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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 10 | Pages 786 - 794
12 Oct 2022
Harrison CJ Plummer OR Dawson J Jenkinson C Hunt A Rodrigues JN

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate machine-learning-based computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), Oxford Knee Score (OKS), Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), and the Oxford Elbow Score (OES) and its subscales. Methods. We developed CAT algorithms for the OHS, OKS, OSS, overall OES, and each of the OES subscales, using responses to the full-length questionnaires and a machine-learning technique called regression tree learning. The algorithms were evaluated through a series of simulation studies, in which they aimed to predict respondents’ full-length questionnaire scores from only a selection of their item responses. In each case, the total number of items used by the CAT algorithm was recorded and CAT scores were compared to full-length questionnaire scores by mean, SD, score distribution plots, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation (ICC), and the Bland-Altman method. Differences between CAT scores and full-length questionnaire scores were contextualized through comparison to the instruments’ minimal clinically important difference (MCID). Results. The CAT algorithms accurately estimated 12-item questionnaire scores from between four and nine items. Scores followed a very similar distribution between CAT and full-length assessments, with the mean score difference ranging from 0.03 to 0.26 out of 48 points. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and ICC were 0.98 for each 12-item scale and 0.95 or higher for the OES subscales. In over 95% of cases, a patient’s CAT score was within five points of the full-length questionnaire score for each 12-item questionnaire. Conclusion. Oxford Hip Score, Oxford Knee Score, Oxford Shoulder Score, and Oxford Elbow Score (including separate subscale scores) CATs all markedly reduce the burden of items to be completed without sacrificing score accuracy. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):786–794


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 4 | Pages 782 - 787
3 Apr 2021
Mahmood A Rashid F Limb R Cash T Nagy MT Zreik N Reddy G Jaly I As-Sultany M Chan YTC Wilson G Harrison WJ

Aims. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, incidence of hip fracture has not changed. Evidence has shown increased mortality rates associated with COVID-19 infection. However, little is known about the outcomes of COVID-19 negative patients in a pandemic environment. In addition, the impact of vitamin D levels on mortality in COVID-19 hip fracture patients has yet to be determined. Methods. This multicentre observational study included 1,633 patients who sustained a hip fracture across nine hospital trusts in North West England. Data were collected for three months from March 2020 and for the same period in 2019. Patients were matched by Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), hospital, and fracture type. We looked at the mortality outcomes of COVID-19 positive and COVID-19 negative patients sustaining a hip fracture. We also looked to see if vitamin D levels had an impact on mortality. Results. The demographics of the 2019 and 2020 groups were similar, with a slight increase in proportion of male patients in the 2020 group. The 30-day mortality was 35.6% in COVID-19 positive patients and 7.8% in the COVID-19 negative patients. There was a potential association of decreasing vitamin D levels and increasing mortality rates for COVID-19 positive patients although our findings did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion. In 2020 there was a significant increase in 30-day mortality rates of patients who were COVID-19 positive but not of patients who were COVID-19 negative. Low levels of vitamin D may be associated with high mortality rates in COVID-19 positive patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):782–787


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 637 - 643
6 Aug 2024
Abelleyra Lastoria DA Casey L Beni R Papanastasiou AV Kamyab AA Devetzis K Scott CEH Hing CB

Aims. Our primary aim was to establish the proportion of female orthopaedic consultants who perform arthroplasty via cases submitted to the National Joint Registry (NJR), which covers England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and Guernsey. Secondary aims included comparing time since specialist registration, private practice participation, and number of hospitals worked in between male and female surgeons. Methods. Publicly available data from the NJR was extracted on the types of arthroplasty performed by each surgeon, and the number of procedures of each type undertaken. Each surgeon was cross-referenced with the General Medical Council (GMC) website, using GMC number to extract surgeon demographic data. These included sex, region of practice, and dates of full and specialist registration. Results. Of 2,895 surgeons contributing to the NJR in 2023, 102 (4%) were female. The highest proportions of female surgeons were among those who performed elbow (n = 25; 5%), shoulder (n = 24; 4%), and ankle (n = 8; 4%) arthroplasty. Hip (n = 66; 3%) and knee arthroplasty (n = 39; 2%) had the lowest female representation. Female surgeons had been practising for a median of 10.4 years since specialist registration compared to 13.7 years for males (p < 0.001). Northern Ireland was the region with the highest proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons (8%). A greater proportion of male surgeons worked in private practice (63% vs 24%; p < 0.001) and in multiple hospitals (74% vs 40%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Only 4% of surgeons currently contributing cases to the NJR are female, with the highest proportion performing elbow arthroplasty (5%). Female orthopaedic surgeons in the NJR are earlier in their careers than male surgeons, and are less involved in private practice. There is a wide geographical variation in the proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):637–643


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 8 | Pages 655 - 660
2 Aug 2021
Green G Abbott S Vyrides Y Afzal I Kader D Radha S

Aims. Elective orthopaedic services have had to adapt to significant system-wide pressures since the emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019. Length of stay is often recognized as a key marker of quality of care in patients undergoing arthroplasty. Expeditious discharge is key in establishing early rehabilitation and in reducing infection risk, both procedure-related and from COVID-19. The primary aim was to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic length of stay following hip and knee arthroplasty at a high-volume, elective orthopaedic centre. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was performed. Patients undergoing primary or revision hip or knee arthroplasty over a six-month period, from 1 July to 31 December 2020, were compared to the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Demographic data, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, wait to surgery, COVID-19 status, and length of hospital stay were recorded. Results. A total of 1,311 patients underwent hip or knee arthroplasty in the six-month period following recommencement of elective services in 2020 compared to 1,527 patients the year before. Waiting time to surgery increased in post-COVID-19 group (137 days vs 78; p < 0.001). Length of stay also significantly increased (0.49 days; p < 0.001) despite no difference in age or ASA grade. There were no cases of postoperative COVID-19 infection. Conclusion. Time to surgery and length of hospital stay were significantly higher following recommencement of elective orthopaedic services in the latter part of 2020 in comparison to a similar patient cohort from the year before. Longer waiting times may have contributed to the clinical and radiological deterioration of arthritis and general musculoskeletal conditioning, which may in turn have affected immediate postoperative rehabilitation and mobilization, as well as increasing hospital stay. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):655–660


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 7 | Pages 415 - 419
15 Jul 2020
Macey ARM Butler J Martin SC Tan TY Leach WJ Jamal B

Aims. To establish if COVID-19 has worsened outcomes in patients with AO 31 A or B type hip fractures. Methods. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data was performed for a five-week period from 20 March 2020 and the same time period in 2019. The primary outcome was mortality at 30 days. Secondary outcomes were COVID-19 infection, perioperative pulmonary complications, time to theatre, type of anaesthesia, operation, grade of surgeon, fracture type, postoperative intensive care admission, venous thromboembolism, dislocation, infection rates, and length of stay. Results. In all, 76 patients with hip fractures were identified in each group. All patients had 30-day follow-up. There was no difference in age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification or residence at time of injury. However, three in each group were not fit for surgery. No significant difference was found in 30-day mortality; ten patients (13%) in 2019 and 11 patients (14%) in 2020 (p = 0.341). In the 2020 cohort, ten patients tested positive for COVID-19, two (20%) of whom died. There was no significant increase in postoperative pulmonary complications. Median time to theatre was 20 hours (interquartile range (IQR) 16 to 25) in 2019 versus 23 hours (IQR 18 to 30) in 2020 (p = 0.130). Regional anaesthesia increased from 24 (33%) cases in 2019 to 46 (63%) cases in 2020, but ten (14%) required conversion to general anaesthesia. In both groups, 53 (70%) operations were done by trainees. Hemiarthroplasty for 31 B type fractures was the most common operation. No significant difference was found for intensive care admission or 30-day venous thromboembolism, dislocation or infection, or length of stay. Conclusion. Little information exists on mortality and complications after hip fracture during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time of writing, no other study of outcomes in the UK has been published. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:415–419


Aims. Hip fracture patients are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and admission into hospital puts them at further risk. We implemented a two-site orthopaedic trauma service, with ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ hubs, to deliver urgent and infection-controlled trauma care for hip fracture patients, while increasing bed capacity for medical patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A vacated private elective surgical centre was repurposed to facilitate a two-site, ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’, hip fracture service. Patients were screened for COVID-19 infection and either kept at our ‘COVID’ site or transferred to our ‘COVID-free’ site. We collected data for 30 days on patient demographics, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Nottingham Hip Fracture Scores (NHFS), time to surgery, COVID-19 status, mortality, and length of stay (LOS). Results. In all, 47 hip fracture patients presented to our service: 12 were admitted to the ‘COVID’ site and 35 to the ‘COVID-free’ site. The ‘COVID’ site cohort were older (mean 86.8 vs 78.5 years, p = 0.0427) and with poorer CFS (p = 0.0147) and NHFS (p = 0.0023) scores. At the ‘COVID-free’ site, mean time to surgery was less (29.8 vs 52.8 hours, p = 0.0146), and mean LOS seemed shorter (8.7 vs 12.6 days, p = 0.0592). No patients tested positive for COVID-19 infection while at the ‘COVID-free’ site. We redirected 74% of our admissions from the base ‘COVID’ site and created 304 inpatient days’ capacity for medical COVID patients. Conclusion. Acquisition of unused elective orthopaedic capacity from the private sector facilitated a two-site trauma service. Patients were treated expeditiously, while successfully achieving strict infection control. We achieved significant gains in medical bed capacity in response to the COVID-19 demand. The authors propose the repurposing of unused elective operating facilities for a two-site ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ model as a safe and effective way of managing hip fracture patients during the pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:190–197


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 11 | Pages 907 - 912
23 Nov 2022
Hurley RJ McCabe FJ Turley L Maguire D Lucey J Hurson CJ

Aims

The use of fluoroscopy in orthopaedic surgery creates risk of radiation exposure to surgeons. Appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) can help mitigate this. The primary aim of this study was to assess if current radiation protection in orthopaedic trauma is safe. The secondary aims were to describe normative data of radiation exposure during common orthopaedic procedures, evaluate ways to improve any deficits in protection, and validate the use of electronic personal dosimeters (EPDs) in assessing radiation dose in orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

Radiation exposure to surgeons during common orthopaedic trauma operations was prospectively assessed using EPDs and thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs). Normative data for each operation type were calculated and compared to recommended guidelines.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 9 | Pages 507 - 512
18 Sep 2024
Farrow L Meek D Leontidis G Campbell M Harrison E Anderson L

Despite the vast quantities of published artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that target trauma and orthopaedic applications, very few progress to inform clinical practice. One key reason for this is the lack of a clear pathway from development to deployment. In order to assist with this process, we have developed the Clinical Practice Integration of Artificial Intelligence (CPI-AI) framework – a five-stage approach to the clinical practice adoption of AI in the setting of trauma and orthopaedics, based on the IDEAL principles (https://www.ideal-collaboration.net/). Adherence to the framework would provide a robust evidence-based mechanism for developing trust in AI applications, where the underlying algorithms are unlikely to be fully understood by clinical teams.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):507–512.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 2 | Pages 241 - 248
1 Feb 2005
Pynsent PB Adams DJ Disney SP

The Oxford hip and knee scores are used to measure the outcome after primary total hip and knee replacement. We propose a new layout for the instrument in which patients are always asked about both limbs. In addition, we have defined an alternative scoring method which accounts for missing data. Over a period of 4.5 years, 4086 (1423 patients) and 5708 (1458 patients) questionnaires were completed for hips and knees, respectively. The hip score had a pre-operative median of 70.8 (interquartile range (IQR) 58.3 to 81.2) decreasing to 20.8 (IQR 10.4 to 35.4) after one year. The knee score had a pre-operative median of 68.8 (IQR 56.2 to 79.2) decreasing to 29.2 (IQR 14.6 to 45.8). There was no further significant change in either score after one year. As a result of the data analysis, we suggest that the score percentiles can be used as a standard for auditing patients before and after operation


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 82-B, Issue 4 | Pages 561 - 565
1 May 2000
Gaine WJ Ramamohan NA Hussein NA Hullin MG McCreath SW

We have studied prospectively the outcome of wound discharge in patients after arthroplasty of the hip and knee. Over a period of 3.5 years 530 primary arthroplasties were carried out in one hospital. Postoperative wound infections developed in 82. At a mean follow-up of two years a comparison was made between these patients and 82 with healthy wounds, in terms of symptoms and signs of deep infection. There was an incidence of 1.1% of early deep infection, within six weeks in all cases. The rate of ‘superficial’ infection was 17.3% in the hips, 10.5% in the knees and 14.3% in total. At a mean follow-up of 26 months, there were no significant differences between the patients with infected wounds and a matched group of patients with healthy wounds in terms of the ESR, level of C-reactive protein, white cell count and radiological scores, but clinical scores were significantly worse in the patients with infected knees (p < 0.05). The length of stay was also significantly longer in this group (mean 14.6 days in the healthy wound group, 19 days in the problem group; p < 0.005). There was, however, no convincing evidence that these wound infections led to deep infection and early revision in the early to medium follow-up period. A larger and longer prospective trial would be necessary to shed more light on this potential problem


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 8 | Pages 1134 - 1139
1 Aug 2005
Schäfer M Elke R Young JR Gancs P Kindler CH

Using a computer-based quality assurance program, we analysed peri-operative data on 160 patients undergoing one-stage bilateral hip or knee arthroplasties under regional anaesthesia with routine anaesthetic monitoring and only using peripheral intravenous access for peri-operative safety. We monitored defined intra-operative adverse events such as hypotension, myocardial ischaemia, arrhythmias, hypovolaemia, hypertension and early post-operative complications. We also determined post-operative hip and knee function, and patient satisfaction with different aspects of the anaesthetic management. Those patients undergoing one-stage bilateral arthroplasties were matched according to a cross-stratification which used three variables (American Society of Anesthesiologists’ physical status scoring system, age and joint replaced) to patients undergoing unilateral hip or knee arthroplasties. Serious intra-operative adverse events were, with the exception of intra-operative hypotension, very infrequent in patients undergoing bilateral (nine adverse events) as well as unilateral arthroplasties (five adverse events). Early post-operative complications were also infrequent in both groups. However, the risks of receiving a heterologous blood transfusion (odds ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 5.0, estimated by exact conditional logistic regression) or vasoactive drugs (odds ratio 3.9; 95% CI 2.0 to 7.8) were significantly greater for patients undergoing bilateral operations. Patient satisfaction with anaesthesia was high; all patients who underwent the one-stage bilateral operation would choose the same anaesthetic technique again


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 5, Issue 1 | Pages 12 - 14
1 Feb 2016


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1675 - 1680
1 Dec 2005
Howie C Hughes H Watts AC

This population-based study investigated the incidence and trends in venous thromboembolic disease after total hip and knee arthroplasty over a ten-year period. Death or readmission for venous thromboembolic disease up to two years after surgery for all patients in Scotland was the primary outcome. The incidence of venous thromboembolic disease, including fatal pulmonary embolism, three months after surgery was 2.27% for primary hip arthroplasty and 1.79% for total knee arthroplasty. The incidence of fatal pulmonary embolism within three months was 0.22% for total hip arthroplasty and 0.15% for total knee arthroplasty. The majority of events occurred after hospital discharge, with no apparent trend over the period. The data support current advice that prophylaxis should be continued for at least six weeks following surgery. Despite the increased use of policies for prophylaxis and earlier mobilisation, there has been no change in the incidence of venous thromboembolic disease


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 704 - 712
14 Sep 2023
Mercier MR Koucheki R Lex JR Khoshbin A Park SS Daniels TR Halai MM

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the risk of postoperative complications in COVID-19-positive patients undergoing common orthopaedic procedures. Methods. Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP) database, patients who underwent common orthopaedic surgery procedures from 1 January to 31 December 2021 were extracted. Patient preoperative COVID-19 status, demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, and postoperative complications were analyzed. Propensity score matching was conducted between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients. Multivariable regression was then performed to identify both patient and provider risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of 30-day postoperative adverse events. Results. Of 194,121 included patients, 740 (0.38%) were identified to be COVID-19-positive. Comparison of comorbidities demonstrated that COVID-19-positive patients had higher rates of diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease. After propensity matching and controlling for all preoperative variables, multivariable analysis found that COVID-19-positive patients were at increased risk of several postoperative complications, including: any adverse event, major adverse event, minor adverse event, death, venous thromboembolism, and pneumonia. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery were at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. Conclusion. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery had increased odds of many 30-day postoperative complications, with hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery being the most high-risk procedures. These data reinforce prior literature demonstrating increased risk of venous thromboembolic events in the acute postoperative period. Clinicians caring for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures should be mindful of these increased risks, and attempt to improve patient care during the ongoing global pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):704–712


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 10 | Pages 850 - 857
19 Oct 2021
Blankstein AR Houston BL Fergusson DA Houston DS Rimmer E Bohm E Aziz M Garland A Doucette S Balshaw R Turgeon A Zarychanski R

Aims. Orthopaedic surgeries are complex, frequently performed procedures associated with significant haemorrhage and perioperative blood transfusion. Given refinements in surgical techniques and changes to transfusion practices, we aim to describe contemporary transfusion practices in orthopaedic surgery in order to inform perioperative planning and blood banking requirements. Methods. We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent orthopaedic surgery at four Canadian hospitals between 2014 and 2016. We studied all patients admitted to hospital for nonarthroscopic joint surgeries, amputations, and fracture surgeries. For each surgery and surgical subgroup, we characterized the proportion of patients who received red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, the mean/median number of RBC units transfused, and exposure to platelets and plasma. Results. Of the 14,584 included patients, the most commonly performed surgeries were knee arthroplasty (24.8%), hip arthroplasty (24.6%), and hip fracture surgery (17.4%). A total of 10.3% of patients received RBC transfusion; the proportion of patients receiving RBC transfusions varied widely based on the surgical subgroup (0.0% to 33.1%). Primary knee arthroplasty and hip arthroplasty, the two most common surgeries, were associated with in-hospital transfusion frequencies of 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. RBC transfusion occurred in 25.0% of hip fracture surgeries, accounting for the greatest total number of RBC units transfused in our cohort (38.0% of all transfused RBC units). Platelet and plasma transfusions were uncommon. Conclusion. Orthopaedic surgeries were associated with variable rates of transfusion. The rate of RBC transfusion is highly dependent on the surgery type. Identifying surgeries with the highest transfusion rates, and further evaluation of factors that contribute to transfusion in identified at-risk populations, can serve to inform perioperative planning and blood bank requirements, and facilitate pre-emptive transfusion mitigation strategies. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):850–857


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 1 | Pages 10 - 15
1 Jan 2012
Ollivere B Wimhurst JA M. Clark I Donell ST

The most frequent cause of failure after total hip replacement in all reported arthroplasty registries is peri-prosthetic osteolysis. Osteolysis is an active biological process initiated in response to wear debris. The eventual response to this process is the activation of macrophages and loss of bone.

Activation of macrophages initiates a complex biological cascade resulting in the final common pathway of an increase in osteolytic activity. The biological initiators, mechanisms for and regulation of this process are beginning to be understood. This article explores current concepts in the causes of, and underlying biological mechanism resulting in peri-prosthetic osteolysis, reviewing the current basic science and clinical literature surrounding the topic.


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 1, Issue 5 | Pages 36 - 36
1 Oct 2012
Villar RN


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1261 - 1267
14 Sep 2020
van Erp JHJ Gielis WP Arbabi V de Gast A Weinans H Arbabi S Öner FC Castelein RM Schlösser TPC

Aims. The aetiologies of common degenerative spine, hip, and knee pathologies are still not completely understood. Mechanical theories have suggested that those diseases are related to sagittal pelvic morphology and spinopelvic-femoral dynamics. The link between the most widely used parameter for sagittal pelvic morphology, pelvic incidence (PI), and the onset of degenerative lumbar, hip, and knee pathologies has not been studied in a large-scale setting. Methods. A total of 421 patients from the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) database, a population-based observational cohort, with hip and knee complaints < 6 months, aged between 45 and 65 years old, and with lateral lumbar, hip, and knee radiographs available, were included. Sagittal spinopelvic parameters and pathologies (spondylolisthesis and degenerative disc disease (DDD)) were measured at eight-year follow-up and characteristics of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at baseline and eight-year follow-up. Epidemiology of the degenerative disorders and clinical outcome scores (hip and knee pain and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index) were compared between low PI (< 50°), normal PI (50° to 60°), and high PI (> 60°) using generalized estimating equations. Results. Demographic details were not different between the different PI groups. L4 to L5 and L5 to S1 spondylolisthesis were more frequently present in subjects with high PI compared to low PI (L4 to L5, OR 3.717; p = 0.024 vs L5 to S1 OR 7.751; p = 0.001). L5 to S1 DDD occurred more in patients with low PI compared to high PI (OR 1.889; p = 0.010), whereas there were no differences in L4 to L5 DDD among individuals with a different PI. The incidence of hip OA was higher in participants with low PI compared to normal (OR 1.262; p = 0.414) or high PI (OR 1.337; p = 0.274), but not statistically different. The incidence of knee OA was higher in individuals with a high PI compared to low PI (OR 1.620; p = 0.034). Conclusion. High PI is a risk factor for development of spondylolisthesis and knee OA. Low pelvic incidence is related to DDD, and may be linked to OA of the hip. Level of Evidence: 1b. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1261–1267


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 103 - 110
1 Feb 2021
Oussedik S MacIntyre S Gray J McMeekin P Clement ND Deehan DJ

Aims. The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. Methods. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. Results. By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. Conclusion. There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103–110


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 11 | Pages 951 - 957
16 Nov 2021
Chuntamongkol R Meen R Nash S Ohly NE Clarke J Holloway N

Aims. The aim of this study was to surveil whether the standard operating procedure created for the NHS Golden Jubilee sufficiently managed COVID-19 risk to allow safe resumption of elective orthopaedic surgery. Methods. This was a prospective study of all elective orthopaedic patients within an elective unit running a green pathway at a COVID-19 light site. Rates of preoperative and 30-day postoperative COVID-19 symptoms or infection were examined for a period of 40 weeks. The unit resumed elective orthopaedic services on 29 June 2020 at a reduced capacity for a limited number of day-case procedures with strict patient selection criteria, increasing to full service on 29 August 2020 with no patient selection criteria. Results. A total of 2,373 cases were planned in the 40-week study period. Surgery was cancelled in 59 cases, six (10.2%) of which were due to having a positive preoperative COVID-19 screening test result. Of the remaining 2,314, 996 (43%) were male and 1,318 (57%) were female. The median age was 67 years (interquartile range 59.2 to 74.6). The median American Society of Anesthesiologists grade was 2. Hip and knee arthroplasties accounted for the majority of the operations (76%). Six patients tested positive for COVID-19 preoperatively (0.25%) and 39 patients were tested for COVID-19 within 30 days after discharge, with only five patients testing positive (0.22%). Conclusion. Through strict application of a COVID-19 green pathway, elective orthopaedic surgery could be safely delivered to a large number of patients with no selection criteria. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):951–957