Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306

Aims. The aim of this study was to report health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and joint-specific function in patients waiting for total hip or knee arthroplasty surgery (THA or TKA) in Northern Ireland, compared to published literature and a matched normal population. Secondary aims were to report emergency department (ED) and out-of-hours general practitioner (OOH GP) visits, new prescriptions of strong opioids, and new prescriptions of antidepressants while waiting. Methods. This was a cohort study of 991 patients on the waiting list for arthroplasty in a single Northern Ireland NHS trust: 497 on the waiting list for ≤ three months; and 494 waiting ≥ three years. Postal surveys included the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), and Oxford Hip and Knee scores to assess HRQoL and joint-specific function. Electronic records determined prescriptions since addition to the waiting list and patient attendances at OOH GP/EDs. Results. Overall, 712/991 (71.8%) responded at ≤ three months for THA (n = 164) and TKA (n = 199), and ≥ three years for THA (n = 88) and TKA (n = 261). The median EQ-5D-5L score in those waiting ≤ three months was 0.155 (interquartile range (IQR) -0.118 to 0.375) and 0.189 (IQR -0.130 to 0.377) for ≥ three years. Matched controls had a median EQ-5D-5L 0.837 (IQR 0.728 to 1.000). Compared to matched controls, EQ-5D-5L scores were significantly lower in both waiting cohorts (p < 0.001) with significant differences found in every domain. Negative scores, indicating a state “worse than death”, were present in 40% at ≤ three months and 38% at ≥ three years. Patients waiting ≥ three years had significantly more opioid (28.4% vs 15.2%; p < 0.001) and antidepressant prescriptions (15.2% vs 9.9%; p = 0.034) and significantly more joint-related attendances at unscheduled care (11.7% vs 0% with ≥ one ED attendance (p < 0.001) and (25.5% vs 2.5% ≥ one OOH GP attendance (p < 0.001)). Conclusion. Patients on waiting lists in Northern Ireland are severely disabled with the worst HRQoL and functional scores studied. The lack of deterioration in EQ-5D-5L and joint-specific scores between patients waiting ≤ three months and ≥ three years likely reflects floor effects of these scores. Prolonged waits were associated with increased dependence on strong opiates, depression, and attendances at unscheduled care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):783–794

Aims. We reviewed all patients who sustained a fracture of the hip and were treated in Northern Ireland over a period of 15 years to identify trends in incidence, the demographics of the patients, the rates of mortality, the configuration of the fracture and the choice of implant. Patients and Methods. Since 01 January 2001 data about every fracture of the hip sustained in an adult have been collected centrally in Northern Ireland. All adults with such a fracture between 2000 and 2015 were included in the study. Temporal changes in their demographics, the mode of treatment, and outcomes including mortality were analysed. Results. The incidence of fractures of the hip, in Northern Ireland, rose from 54 in 100 000 in 2000 to 86 in 100 000 in 2015. If these trends continue, we predict this rising to 128 in 100 000 in 2030. We found that these patients are becoming older and increasingly frail, as assessed by the American Association of Anesthesiology grade. Complex extracapsular fractures have become more common since 2009, which may explain the increased use of cephalomedullary nails. Despite increasing frailty, the 30-day and 12-month rates of mortality fell significantly (p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. Fractures of the hip are becoming more common and more complex in an aging, increasingly frail population. We expect these trends to continue. This will place an increasing economic and clinical strain on healthcare systems. Forward planning is essential to put systems in place that can deal with the increasing demand. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1223–31

Aims. This study describes the variation in the annual volumes of revision hip arthroplasty (RHA) undertaken by consultant surgeons nationally, and the rate of accrual of RHA and corresponding primary hip arthroplasty (PHA) volume for new consultants entering practice. Methods. National Joint Registry (NJR) data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man were received for 84,816 RHAs and 818,979 PHAs recorded between April 2011 and December 2019. RHA data comprised all revision procedures, including first-time revisions of PHA and any subsequent re-revisions recorded in public and private healthcare organizations. Annual procedure volumes undertaken by the responsible consultant surgeon in the 12 months prior to every index procedure were determined. We identified a cohort of ‘new’ HA consultants who commenced practice from 2012 and describe their rate of accrual of PHA and RHA experience. Results. The median annual consultant RHA volume, averaged across all cases, was 21 (interquartile range (IQR) 11 to 34; range 0 to 181). Of 1,695 consultants submitting RHA cases within the study period, the top 20% of surgeons by annual volume performed 74.2% of total RHA case volume. More than half of all consultants who had ever undertaken a RHA maintained an annual volume of just one or fewer RHA, however, collectively contributed less than 3% of the total RHA case volume. Consultant PHA and RHA volumes were positively correlated. Lower-volume surgeons were more likely to undertake RHA for urgent indications (such as infection) as a proportion of their practice, and to do so on weekends and public holidays. Conclusion. The majority of RHAs were undertaken by higher-volume surgeons. There was considerable variation in RHA volumes by indication, day of the week, and between consultants nationally. The rate of accrual of RHA experience by new consultants is low, and has important implications for establishing an experienced RHA consultant workforce. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1060–1069

It has been suggested that Perthes’ disease is more prevalent in urban areas, and that the risk increases with deprivation. We present the findings of a preliminary analysis of Perthes’ disease in Northern Ireland, which is shown to have one of the highest national annual rates of incidence in the world (11.6 per 100 000). Of the 313 children diagnosed over a seven-year period, 311 were allocated to the enumeration districts of the 1991 census, thus allowing the incidence to be calculated using both spatial and non-spatial aggregation. The cases were grouped according to the size of the settlement from highly urbanised to open countryside and by level of area deprivation. While the incidence of Perthes’ disease was found to be associated with indicators of the level of deprivation for areas, there was no evidence to suggest that there was an increased risk in urban areas; the highest rate was found in the most deprived rural category

1. In Northern Ireland a campaign to eradicate congenital dislocation of the hip by neonatal demonstration of abnormal laxity and early splintage has been reviewed. The number of live births in the area covered is approximately 30,000 per annum. 2. The results to date suggest that the problem has been greatly over-simplified. The number of established dislocations has not fallen appreciably. 3. Failures have occurred both in early diagnosis and in early treatment. 4. To help close the diagnostic net all children should be screened again during the first year. Infants born by breech presentation and infants with a family history of dislocation should have radiographs taken in the early months, even if clinical tests are negative. 5. With regard to neonatal treatment, early splintage has failed to prevent established dislocation in about 2·4 per cent of the hips so treated. How to detect such resistant cases is an important problem

Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) should be diagnosed as early as possible to optimise treatment. The current United Kingdom recommendations for the selective screening of DDH include a clinical examination at birth and at six weeks. In Northern Ireland babies continue to have an assessment by a health visitor at four months of age. As we continue to see late presentations of DDH, beyond one year of age, we hypothesised that a proportion had missed an opportunity for earlier diagnosis. We expect those who presented to our service with Tonnis grade III or IV hips and decreased abduction would have had clinical signs at their earlier assessments.

We performed a retrospective review of all patients born in Northern Ireland between 2008 and 2010 who were diagnosed with DDH after their first birthday. There were 75 856 live births during the study period of whom 645 children were treated for DDH (8.5 per 1000). The minimum follow-up of our cohort from birth, to detect late presentation, was four years and six months. Of these, 32 children (33 hips) were diagnosed after their first birthday (0.42 per 1000).

With optimum application of our selective screening programme 21 (65.6%) of these children had the potential for an earlier diagnosis, which would have reduced the incidence of late diagnosis to 0.14 per 1000. As we saw a peak in diagnosis between three and five months our findings support the continuation of the four month health visitor check. Our study adds further information to the debate regarding selective versus universal screening.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1572–6.

Arthroplasty registries are important for the surveillance of joint replacements and the evaluation of outcome. Independent validation of registry data ensures high quality. The ability for orthopaedic implant retrieval centres to validate registry data is not known. We analysed data from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales and Northern Ireland (NJR) for primary metal-on-metal hip arthroplasties performed between 2003 and 2013. Records were linked to the London Implant Retrieval Centre (RC) for validation. A total of 67 045 procedures on the NJR and 782 revised pairs of components from the RC were included. We were able to link 476 procedures (60.9%) recorded with the RC to the NJR successfully. However, 306 procedures (39.1%) could not be linked. The outcome recorded by the NJR (as either revised, unrevised or death) for a primary procedure was incorrect in 79 linked cases (16.6%). The rate of registry-retrieval linkage and correct assignment of outcome code improved over time. The rates of error for component reference numbers on the NJR were as follows: femoral head category number 14/229 (5.0%); femoral head batch number 13/232 (5.3%); acetabular component category number 2/293 (0.7%) and acetabular component batch number 24/347 (6.5%).

Registry-retrieval linkage provided a novel means for the validation of data, particularly for component fields. This study suggests that NJR reports may underestimate rates of revision for many types of metal-on-metal hip replacement. This is topical given the increasing scope for NJR data. We recommend a system for continuous independent evaluation of the quality and validity of NJR data.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:10–18.

Aims. Our primary aim was to establish the proportion of female orthopaedic consultants who perform arthroplasty via cases submitted to the National Joint Registry (NJR), which covers England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and Guernsey. Secondary aims included comparing time since specialist registration, private practice participation, and number of hospitals worked in between male and female surgeons. Methods. Publicly available data from the NJR was extracted on the types of arthroplasty performed by each surgeon, and the number of procedures of each type undertaken. Each surgeon was cross-referenced with the General Medical Council (GMC) website, using GMC number to extract surgeon demographic data. These included sex, region of practice, and dates of full and specialist registration. Results. Of 2,895 surgeons contributing to the NJR in 2023, 102 (4%) were female. The highest proportions of female surgeons were among those who performed elbow (n = 25; 5%), shoulder (n = 24; 4%), and ankle (n = 8; 4%) arthroplasty. Hip (n = 66; 3%) and knee arthroplasty (n = 39; 2%) had the lowest female representation. Female surgeons had been practising for a median of 10.4 years since specialist registration compared to 13.7 years for males (p < 0.001). Northern Ireland was the region with the highest proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons (8%). A greater proportion of male surgeons worked in private practice (63% vs 24%; p < 0.001) and in multiple hospitals (74% vs 40%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Only 4% of surgeons currently contributing cases to the NJR are female, with the highest proportion performing elbow arthroplasty (5%). Female orthopaedic surgeons in the NJR are earlier in their careers than male surgeons, and are less involved in private practice. There is a wide geographical variation in the proportion of female arthroplasty surgeons. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):637–643

Aims. The overall aim of this study was to determine the impact of deprivation with regard to quality of life, demographics, joint-specific function, attendances for unscheduled care, opioid and antidepressant use, having surgery elsewhere, and waiting times for surgery on patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Postal surveys were sent to 1,001 patients on the waiting list for THA or TKA in a single Northern Ireland NHS Trust, which consisted of the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), and Oxford Hip and Knee Scores. Electronic records determined prescriptions since addition to the waiting list and out-of-hour GP and emergency department attendances. Deprivation quintiles were determined by the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017 using postcodes of home addresses. Results. Overall, 707 postal surveys were returned, of which 277 (39.2%) reported negative “worse than death” EQ-5D scores and 219 (21.9%) reported the consumption of strong opioids. Those from the least deprived quintile 5 had a significantly better EQ-5D index (median 0.223 (interquartile range (IQR) -0.080 to 0.503) compared to those in the most deprived quintiles 1 (median 0.049 (IQR -0.199 to 0.242), p = 0.004), 2 (median 0.076 (IQR -0.160 to 0.277; p = 0.010), and 3 (median 0.076 (IQR-0.153 to 0.301; p = 0.010). Opioid use was significantly greater in the most deprived quintile 1 compared to all other quintiles (45/146 (30.8%) vs 174/809 (21.5%); odds ratio 1.74 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.57; p = 0.005). Conclusion. More deprived patients have worse health-related quality of life and greater opioid use while waiting for THA and TKA than more affluent patients. For patients awaiting surgery, more information and alternative treatment options should be available. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(5):444–451

Aims. To determine the likelihood of achieving a successful closed reduction (CR) of a dislocated hip in developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) after failed Pavlik harness treatment We report the rate of avascular necrosis (AVN) and the need for further surgical procedures. Methods. Data was obtained from the Northern Ireland DDH database. All children who underwent an attempted closed reduction between 2011 and 2016 were identified. Children with a dislocated hip that failed Pavlik harness treatment were included in the study. Successful closed reduction was defined as a hip that reduced in theatre and remained reduced. Most recent imaging was assessed for the presence of AVN using the Kalamchi and MacEwen classification. Results. There were 644 dislocated hips in 543 patients initially treated in Pavlik harness. In all, 67 hips failed Pavlik harness treatment and proceeded to arthrogram (CR) under general anaesthetic at an average age of 180 days. The number of hips that were deemed reduced in theatre was 46 of the 67 (69%). A total of 11 hips re-dislocated and underwent open reduction, giving a true successful CR rate of 52%. For the total cohort of 67 hips that went to theatre for arthrogram and attempted CR, five (7%) developed clinically significant AVN at an average follow-up of four years and one month, while none of the 35 hips whose reduction was truly successful developed clinically significant AVN. Conclusion. The likelihood of a successful closed reduction of a dislocated hip in the Northern Ireland population, which has failed Pavlik harness treatment, is 52% with a clinically significant AVN rate of 7%. As such, we continue to advocate closed reduction under general anaesthetic for the hip that has failed Pavlik harness. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):594–598

Aims. To monitor the performance of services for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) in Northern Ireland and identify potential improvements to enhance quality of service and plan for the future. Methods. This was a prospective observational study, involving all infants treated for DDH between 2011 and 2017. Children underwent clinical assessment and radiological investigation as per the regional surveillance policy. The regional radiology data was interrogated to quantify the use of ultrasound and ionizing radiation for this population. Results. Evidence-based changes were made to the Northern Ireland screening programme, including an increase in ultrasound scanning capacity and expansion of nurse-led screening clinics. The number of infant hip ultrasound scans increased from 4,788 in 2011, to approximately 7,000 in 2013 and subsequent years. The number of hip radiographs on infants of less than one year of age fell from 7,381 to 2,208 per year. There was a modest increase in the treatment rate from 10.9 to 14.3 per 1,000 live births but there was a significant reduction in the number of closed hip reductions. The incidence of infants diagnosed with DDH after one year of age was 0.30 per 1,000 live births over the entire period. Conclusion. Improving compliance with the regional infant hip screening protocols led to reduction in operative procedures and reduced the number of pelvic radiographs of infants. We conclude that performance monitoring of screening programmes for DDH is essential to provide a quality service. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):495–500

Aims. This is a multicentre, prospective assessment of a proportion of the overall orthopaedic trauma caseload of the UK. It investigates theatre capacity, cancellations, and time to surgery in a group of hospitals that is representative of the wider population. It identifies barriers to effective practice and will inform system improvements. Methods. Data capture was by collaborative approach. Patients undergoing procedures from 22 August 2022 and operated on before 31 October 2022 were included. Arm one captured weekly caseload and theatre capacity. Arm two concerned patient and injury demographics, and time to surgery for specific injury groups. Results. Data was available from 90 hospitals across 86 data access groups (70 in England, two in Wales, ten in Scotland, and four in Northern Ireland). After exclusions, 709 weeks' of data on theatre capacity and 23,138 operations were analyzed. The average number of cases per operating session was 1.73. Only 5.8% of all theatre sessions were dedicated day surgery sessions, despite 29% of general trauma patients being eligible for such pathways. In addition, 12.3% of patients experienced at least one cancellation. Delays to surgery were longest in Northern Ireland and shortest in England and Scotland. There was marked variance across all fracture types. Open fractures and fragility hip fractures, influenced by guidelines and performance renumeration, had short waits, and varied least. In all, nine hospitals had 40 or more patients waiting for surgery every week, while seven had less than five. Conclusion. There is great variability in operative demand and list provision seen in this study of 90 UK hospitals. There is marked variation in nearly all injuries apart from those associated with performance monitoring. There is no evidence of local network level coordination of care for orthopaedic trauma patients. Day case operating and pathways of care are underused and are an important area for service improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):463–471

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the provision of arthroplasty services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This study aimed to quantify the backlog, analyze national trends, and predict time to recovery. Methods. We performed an analysis of the mandatory prospective national registry of all independent and publicly funded hip, knee, shoulder, elbow, and ankle replacements in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between January 2019 and December 2022 inclusive, totalling 729,642 operations. The deficit was calculated per year compared to a continuation of 2019 volume. Total deficit of cases between 2020 to 2022 was expressed as a percentage of 2019 volume. Sub-analyses were performed based on procedure type, country, and unit sector. Results. Between January 2020 and December 2022, there was a deficit of 158,994 joint replacements. This is equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal expected operating activity (71.6%). There were 104,724 (-47.1%) fewer performed in 2020, 41,928 (-18.9%) fewer performed in 2021, and 12,342 (-5.6%) fewer performed in 2022, respectively, than in 2019. Independent-sector procedures increased to make it the predominant arthroplasty provider (53% in 2022). NHS activity was 73.2% of 2019 levels, while independent activity increased to 126.8%. Wales (-136.3%) and Northern Ireland (-121.3%) recorded deficits of more than a year’s worth of procedures, substantially more than England (-66.7%). It would take until 2031 to eliminate this deficit with an immediate expansion of capacity over 2019 levels by 10%. Conclusion. The arthroplasty deficit following the COVID-19 pandemic is now equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal operating activity, and continues to increase. Patients awaiting different types of arthroplasty, in each country, have been affected disproportionately. A rapid and significant expansion in services is required to address the deficit, and will still take many years to rectify. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):834–841

Aims. The Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) is a 12-item measure commonly used for the assessment of shoulder surgeries. This study explores whether computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a shortened, individually tailored questionnaire while maintaining test accuracy. Methods. A total of 16,238 preoperative OSS were available in the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey dataset (April 2012 to April 2022). Prior to CAT, the foundational item response theory (IRT) assumptions of unidimensionality, monotonicity, and local independence were established. CAT compared sequential item selection with stopping criteria set at standard error (SE) < 0.32 and SE < 0.45 (equivalent to reliability coefficients of 0.90 and 0.80) to full-length patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) precision. Results. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for unidimensionality exhibited satisfactory fit with root mean square standardized residual (RSMSR) of 0.06 (cut-off ≤ 0.08) but not with comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.85 or Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) of 0.82 (cut-off > 0.90). Monotonicity, measured by H value, yielded 0.482, signifying good monotonic trends. Local independence was generally met, with Yen’s Q3 statistic > 0.2 for most items. The median item count for completing the CAT simulation with a SE of 0.32 was 3 (IQR 3 to 12), while for a SE of 0.45 it was 2 (IQR 2 to 6). This constituted only 25% and 16%, respectively, when compared to the 12-item full-length questionnaire. Conclusion. Calibrating IRT for the OSS has resulted in the development of an efficient and shortened CAT while maintaining accuracy and reliability. Through the reduction of redundant items and implementation of a standardized measurement scale, our study highlights a promising approach to alleviate time burden and potentially enhance compliance with these widely used outcome measures. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(8):392–400

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify variables associated with time to revision, demographic details associated with revision indication, and type of prosthesis employed, and to describe the survival of hinge knee arthroplasty (HKA) when used for first-time knee revision surgery and factors that were associated with re-revision. Methods. Patient demographic details, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, indication for revision, surgical approach, surgeon grade, implant type (fixed and rotating), time of revision from primary implantation, and re-revision if undertaken were obtained from the National Joint Registry data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man over an 18-year period (2003 to 2021). Results. There were 3,855 patient episodes analyzed with a median age of 73 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 80), and the majority were female (n = 2,480, 64.3%). The median time to revision from primary knee arthroplasty was 1,219 days (IQR 579 to 2,422). Younger age (p < 0.001), decreasing ASA grade (p < 0.001), and indications for revision of sepsis (p < 0.001), unexplained pain (p < 0.001), non-polyethylene wear (p < 0.001), and malalignment (p < 0.001) were all associated with an earlier time to revision from primary implantation. The median follow-up was 4.56 years (range 0.00 to 17.52), during which there were 410 re-revisions. The overall unadjusted probability of re-revision for all revision HKAs at one, five, and ten years after surgery were 2.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2 to 3.3), 10.7% (95% CI 9.6 to 11.9), and 16.2% (95% CI 14.5 to 17.9), respectively. Male sex (p < 0.001), younger age (p < 0.001), revision for septic indications (p < 0.001) or implant fracture (p = 0.010), a fixed hinge (p < 0.001), or surgery performed by a non-consultant grade (p = 0.023) were independently associated with an increased risk of re-revision. Conclusion. There were several factors associated with time to first revision. The re-revision rate was 16.2% at ten years; however, the risk factors associated with an increased risk of re-revision could be used to counsel patients regarding their outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):47–55

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478