Aims

With recent progress in cancer treatment, the number of advanced-age patients with spinal metastases has been increasing. It is important to clarify the influence of advanced age on outcomes following surgery for spinal metastases, especially with a focus on subjective health state values.

Aims. The sacrum is frequently invaded by a pelvic tumour. The aim of this study was to review our experience of treating this group of patients and to identify the feasibility of a new surgical classification in the management of these tumours. Patients and Methods. We reviewed 141 patients who, between 2005 and 2014, had undergone surgical excision of a pelvic tumour with invasion of the sacrum. In a new classification, pelvisacral (Ps) I, II, and III resections refer to a sagittal osteotomy through the ipsilateral wing of the sacrum, through the sacral midline, or lateral to the contralateral sacral foramina, respectively. A Ps a resection describes a pelvic osteotomy through the ilium and a Ps b resection describes a concurrent resection of the acetabulum with osteotomies performed through the pubis and ischium or the pubic symphysis. Within each type, surgical approaches were standardized to guide resection of the tumour. Results. The mean operating time was 5.2 hours (. sd. 1.7) and the mean intraoperative blood loss was 1895 ml (. sd. 1070). Adequate margins were achieved in 112 (79.4%) of 141 patients. Nonetheless, 30 patients (21.3%) had local recurrence. The mean Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS93) lower-limb function score was 68% (. sd. 19; 17 to 100). According to the proposed classification, 92 patients (65%) underwent a Ps I resection, 33 patients (23%) a Ps II resection, and 16 (11%) patients a Ps III resection. Overall, 82 (58%) patients underwent a Ps a resection and 59 (42%) patient a Ps b resections. The new classification predicted surgical outcome. Conclusion. We propose a comprehensive classification of surgical approaches for tumours of the pelvis with sacral invasion. Analysis showed that this classification helped in the surgical management of such patients and had predictive value for surgical outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:798–805

The development of spinal deformity in children with underlying neurodisability can affect their ability to function and impact on their quality of life, as well as compromise provision of nursing care. Patients with neuromuscular spinal deformity are among the most challenging due to the number and complexity of medical comorbidities that increase the risk for severe intraoperative or postoperative complications. A multidisciplinary approach is mandatory at every stage to ensure that all nonoperative measures have been applied, and that the treatment goals have been clearly defined and agreed with the family. This will involve input from multiple specialities, including allied healthcare professionals, such as physiotherapists and wheelchair services. Surgery should be considered when there is significant impact on the patients’ quality of life, which is usually due to poor sitting balance, back or costo-pelvic pain, respiratory complications, or problems with self-care and feeding. Meticulous preoperative assessment is required, along with careful consideration of the nature of the deformity and the problems that it is causing. Surgery can achieve good curve correction and results in high levels of satisfaction from the patients and their caregivers. Modern modular posterior instrumentation systems allow an effective deformity correction. However, the risks of surgery remain high, and involvement of the family at all stages of decision-making is required in order to balance the risks and anticipated gains of the procedure, and to select those patients who can mostly benefit from spinal correction.

In a prospective study, we have evaluated the impact of psychological disturbance on symptoms, self-reported disability and the surgical outcome in a series of 110 patients with carpal tunnel syndrome. Self-reported severity of symptoms and disability were assessed using the patient evaluation measure and the Boston carpal tunnel questionnaire. Psychological distress was assessed using the hospital anxiety and depression scale. There was a significant association between psychological disturbance and the pre-operative symptoms and disability. However, there was no significant association between pre-operative psychological disturbance and the outcome of surgery at six months. We concluded that patients with carpal tunnel syndrome should not be denied surgery because of pre-operative psychological disturbance since it does not adversely affect the surgical outcome

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical predictors of surgical outcome in patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). We reviewed a consecutive series of 248 patients (71 women and 177 men) with CSM who had undergone surgery at our institution between January 2000 and October 2010. Their mean age was 59.0 years (16 to 86). Medical records, office notes, and operative reports were reviewed for data collection. Special attention was focused on pre-operative duration and severity as well as post-operative persistence of myelopathic symptoms. Disease severity was graded according to the Nurick classification. Our multivariate logistic regression model indicated that Nurick grade 2 CSM patients have the highest chance of complete symptom resolution (p < 0.001) and improvement to normal gait (p = 0.004) following surgery. Patients who did not improve after surgery had longer duration of myelopathic symptoms than those who did improve post-operatively (17.85 months (1 to 101) vs 11.21 months (1 to 69); p = 0.002). More advanced Nurick grades were not associated with a longer duration of symptoms (p = 0.906). Our data suggest that patients with Nurick grade 2 CSM are most likely to improve from surgery. The duration of myelopathic symptoms does not have an association with disease severity but is an independent prognostic indicator of surgical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:966–71

From the European Osteosarcoma Intergroup study 202 patients were assessed with respect to their surgical treatment. Although treated in three different centres the survival of the three groups was identical (57% at five years). Two of the centres had rates of limb salvage of 85% and 83%, respectively, while the third had a rate of 49%. The corresponding risks of local recurrence were 13.3%, 6.8% and 2.5%, with all local recurrences arising in limbs with attempted limb salvage. Local recurrence was closely related to the adequacy of the margins of excision and to the chemotherapeutic response. Patients who had undergone limb-salvage surgery and who developed local recurrence still survival at five years). Of patients who relapsed, 31% of those with local recurrence alone were cured by further treatment, as compared with only 10% of those with metastases. Limb-salvage surgery with effective chemotherapy remains the optimum treatment for osteosarcoma.

We evaluated the duration of hospitalisation, occurrence of infections, hip dislocations, revisions, and mortality following primary hip and knee replacement in 857 patients with Parkinson’s disease and compared them with 2571 matched control patients. The data were collected from comprehensive nationwide Finnish health registers. The mean follow-up was six years (1 to 13). The patients with Parkinson’s disease had a longer mean length of stay (21 days [1 to 365] vs 13 [1 to 365] days) and an increased risk for hip dislocation during the first post-operative year (hazard ratio (HR) 2.33, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.02 to 5.32). There was no difference in infection and revision rates, and one-year mortality. In longer follow-up, patients with Parkinson’s disease had higher mortality (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.68 to 2.25) and only 274 (34.7%) were surviving ten years after surgery. In patients with Parkinson’s disease, cardiovascular and psychiatric comorbidity were associated with prolonged hospitalisation and cardiovascular diseases also with increased mortality.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:486–91.

We compared the length of hospitalisation, rate of infection, dislocation of the hip and revision, and mortality following primary hip and knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (n = 1064) and a matched control group (n = 3192). The data were collected from nationwide Finnish health registers. Patients with Alzheimer’s disease had a longer peri-operative hospitalisation (median 13 days vs eight days, p < 0.001) and an increased risk for hip revision with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.76 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 3.00). Dislocation was the leading indication for revision. There was no difference in the rates of infection, dislocation of the hip, knee revision and short-term mortality. In long-term follow-up, patients with Alzheimer’s disease had a higher mortality (HR 1.43; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.70), and only one third survived ten years post-operatively. Increased age and comorbidity were associated with longer peri-operative hospitalisation in patients with Alzheimer’s disease.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:654–61.

Aims. Tenosynovial giant cell tumour (TGCT) is a rare benign tumour of the musculoskeletal system. Surgical management is fraught with challenges due to high recurrence rates. The aim of this study was to describe surgical treatment and evaluate surgical outcomes of TGCT at an Australian tertiary referral centre for musculoskeletal tumours and to identify factors affecting recurrence rates. Methods. A prospective database of all patients with TGCT surgically managed by two orthopaedic oncology surgeons was reviewed. All cases irrespective of previous treatment were included and patients without follow-up were excluded. Pertinent tumour characteristics and surgical outcomes were collected for analysis. Results. There were 111 total cases included in the study; 71 (64%) were female, the mean age was 36 years (SD 13.6), and the knee (n = 64; 57.7%) was the most commonly affected joint. In all, 60 patients (54.1%) had diffuse-type (D-TGCT) disease, and 94 patients (84.7%) presented therapy-naïve as "primary cases" (PC). The overall recurrence rate was 46.8% for TGCT. There was a statistically significant difference in recurrence rates between D-TGCT and localized disease (75.0% vs 13.7%, relative risk (RR) 3.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17 to 5.34; p < 0.001), and for those who were referred in the ”revision cases” (RC) group compared to the PC group (82.4% vs 48.9%, RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.28; p = 0.011). Age, sex, tumour volume, and mean duration of symptoms were not associated with recurrence (p > 0.05). Conclusion. Recurrence rates remain high even at a tertiary referral hospital. Highest rates are seen in D-TGCT and “revision cases”. Due to the risks of recurrence, the complexity of surgery, and the need for adjuvant therapy, this paper further supports the management of TGCT in a tertiary referral multi-disciplinary orthopaedic oncology service. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):846–852

The October 2023 Spine Roundup. 360. looks at: Cutting through surgical smoke: the science of cleaner air in spinal operations; Unlocking success: key factors in thoracic spine decompression and fusion for ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament; Deep learning algorithm for identifying cervical cord compression due to degenerative canal stenosis on radiography; Surgeon experience influences robotics learning curve for minimally invasive lumbar fusion; Decision-making algorithm for the surgical treatment of degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis of L4/L5; Response to preoperative steroid injections predicts surgical outcomes in patients undergoing fusion for isthmic spondylolisthesis

The importance of registries has been brought into focus by recent UK national reports focusing on implant (Cumberlege) and surgeon (Paterson) performance. National arthroplasty registries provide real-time, real-world information about implant, hospital, and surgeon performance and allow case identification in the event of product recall or adverse surgical outcomes. They are a valuable resource for research and service improvement given the volume of data recorded and the longitunidal nature of data collection. This review discusses the current value of registry data as it relates to both clinical practice and research. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):356–360

Aims. Hip arthroscopy has gained prominence as a primary surgical intervention for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). This study aimed to identify radiological features, and their combinations, that predict the outcome of hip arthroscopy for FAI. Methods. A prognostic cross-sectional cohort study was conducted involving patients from a single centre who underwent hip arthroscopy between January 2013 and April 2021. Radiological metrics measured on conventional radiographs and magnetic resonance arthrography were systematically assessed. The study analyzed the relationship between these metrics and complication rates, revision rates, and patient-reported outcomes. Results. Out of 810 identified hip arthroscopies, 359 hips were included in the study. Radiological risk factors associated with unsatisfactory outcomes after cam resection included a dysplastic posterior wall, Tönnis grade 2 or higher, and over-correction of the α angle. The presence of acetabular retroversion and dysplasia were also significant predictors for worse surgical outcomes. Notably, over-correction of both cam and pincer deformities resulted in poorer outcomes than under-correction. Conclusion. We recommend caution in performing hip arthroscopy in patients who have three positive acetabular retroversion signs. Acetabular dysplasia with a lateral centre-edge angle of less than 20° should not be treated with isolated hip arthroscopy. Acetabular rim-trimming should be avoided in patients with borderline dysplasia, and care should be taken to avoid over-correction of a cam deformity and/or pincer deformity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):775–782

Aims. Extensive literature exists relating to the management of shoulder instability, with a more recent focus on glenoid and humeral bone loss. However, the optimal timing for surgery following a dislocation remains unclear. There is concern that recurrent dislocations may worsen subsequent surgical outcomes, with some advocating stabilization after the first dislocation. The aim of this study was to determine if the recurrence of instability following arthroscopic stabilization in patients without significant glenoid bone loss was influenced by the number of dislocations prior to surgery. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the PubMed, EMBASE, Orthosearch, and Cochrane databases with the following search terms: ((shoulder or glenohumeral) and (dislocation or subluxation) and arthroscopic and (Bankart or stabilisation or stabilization) and (redislocation or re-dislocation or recurrence or instability)). Methodology followed the PRISMA guidelines. Data and outcomes were synthesized by two independent reviewers, and papers were assessed for bias and quality. Results. Overall, 35 studies including 7,995 shoulders were eligible for analysis, with a mean follow-up of 32.7 months (12 to 159.5). The rate of post-stabilization instability was 9.8% in first-time dislocators, 9.1% in recurrent dislocators, and 8.5% in a mixed cohort. A descriptive analysis investigated the influence of recurrent instability or age in the risk of instability post-stabilization, with an association seen with increasing age and a reduced risk of recurrence post-stabilization. Conclusion. Using modern arthroscopic techniques, patients sustaining an anterior shoulder dislocation without glenoid bone loss can expect a low risk of recurrence postoperatively, and no significant difference was found between first-time and recurrent dislocators. Furthermore, high-risk cohorts can expect a low, albeit slightly higher, rate of redislocation. With the findings of this study, patients and clinicians can be more informed as to the likely outcomes of arthroscopic stabilization within this patient subset. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1141–1149

Aims. Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in total hip arthroplasty in the elderly may occur but has been subject to limited investigation. This study analyzed infection characteristics, surgical outcomes, and perioperative complications of octogenarians undergoing treatment for PJI in a single university-based institution. Methods. We identified 33 patients who underwent treatment for PJIs of the hip between January 2010 and December 2019 using our institutional joint registry. Mean age was 82 years (80 to 90), with 19 females (57%) and a mean BMI of 26 kg/m. 2. (17 to 41). Mean American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade was 3 (1 to 4) and mean Charlson Comorbidity Index was 6 (4 to 10). Leading pathogens included coagulase-negative Staphylococci (45%) and Enterococcus faecalis (9%). Two-stage exchange was performed in 30 joints and permanent resection arthroplasty in three. Kaplan-Meier survivorship analyses were performed. Mean follow-up was five years (3 to 7). Results. The two-year survivorship free of any recurrent PJI was 72% (95% confidence interval (CI) 56 to 89; 18 patients at risk). There were a total of nine recurrent PJIs at a mean of one year (16 days to eight years), one for the same pathogen as at index infection. One additional surgical site infection was noted at two weeks, resulting in a 69% (95% CI 52 to 86; 17 patients at risk) survivorship free of any infection at two years. There were two additional revisions for dislocations at one month each. As such, the two-year survivorship free of any revision was 61% (95% CI 42 to 80; 12 patients at risk). In addition to the aforementioned revisions, there was one additional skin grafting for a decubitus ulcer, resulting in a survivorship free of any reoperation of 54% (95% CI 35 to 73; ten patients at risk) at two years. Mean Clavien-Dindo score of perioperative complications was two out of five, with one case of perioperative death noted at six days. Conclusion. Octogenarians undergoing surgery for PJI of the hip are at low risk of acute mortality, but are at moderate risk of other perioperative complications. One in two patients will undergo a reoperation within two years, with 70% attributable to recurrent infections. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):135–139

Aims. Custom triflange acetabular components (CTACs) play an important role in reconstructive orthopaedic surgery, particularly in revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) and pelvic tumour resection procedures. Accurate CTAC positioning is essential to successful surgical outcomes. While prior studies have explored CTAC positioning in rTHA, research focusing on tumour cases and implant flange positioning precision remains limited. Additionally, the impact of intraoperative navigation on positioning accuracy warrants further investigation. This study assesses CTAC positioning accuracy in tumour resection and rTHA cases, focusing on the differences between preoperative planning and postoperative implant positions. Methods. A multicentre observational cohort study in Australia between February 2017 and March 2021 included consecutive patients undergoing acetabular reconstruction with CTACs in rTHA (Paprosky 3A/3B defects) or tumour resection (including Enneking P2 peri-acetabular area). Of 103 eligible patients (104 hips), 34 patients (35 hips) were analyzed. Results. CTAC positioning was generally accurate, with minor deviations in cup inclination (mean 2.7°; SD 2.84°), anteversion (mean 3.6°; SD 5.04°), and rotation (mean 2.1°; SD 2.47°). Deviation of the hip centre of rotation (COR) showed a mean vector length of 5.9 mm (SD 7.24). Flange positions showed small deviations, with the ischial flange exhibiting the largest deviation (mean vector length of 7.0 mm; SD 8.65). Overall, 83% of the implants were accurately positioned, with 17% exceeding malpositioning thresholds. CTACs used in tumour resections exhibited higher positioning accuracy than rTHA cases, with significant differences in inclination (1.5° for tumour vs 3.4° for rTHA) and rotation (1.3° for tumour vs 2.4° for rTHA). The use of intraoperative navigation appeared to enhance positioning accuracy, but this did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion. This study demonstrates favourable CTAC positioning accuracy, with potential for improved accuracy through intraoperative navigation. Further research is needed to understand the implications of positioning accuracy on implant performance and long-term survival. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):260–268

Aims. Frailty has been gathering attention as a factor to predict surgical outcomes. However, the association of frailty with postoperative complications remains controversial in spinal metastases surgery. We therefore designed a prospective study to elucidate risk factors for postoperative complications with a focus on frailty. Methods. We prospectively analyzed 241 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent palliative surgery from June 2015 to December 2021. Postoperative complications were assessed by the Clavien-Dindo classification; scores of ≥ Grade II were defined as complications. Data were collected regarding demographics (age, sex, BMI, and primary cancer) and preoperative clinical factors (new Katagiri score, Frankel grade, performance status, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, spinal instability neoplastic score, modified Frailty Index-11 (mFI), diabetes, and serum albumin levels). Univariate and multivariate analyses were developed to identify risk factors for postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Results. Overall, 57 postoperative complications occurred in 47 of 241 (19.5%) patients. The most common complications were wound infection/dehiscence, urinary tract infection, and pneumonia. Univariate analysis identified preoperative radiotherapy (p = 0.028), mFI (p < 0.001), blood loss ≥ 500 ml (p = 0.016), and preoperative molecular targeted drugs (p = 0.030) as potential risk factors. From the receiver operating characteristic curve, the clinically optimal cut-off value of mFI was 0.27 (sensitivity, 46.8%; specificity, 79.9%). Multivariate analysis identified mFI ≥ 0.27 (odds ratio (OR) 2.94 (95% CI 1.44 to 5.98); p = 0.003) and preoperative radiotherapy (OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.46); p = 0.049) as significant risk factors. In particular, urinary tract infection (p = 0.012) and pneumonia (p = 0.037) were associated with mFI ≥ 0.27. Furthermore, the severity of postoperative complications was positively correlated with mFI (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The mFI is a useful tool to predict the incidence and the severity of postoperative complications in spinal metastases surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1469–1476

Aims. Social media is a popular resource for patients seeking medical information and sharing experiences. periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is the gold-standard treatment for symptomatic acetabular dysplasia with good long-term outcomes. However, little is known regarding the perceived outcomes of PAO on social media. The aims of this study were to describe the perceived outcomes following PAO using three social media platforms: Facebook, Instagram, and X (formerly known as Twitter). Methods. Facebook, Instagram, and X posts were retrospectively collected from 1 February 2023. Facebook posts were collected from the two most populated interest groups: “periacetabular osteotomy” and “PAO Australia.” Instagram and X posts were queried using the most popular hashtags: #PAOwarrior, #periacetabularosteotomy, #periacetabularosteotomyrecovery, #PAOsurgery, and #PAOrecovery. Posts were assessed for demographic data (sex, race, location), perspective (patient, physician, professional organization, industry), timing (preoperative vs postoperative), and perceived outcome (positive, negative, neutral). Results. A total of 1,054 Facebook posts, 1,003 Instagram posts, and 502 X posts were consecutively assessed from 887 unique authors. The majority (63.3%) of these posts were from patients in the postoperative period, with a median of 84 days postoperatively (interquartile range 20 to 275). The longest follow-up timeframe postoperatively was 20 years. Regarding perceived outcomes, 52.8% expressed satisfaction, 39.7% held neutral opinions, and 7.5% were dissatisfied. Most dissatisfied patients (50.9%) reported pain (chronic or uncontrolled acute) as an attributing factor. Conclusion. Most PAO-perceived surgical outcomes on social media had a positive tone. Findings also indicate that a small percentage of patients reported negative perceived outcomes. However, dissatisfaction with PAO primarily stemmed from postoperative pain. Social media posts from other sources (physicians, hospitals, professional organizations, etc.) trend towards neutrality. Healthcare providers must consider the social media narratives of patients following PAO, as they may reveal additional outcome expectations and help improve patient-centred care, create informed decision-making, and optimize treatment outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):53–59

Aims. Although periacetabular osteotomies are widely used for the treatment of symptomatic dysplastic hips, long-term surgical outcomes and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are still unclear. Accordingly, we assessed hip survival and PROMs at 20 years after transpositional osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA). Methods. A total of 172 hips in 159 patients who underwent TOA were followed up at a mean of 21.02 years (16.6 to 24.6) postoperatively. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess survivorship with an endpoint of total hip arthroplasty (THA). PROMs included the visual analogue scale (VAS) Satisfaction, VAS Pain, Oxford Hip Score (OHS), and Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12). Thresholds for favourable outcomes for OHS (≥ 42) and FJS-12 (≥ 51) were obtained using the receiver operating characteristic curve with VAS Satisfaction ≥ 50 and VAS Pain < 20 as anchors. Results. THA was performed on 37 hips (21.5%) by the latest follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the hip survival rate at 20 years was 79.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 73.7 to 86.3). Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative Tönnis grade significantly influenced hip survival. Tönnis grades 0, 1, and 2 were associated with 20-year survival rates of 93.3% (95% CI 84.8 to 100), 86.7% (95% CI 79.8 to 94.3), and 54.8% (95% CI 41.5 to 72.3), respectively. More than 60% of the patients exhibited favourable PROMs. An advanced Tönnis grade at the latest follow-up and a higher BMI were both significantly associated with unfavourable OHS, but not with other PROMs. Conclusion. This study demonstrated the durability of TOA for hips with Tönnis grades 0 to 1 at 20 years. While the presence of advanced osteoarthritis and higher BMI was associated with lower hip functions (OHS), it was not necessarily associated with worse patient satisfaction and joint awareness. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):767–774

Aims. To clarify the effectiveness of the induced membrane technique (IMT) using beta-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) for reconstruction of segmental bone defects by evaluating clinical and radiological outcomes, and the effect of defect size and operated site on surgical outcomes. Methods. A review of the medical records was conducted of consecutive 35 lower limbs (30 males and five females; median age 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 40 to 61)) treated with IMT using β-TCP between 2014 and 2018. Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS) was examined preoperatively and at final follow-up to clarify patient-centered outcomes. Bone healing was assessed radiologically, and time from the second stage to bone healing was also evaluated. Patients were divided into ≥ 50 mm and < 50 mm defect groups and into femoral reconstruction, tibial reconstruction, and ankle arthrodesis groups. Results. There were ten and 25 defects in the femur and tibia, respectively. Median LEFS improved significantly from 8 (IQR 1.5 to 19.3) preoperatively to 63.5 (IQR 57 to 73.3) at final follow-up (p < 0.001). Bone healing was achieved in all limbs, and median time from the second stage to bone healing was six months (IQR 5 to 10). Median time to bone healing, preoperative LEFS, or postoperative LEFS did not differ significantly between the defect size groups or among the treatment groups. Conclusion. IMT using β-TCP provided satisfactory clinical and radiological outcomes for segmental bone defects in the lower limbs; surgical outcomes were not influenced by bone defect size or operated part. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):456–461

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494