features (p < 0.01). Inadequate cementation (Barrack C and D grades) was the most significant feature, with an estimated odds ratio of 9.5 (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 28.4, p < 0.0001) for failure.

We conducted a multicentre cohort study of 228 patients with osteoarthritis followed up after total hip or knee replacement. Quality of life and patient satisfaction were assessed by self-administered questionnaires. Patient satisfaction was the dependent variable in a multivariate linear regression model. Independent variables included sociodemographic factors, pre- and post-operative clinical characteristics and the pre-operative and post-discharge health-related quality of life.

The mean age of the patients was 69 years (sd 9), and 43.8% were male. Pre- and postoperative clinical characteristics were not associated with satisfaction with health care. Only pre-operative bodily pain (p < 0.01) and pre-operative social functioning (p < 0.05) influenced patient satisfaction with care.

The pre-operative health-related quality of life and patient characteristics have little effect on inpatient satisfaction with care. This suggests that the impact of the care process on satisfaction may be independent of observed and perceived initial patient-related characteristics.

We have studied the kinematics of the knee in the sagittal plane, using a four-bar linkage as model, and assuming that a "neutral fibre" in each ligament remains isometric throughout flexion. We devised a computer program to calculate the distance separating any pair of points, one on each bone, for various cruciate attachments at various angles of flexion. The parameters for the linkage in four cadaveric knees were obtained by marking the centre of attachment of the cruciate ligaments with tacks and taking lateral radiographs. The movements of the bones were then calculated, in the computer model, for various attachments of "replacement" ligament fibres, the distance between the attachment sites being plotted against the angle of flexion. It was then possible to define zones around the isometric attachment points within which changes in length would be predictable. Our results show that the position of the femoral sites of attachment of both anterior and posterior cruciate replacement was more critical than that of the tibial attachments.

We considered whether a positive margin occurring after resection of a soft-tissue sarcoma of a limb would affect the incidence of local recurrence. Patients with low-grade liposarcomas were expected to be a low-risk group as were those who had positive margins planned before surgery to preserve critical structures. Two groups, however, were expected to be at a higher risk, namely, patients who had undergone unplanned excision elsewhere with a positive margin on re-excision and those with unplanned positive margins occurring during primary resection.

Of 566 patients in a prospective database, 87 with positive margins after limb-sparing surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy were grouped according to the clinical scenario by an observer blinded to the outcome. The rate of local recurrence differed significantly between the two low- (4.2% and 3.6%) and the two high-risk groups (31.6% and 37.5%). This classification therefore provides useful information about the incidence of local recurrence after positive-margin resection.

Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims. This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model. Methods. The study included 538 joints that underwent primary THA. The patients were divided into groups using unsupervised time series clustering for five-year BMD loss of Gruen zone 7 postoperatively, and a machine-learning model to predict the BMD loss was developed. Additionally, the predictor for BMD loss was extracted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate, which is the most important categorical predictor for BMD loss, was examined by calculating the change in predictive probability when hypothetically switching between the inclusion and exclusion of bisphosphonate. Results. Time series clustering allowed us to divide the patients into two groups, and the predictive factors were identified including patient- and operation-related factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the BMD loss prediction averaged 0.734. Virtual administration of bisphosphonate showed on average 14% efficacy in preventing BMD loss of zone 7. Additionally, stem types and preoperative triglyceride (TG), creatinine (Cr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and creatine kinase (CK) showed significant association with the estimated patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate. Conclusion. Periprosthetic BMD loss after THA is predictable based on patient- and operation-related factors, and optimal prescription of bisphosphonate based on the prediction may prevent BMD loss. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(4):184–192

Aims. The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model. Methods. A total of 1,293 patients with PTASD managed nonoperatively were identified from a trauma database (mean age 23.3 years (15 to 35); 14.3% female). We assessed the prevalence of RI, and used multivariate regression modelling to evaluate which demographic- and injury-related factors were independently predictive for its occurrence. Results. The overall rate of RI at a mean follow-up of 34.4 months (SD 47.0) was 62.8% (n = 812), with 81.0% (n = 658) experiencing their first recurrence within two years of PTASD. The median time for recurrence was 9.8 months (IQR 3.9 to 19.4). Independent predictors increasing risk of RI included male sex (p < 0.001), younger age at PTASD (p < 0.001), participation in contact sport (p < 0.001), and the presence of a bony Bankart (BB) lesion (p = 0.028). Greater tuberosity fracture (GTF) was protective (p < 0.001). However, the discriminative ability of the resulting predictive model for two-year risk of RI was poor (area under the curve (AUC) 0.672). A subset analysis excluding identifiable radiological predictors of BB and GTF worsened the predictive ability (AUC 0.646). Conclusion. This study clarifies the prevalence and risk factors for RI following PTASD in a large, unselected patient cohort. Although these data permitted the development of a predictive tool for RI, its discriminative ability was poor. Predicting RI remains challenging, and as-yet-undetermined risk factors may be important in determining the risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1111–1117

Aims. Clinical management of open fractures is challenging and frequently requires complex reconstruction procedures. The Gustilo-Anderson classification lacks uniform interpretation, has poor interobserver reliability, and fails to account for injuries to musculotendinous units and bone. The Ganga Hospital Open Injury Severity Score (GHOISS) was designed to address these concerns. The major aim of this review was to ascertain the evidence available on accuracy of the GHOISS in predicting successful limb salvage in patients with mangled limbs. Methods. We searched electronic data bases including PubMed, CENTRAL, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies that employed the GHOISS risk tool in managing complex limb injuries published from April 2006, when the score was introduced, until April 2021. Primary outcome was the measured sensitivity and specificity of the GHOISS risk tool for predicting amputation at a specified threshold score. Secondary outcomes included length of stay, need for plastic surgery, deep infection rate, time to fracture union, and functional outcome measures. Diagnostic test accuracy meta-analysis was performed using a random effects bivariate binomial model. Results. We identified 1,304 records, of which six prospective cohort studies and two retrospective cohort studies evaluating a total of 788 patients were deemed eligible for inclusion. A diagnostic test meta-analysis conducted on five cohort studies, with 474 participants, showed that GHOISS at a threshold score of 14 has a pooled sensitivity of 93.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78.4 to 98.2) and a specificity of 95% (95% CI 88.7 to 97.9) for predicting primary or secondary amputations in people with complex lower limb injuries. Conclusion. GHOISS is highly accurate in predicting success of limb salvage, and can inform management and predict secondary outcomes. However, there is a need for high-quality multicentre trials to confirm these findings and investigate the effectiveness of the score in children, and in predicting secondary amputations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):21–28

Aims. Excessive posterior pelvic tilt (PT) may increase the risk of anterior instability after total hip arthroplasty (THA). The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in PT occurring from the preoperative supine to postoperative standing position following THA, and identify factors associated with significant changes in PT. Methods. Supine PT was measured on preoperative CT scans and standing PT was measured on preoperative and one-year postoperative standing lateral radiographs in 933 patients who underwent primary THA. Negative values indicate posterior PT. Patients with > 13° of posterior PT from preoperative supine to postoperative standing (ΔPT ≤ -13°) radiographs, which corresponds to approximately a 10° increase in functional anteversion of the acetabular component, were compared with patients with less change (ΔPT > -13°). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess preoperative demographic and spinopelvic parameters predictive of PT changes of ≤ -13°. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) determined the diagnostic accuracy of the predictive factors. Results. PT changed from a mean of 3.8° (SD 6.0°)) preoperatively to -3.5° (SD 6.9°) postoperatively, a mean change of -7.4 (SD 4.5°; p < 0.001). A total of 95 patients (10.2%) had ≤ -13° change in PT from preoperative supine to postoperative standing. The strongest predictive preoperative factors of large changes in PT (≤ -13°) from preoperative supine to postoperative standing were a large posterior change in PT from supine to standing, increased supine PT, and decreased standing PT (p < 0.001). Flexed-seated PT (p = 0.006) and female sex (p = 0.045) were weaker significant predictive factors. When including all predictive factors, the accuracy of the AUC prediction was 84.9%, with 83.5% sensitivity and 71.2% specificity. Conclusion. A total of 10% of patients had > 13° of posterior PT postoperatively compared with their supine pelvic position, resulting in an increased functional anteversion of > 10°. The strongest predictive factors of changes in postoperative PT were the preoperative supine-to-standing differences, the anterior supine PT, and the posterior standing PT. Surgeons who introduce the acetabular component with the patient supine using an anterior approach should be aware of the potentially large increase in functional anteversion occurring in these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):74–80

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) and develop and validate machine learning algorithms in order to predict five-year cancer-related mortality in these patients. Methods. Demographic, clinicopathological, and treatment variables of limb and trunk STS patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017 were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors significantly associated with five-year cancer-related mortality. Various machine learning models were developed and compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. The model that performed best on the SEER testing data was further assessed to determine the variables most important in its predictive capacity. This model was externally validated using our institutional dataset. Results. A total of 13,646 patients with STS from the SEER database were included, of whom 35.9% experienced five-year cancer-related mortality. The random forest model performed the best overall and identified tumour size as the most important variable when predicting mortality in patients with STS, followed by M stage, histological subtype, age, and surgical excision. Each variable was significant in logistic regression. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.752. Conclusion. This study identified clinically important variables associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk STS, and developed a predictive model that demonstrated good accuracy and predictability. Orthopaedic oncologists may use these findings to further risk-stratify their patients and recommend an optimal course of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):702–710

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Histology is widely used for diagnosis of persistent infection during reimplantation in two-stage revision hip and knee arthroplasty, although data on its utility remain scarce. Therefore, this study aims to assess the predictive value of permanent sections at reimplantation in relation to reinfection risk, and to compare results of permanent and frozen sections. Methods. We retrospectively collected data from 226 patients (90 hips, 136 knees) with periprosthetic joint infection who underwent two-stage revision between August 2011 and September 2021, with a minimum follow-up of one year. Histology was assessed via the SLIM classification. First, we analyzed whether patients with positive permanent sections at reimplantation had higher reinfection rates than patients with negative histology. Further, we compared permanent and frozen section results, and assessed the influence of anatomical regions (knee versus hip), low- versus high-grade infections, as well as first revision versus multiple prior revisions on the histological result at reimplantation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), chi-squared tests, and Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated. Results. Overall, the reinfection rate was 18%. A total of 14 out of 82 patients (17%) with positive permanent sections at reimplantation experienced reinfection, compared to 26 of 144 patients (18%) with negative results (p = 0.996). Neither permanent sections nor fresh frozen sections were significantly associated with reinfection, with a sensitivity of 0.35, specificity of 0.63, PPV of 0.17, NPV of 0.81, and accuracy of 58%. Histology was not significantly associated with reinfection or survival time for any of the analyzed sub-groups. Permanent and frozen section results were in agreement for 91% of cases. Conclusion. Permanent and fresh frozen sections at reimplantation in two-stage revision do not serve as a reliable predictor for reinfection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):372–379

Aims. Early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is associated with improved outcomes of conservative treatment. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a novel screening programme that included both the primary risk factors of breech presentation and family history, and the secondary risk factors of oligohydramnios and foot deformities. Methods. A five-year prospective registry study investigating every live birth in the study’s catchment area (n = 27,731), all of whom underwent screening for risk factors and examination at the newborn and six- to eight-week neonatal examination and review. DDH was diagnosed using ultrasonography and the Graf classification system, defined as grade IIb or above or rapidly regressing IIa disease (≥4. o. at four weeks follow-up). Multivariate odds ratios were calculated to establish significant association, and risk differences were calculated to provide quantifiable risk increase with DDH, positive predictive value was used as a measure of predictive efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of using these risk factors to predict DDH was evaluated using NHS tariffs (January 2021). Results. The prevalence of DDH that required treatment within our population was 5/1,000 live births. The rate of missed presentation of DDH was 0.43/1000 live births. Breech position, family history, oligohydramnios, and foot deformities demonstrated significant association with DDH (p < 0.0001). The presence of breech presentation increased the risk of DDH by 1.69% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93% to 2.45%), family history by 3.57% (95% CI 2.06% to 5.09%), foot deformities by 8.95% (95% CI 4.81% to 13.1%), and oligohydramnios nby 11.6% (95 % CI 3.0% to 19.0%). Primary risk factors family history and breech presentation demonstrated an estimated cost-per-case detection of £6,276 and £11,409, respectively. Oligohydramnios and foot deformities demonstrated a cost-per-case detected less than the cost of primary risk factors of £2,260 and £2,670, respectively. Conclusion. The inclusion of secondary risk factors within a national screening programme was clinically successful as they were more cost and resource-efficient predictors of DDH than primary risk factors, suggesting they should be considered in the national guidance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):234–240