Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. We aimed to develop a gene signature that predicts the occurrence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) by studying its genetic mechanism. Methods. Five datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Unsupervised consensus cluster analysis was used to determine new PMOP subtypes. To determine the central genes and the core modules related to PMOP, the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WCGNA) was applied. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis was used to explore the biological processes underlying key genes. Logistic regression univariate analysis was used to screen for statistically significant variables. Two algorithms were used to select important PMOP-related genes. A logistic regression model was used to construct the PMOP-related gene profile. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, Harrell’s concordance index, a calibration chart, and decision curve analysis were used to characterize PMOP-related genes. Then, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was used to verify the expression of the PMOP-related genes in the gene signature. Results. We identified three PMOP-related subtypes and four core modules. The muscle system process, muscle contraction, and actin filament-based movement were more active in the hub genes. We obtained five feature genes related to PMOP. Our analysis verified that the gene signature had good predictive power and applicability. The outcomes of the GSE56815 cohort were found to be consistent with the results of the earlier studies. qRT-PCR results showed that RAB2A and FYCO1 were amplified in clinical samples. Conclusion. The PMOP-related gene signature we developed and verified can accurately predict the risk of PMOP in patients. These results can elucidate the molecular mechanism of RAB2A and FYCO1 underlying PMOP, and yield new and improved treatment strategies, ultimately helping PMOP monitoring. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(8):548–560

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. Transfusion after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has become rare, and identification of causative factors allows preventive measures. The aim of this study was to determine patient-specific factors that increase the risk of needing a blood transfusion. Methods. All patients who underwent elective THA were analyzed retrospectively in this single-centre study from 2020 to 2021. A total of 2,892 patients were included. Transfusion-related parameters were evaluated. A multiple logistic regression was performed to determine whether age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, sex, or preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) could predict the need for transfusion within the examined patient population. Results. The overall transfusion rate was 1.2%. Compared to the group of patients without blood transfusion, the transfused group was on average older (aged 73.8 years (SD 9.7) vs 68.6 years (SD 10.1); p = 0.020) and was mostly female (p = 0.003), but showed no significant differences in terms of BMI (28.3 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.9) vs 28.7 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.2); p = 0.720) or ASA grade (2.2 (SD 0.5) vs 2.1 (SD 0.4); p = 0.378). The regression model identified a cutoff Hb level of < 7.6 mmol/l (< 12.2 g/dl), aged > 73 years, and a BMI of 35.4 kg/m² or higher as the three most reliable predictors associated with postoperative transfusion in THA. Conclusion. The possibility of transfusion is predictable based on preoperatively available parameters. The proposed thresholds for preoperative Hb level, age, and BMI can help identify patients and take preventive measures if necessary. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):560–564

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess mapping models to predict the three-level version of EuroQoL five-dimension utility index (EQ-5D-3L) from the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and validate these before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients was used to create the prediction models, and a second cohort of 721 patients from a different centre was used to validate the models, all of whom underwent TKA. Patient characteristics, BMI, OKS, and EQ-5D-3L were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Generalized linear regression was used to formulate the prediction models. Results. There were significant correlations between the OKS and EQ-5D-3L preoperatively (r = 0.68; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.61; p < 0.001). Three different models (preoperative, postoperative, and change) were created. There were no significant differences between the actual and predicted mean EQ-5D-3L utilities at any timepoint or for change in the scores (p > 0.090) in the validation cohort. There was a significant correlation between the actual and predicted EQ-5D-3L utilities preoperatively (r = 0.63; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.56; p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that a lower utility was overestimated, and higher utility was underestimated. The individual predicted EQ-5D-3L that was within ± 0.05 and ± 0.010 (minimal clinically important difference (MCID)) of the actual EQ-5D-3L varied between 13% to 35% and 26% to 64%, respectively, according to timepoint assessed and change in the scores, but was not significantly different between the modelling and validation cohorts (p ≥ 0.148). Conclusion. The OKS can be used to estimate EQ-5D-3L. Predicted individual patient utility error beyond the MCID varied from one-third to two-thirds depending on timepoint assessed, but the mean for a cohort did not differ and could be employed for this purpose. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):573–581

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. Frailty has been gathering attention as a factor to predict surgical outcomes. However, the association of frailty with postoperative complications remains controversial in spinal metastases surgery. We therefore designed a prospective study to elucidate risk factors for postoperative complications with a focus on frailty. Methods. We prospectively analyzed 241 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent palliative surgery from June 2015 to December 2021. Postoperative complications were assessed by the Clavien-Dindo classification; scores of ≥ Grade II were defined as complications. Data were collected regarding demographics (age, sex, BMI, and primary cancer) and preoperative clinical factors (new Katagiri score, Frankel grade, performance status, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, spinal instability neoplastic score, modified Frailty Index-11 (mFI), diabetes, and serum albumin levels). Univariate and multivariate analyses were developed to identify risk factors for postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Results. Overall, 57 postoperative complications occurred in 47 of 241 (19.5%) patients. The most common complications were wound infection/dehiscence, urinary tract infection, and pneumonia. Univariate analysis identified preoperative radiotherapy (p = 0.028), mFI (p < 0.001), blood loss ≥ 500 ml (p = 0.016), and preoperative molecular targeted drugs (p = 0.030) as potential risk factors. From the receiver operating characteristic curve, the clinically optimal cut-off value of mFI was 0.27 (sensitivity, 46.8%; specificity, 79.9%). Multivariate analysis identified mFI ≥ 0.27 (odds ratio (OR) 2.94 (95% CI 1.44 to 5.98); p = 0.003) and preoperative radiotherapy (OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.46); p = 0.049) as significant risk factors. In particular, urinary tract infection (p = 0.012) and pneumonia (p = 0.037) were associated with mFI ≥ 0.27. Furthermore, the severity of postoperative complications was positively correlated with mFI (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The mFI is a useful tool to predict the incidence and the severity of postoperative complications in spinal metastases surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1469–1476

Aims. This study examined windswept deformity (WSD) of the knee, comparing prevalence and contributing factors in healthy and osteoarthritic (OA) cohorts. Methods. A case-control radiological study was undertaken comparing 500 healthy knees (250 adults) with a consecutive sample of 710 OA knees (355 adults) undergoing bilateral total knee arthroplasty. The mechanical hip-knee-ankle angle (mHKA), medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA), and lateral distal femoral angle (LDFA) were determined for each knee, and the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA), joint line obliquity, and Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) types were calculated. WSD was defined as a varus mHKA of < -2° in one limb and a valgus mHKA of > 2° in the contralateral limb. The primary outcome was the proportional difference in WSD prevalence between healthy and OA groups. Secondary outcomes were the proportional difference in WSD prevalence between constitutional varus and valgus CPAK types, and to explore associations between predefined variables and WSD within the OA group. Results. WSD was more prevalent in the OA group compared to the healthy group (7.9% vs 0.4%; p < 0.001, relative risk (RR) 19.8). There was a significant difference in means and variance between the mHKA of the healthy and OA groups (mean -1.3° (SD 2.3°) vs mean -3.8°(SD 6.6°) respectively; p < 0.001). No significant differences existed in MPTA and LDFA between the groups, with a minimal difference in aHKA (mean -0.9° healthy vs -0.5° OA; p < 0.001). Backwards logistic regression identified meniscectomy, rheumatoid arthritis, and osteotomy as predictors of WSD (odds ratio (OR) 4.1 (95% CI 1.7 to 10.0), p = 0.002; OR 11.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 89.3); p = 0.016; OR 41.6 (95% CI 5.4 to 432.9), p ≤ 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. This study found a 20-fold greater prevalence of WSD in OA populations. The development of WSD is associated with meniscectomy, rheumatoid arthritis, and osteotomy. These findings support WSD being mostly an acquired condition following skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):879–885

Aims. Hip fractures are some of the most common fractures encountered in orthopaedic practice. We aimed to identify whether perioperative hypotension is a predictor of 30-day mortality, and to stratify patient groups that would benefit from closer monitoring and early intervention. While there is literature on intraoperative blood pressure, there are limited studies examining pre- and postoperative blood pressure. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a one-year period from December 2021 to December 2022. Patient demographic details, biochemical results, and haemodynamic observations were taken from electronic medical records. Statistical analysis was conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, and the effects of independent variables estimated with the Wald statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated with the log-rank test. Results. A total of 528 patients were identified as suitable for inclusion. On multivariate analysis, postoperative hypotension of a systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg two to 24 hours after surgery showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for 30-day mortality (HR 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 8.9); p < 0.001) and was an independent risk factor accounting for sex (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 5.2); p = 0.003), age (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.1); p = 0.016), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); p < 0.001), time to theatre > 24 hours (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2); p = 0.025), and preoperative anaemia (HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 5.2); p = 0.043). A preoperative SBP of < 120 mmHg was close to achieving significance (HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.6); p = 0.052). Conclusion. Our study is the first to demonstrate that postoperative hypotension within the first 24 hours is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Clinicians should recognize patients who have a SBP of < 90 mmHg in the early postoperative period, and be aware of the increased mortality risk in this specific cohort who may benefit from a closer level of monitoring and early intervention. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):189–194

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. A proximal femur fracture (PFF) is a common orthopaedic presentation, with an incidence of over 25,000 cases reported in the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR) in 2018. Hip fractures are known to have high mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in predicting 30-day and one-year mortality after a PFF in older patients. Methods. A retrospective review of all fragility hip fractures who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the ANZHFR between 2017 and 2018 was undertaken at a single large volume tertiary hospital. There were 509 patients included in the study with one-year follow-up obtained in 502 cases. The CFS was applied retrospectively to patients according to their documented pre-morbid function and patients were stratified into five groups according to their frailty score. The groups were compared using t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the chi-squared test. The discriminative ability of the CFS to predict mortality was then compared with American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification and the patient’s chronological age. Results. A total of 38 patients were deceased at 30 days and 135 patients at one year. The 30-day mortality rate increased from 1.3% (CFS 1 to 3; 1/80) to 14.6% (CFS ≥ 7; 22/151), and the one-year mortality increased from 3.8% (CFS 1 to 3; 3/80) to 41.7% (CFS ≥ 7; 63/151). The CFS was demonstrated superior discriminative ability in predicting mortality after PFF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.699; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.651 to 0.747) when compared with the ASA (AUC 0.634; 95% CI 0.576 to 0.691) and chronological age groups (AUC 0.585; 95% CI 0.523 to 0.648). Conclusion. The CFS demonstrated utility in predicting mortality after PFF fracture. The CFS can be easily performed by non-geriatricians and may help to reduce age related bias influencing surgical decision making. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:443–449

Aims. To evaluate if union of clavicle fractures can be predicted at six weeks post-injury by the presence of bridging callus on ultrasound. Methods. Adult patients managed nonoperatively with a displaced mid-shaft clavicle were recruited prospectively. Ultrasound evaluation of the fracture was undertaken to determine if sonographic bridging callus was present. Clinical risk factors at six weeks were used to stratify patients at high risk of nonunion with a combination of Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH) ≥ 40, fracture movement on examination, or absence of callus on radiograph. Results. A total of 112 patients completed follow-up at six months with a nonunion incidence of 16.7% (n = 18/112). Sonographic bridging callus was detected in 62.5% (n = 70/112) of the cohort at six weeks post-injury. If present, union occurred in 98.6% of the fractures (n = 69/70). If absent, nonunion developed in 40.5% of cases (n = 17/42). The sensitivity to predict union with sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was 73.4% and the specificity was 94.4%. Regression analysis found that failure to detect sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was associated with older age, female sex, simple fracture pattern, smoking, and greater fracture displacement (Nagelkerke R. 2. = 0.48). Of the cohort, 30.4% (n = 34/112) had absent sonographic bridging callus in addition to one or more of the clinical risk factors at six weeks that predispose to nonunion. If one was present the nonunion rate was 35%, 60% with two, and 100% when combined with all three. Conclusion. Ultrasound combined with clinical risk factors can accurately predict fracture healing at six weeks following a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(2):113–121

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to elective orthopaedic services. The primary objective of this study was to examine changes in functional scores in patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Secondary objectives were to investigate differences between these groups and identify those in a health state ‘worse than death’ (WTD). Methods. In this prospective cohort study, preoperative Oxford hip and knee scores (OHS/OKS) were recorded for patients added to a waiting list for THA, TKA, or UKA, during the initial eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and repeated at 14 months into the pandemic (mean interval nine months (SD 2.84)). EuroQoL five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index scores were also calculated at this point in time, with a negative score representing a state WTD. OHS/OKS were analyzed over time and in relation to the EQ-5D-5L. Results. A total of 174 patients (58 THA, 74 TKA, 42 UKA) were eligible, after 27 were excluded (one died, seven underwent surgery, 19 non-responders). The overall mean OHS/OKS deteriorated from 15.43 (SD 6.92), when patients were added to the waiting list, to 11.77 (SD 6.45) during the pandemic (p < 0.001). There were significantly worse EQ-5D-5L index scores in the THA group (p = 0.005), with 22 of these patients (38%) in a health state WTD, than either the TKA group (20 patients; 27% WTD), or the UKA group (nine patients; 21% WTD). A strong positive correlation between the EQ-5D-5L index score and OHS/OKS was observed (r = 0.818; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that an OHS/OKS lower than nine predicted a health state WTD (88% sensitivity and 73% specificity). Conclusion. OHS/OKS deteriorated significantly among patients awaiting lower limb arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, 51 patients were in a health state WTD, representing 29% of our entire cohort, which is considerably worse than existing pre-pandemic data. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):138–145

Aims. The distal radius is a major site of osteoporotic bone loss resulting in a high risk of fragility fracture. This study evaluated the capability of a cortical index (CI) at the distal radius to predict the local bone mineral density (BMD). Methods. A total of 54 human cadaver forearms (ten singles, 22 pairs) (19 to 90 years) were systematically assessed by clinical radiograph (XR), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), CT, as well as high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT). Cortical bone thickness (CBT) of the distal radius was measured on XR and CT scans, and two cortical indices mean average (CBTavg) and gauge (CBTg) were determined. These cortical indices were compared to the BMD of the distal radius determined by DXA (areal BMD (aBMD)) and HR-pQCT (volumetric BMD (vBMD)). Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to compare the results and degree of reliability. Results. The CBT could accurately be determined on XRs and highly correlated to those determined on CT scans (r = 0.87 to 0.93). The CBTavg index of the XRs significantly correlated with the BMD measured by DXA (r = 0.78) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.63), as did the CBTg index with the DXA (r = 0.55) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.64) (all p < 0.001). A high correlation of the BMD and CBT was observed between paired specimens (r = 0.79 to 0.96). The intra- and inter-rater reliability was excellent (ICC 0.79 to 0.92). Conclusion. The cortical index (CBTavg) at the distal radius shows a close correlation to the local BMD. It thus can serve as an initial screening tool to estimate the local bone quality if quantitative BMD measurements are unavailable, and enhance decision-making in acute settings on fracture management or further osteoporosis screening. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):820–829

Objectives. Researchers continue to seek easier ways to evaluate the quality of bone and screen for osteoporosis and osteopenia. Until recently, radiographic images of various parts of the body, except the distal femur, have been reappraised in the light of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) findings. The incidence of osteoporotic fractures around the knee joint in the elderly continues to increase. The aim of this study was to propose two new radiographic parameters of the distal femur for the assessment of bone quality. Methods. Anteroposterior radiographs of the knee and bone mineral density (BMD) and T-scores from DXA scans of 361 healthy patients were prospectively analyzed. The mean cortical bone thickness (CBTavg) and the distal femoral cortex index (DFCI) were the two parameters that were proposed and measured. Intra- and interobserver reliabilities were assessed. Correlations between the BMD and T-score and these parameters were investigated and their value in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and osteopenia was evaluated. Results. The DFCI, as a ratio, had higher reliability than the CBTavg. Both showed significant correlation with BMD and T-score. When compared with DFCI, CBTavg showed better correlation and was better for predicting osteoporosis and osteopenia. Conclusion. The CBTavg and DFCI are simple and reliable screening tools for the prediction of osteoporosis and osteopenia. The CBTavg is more accurate but the DFCI is easier to use in clinical practice. Cite this article: Q-F. He, H. Sun, L-Y. Shu, Y. Zhu, X-T. Xie, Y. Zhan, C-F. Luo. Radiographic predictors for bone mineral loss: Cortical thickness and index of the distal femur. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:468–475. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.77.BJR-2017-0332.R1

Aims. The lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) is a plain radiological measure of superolateral cover of the femoral head. This study aims to establish the correlation between 2D radiological and 3D CT measurements of acetabular morphology, and to describe the relationship between LCEA and femoral head cover (FHC). Methods. This retrospective study included 353 periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs) performed between January 2014 and December 2017. Overall, 97 hips in 75 patients had 3D analysis by Clinical Graphics, giving measurements for LCEA, acetabular index (AI), and FHC. Roentgenographical LCEA, AI, posterior wall index (PWI), and anterior wall index (AWI) were measured from supine AP pelvis radiographs. The correlation between CT and roentgenographical measurements was calculated. Sequential multiple linear regression was performed to determine the relationship between roentgenographical measurements and CT FHC. Results. CT-measured LCEA and AI correlated strongly with roentgenographical LCEA (r = 0.92; p < 0.001) and AI (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). Radiological LCEA correlated very strongly with CT FHC (r = 0.92; p < 0.001). The sum of AWI and PWI also correlated strongly with CTFHC (r = 0.73; p < 0.001). CT measurements of LCEA and AI were 3.4° less and 2.3° greater than radiological LCEA and AI measures. There was a linear relation between radiological LCEA and CT FHC. The linear regression model statistically significantly predicted FHC from LCEA, F(1,96) = 545.1 (p < 0.001), adjusted R. 2. = 85.0%, with the prediction equation: CT FHC(%) = 42.1 + 0.77(XRLCEA). Conclusion. CT and roentgenographical measurement of acetabular parameters are comparable. Currently, a radiological LCEA greater than 25° is considered normal. This study demonstrates that those with hip pain and normal radiological acetabular parameters may still have deficiencies in FHC. More sophisticated imaging techniques such as 3D CT should be considered for those with hip pain to identify deficiencies in FHC. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):12–19

Objectives. Intramedullary fixation is considered the most stable treatment for pertrochanteric fractures of the proximal femur and cut-out is one of the most frequent mechanical complications. In order to determine the role of clinical variables and radiological parameters in predicting the risk of this complication, we analysed the data pertaining to a group of patients recruited over the course of six years. Methods. A total of 571 patients were included in this study, which analysed the incidence of cut-out in relation to several clinical variables: age; gender; the AO Foundation and Orthopaedic Trauma Association classification system (AO/OTA); type of nail; cervical-diaphyseal angle; surgical wait times; anti-osteoporotic medication; complete post-operative weight bearing; and radiological parameters (namely the lag-screw position with respect to the femoral head, the Cleveland system, the tip-apex distance (TAD), and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance (CalTAD)). Results. The incidence of cut-out across the sample was 5.6%, with a higher incidence in female patients. A significantly higher risk of this complication was correlated with lag-screw tip positioning in the upper part of the femoral head in the anteroposterior radiological view, posterior in the latero-lateral radiological view, and in the Cleveland peripheral zones. The tip-apex distance and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance were found to be highly significant predictors of the risk of cut-out at cut-offs of 30.7 mm and 37.3 mm, respectively, but the former appeared more reliable than the latter in predicting the occurrence of this complication. Conclusion. The tip-apex distance remains the most accurate predictor of cut-out, which is significantly greater above a cut-off of 30.7 mm. Cite this article: G. Caruso, M. Bonomo, G. Valpiani, G. Salvatori, A. Gildone, V. Lorusso, L. Massari. A six-year retrospective analysis of cut-out risk predictors in cephalomedullary nailing for pertrochanteric fractures: Can the tip-apex distance (TAD) still be considered the best parameter?. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:481–488. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2016-0299.R1

Aims. To devise a method to quantify and optimize tightness when inserting cortical screws, based on bone characterization and screw geometry. Methods. Cortical human cadaveric diaphyseal tibiae screw holes (n = 20) underwent destructive testing to firstly establish the relationship between cortical thickness and experimental stripping torque (T. str. ), and secondly to calibrate an equation to predict T. str. Using the equation’s predictions, 3.5 mm screws were inserted (n = 66) to targeted torques representing 40% to 100% of T. str. , with recording of compression generated during tightening. Once the target torque had been achieved, immediate pullout testing was performed. Results. Cortical thickness predicted T. str. (R. 2. = 0.862; p < 0.001) as did an equation based on tensile yield stress, bone-screw friction coefficient, and screw geometries (R. 2. = 0.894; p < 0.001). Compression increased with screw tightness up to 80% of the maximum (R. 2. = 0.495; p < 0.001). Beyond 80%, further tightening generated no increase in compression. Pullout force did not change with variations in submaximal tightness beyond 40% of T. str. (R. 2. = 0.014; p = 0.175). Conclusion. Screw tightening between 70% and 80% of the predicted maximum generated optimum compression and pullout forces. Further tightening did not considerably increase compression, made no difference to pullout, and increased the risk of the screw holes being stripped. While further work is needed for development of intraoperative methods for accurate and reliable prediction of the maximum tightness for a screw, this work justifies insertion torque being considerably below the maximum. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):493–500

Objectives. In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. Methods. A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separately for the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. Results. In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. Conclusion. FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines. Cite this article: F. Eggermont, L. C. Derikx, N. Verdonschot, I. C. M. van der Geest, M. A. A. de Jong, A. Snyers, Y. M. van der Linden, E. Tanck. Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians? Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:430–439. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0325.R2

Objectives. Preservation of posterior condylar offset (PCO) has been shown to correlate with improved functional results after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Whether this is also the case for revision TKA, remains unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent effect of PCO on early functional outcome after revision TKA. Methods. A total of 107 consecutive aseptic revision TKAs were performed by a single surgeon during an eight-year period. The mean age was 69.4 years (39 to 85) and there were 59 female patients and 48 male patients. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Short-form (SF)-12 score were assessed pre-operatively and one year post-operatively. Patient satisfaction was also assessed at one year. Joint line and PCO were assessed radiographically at one year. Results. There was a significant improvement in the OKS (10.6 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.8 to 12.3) and the SF-12 physical component score (5.9, 95% CI 4.1 to 7.8). PCO directly correlated with change in OKS (p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis confirmed the independent effect of PCO on the OKS (p < 0.001) and the SF-12 physical score (p = 0.02). The overall rate of satisfaction was 85% and on logistic regression analysis improvement in the OKS (p = 0.002) was a significant predictor of patient satisfaction, which is related to PCO; although this was not independently associated with satisfaction. Conclusion. Preservation of PCO should be a major consideration when undertaking revision TKA. The option of increasing PCO to balance the flexion gap while maintaining the joint line should be assessed intra-operatively. Cite this article: N. D. Clement, D. J. MacDonald, D. F. Hamilton, R. Burnett. Posterior condylar offset is an independent predictor of functional outcome after revision total knee arthroplasty. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:172–178. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.63.BJR-2015-0021.R1

Aims. Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures remains challenging even with state-of-the-art locking plates. Despite the demonstrated biomechanical benefit of screw tip augmentation with bone cement, the clinical findings have remained unclear, potentially as the optimal augmentation combinations are unknown. The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the biomechanical benefits of the augmentation options in a humeral locking plate using finite element analysis (FEA). Methods. A total of 64 cement augmentation configurations were analyzed using six screws of a locking plate to virtually fix unstable three-part fractures in 24 low-density proximal humerus models under three physiological loading cases (4,608 simulations). The biomechanical benefit of augmentation was evaluated through an established FEA methodology using the average peri-screw bone strain as a validated predictor of cyclic cut-out failure. Results. The biomechanical benefit was already significant with a single cemented screw and increased with the number of augmented screws, but the configuration was highly influential. The best two-screw (mean 23%, SD 3% reduction) and the worst four-screw (mean 22%, SD 5%) combinations performed similarly. The largest benefits were achieved with augmenting screws purchasing into the calcar and having posteriorly located tips. Local bone mineral density was not directly related to the improvement. Conclusion. The number and configuration of cemented screws strongly determined how augmentation can alleviate the predicted risk of cut-out failure. Screws purchasing in the calcar and posterior humeral head regions may be prioritized. Although requiring clinical corroborations, these findings may explain the controversial results of previous clinical studies not controlling the choices of screw augmentation

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In-hospital length of stay (LOS) and discharge dispositions following arthroplasty could act as surrogate measures for improvement in patient pathways, and have major cost saving implications for healthcare providers. With the ever-growing adoption of robotic technology in arthroplasty, it is imperative to evaluate its impact on LOS. The objectives of this study were to compare LOS and discharge dispositions following robotic arm-assisted total knee arthroplasty (RO TKA) and unicompartmental arthroplasty (RO UKA) versus conventional technique (CO TKA and UKA).

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Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

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An algorithm to determine the constitutional alignment of the lower limb once arthritic deformity has occurred would be of value when undertaking kinematically aligned total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to determine if the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) algorithm could estimate the constitutional alignment of the lower limb following development of significant arthritis.

Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims. This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model. Methods. The study included 538 joints that underwent primary THA. The patients were divided into groups using unsupervised time series clustering for five-year BMD loss of Gruen zone 7 postoperatively, and a machine-learning model to predict the BMD loss was developed. Additionally, the predictor for BMD loss was extracted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate, which is the most important categorical predictor for BMD loss, was examined by calculating the change in predictive probability when hypothetically switching between the inclusion and exclusion of bisphosphonate. Results. Time series clustering allowed us to divide the patients into two groups, and the predictive factors were identified including patient- and operation-related factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the BMD loss prediction averaged 0.734. Virtual administration of bisphosphonate showed on average 14% efficacy in preventing BMD loss of zone 7. Additionally, stem types and preoperative triglyceride (TG), creatinine (Cr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and creatine kinase (CK) showed significant association with the estimated patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate. Conclusion. Periprosthetic BMD loss after THA is predictable based on patient- and operation-related factors, and optimal prescription of bisphosphonate based on the prediction may prevent BMD loss. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(4):184–192

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is associated with improved outcomes of conservative treatment. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a novel screening programme that included both the primary risk factors of breech presentation and family history, and the secondary risk factors of oligohydramnios and foot deformities. Methods. A five-year prospective registry study investigating every live birth in the study’s catchment area (n = 27,731), all of whom underwent screening for risk factors and examination at the newborn and six- to eight-week neonatal examination and review. DDH was diagnosed using ultrasonography and the Graf classification system, defined as grade IIb or above or rapidly regressing IIa disease (≥4. o. at four weeks follow-up). Multivariate odds ratios were calculated to establish significant association, and risk differences were calculated to provide quantifiable risk increase with DDH, positive predictive value was used as a measure of predictive efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of using these risk factors to predict DDH was evaluated using NHS tariffs (January 2021). Results. The prevalence of DDH that required treatment within our population was 5/1,000 live births. The rate of missed presentation of DDH was 0.43/1000 live births. Breech position, family history, oligohydramnios, and foot deformities demonstrated significant association with DDH (p < 0.0001). The presence of breech presentation increased the risk of DDH by 1.69% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93% to 2.45%), family history by 3.57% (95% CI 2.06% to 5.09%), foot deformities by 8.95% (95% CI 4.81% to 13.1%), and oligohydramnios nby 11.6% (95 % CI 3.0% to 19.0%). Primary risk factors family history and breech presentation demonstrated an estimated cost-per-case detection of £6,276 and £11,409, respectively. Oligohydramnios and foot deformities demonstrated a cost-per-case detected less than the cost of primary risk factors of £2,260 and £2,670, respectively. Conclusion. The inclusion of secondary risk factors within a national screening programme was clinically successful as they were more cost and resource-efficient predictors of DDH than primary risk factors, suggesting they should be considered in the national guidance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):234–240

Aims. The Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) classification has been developed to predict individual variations in inherent knee alignment. The impact of preoperative and postoperative CPAK classification phenotype on the postoperative clinical outcomes of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remains elusive. This study aimed to examine the effect of postoperative CPAK classification phenotypes (I to IX), and their pre- to postoperative changes on patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Methods. A questionnaire was administered to 340 patients (422 knees) who underwent primary TKA for osteoarthritis (OA) between September 2013 and June 2019. A total of 231 patients (284 knees) responded. The ­Knee Society Score 2011 (KSS 2011), Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-12 (KOOS-12), and Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12) were used to assess clinical outcomes. Using preoperative and postoperative anteroposterior full-leg radiographs, the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) and joint line obliquity (JLO) were calculated and classified based on the CPAK classification. To investigate the impact on PROMs, multivariable regression analyses using stepwise selection were conducted, considering factors such as age at surgery, time since surgery, BMI, sex, implant use, postoperative aHKA classification, JLO classification, and changes in aHKA and JLO classifications from preoperative to postoperative. Results. The preoperative and postoperative CPAK classifications were predominantly phenotype I (155 knees; 55%) and phenotype V (73 knees; 26%), respectively. The change in the preoperative to postoperative aHKA classification was a significant negative predictive factor for KOOS-12 and FJS-12, while postoperative apex proximal JLO was a significant negative predictive factor for KSS 2011 and KOOS-12. Conclusion. In primary TKA for OA, preoperative and postoperative CPAK phenotypes were associated with PROMs. Alteration in varus/valgus alignment from preoperative to postoperative was recognized as a negative predictive factor for both KOOS-12 and FJS-12. Moreover, the postoperative apex proximal JLO was identified as a negative factor for KSS 2011 and KOOS-12. Determining the target alignment for each preoperative phenotype with reproducibility could improve PROMs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1059–1066

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217

Aims. No predictive model has been published to forecast operating time for total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aims of this study were to design and validate a predictive model to estimate operating time for robotic-assisted TKA based on demographic data, and evaluate the added predictive power of CT scan-based predictors and their impact on the accuracy of the predictive model. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted on 1,061 TKAs performed from January 2016 to December 2019 with an image-based robotic-assisted system. Demographic data included age, sex, height, and weight. The femoral and tibial mechanical axis and the osteophyte volume were calculated from CT scans. These inputs were used to develop a predictive model aimed to predict operating time based on demographic data only, and demographic and 3D patient anatomy data. Results. The key factors for predicting operating time were the surgeon and patient weight, followed by 12 anatomical parameters derived from CT scans. The predictive model based only on demographic data showed that 90% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time, with 73% within ten minutes. The predictive model including demographic data and CT scans showed that 94% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time and 88% within ten minutes. Conclusion. The primary factors for predicting robotic-assisted TKA operating time were surgeon, patient weight, and osteophyte volume. This study demonstrates that incorporating 3D patient-specific data can improve operating time predictions models, which may lead to improved operating room planning and efficiency. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):383–389

Aims. Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before. Methods. Our study included 226 nonoperatively treated humeral shaft fractures. We evaluated the interobserver reliability and intraobserver reproducibility of RUSHU scoring using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Additionally, we determined the optimal cut-off thresholds for predicting nonunion using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. Results. The RUSHU demonstrated good interobserver reliability with an ICC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.83) at six weeks and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.82) at 12 weeks. Intraobserver reproducibility was good or excellent for all analyses. Area under the curve in the ROC analysis was 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.88) at six weeks and 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.93) at 12 weeks, indicating excellent discrimination. The optimal cut-off values for predicting nonunion were ≤ eight points at six weeks and ≤ nine points at 12 weeks, providing the best specificity-sensitivity trade-off. Conclusion. The RUSHU proves to be a reliable and reproducible radiological scoring system that aids in identifying patients at risk of nonunion at both six and 12 weeks post-injury during non-surgical treatment of humeral shaft fractures. The statistically optimal cut-off values for predicting nonunion are ≤ eight at six weeks and ≤ nine points at 12 weeks post-injury

Aims. A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance. Methods. MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS). Results. Predictive performance of the best models per outcome ranged from 0.71 for HOOS-PS to 0.84 for EQ-VAS (HA sample). ML statistically significantly outperformed LR and pre-surgery PROM scores in two out of six cases. Conclusion. MCIDs can be predicted with reasonable performance. ML was able to outperform traditional methods, although only in a minority of cases. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):512–521

Aims. Radiological residual acetabular dysplasia (RAD) has been reported in up to 30% of children who had successful brace treatment of infant developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Predicting those who will resolve and those who may need corrective surgery is important to optimize follow-up protocols. In this study we have aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of RAD at two years and five years post-bracing. Methods. This was a single-centre, prospective longitudinal cohort study of infants with DDH managed using a published, standardized Pavlik harness protocol between January 2012 and December 2016. RAD was measured at two years’ mean follow-up using acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L) and acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), and at five years using AI-L, AI-S, centre-edge angle (CEA), and acetabular depth ratio (ADR). Each hip was classified based on published normative values for normal, borderline (1 to 2 standard deviations (SDs)), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on sex, age, and laterality. Results. Of 202 infants who completed the protocol, 181 (90%) had two and five years’ follow-up radiographs. At two years, in 304 initially pathological hips, the prevalence of RAD (dysplastic) was 10% and RAD (borderline) was 30%. At five years, RAD (dysplastic) decreased to 1% to 3% and RAD (borderline) decreased to < 1% to 2%. On logistic regression, no variables were predictive of RAD at two years. Only AI-L at two years was predictive of RAD at five years (p < 0.001). If both hips were normal at two years’ follow-up (n = 96), all remained normal at five years. In those with bilateral borderline hips at two years (n = 21), only two were borderline at five years, none were dysplastic. In those with either borderline-dysplastic or bilateral dysplasia at two years (n = 26), three (12%) were dysplastic at five years. Conclusion. The majority of patients with RAD at two years post-brace treatment, spontaneously resolved by five years. Therefore, children with normal radiographs at two years post-brace treatment can be discharged. Targeted follow-up for those with abnormal AI-L at two years will identify the few who may benefit from surgical correction at five years’ follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):744–750

Aims. Disorders of bone integrity carry a high global disease burden, frequently requiring intervention, but there is a paucity of methods capable of noninvasive real-time assessment. Here we show that miniaturized handheld near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) scans, operated via a smartphone, can assess structural human bone properties in under three seconds. Methods. A hand-held NIR spectrometer was used to scan bone samples from 20 patients and predict: bone volume fraction (BV/TV); and trabecular (Tb) and cortical (Ct) thickness (Th), porosity (Po), and spacing (Sp). Results. NIRS scans on both the inner (trabecular) surface or outer (cortical) surface accurately identified variations in bone collagen, water, mineral, and fat content, which then accurately predicted bone volume fraction (BV/TV, inner R. 2. = 0.91, outer R. 2. = 0.83), thickness (Tb.Th, inner R. 2. = 0.9, outer R. 2. = 0.79), and cortical thickness (Ct.Th, inner and outer both R. 2. = 0.90). NIRS scans also had 100% classification accuracy in grading the quartile of bone thickness and quality. Conclusion. We believe this is a fundamental step forward in creating an instrument capable of intraoperative real-time use. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):250–261

Aims. Iliopsoas impingement occurs in 4% to 30% of patients after undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a relatively high incidence, there are few attempts at modelling impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component, and no attempts at modelling this in a representative cohort of subjects. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel computational model for quantifying the impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component and validate its utility in a case-controlled investigation. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent THA surgery that included 23 symptomatic patients diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis, and 23 patients not diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis. All patients received postoperative CT imaging, postoperative standing radiography, and had minimum six months’ follow-up. 3D models of each patient’s prosthetic and bony anatomy were generated, landmarked, and simulated in a novel iliopsoas impingement detection model in supine and standing pelvic positions. Logistic regression models were implemented to determine if the probability of pain could be significantly predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the model’s sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). Results. Highly significant differences between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts were observed for iliopsoas impingement. Logistic regression models determined that the impingement values significantly predicted the probability of groin pain. The simulation had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 100%, and an AUC of 0.86. Conclusion. We developed a computational model that can quantify iliopsoas impingement and verified its accuracy in a case-controlled investigation. This tool has the potential to be used preoperatively, to guide decisions about optimal cup placement, and postoperatively, to assist in the diagnosis of iliopsoas tendonitis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(1):3–12

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. To investigate the optimal thresholds and diagnostic efficacy of commonly used serological and synovial fluid detection indexes for diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in patients who have rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. The data from 348 patients who had RA or osteoarthritis (OA) and had previously undergone a total knee (TKA) and/or a total hip arthroplasty (THA) (including RA-PJI: 60 cases, RA-non-PJI: 80 cases; OA-PJI: 104 cases, OA-non-PJI: 104 cases) were retrospectively analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal thresholds of the CRP, ESR, synovial fluid white blood cell count (WBC), and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%) for diagnosing RA-PJI and OA-PJI. The diagnostic efficacy was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve (AUC) of each index and applying the results of the combined index diagnostic test. Results. For PJI prediction, the results of serological and synovial fluid indexes were different between the RA-PJI and OA-PJI groups. The optimal cutoff value of CRP for diagnosing RA-PJI was 12.5 mg/l, ESR was 39 mm/hour, synovial fluid WBC was 3,654/μl, and PMN% was 65.9%; and those of OA-PJI were 8.2 mg/l, 31 mm/hour, 2,673/μl, and 62.0%, respectively. In the RA-PJI group, the specificity (94.4%), positive predictive value (97.1%), and AUC (0.916) of synovial fluid WBC were higher than those of the other indexes. The optimal cutoff values of synovial fluid WBC and PMN% for diagnosing RA-PJI after THA were significantly higher than those of TKA. The specificity and positive predictive value of the combined index were 100%. Conclusion. Serum inflammatory and synovial fluid indexes can be used for diagnosing RA-PJI, for which synovial fluid WBC is the best detection index. Combining multiple detection indexes can provide a reference basis for the early and accurate diagnosis of RA-PJI. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):559–570

Aims. The Cartiva synthetic cartilage implant (SCI) entered mainstream use in the management of first metatarsophalangeal joint (MTPJ) arthritis following the positive results of large trials in 2016. Limited information is available on the longer-term outcomes of this implant within the literature, particularly when independent from the originator. This single-centre cohort study investigates the efficacy of the Cartiva SCI at up to five years. Methods. First MTPJ arthritis was radiologically graded according to the Hattrup and Johnson (HJ) classification. Preoperative and sequential postoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were evaluated using the Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire (MOXFQ), and the activities of daily living (ADL) sub-section of the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM). Results. Patients were followed up for a mean of 66 months (SD 7.1). Of an initial 66 cases, 16 did not return PROM questionnaires. A total of six failures were noted, with survival of 82%. Overall, significant improvement in both objective scores (MOXFQ and FAAM ADL) was maintained versus preoperatively: 18.2 versus 58.0 (p > 0.001) and 86.2 versus 41.1 (p > 0.001), respectively. The improvement was noted to be less pronounced in males. Subjective scores had deteriorated since early follow-up, with an interval decrease in patient satisfaction from 89% to 68%. Furthermore, a subset of cases demonstrated clinically important interval deterioration in objective scores. However, no specific patient factors were found to be associated with outcomes following analysis. Conclusion. This study represents the longest-term independent follow-up in the literature. It shows reassuring mid-term efficacy of the Cartiva SCI with better-than-expected survival. However, deterioration in scores for a subset of patients and lower satisfaction may predict ongoing failure in this group of patients. Additionally, males were noted to have a lower degree of improvement in scores than females. As such, ongoing observation of the SCI to assess durability and survivability, and identify predictive factors, is key to improving patient selection. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(9):799–805

Aims. This study aimed to explore the diagnostic value of synovial fluid neutrophil extracellular traps (SF-NETs) in periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) diagnosis, and compare it with that of microbial culture, serum ESR and CRP, synovial white blood cell (WBC) count, and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%). Methods. In a single health centre, patients with suspected PJI were enrolled from January 2013 to December 2021. The inclusion criteria were: 1) patients who were suspected to have PJI; 2) patients with complete medical records; and 3) patients from whom sufficient synovial fluid was obtained for microbial culture and NET test. Patients who received revision surgeries due to aseptic failure (AF) were selected as controls. Synovial fluid was collected for microbial culture and SF-WBC, SF-PNM%, and SF-NET detection. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of synovial NET, WBC, PMN%, and area under the curve (AUC) were obtained; the diagnostic efficacies of these diagnostic indexes were calculated and compared. Results. The levels of SF-NETs in the PJI group were significantly higher than those of the AF group. The AUC of SF-NET was 0.971 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.903 to 0.996), the sensitivity was 93.48% (95% CI 82.10% to 98.63%), the specificity was 96.43% (95% CI 81.65% to 99.91%), the accuracy was 94.60% (95% CI 86.73% to 98.50%), the positive predictive value was 97.73%, and the negative predictive value was 90%. Further analysis showed that SF-NET could improve the diagnosis of culture-negative PJI, patients with PJI who received antibiotic treatment preoperatively, and fungal PJI. Conclusion. SF-NET is a novel and ideal synovial fluid biomarker for PJI diagnosis, which could improve PJI diagnosis greatly. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):113–120

Aims. Treatment of high-grade limb bone sarcoma that invades a joint requires en bloc extra-articular excision. MRI can demonstrate joint invasion but is frequently inconclusive, and its predictive value is unknown. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of direct and indirect radiological signs of intra-articular tumour extension and the performance characteristics of MRI findings of intra-articular tumour extension. Methods. We performed a retrospective case-control study of patients who underwent extra-articular excision for sarcoma of the knee, hip, or shoulder from 1 June 2000 to 1 November 2020. Radiologists blinded to the pathology results evaluated preoperative MRI for three direct signs of joint invasion (capsular disruption, cortical breach, cartilage invasion) and indirect signs (e.g. joint effusion, synovial thickening). The discriminatory ability of MRI to detect intra-articular tumour extension was determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results. Overall, 49 patients underwent extra-articular excision. The area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 0.65 to 0.76 for direct signs of joint invasion, and was 0.83 for all three combined. In all, 26 patients had only one to two direct signs of invasion, representing an equivocal result. In these patients, the AUC was 0.63 for joint effusion and 0.85 for synovial thickening. When direct signs and synovial thickening were combined, the AUC was 0.89. Conclusion. MRI provides excellent discrimination for determining intra-articular tumour extension when multiple direct signs of invasion are present. When MRI results are equivocal, assessment of synovial thickening increases MRI’s discriminatory ability to predict intra-articular joint extension. These results should be interpreted in the context of the study’s limitations. The inclusion of only extra-articular excisions enriched the sample for true positive cases. Direct signs likely varied with tumour histology and location. A larger, prospective study of periarticular bone sarcomas with spatial correlation of histological and radiological findings is needed to validate these results before their adoption in clinical practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):944–952

Aims. To systematically evaluate whether bracing can effectively achieve curve regression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to identify any predictors of curve regression after bracing. Methods. Two independent reviewers performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Ovid, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library to obtain all published information about the effectiveness of bracing in achieving curve regression in AIS patients. Search terms included “brace treatment” or “bracing,” “idiopathic scoliosis,” and “curve regression” or “curve reduction.” Inclusion criteria were studies recruiting patients with AIS undergoing brace treatment and one of the study outcomes must be curve regression or reduction, defined as > 5° reduction in coronal Cobb angle of a major curve upon bracing completion. Exclusion criteria were studies including non-AIS patients, studies not reporting p-value or confidence interval, animal studies, case reports, case series, and systematic reviews. The GRADE approach to assessing quality of evidence was used to evaluate each publication. Results. After abstract and full-text screening, 205 out of 216 articles were excluded. The 11 included studies all reported occurrence of curve regression among AIS patients who were braced. Regression rate ranged from 16.7% to 100%. We found evidence that bracing is effective in achieving curve regression among compliant AIS patients eligible for bracing, i.e. curves of 25° to 40°. A similar effect was also found in patients with major curve sizes ranging from 40° to 60° when combined with scoliosis-specific exercises. There was also evidence showing that a low apical vertebral body height ratio, in-brace correction, smaller pre-brace Cobb angle, and daily pattern of brace-wear compliance predict curve regression after bracing. Conclusion. Bracing provides a corrective effect on scoliotic curves of AIS patients to achieve curve regression, given there is high compliance rate and the incorporation of exercises. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):286–292

Aims. This study aimed to assess the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) associated with combined intravenous (IV) and topical antibiotic therapy in patients undergoing treatment for periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) following total knee arthroplasty (TKA), utilizing the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria for classification. Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 162 knees (162 patients) that received treatment for PJI post-TKA with combined IV and topical antibiotic infusions at a single academic hospital from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2022. The incidence of AKI was evaluated using the KDIGO criteria, focussing on the identification of significant predictors and the temporal pattern of AKI development. Results. AKI was identified in 9.26% (15/162) of the cohort, predominantly presenting as stage 1 AKI, which was transient in nature and resolved prior to discharge. The analysis highlighted moderate anaemia and lower baseline serum creatinine levels as significant predictors for the development of AKI. Notably, the study found no instances of severe complications such as wound dehiscence, skin erosion, or the need for haemodialysis following treatment. Conclusion. The findings suggest that the combined use of IV and topical antibiotic therapy in the management of PJIs post-TKA is associated with a low incidence of primarily transient stage 1 AKI. This indicates a potentially favourable renal safety profile, advocating for further research to confirm these outcomes and potentially influence treatment protocols in PJI management. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(10):525–534

Aims. The presence of facet tropism has been correlated with an elevated susceptibility to lumbar disc pathology. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of facet tropism on chronic lumbosacral discogenic pain through the analysis of clinical data and finite element modelling (FEM). Methods. Retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data, with a specific focus on the spinal units displaying facet tropism, utilizing FEM analysis for motion simulation. We studied 318 intervertebral levels in 156 patients who had undergone provocation discography. Significant predictors of clinical findings were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Loading conditions were applied in FEM simulations to mimic biomechanical effects on intervertebral discs, focusing on maximal displacement and intradiscal pressures, gauged through alterations in disc morphology and physical stress. Results. A total of 144 discs were categorized as ‘positive’ and 174 discs as ‘negative’ by the results of provocation discography. The presence of defined facet tropism (OR 3.451, 95% CI 1.944 to 6.126) and higher Adams classification (OR 2.172, 95% CI 1.523 to 3.097) were important predictive parameters for discography-‘positive’ discs. FEM simulations showcased uneven stress distribution and significant disc displacement in tropism-affected discs, where loading exacerbated stress on facets with greater angles. During varied positions, notably increased stress and displacement were observed in discs with tropism compared to those with normal facet structure. Conclusion. Our findings indicate that facet tropism can contribute to disc herniation and changes in intradiscal pressure, potentially exacerbating disc degeneration due to altered force distribution and increased mechanical stress. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):452–461

Aims. A novel enhanced cement fixation (EF) tibial implant with deeper cement pockets and a more roughened bonding surface was released to market for an existing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) system.This randomized controlled trial assessed fixation of the both the EF (ATTUNE S+) and standard (Std; ATTUNE S) using radiostereometric analysis. Methods. Overall, 50 subjects were randomized (21 EF-TKA and 23 Std-TKA in the final analysis), and had follow-up visits at six weeks, and six, 12, and 24 months to assess migration of the tibial component. Low viscosity bone cement with tobramycin was used in a standardized fashion for all subjects. Patient-reported outcome measure data was captured at preoperative and all postoperative visits. Results. The patient cohort mean age was 66 years (SD seven years), 59% were female, and the mean BMI was 32 kg/m. 2. (SD 6 kg/m. 2. ). Mean two-year subsidence of the EF-TKA was 0.056 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.025 to 0.086) versus 0.006 mm (95% CI -0.029 to 0.040) for the Std-TKA, and the two-year maximum total point motion (MTPM) was 0.285 mm (95% upper confidence limit (UCL) ≤ 0.363) versus 0.346 mm (95% UCL ≤ 0.432), respectively, for a mean difference of -0.061 mm (95% CI -0.196 to 0.074). Inducible displacement also did not differ between groups. The MTPMs between 12 and 24 months for each group was below the published threshold of 0.2 mm for predicting early aseptic loosening (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. Both the enhanced fixation and the standard tibial implant design showed fixation with a predicted low risk of long-term aseptic loosening. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):20–27

Aims. The association of auraptene (AUR), a 7-geranyloxycoumarin, on osteoporosis and its potential pathway was predicted by network pharmacology and confirmed in experimental osteoporotic mice. Methods. The network of AUR was constructed and a potential pathway predicted by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) terms enrichment. Female ovariectomized (OVX) Institute of Cancer Research mice were intraperitoneally injected with 0.01, 0.1, and 1 mM AUR for four weeks. The bone mineral density (BMD) level was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The bone microstructure was determined by histomorphological changes in the femora. In addition, biochemical analysis of the serum and assessment of the messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of osteoclastic markers were performed. Results. In total, 65.93% of the genes of the AUR network matched with osteoporosis-related genes. Osteoclast differentiation was predicted to be a potential pathway of AUR in osteoporosis. Based on the network pharmacology, the BMD and bone mineral content levels were significantly (p < 0.05) increased in the whole body, femur, tibia, and lumbar spine by AUR. AUR normalized the bone microstructure and the serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP), osteocalcin, and calcium in comparison with the OVX group. In addition, AUR treatment reduced TRAP-positive osteoclasts and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL). +. nuclear factor of activated T cells 1 (NFATc1). +. expression in the femoral body. Moreover, the expressions of initiators for osteoclastic resorption and bone matrix degradation were significantly (p < 0.05) regulated by AUR in the lumbar spine of the osteoporotic mice. Conclusion. AUR ameliorated bone loss by downregulating the RANKL/NFATc1 pathway, resulting in improvement of osteoporosis. In conclusion, AUR might be an ameliorative cure that alleviates bone loss in osteoporosis via inhibition of osteoclastic activity. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(5):304–316

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to determine the ten-year outcome following surgical treatment for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). We assessed whether the evolution of practice from open to arthroscopic techniques influenced outcomes and tested whether any patient, radiological, or surgical factors were associated with outcome. Methods. Prospectively collected data of a consecutive single-surgeon cohort, operated for FAI between January 2005 and January 2015, were retrospectively studied. The cohort comprised 393 hips (365 patients; 71% male (n = 278)), with a mean age of 34.5 years (SD 10.0). Over the study period, techniques evolved from open surgical dislocation (n = 94) to a combined arthroscopy-Hueter technique (HA + Hueter; n = 61) to a pure arthroscopic technique (HA; n = 238). Outcome measures of interest included modes of failures, complications, reoperation, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Demographic, radiological, and surgical factors were tested for possible association with outcome. Results. At a mean follow-up of 7.5 years (SD 2.5), there were 43 failures in 38 hips (9.7%), with 35 hips (8.9%) having one failure mode, one hip (0.25%) having two failure modes, and two hips (0.5%) having three failure modes. The five- and ten-year hip joint preservation rates were 94.1% (SD 1.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 91.8 to 96.4) and 90.4% (SD 1.7%; 95% CI 87.1 to 93.7), respectively. Inferior survivorship was detected in the surgical dislocation group. Age at surgery, Tönnis grade, cartilage damage, and absence of rim-trimming were associated with improved preservation rates. Only Tönnis grade was an independent predictor of hip preservation. All PROMs improved postoperatively. Factors associated with improvement in PROMs included higher lateral centre-edge and α angles, and lower retroversion index and BMI. Conclusion. FAI surgery provides lasting improvement in function and a joint preservation rate of 90.4% at ten years. The evolution of practice was not associated with inferior outcome. Since degree of arthritis is the primary predictor of outcome, improved awareness and screening may lead to prompt intervention and better outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):804–814

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the meaningful values of the EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) and EuroQol visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) in patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty (KA). Methods. This is a retrospective study of patients undergoing primary KA for osteoarthritis in a university teaching hospital (Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh) (1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019). Pre- and postoperative (one-year) data were prospectively collected for 3,181 patients (median age 69.9 years (interquartile range (IQR) 64.2 to 76.1); females, n = 1,745 (54.9%); median BMI 30.1 kg/m. 2. (IQR 26.6 to 34.2)). The reliability of the EQ-5D-3L was measured using Cronbach’s alpha. Responsiveness was determined by calculating the anchor-based minimal clinically important difference (MCID), the minimal important change (MIC) (cohort and individual), the patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) predictive of satisfaction, and the minimal detectable change at 90% confidence intervals (MDC-90). Results. The EQ-5D-3L demonstrated good internal consistency with an overall Cronbach alpha of 0.75 (preoperative) and 0.88 (postoperative), respectively. The MCID for the Index score was 0.085 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.042 to 0.127) and EQ-VAS was 6.41 (95% CI 3.497 to 9.323). The MIC. COHORT. was 0.289 for the EQ-5D and 5.27 for the EQ-VAS. However, the MIC. INDIVIDUAL. for both the EQ-5D-3L Index (0.105) and EQ-VAS (-1) demonstrated poor-to-acceptable reliability. The MDC-90 was 0.023 for the EQ-5D-3L Index and 1.0 for the EQ-VAS. The PASS for the postoperative EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores predictive of patient satisfaction were 0.708 and 77.0, respectively. Conclusion. The meaningful values of the EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores can be used to measure clinically relevant changes in health-related quality of life in patients undergoing primary KA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(9):619–628

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly growing across many domains, of which the medical field is no exception. AI is an umbrella term defining the practical application of algorithms to generate useful output, without the need of human cognition. Owing to the expanding volume of patient information collected, known as ‘big data’, AI is showing promise as a useful tool in healthcare research and across all aspects of patient care pathways. Practical applications in orthopaedic surgery include: diagnostics, such as fracture recognition and tumour detection; predictive models of clinical and patient-reported outcome measures, such as calculating mortality rates and length of hospital stay; and real-time rehabilitation monitoring and surgical training. However, clinicians should remain cognizant of AI’s limitations, as the development of robust reporting and validation frameworks is of paramount importance to prevent avoidable errors and biases. The aim of this review article is to provide a comprehensive understanding of AI and its subfields, as well as to delineate its existing clinical applications in trauma and orthopaedic surgery. Furthermore, this narrative review expands upon the limitations of AI and future direction. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(7):447–454

Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407

Aims. The diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) can be challenging as the symptoms are similar to other conditions, and the markers used for diagnosis have limited sensitivity and specificity. Recent research has suggested using blood cell ratios, such as platelet-to-volume ratio (PVR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), to improve diagnostic accuracy. The aim of the study was to further validate the effectiveness of PVR and PLR in diagnosing PJI. Methods. A retrospective review was conducted to assess the accuracy of different marker combinations for diagnosing chronic PJI. A total of 573 patients were included in the study, of which 124 knees and 122 hips had a diagnosis of chronic PJI. Complete blood count and synovial fluid analysis were collected. Recently published blood cell ratio cut-off points were applied to receiver operating characteristic curves for all markers and combinations. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results. The results of the analysis showed that the combination of ESR, CRP, synovial white blood cell count (Syn. WBC), and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%) with PVR had the highest AUC of 0.99 for knees, with sensitivity of 97.73% and specificity of 100%. Similarly, for hips, this combination had an AUC of 0.98, sensitivity of 96.15%, and specificity of 100.00%. Conclusion. This study supports the use of PVR calculated from readily available complete blood counts, combined with established markers, to improve the accuracy in diagnosing chronic PJI in both total hip and knee arthroplasties. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):881–888

Aims. Better prediction of outcome after total hip arthroplasty (THA) is warranted. Systemic inflammation and central neuroinflammation are possibly involved in progression of osteoarthritis and pain. We explored whether inflammatory biomarkers in blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were associated with clinical outcome, and baseline pain or disability, 12 months after THA. Methods. A total of 50 patients from the Danish Pain Research Biobank (DANPAIN-Biobank) between January and June 2018 were included. Postoperative outcome was assessed as change in Oxford Hip Score (OHS) from baseline to 12 months after THA, pain was assessed on a numerical rating scale, and disability using the Pain Disability Index. Multiple regression models for each clinical outcome were included for biomarkers in blood and CSF, respectively, including age, sex, BMI, and Kellgren-Lawrence score. Results. Change in OHS was associated with blood concentrations of tumour necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6R), glycoprotein 130 (gp130), and IL-1β (R. 2. = 0.28, p = 0.006), but not with CSF biomarkers. Baseline pain was associated with blood concentrations of lymphotoxin alpha (LTα), TNFR1, TNFR2, and IL-6R (R. 2. = 0.37, p < 0.001) and CSF concentrations of TNFR1, TNFR2, IL-6, IL-6R, and IL-1Ra (R. 2. = 0.40, p = 0.001). Baseline disability was associated with blood concentrations of TNF, LTα, IL-8, IL-6, and IL-1α (R. 2. = 0.53, p < 0.001) and CSF concentrations of gp130, TNF, and IL-1β (R. 2. = 0.26, p = 0.002). Thus, preoperative systemic low-grade inflammation predicted 12-month postoperative outcome after THA, and was associated with preoperative pain and disability. Conclusion. This study highlights the importance of systemic inflammation in osteoarthritis, and presents a possible path for better patient selection for THA in the future. Preoperative central neuroinflammation was associated with preoperative pain and disability, but not change in OHS after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(12):741–749

Aims. This study aimed to establish the optimal fixation methods for calcaneal tuberosity avulsion fractures with different fragment thicknesses in a porcine model. Methods. A total of 36 porcine calcanea were sawed to create simple avulsion fractures with three different fragment thicknesses (5, 10, and 15 mm). They were randomly fixed with either two suture anchors or one headless screw. Load-to-failure and cyclic loading tension tests were performed for the biomechanical analysis. Results. This biomechanical study predicts that headless screw fixation is a better option if fragment thickness is over 15 mm in terms of the comparable peak failure load to suture anchor fixation (headless screw: 432.55 N (SD 62.25); suture anchor: 446.58 N (SD 84.97)), and less fracture fragment displacement after cyclic loading (headless screw: 3.94 N (SD 1.76); suture anchor: 8.68 N (SD 1.84)). Given that the fragment thickness is less than 10 mm, suture anchor fixation is a safer option. Conclusion. Fracture fragment thickness helps in making the decision of either using headless screw or suture anchor fixation in treating calcaneal tuberosity avulsion fracture, based on the regression models of our study. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(8):504–511

Aims. Patient dissatisfaction following primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with manual jig-based instruments has been reported to be as high as 30%. Robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty (RA-TKA) has been increasingly used in an effort to improve patient outcomes, however there is a paucity of literature examining patient satisfaction after RA-TKA. This study aims to identify the incidence of patients who were not satisfied following RA-TKA and to determine factors associated with higher levels of dissatisfaction. Methods. This was a retrospective review of 674 patients who underwent primary TKA between October 2016 and September 2020 with a minimum two-year follow-up. A five-point Likert satisfaction score was used to place patients into two groups: Group A were those who were very dissatisfied, dissatisfied, or neutral (Likert score 1 to 3) and Group B were those who were satisfied or very satisfied (Likert score 4 to 5). Patient demographic data, as well as preoperative and postoperative patient-reported outcome measures, were compared between groups. Results. Overall, 45 patients (6.7%) were in Group A and 629 (93.3%) were in Group B. Group A (vs Group B) had a higher proportion of male sex (p = 0.008), preoperative chronic opioid use (p < 0.001), preoperative psychotropic medication use (p = 0.01), prior anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction (p < 0.001), and preoperative symptomatic lumbar spine disease (p = 0.004). Group A was also younger (p = 0.023). Multivariate analysis revealed preoperative opioid use (p = 0.012), prior ACL reconstruction (p = 0.038), male sex (p = 0.006), and preoperative psychotropic medication use (p = 0.001) as independent predictive factors of patient dissatisfaction. Conclusion. The use of RA-TKA demonstrated a high rate of patient satisfaction (629 of 674, 93.3%). Demographics for patients not satisfied following RA-TKA included: male sex, chronic opioid use, chronic psychotropic medication use, and prior ACL reconstruction. Patients in these groups should be identified preoperatively and educated on realistic expectations given their comorbid conditions. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(9):758–765

Aims. Accurate skeletal age and final adult height prediction methods in paediatric orthopaedics are crucial for determining optimal timing of growth-guiding interventions and minimizing complications in treatments of various conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of final adult height predictions using the central peak height (CPH) method with long leg X-rays and four different multiplier tables. Methods. This study included 31 patients who underwent temporary hemiepiphysiodesis for varus or valgus deformity of the leg between 2014 and 2020. The skeletal age at surgical intervention was evaluated using the CPH method with long leg radiographs. The true final adult height (FH. TRUE. ) was determined when the growth plates were closed. The final height prediction accuracy of four different multiplier tables (1. Bayley and Pinneau; 2. Paley et al; 3. Sanders – Greulich and Pyle (SGP); and 4. Sanders – peak height velocity (PHV)) was then compared using either skeletal age or chronological age. Results. All final adult height predictions overestimated the FH. TRUE. , with the SGP multiplier table having the lowest overestimation and lowest absolute deviation when using both chronological age and skeletal age. There were no significant differences in final height prediction accuracy between using skeletal age and chronological age with PHV (p = 0.652) or SGP multiplier tables (p = 0.969). Adult height predictions with chronological age and SGP (r = 0.769; p ≤ 0.001), as well as chronological age and PHV (r = 0.822; p ≤ 0.001), showed higher correlations with FH. TRUE. than predictions with skeletal age and SGP (r = 0.657; p ≤ 0.001) or skeletal age and PHV (r = 0.707; p ≤ 0.001). Conclusion. There was no significant improvement in adult height prediction accuracy when using the CPH method compared to chronological age alone. The study concludes that there is no advantage in routinely using the CPH method for skeletal age determination over the simple use of chronological age. The findings highlight the need for more accurate methods to predict final adult height in contemporary patient populations. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(10):750–757

Aims. The modified Radiological Union Scale for Tibia (mRUST) fractures score was developed in order to assess progress to union and define a numerical assessment of fracture healing of metadiaphyseal fractures. This score has been shown to be valuable in predicting radiological union; however, there is no information on the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of this index for various cut-off scores. The aim of this study is to evaluate sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut-off points of the mRUST score for the diagnosis of metadiaphyseal fractures healing. Methods. A cohort of 146 distal femur fractures were retrospectively identified at our institution. After excluding AO/OTA type B fractures, nonunions, follow-up less than 12 weeks, and patients aged less than 16 years, 104 sets of radiographs were included for analysis. Anteroposterior and lateral femur radiographs at six weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and final follow-up were separately scored by three surgeons using the mRUST score. The sensitivity and specificity of mean mRUST score were calculated using clinical and further radiological findings as a gold standard for ultimate fracture healing. A receiver operating characteristic curve was also performed to determine the cut-off points at each time point. Results. The mean mRUST score of ten at 24 weeks revealed a 91.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 92.6% accuracy of predicting ultimate fracture healing. A cut-off point of 13 points revealed 41.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 46.9% accuracy at the same time point. Conclusion. The mRUST score of ten points at 24 weeks can be used as a viable screening method with the highest sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for healing of metadiaphyseal femur fractures. However, the cut-off point of 13 increases the specificity to 100%, but decreases sensitivity. Furthermore, the mRUST score should not be used at six weeks, as results show an inability to accurately predict eventual fracture healing at this time point. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):796–805

Aims. It is unclear whether acute plate fixation facilitates earlier return of normal shoulder function following a displaced mid-shaft clavicular fracture compared with nonoperative management when union occurs. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether acute plate fixation was associated with a greater return of normal shoulder function when compared with nonoperative management in patients who unite their fractures. The secondary aim was to investigate whether there were identifiable predictors associated with return of normal shoulder function in patients who achieve union with nonoperative management. Methods. Patient data from a randomized controlled trial were used to compare acute plate fixation with nonoperative management of united fractures. Return of shoulder function was based on the age- and sex-matched Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) scores for the cohort. Independent predictors of an early recovery of normal shoulder function were investigated using a separate prospective series of consecutive nonoperative displaced mid-shaft clavicular fractures recruited over a two-year period (aged ≥ 16 years). Patient demographics and functional recovery were assessed over the six months post-injury using a standardized protocol. Results. Data from the randomized controlled trial consisted of 86 patients who underwent operative fixation compared with 76 patients that united with nonoperative treatment. The recovery of normal shoulder function, as defined by a DASH score within the predicted 95% confidence interval for each respective patient, was similar between each group at six weeks (operative 26.7% vs nonoperative 25.0%, p = 0.800), three months (52.3% vs 44.2%, p = 0.768), and six months post-injury (86.0% vs 90.8%, p = 0.349). The mean DASH score and return to work were also comparable at each timepoint. In the prospective cohort, 86.5% (n = 173/200) achieved union by six months post-injury (follow-up rate 88.5%, n = 200/226). Regression analysis found that no specific patient, injury, or fracture predictor was associated with an early return of function at six or 12 weeks. Conclusion. Return of normal shoulder function was comparable between acute plate fixation and nonoperative management when union was achieved. One in two patients will have recovery of normal shoulder function at three months, increasing to nine out of ten patients at six months following injury when union occurs, irrespective of initial treatment. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):522–529

Aims. Young adults undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) largely have different indications for surgery, preoperative function, and postoperative goals compared to a standard patient group. The aim of our study was to describe young adult THA preoperative function and quality of life, and to assess postoperative satisfaction and compare this with functional outcome measures. Methods. A retrospective cohort analysis of young adults (aged < 50 years) undergoing THA between May 2018 and May 2023 in a single tertiary centre was undertaken. Median follow-up was 31 months (12 to 61). Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and focus group-designed questionnaires were distributed. Searches identified 244 cases in 225 patients. Those aged aged under 30 years represented 22.7% of the cohort. Developmental dysplasia of the hip (50; 45.5%) and Perthes’ disease (15; 13.6%) were the commonest indications for THA. Results. Preoperatively, of 110 patients, 19 (17.2%) were unable to work before THA, 57 (52%) required opioid analgesia, 51 (46.4%) were reliant upon walking aids, and 70 (63.6%) had sexual activity limited by their pathology. One patient required revision due to instability. Mean OHS was 39 (9 to 48). There was a significant difference between the OHS of cases where THA met expectation, compared with the OHS when it did not (satisfied: 86 (78.2%), OHS: 41.2 (36.1%) vs non-satisfied: 24 (21%), OHS: 31.6; p ≤ 0.001). Only one of the 83 patients (75.5%) who returned to premorbid levels of activity did so after 12 months. Conclusion. Satisfaction rates of THA in young adults is high, albeit lower than commonly quoted figures. Young adults awaiting THA have poor function with high requirements for mobility aids, analgesia, and difficulties in working and undertaking leisure activities. The OHS provided a useful insight into patient function and was predictive of satisfaction rates, although it did not address the specific demands of young adults undertaking THA. Function at one year postoperatively is a good indication of overall outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):304–311

Aims. The aims were to assess whether joint-specific outcome after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) was influenced by implant design over a 12-year follow-up period, and whether patient-related factors were associated with loss to follow-up and mortality risk. Methods. Long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial was undertaken. A total of 212 patients were allocated a Triathlon or a Kinemax TKA. Patients were assessed preoperatively, and one, three, eight, and 12 years postoperatively using the Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Reasons for patient lost to follow-up, mortality, and revision were recorded. Results. A total of 94 patients completed 12-year functional follow-up (62 females, mean age 66 years (43 to 82) at index surgery). There was a clinically significantly greater improvement in the OKS at one year (mean difference (MD) 3.0 (95% CI 0.4 to 5.7); p = 0.027) and three years (MD 4.7 (95% CI 1.9 to 7.5); p = 0.001) for the Triathlon group, but no differences were observed at eight (p = 0.331) or 12 years’ (p = 0.181) follow-up. When assessing the OKS in the patients surviving to 12 years, the Triathlon group had a clinically significantly greater improvement in the OKS (marginal mean 3.8 (95% CI 0.2 to 7.4); p = 0.040). Loss to functional follow-up (53%, n = 109/204) was independently associated with older age (p = 0.001). Patient mortality was the major reason (56.4%, n = 62/110) for loss to follow-up. Older age (p < 0.001) and worse preoperative OKS (p = 0.043) were independently associated with increased mortality risk. An age at time of surgery of ≥ 72 years was 75% sensitive and 74% specific for predicting mortality with an area under the curve of 78.1% (95% CI 70.9 to 85.3; p < 0.001). Conclusion. The Triathlon TKA was associated with clinically meaningful greater improvement in knee-specific outcome when compared to the Kinemax TKA. Loss to follow-up at 12 years was a limitation, and studies planning longer-term functional assessment could limit their cohort to patients aged under 72 years. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):911–919

Aims. Psychological status may be an important predictor of outcome after periacetabular osteotomy (PAO). The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of psychological distress on postoperative health-related quality of life, joint function, self-assessed pain, and sports ability in patients undergoing PAO. Methods. In all, 202 consecutive patients who underwent PAO for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) at our institution from 2015 to 2017 were included and followed up at 63 months (SD 10) postoperatively. Of these, 101 with complete data sets entered final analysis. Patients were assessed by questionnaire. Psychological status was measured by Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI-18), health-related quality of life was raised with 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36), hip functionality was measured by the short version 0f the International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-12), Subjective Hip Value (SHV), and Hip Disability and Outcome Score (HOS). Surgery satisfaction and pain were assessed. Dependent variables (endpoints) were postoperative quality of life (SF-36, HOS quality of life (QoL)), joint function (iHOT-12, SHV, HOS), patient satisfaction, and pain. Psychological distress was assessed by the Global Severity Index (GSI), somatization (BSI Soma), depression (BSI Depr), and anxiety (BSI Anx). Influence of psychological status was assessed by means of univariate and multiple multivariate regression analysis. Results. In multiple multivariate regression, postoperative GSI, BSI Soma, and BSI Depr had a negative effect on postoperative SF-36 (e -2.07, -3.05, and -2.67, respectively; p < 0.001), iHOT-12 (e -1.35 and -4.65, respectively; p < 0.001), SHV (e -1.20 and -2.71, respectively; p < 0.001), HOS QoL (e -2.09 and -4.79, respectively; p < 0.001), HOS Function (e -1.00 and -3.94, respectively; p < 0.001), and HOS Sport (e -1.44 and -5.29, respectively; p < 0.001), and had an effect on postoperative pain (e 0.13 and 0.37, respectively; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Psychological distress, depression, and somatization disorders affect health-related quality of life, perceived joint function, and sports ability. Pain perception is significantly increased by somatization. However, patient satisfaction with surgery is not affected. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(10):758–765

Aims. Degenerative cervical spondylosis (DCS) is a common musculoskeletal disease that encompasses a wide range of progressive degenerative changes and affects all components of the cervical spine. DCS imposes very large social and economic burdens. However, its genetic basis remains elusive. Methods. Predicted whole-blood and skeletal muscle gene expression and genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a DCS database were integrated, and functional summary-based imputation (FUSION) software was used on the integrated data. A transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) was conducted using FUSION software to assess the association between predicted gene expression and DCS risk. The TWAS-identified genes were verified via comparison with differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in DCS RNA expression profiles in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) (Accession Number: GSE153761). The Functional Mapping and Annotation (FUMA) tool for genome-wide association studies and Meta tools were used for gene functional enrichment and annotation analysis. Results. The TWAS detected 420 DCS genes with p < 0.05 in skeletal muscle, such as ribosomal protein S15A (RPS15A) (PTWAS = 0.001), and 110 genes in whole blood, such as selectin L (SELL) (PTWAS = 0.001). Comparison with the DCS RNA expression profile identified 12 common genes, including Apelin Receptor (APLNR) (PTWAS = 0.001, PDEG = 0.025). In total, 148 DCS-enriched Gene Ontology (GO) terms were identified, such as mast cell degranulation (GO:0043303); 15 DCS-enriched Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways were identified, such as the sphingolipid signalling pathway (ko04071). Nine terms, such as degradation of the extracellular matrix (R-HSA-1474228), were common to the TWAS enrichment results and the RNA expression profile. Conclusion. Our results identify putative susceptibility genes; these findings provide new ideas for exploration of the genetic mechanism of DCS development and new targets for preclinical intervention and clinical treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(1):80–90

Aims. To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. Methods. A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. Results. The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to ten years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Conclusion. Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):72–78

Aims. Successful cell therapy in hip osteonecrosis (ON) may help to avoid ON progression or total hip arthroplasty (THA), but the achieved bone regeneration is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate amount and location of bone regeneration obtained after surgical injection of expanded autologous mesenchymal stromal cells from the bone marrow (BM-hMSCs). Methods. A total of 20 patients with small and medium-size symptomatic stage II femoral head ON treated with 140 million BM-hMSCs through percutaneous forage in the EudraCT 2012-002010-39 clinical trial were retrospectively evaluated through preoperative and postoperative (three and 12 months) MRI. Then, 3D reconstruction of the original lesion and the observed postoperative residual damage after bone regeneration were analyzed and compared per group based on treatment efficacy. Results. The mean preoperative lesion volume was 18.7% (SD 10.2%) of the femoral head. This reduced to 11.6% (SD 7.5%) after three months (p = 0.015) and 3.7% (SD 3%) after one year (p < 0.001). Bone regeneration in healed cases represented a mean 81.2% (SD 13.8%) of the initial lesion volume at one year. Non-healed cases (n = 1 stage progression; n = 3 THAs) still showed bone regeneration but this did not effectively decrease the ON volume. A lesion size under mean 10% (SD 6%) of the femoral head at three months predicted no ON stage progression at one year. Regeneration in the lateral femoral head (C2 under Japanese Investigation Committee (JCI) classification) and in the central and posterior regions of the head was predominant in cases without ON progression. Conclusion. Bone regeneration was observed in osteonecrotic femoral heads three months after expanded autologous BM-hMSC injection, and the volume and location of regeneration indicated the success of the therapy. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(12):881–889

Aims. Developmental cervical spinal stenosis (DcSS) is a well-known predisposing factor for degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM) but there is a lack of consensus on its definition. This study aims to define DcSS based on MRI, and its multilevel characteristics, to assess the prevalence of DcSS in the general population, and to evaluate the presence of DcSS in the prediction of developing DCM. Methods. This cross-sectional study analyzed MRI spine morphological parameters at C3 to C7 (including anteroposterior (AP) diameter of spinal canal, spinal cord, and vertebral body) from DCM patients (n = 95) and individuals recruited from the general population (n = 2,019). Level-specific median AP spinal canal diameter from DCM patients was used to screen for stenotic levels in the population-based cohort. An individual with multilevel (≥ 3 vertebral levels) AP canal diameter smaller than the DCM median values was considered as having DcSS. The most optimal cut-off canal diameter per level for DcSS was determined by receiver operating characteristic analyses, and multivariable logistic regression was performed for the prediction of developing DCM that required surgery. Results. A total of 2,114 individuals aged 64.6 years (SD 11.9) who underwent surgery from March 2009 to December 2016 were studied. The most optimal cut-off canal diameters for DcSS are: C3 < 12.9 mm, C4 < 11.8 mm, C5 < 11.9 mm, C6 < 12.3 mm, and C7 < 13.3 mm. Overall, 13.0% (262 of 2,019) of the population-based cohort had multilevel DcSS. Multilevel DcSS (odds ratio (OR) 6.12 (95% CI 3.97 to 9.42); p < 0.001) and male sex (OR 4.06 (95% CI 2.55 to 6.45); p < 0.001) were predictors of developing DCM. Conclusion. This is the first MRI-based study for defining DcSS with multilevel canal narrowing. Level-specific cut-off canal diameters for DcSS can be used for early identification of individuals at risk of developing DCM. Individuals with DcSS at ≥ three levels and male sex are recommended for close monitoring or early intervention to avoid traumatic spinal cord injuries from stenosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1333–1341

Aims. The risk factors for abnormal spinopelvic mobility (SPM), defined as an anterior rotation of the spinopelvic tilt (∆SPT) ≥ 20° in a flexed-seated position, have been described. The implication of pelvic incidence (PI) is unclear, and the concept of lumbar lordosis (LL) based on anatomical limits may be erroneous. The distribution of LL, including a unusual shape in patients with a high lordosis, a low pelvic incidence, and an anteverted pelvis seems more relevant. Methods. The clinical data of 311 consecutive patients who underwent total hip arthroplasty was retrospectively analyzed. We analyzed the different types of lumbar shapes that can present in patients to identify their potential associations with abnormal pelvic mobility, and we analyzed the potential risk factors associated with a ∆SPT ≥ 20° in the overall population. Results. ΔSPT ≥ 20° rates were 28.3%, 11.8%, and 14.3% for patients whose spine shape was low PI/low lordosis (group 1), low PI anteverted (group 2), and high PI/high lordosis (group 3), respectively (p = 0.034). There was no association between ΔSPT ≥ 20° and PI ≤ 41° (odds ratio (OR) 2.01 (95% confidence interval (CI)0.88 to 4.62), p = 0.136). In the multivariate analysis, the following independent predictors of ΔSPT ≥ 20° were identified: SPT ≤ -10° (OR 3.49 (95% CI 1.59 to 7.66), p = 0.002), IP-LL ≥ 20 (OR 4.38 (95% CI 1.16 to 16.48), p = 0.029), and group 1 (OR 2.47 (95% CI 1.19; to 5.09), p = 0.0148). Conclusion. If the PI value alone is not indicative of SPM, patients with a low PI, low lordosis and a lumbar apex at L4-L5 or below will have higher rates of abnormal SPM than patients with a low PI anteverted and high lordosis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):668–675

Aims. Femoral periprosthetic fractures are rising in incidence. Their management is complex and carries a high associated mortality. Unlike native hip fractures, there are no guidelines advising on time to theatre in this group. We aim to determine whether delaying surgical intervention influences morbidity or mortality in femoral periprosthetic fractures. Methods. We identified all periprosthetic fractures around a hip or knee arthroplasty from our prospectively collated database between 2012 and 2021. Patients were categorized into early or delayed intervention based on time from admission to surgery (early = ≤ 36 hours, delayed > 36 hours). Patient demographics, existing implants, Unified Classification System fracture subtype, acute medical issues on admission, preoperative haemoglobin, blood transfusion requirement, and length of hospital stay were identified for all patients. Complication and mortality rates were compared between groups. Results. A total of 365 patients were identified: 140 in the early and 225 in the delayed intervention group. Mortality rate was 4.1% at 30 days and 19.2% at one year. There was some indication that those who had surgery within 36 hours had a higher mortality rate, but this did not reach statistical significance at 30 days (p = 0.078) or one year (p = 0.051). Univariate analysis demonstrated that age, preoperative haemoglobin, acute medical issue on admission, and the presence of postoperative complications influenced 30-day and one-year mortality. Using a multivariate model, age and preoperative haemoglobin were independently predictive factors for one-year mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.071; p < 0.001 and OR 0.980; p = 0.020). There was no association between timing of surgery and postoperative complications. Postoperative complications were more likely with increasing age (OR 1.032; p = 0.001) and revision arthroplasty compared to internal fixation (OR 0.481; p = 0.001). Conclusion. While early intervention may be preferable to reduce prolonged immobilization, there is no evidence that delaying surgery beyond 36 hours increases mortality or complications in patients with a femoral periprosthetic fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):452–456

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to identify independent predictors associated with nonunion and delayed union of tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The secondary aim was to assess the Radiological Union Scale for Tibial fractures (RUST) score as an early predictor of tibial fracture nonunion. Methods. A consecutive series of 647 patients who underwent intramedullary nailing for tibial diaphyseal fractures were identified from a trauma database. Demographic data, comorbidities, smoking status, alcohol consumption, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and steroid use were documented. Details regarding mechanism of injury, fracture classification, complications, and further surgery were recorded. Nonunion was defined as the requirement for revision surgery to achieve union. Delayed union was defined as a RUST score < 10 at six months postoperatively. Results. There were 41 nonunions (6.3%), of which 13 were infected (31.7%), and 77 delayed unions (11.9%). There were 127 open fractures (19.6%). Adjusting for confounding variables, NSAID use (odds ratio (OR) 3.50; p = 0.042), superficial infection (OR 3.00; p = 0.026), open fractures (OR 5.44; p < 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 2.51; p = 0.040) were independently associated with nonunion. Smoking (OR 1.76; p = 0.034), open fracture (OR 2.82; p = 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 1.81; p = 0.030) were independent predictors associated with delayed union. The RUST score at six-week follow-up was highly predictive of nonunion (sensitivity and specificity of 75%). Conclusion. NSAID use, high-energy mechanisms, open fractures, and superficial infection were independently associated with nonunion in patients with tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The six-week RUST score may be useful in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):227–235

Aims. Instability is a common cause of failure after total hip arthroplasty. A novel reverse total hip has been developed, with a femoral cup and acetabular ball, creating enhanced mechanical stability. The purpose of this study was to assess the implant fixation using radiostereometric analysis (RSA), and the clinical safety and efficacy of this novel design. Methods. Patients with end-stage osteoarthritis were enrolled in a prospective cohort at a single centre. The cohort consisted of 11 females and 11 males with mean age of 70.6 years (SD 3.5) and BMI of 31.0 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.7). Implant fixation was evaluated using RSA as well as Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, Harris Hip Score, Oxford Hip Score, Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, 38-item Short Form survey, and EuroQol five-dimension health questionnaire scores at two-year follow-up. At least one acetabular screw was used in all cases. RSA markers were inserted into the innominate bone and proximal femur with imaging at six weeks (baseline) and six, 12, and 24 months. Independent-samples t-tests were used to compare to published thresholds. Results. Mean acetabular subsidence from baseline to 24 months was 0.087 mm (SD 0.152), below the critical threshold of 0.2 mm (p = 0.005). Mean femoral subsidence from baseline to 24 months was -0.002 mm (SD 0.194), below the published reference of 0.5 mm (p < 0.001). There was significant improvement in patient-reported outcome measures at 24 months with good to excellent results. Conclusion. RSA analysis demonstrates excellent fixation with a predicted low risk of revision at ten years of this novel reverse total hip system. Clinical outcomes were consistent with safe and effective hip replacement prostheses. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):385–392

Aims. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable method for producing 3D reconstruction of sonographic callus. Methods. A cohort of ten closed tibial shaft fractures managed with intramedullary nailing underwent ultrasound scanning at two, six, and 12 weeks post-surgery. Ultrasound capture was performed using infrared tracking technology to map each image to a 3D lattice. Using echo intensity, semi-automated mapping was performed to produce an anatomical 3D representation of the fracture site. Two reviewers independently performed 3D reconstructions and kappa coefficient was used to determine agreement. A further validation study was undertaken with ten reviewers to estimate the clinical application of this imaging technique using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results. Nine of the ten patients achieved union at six months. At six weeks, seven patients had bridging callus of ≥ one cortex on the 3D reconstruction and when present all achieved union. Compared to six-week radiographs, no bridging callus was present in any patient. Of the three patients lacking sonographic bridging callus, one went onto a nonunion (77.8% sensitive and 100% specific to predict union). At 12 weeks, nine patients had bridging callus at ≥ one cortex on 3D reconstruction (100%-sensitive and 100%-specific to predict union). Presence of sonographic bridging callus on 3D reconstruction demonstrated excellent reviewer agreement on ICC at 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.96). Conclusion. 3D fracture reconstruction can be created using multiple ultrasound images in order to evaluate the presence of bridging callus. This imaging modality has the potential to enhance the usability and accuracy of identification of early fracture healing. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):759–766

Aims. Synovial fluid white blood cell (WBC) count and percentage of polymorphonuclear cells (%PMN) are elevated at periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). Leucocytes produce different interleukins (IL), including IL-6, so we hypothesized that synovial fluid IL-6 could be a more accurate predictor of PJI than synovial fluid WBC count and %PMN. The main aim of our study was to compare the predictive performance of all three diagnostic tests in the detection of PJI. Methods. Patients undergoing total hip or knee revision surgery were included. In the perioperative assessment phase, synovial fluid WBC count, %PMN, and IL-6 concentration were measured. Patients were labeled as positive or negative according to the predefined cut-off values for IL-6 and WBC count with %PMN. Intraoperative samples for microbiological and histopathological analysis were obtained. PJI was defined as the presence of sinus tract, inflammation in histopathological samples, and growth of the same microorganism in a minimum of two or more samples out of at least four taken. Results. In total, 49 joints in 48 patients (mean age 68 years (SD 10; 26 females (54%), 25 knees (51%)) were included. Of these 11 joints (22%) were infected. The synovial fluid WBC count and %PMN predicted PJI with sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, PPV, and NPV of 82%, 97%, 94%, 90%, and 95%, respectively. Synovial fluid IL-6 predicted PJI with sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, PPV, and NPV of 73%, 95%, 90%, 80%, and 92%, respectively. A comparison of predictive performance indicated a strong agreement between tests. Conclusions. Synovial fluid IL-6 is not superior to synovial fluid WBC count and %PMN in detecting PJI. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level II. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2020;1-12:737–742

Aims. Fractures of the distal radius are common, and form a considerable proportion of the trauma workload. We conducted a study to examine the patterns of injury and treatment for adult patients presenting with distal radius fractures to a major trauma centre serving an urban population. Methods. We undertook a retrospective cohort study to identify all patients treated at our major trauma centre for a distal radius fracture between 1 June 2018 and 1 May 2021. We reviewed the medical records and imaging for each patient to examine patterns of injury and treatment. We undertook a binomial logistic regression to produce a predictive model for operative fixation or inpatient admission. Results. Overall, 571 fractures of the distal radius were treated at our centre during the study period. A total of 146 (26%) patients required an inpatient admission, and 385 surgical procedures for fractures of the distal radius were recorded between June 2018 and May 2021. The most common mechanism of injury was a fall from a height of one metre or less. Of the total fractures, 59% (n = 337) were treated nonoperatively, and of those patients treated with surgery, locked anterior-plate fixation was the preferred technique (79%; n = 180). Conclusion. The epidemiology of distal radius fractures treated at our major trauma centre replicated the classical bimodal distribution described in the literature. Patient age, open fractures, and fracture classification were factors correlated with the decision to treat the fracture operatively. While most fractures were treated nonoperatively, locked anterior-plate fixation remains the predominant method of fixation for fractures of the distal radius; this is despite questions and continued debate about the best method of surgical fixation for these injuries. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(8):623–627

Aims. Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an autosomal recessive inherited condition that presents with a number of clinical manifestations that include musculoskeletal manifestations (MM). MM may present differently in different individuals and settings and the predictors are not well known. Herein, we aimed at determining the predictors of MM in patients with SCD at the University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia. Methods. An unmatched case-control study was conducted between January and May 2019 in children below the age of 16 years. In all, 57 cases and 114 controls were obtained by systematic sampling method. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. The different MM were identified, staged, and classified according to the Standard Orthopaedic Classification Systems using radiological and laboratory investigations. The data was entered in Epidata version 3.1 and exported to STATA 15 for analysis. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine predictors and predictive margins were used to determine the probability of MM. Results. The cases were older median age 9.5 (interquartile range (IQR) 7 to 12) years compared to controls 7 (IQR 4 to 11) years; p = 0.003. After multivariate logistic regression, increase in age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.45; p = 0.043), increase in the frequency of vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC) (AOR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; p = 0.009) and increase in percentage of haemoglobin S (HbS) (AOR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.29; p < 0.001) were significant predictors of MM. Predictive margins showed that for a 16-year-old the average probability of having MM would be 51 percentage points higher than that of a two-year-old. Conclusion. Increase in age, frequency of VOC, and an increase in the percentage of HbS were significant predictors of MM. These predictors maybe useful to clinicians in determining children who are at risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:175–181

Aims. Deep surgical site infection (SSI) remains an unsolved problem after hip fracture. Debridement, antibiotic, and implant retention (DAIR) has become a mainstream treatment in elective periprosthetic joint infection; however, evidence for DAIR after infected hip hemiarthroplaty is limited. Methods. Patients who underwent a hemiarthroplasty between March 2007 and August 2018 were reviewed. Multivariable binary logistic regression was performed to identify and adjust for risk factors for SSI, and to identify factors predicting a successful DAIR at one year. Results. A total of 3,966 patients were identified. The overall rate of SSI was 1.7% (51 patients (1.3%) with deep SSI, and 18 (0.45%) with superficial SSI). In all, 50 patients underwent revision surgery for infection (43 with DAIR, and seven with excision arthroplasty). After adjustment for other variables, only concurrent urinary tract infection (odds ratio (OR) 2.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57 to 4.92; p < 0.001) and increasing delay to theatre for treatment of the fracture (OR 1.31 per day, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.52; p < 0.001) were predictors of developing a SSI, while a cemented arthroplasty was protective (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.96; p = 0.031). In all, nine patients (20.9%) were alive at one year with a functioning hemiarthroplasty following DAIR, 20 (46.5%) required multiple surgical debridements after an initial DAIR, and 18 were converted to an excision arthroplasty due to persistent infection, with six were alive at one year. The culture of any gram-negative organism reduced success rates to 12.5% (no cases were successful with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus or Pseudomonas infection). Favourable organisms included Citrobacter and Proteus (100% cure rate). The all-cause mortality at one year after deep SSI was 55.87% versus 24.9% without deep infection. Conclusion. Deep infection remains a devastating complication regardless of the treatment strategy employed. Success rates of DAIR are poor compared to total hip arthroplasty, and should be reserved for favourable organisms in patients able to tolerate multiple surgical procedures. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):958–965

Aims. Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common degenerative joint disease worldwide, which is characterized by articular cartilage lesions. With more understanding of the disease, OA is considered to be a disorder of the whole joint. However, molecular communication within and between tissues during the disease process is still unclear. In this study, we used transcriptome data to reveal crosstalk between different tissues in OA. Methods. We used four groups of transcription profiles acquired from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, including articular cartilage, meniscus, synovium, and subchondral bone, to screen differentially expressed genes during OA. Potential crosstalk between tissues was depicted by ligand-receptor pairs. Results. During OA, there were 626, 97, 1,060, and 2,330 differentially expressed genes in articular cartilage, meniscus, synovium, and subchondral bone, respectively. Gene Ontology enrichment revealed that these genes were enriched in extracellular matrix and structure organization, ossification, neutrophil degranulation, and activation at different degrees. Through ligand-receptor pairing and proteome of OA synovial fluid, we predicted ligand-receptor interactions and constructed a crosstalk atlas of the whole joint. Several interactions were reproduced by transwell experiment in chondrocytes and synovial cells, including TNC-NT5E, TNC-SDC4, FN1-ITGA5, and FN1-NT5E. After lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or interleukin (IL)-1β stimulation, the ligand expression of chondrocytes and synovial cells was upregulated, and corresponding receptors of co-culture cells were also upregulated. Conclusion. Each tissue displayed a different expression pattern in transcriptome, demonstrating their specific roles in OA. We highlighted tissue molecular crosstalk through ligand-receptor pairs in OA pathophysiology, and generated a crosstalk atlas. Strategies to interfere with these candidate ligands and receptors may help to discover molecular targets for future OA therapy. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(12):862–872

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate machine-learning-based computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), Oxford Knee Score (OKS), Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), and the Oxford Elbow Score (OES) and its subscales. Methods. We developed CAT algorithms for the OHS, OKS, OSS, overall OES, and each of the OES subscales, using responses to the full-length questionnaires and a machine-learning technique called regression tree learning. The algorithms were evaluated through a series of simulation studies, in which they aimed to predict respondents’ full-length questionnaire scores from only a selection of their item responses. In each case, the total number of items used by the CAT algorithm was recorded and CAT scores were compared to full-length questionnaire scores by mean, SD, score distribution plots, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation (ICC), and the Bland-Altman method. Differences between CAT scores and full-length questionnaire scores were contextualized through comparison to the instruments’ minimal clinically important difference (MCID). Results. The CAT algorithms accurately estimated 12-item questionnaire scores from between four and nine items. Scores followed a very similar distribution between CAT and full-length assessments, with the mean score difference ranging from 0.03 to 0.26 out of 48 points. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and ICC were 0.98 for each 12-item scale and 0.95 or higher for the OES subscales. In over 95% of cases, a patient’s CAT score was within five points of the full-length questionnaire score for each 12-item questionnaire. Conclusion. Oxford Hip Score, Oxford Knee Score, Oxford Shoulder Score, and Oxford Elbow Score (including separate subscale scores) CATs all markedly reduce the burden of items to be completed without sacrificing score accuracy. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):786–794

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine satisfaction rates after hip and knee arthroplasty in patients who did not respond to postoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), characteristics of non-responders, and contact preferences to maximize response rates. Methods. A prospective cohort study of patients planned to undergo hip arthroplasty (n = 713) and knee arthroplasty (n = 737) at a UK university teaching hospital who had completed preoperative PROMs questionnaires, including the EuroQol five-dimension health-related quality of life score, and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Follow-up questionnaires were sent by post at one year, including satisfaction scoring. Attempts were made to contact patients who did not initially respond. Univariate, logistic regression, and receiver operator curve analysis was performed. Results. At one year, 667 hip patients (93.5%) and 685 knee patients (92.9%) had undergone surgery and were alive. No response was received from 151/667 hip patients (22.6%), 83 (55.0%) of whom were ultimately contacted); or from 108/685 knee patients (15.8%), 91 (84.3%) of whom were ultimately contacted. There was no difference in satisfaction after arthroplasty between initial non-responders and responders for hips (74/81 satisfied vs 476/516 satisfied; p = 0.847) or knees (81/93 satisfied vs 470/561 satisfied; p = 0.480). Initial non-response and persistent non-response was associated with younger age, higher BMIs, and worse preoperative PROMs for both hip and knee patients (p < 0.050). Being in employment was associated with persistent non-response for hip patients (p = 0.047). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that younger age (p < 0.038), higher BMI (p = 0.018), and poorer preoperative OHS (p = 0.031) were independently associated with persistent non-response to hip PROMs. No independent associations were identified for knees. Using a threshold of > 66.4 years predicted a preference for contact by post (area under the curve 0.723 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.647 to 0.799; p < 0.001, though this CI crosses the 0.7 limit considered reliable). Conclusion. The majority of initial non-responders were ultimately contactable with effort. Satisfaction rates were not inferior in patients who did not initially respond to PROMs. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):275–283

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology and treatment of Perthes’ disease of the hip. Methods. This was an anonymized comprehensive cohort study of Perthes’ disease, with a nested consented cohort. A total of 143 of 144 hospitals treating children’s hip disease in the UK participated over an 18-month period. Cases were cross-checked using a secondary independent reporting network of trainee surgeons to minimize those missing. Clinician-reported outcomes were collected until two years. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were collected for a subset of participants. Results. Overall, 371 children (396 hips) were newly affected by Perthes’ disease arising from 63 hospitals, with a median of two patients (interquartile range 1.0 to 5.5) per hospital. The annual incidence was 2.48 patients (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.20 to 2.76) per 100,000 zero- to 14-year-olds. Of these, 117 hips (36.4%) were treated surgically. There was considerable variation in the treatment strategy, and an optimized decision tree identified joint stiffness and age above eight years as the key determinants for containment surgery. A total of 348 hips (88.5%) had outcomes to two years, of which 227 were in the late reossification stage for which a hip shape outcome (Stulberg grade) was assigned. The independent predictors of a poorer radiological outcome were female sex (odds ratio (OR) 2.27 (95% CI 1.19 to 4.35)), age above six years (OR 2.62 (95% CI (1.30 to 5.28)), and over 50% radiological collapse at inclusion (OR 2.19 (95% CI 0.99 to 4.83)). Surgery had no effect on radiological outcomes (OR 1.03 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.96)). PROMs indicated the marked effect of the disease on the child, which persisted at two years. Conclusion. Despite the frequency of containment surgery, we found no evidence of improved outcomes. There appears to be a sufficient case volume and community equipoise among surgeons to embark on a randomized clinical trial to definitively investigate the effectiveness of containment surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):510–518

Aims. The Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) classification is a simple and comprehensive system for predicting pre-arthritic knee alignment. However, when the CPAK classification is applied in the Asian population, which is characterized by more varus and wider distribution in lower limb alignment, modifications in the boundaries of arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) and joint line obliquity (JLO) should be considered. The purposes of this study were as follows: first, to propose a modified CPAK classification based on the actual joint line obliquity (aJLO) and wider range of aHKA in the Asian population; second, to test this classification in a cohort of Asians with healthy knees; third, to propose individualized alignment targets for different CPAK types in kinematically aligned (KA) total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. The CPAK classification was modified by changing the neutral boundaries of aHKA to 0° ± 3° and using aJLO as a new variable. Radiological analysis of 214 healthy knees in 214 Asian individuals was used to assess the distribution and mean value of alignment angles of each phenotype among different classifications based on the coronal plane. Individualized alignment targets were set according to the mean lateral distal femoral angle (LDFA) and medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA) of different knee types. Results. A very high concentration, 191 from 214 individuals (89.3%), were found in knee types with apex distal JLO when the CPAK classification was applied in the Asian population. By using aJLO as a new variable, the high distribution percentage in knee types with apex distal JLO decreased to 125 from 214 individuals (58.4%). The most common types in order were Type II (n = 70; 32.7%), Type V (n = 55; 25.7%), and Type I (n = 46; 21.5%) in the modified CPAK classification. Conclusion. The modified CPAK classification corrected the uneven distribution when applying the CPAK classification in the Asian population. Setting individualized TKA alignment targets according to CPAK type may be a practical method to recreate optimal LDFA and MPTA in KA-TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):211–217

Aims. Anchorage of pedicle screw rod instrumentation in the elderly spine with poor bone quality remains challenging. Our study aims to evaluate how the screw bone anchorage is affected by screw design, bone quality, loading conditions, and cementing techniques. Methods. Micro-finite element (µFE) models were created from micro-CT (μCT) scans of vertebrae implanted with two types of pedicle screws (L: Ennovate and R: S. 4. ). Simulations were conducted for a 10 mm radius region of interest (ROI) around each screw and for a full vertebra (FV) where different cementing scenarios were simulated around the screw tips. Stiffness was calculated in pull-out and anterior bending loads. Results. Experimental pull-out strengths were excellently correlated to the µFE pull-out stiffness of the ROI (R. 2. > 0.87) and FV (R. 2. > 0.84) models. No significant difference due to screw design was observed. Cement augmentation increased pull-out stiffness by up to 94% and 48% for L and R screws, respectively, but only increased bending stiffness by up to 6.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Cementing involving only one screw tip resulted in lower stiffness increases in all tested screw designs and loading cases. The stiffening effect of cement augmentation on pull-out and bending stiffness was strongly and negatively correlated to local bone density around the screw (correlation coefficient (R) = -0.95). Conclusion. This combined experimental, µCT and µFE study showed that regional analyses may be sufficient to predict fixation strength in pull-out and that full analyses could show that cement augmentation around pedicle screws increased fixation stiffness in both pull-out and bending, especially for low-density bone. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):797–806

Aims. In computer simulations, the shape of the range of motion (ROM) of a stem with a cylindrical neck design will be a perfect cone. However, many modern stems have rectangular/oval-shaped necks. We hypothesized that the rectangular/oval stem neck will affect the shape of the ROM and the prosthetic impingement. Methods. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) motion while standing and sitting was simulated using a MATLAB model (one stem with a cylindrical neck and one stem with a rectangular neck). The primary predictor was the geometry of the neck (cylindrical vs rectangular) and the main outcome was the shape of ROM based on the prosthetic impingement between the neck and the liner. The secondary outcome was the difference in the ROM provided by each neck geometry and the effect of the pelvic tilt on this ROM. Multiple regression was used to analyze the data. Results. The stem with a rectangular neck has increased internal and external rotation with a quatrefoil cross-section compared to a cone in a cylindrical neck. Modification of the cup orientation and pelvic tilt affected the direction of projection of the cone or quatrefoil shape. The mean increase in internal rotation with a rectangular neck was 3.4° (0° to 7.9°; p < 0.001); for external rotation, it was 2.8° (0.5° to 7.8°; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Our study shows the importance of attention to femoral implant design for the assessment of prosthetic impingement. Any universal mathematical model or computer simulation that ignores each stem’s unique neck geometry will provide inaccurate predictions of prosthetic impingement. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):780–789

Aims. Circular RNA (circRNA) S-phase cyclin A-associated protein in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) (circSCAPER, ID: hsa_circ_0104595) has been found to be highly expressed in osteoarthritis (OA) patients and has been associated with the severity of OA. Hence, the role and mechanisms underlying circSCAPER in OA were investigated in this study. Methods. In vitro cultured human normal chondrocyte C28/I2 was exposed to interleukin (IL)-1β to mimic the microenvironment of OA. The expression of circSCAPER, microRNA (miR)-140-3p, and enhancer of zeste homolog 2 (EZH2) was detected using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blot assays. The extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation, proliferation, and apoptosis of chondrocytes were determined using Western blot, cell counting kit-8, and flow cytometry assays. Targeted relationships were predicted by bioinformatic analysis and verified using dual-luciferase reporter and RNA immunoprecipitation (RIP) assays. The levels of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (AKT) pathway-related protein were detected using Western blot assays. Results. CircSCAPER was highly expressed in OA cartilage tissues and IL-1β-induced chondrocytes. Knockdown of circSCAPER reduced IL-1β-evoked ECM degradation, proliferation arrest, and apoptosis enhancement in chondrocytes. Mechanistically, circSCAPER directly bound to miR-140-3p, and miR-140-3p inhibition reversed the effects of circSCAPER knockdown on IL-1β-induced chondrocytes. miR-140-3p was verified to target EZH2, and overexpression of miR-140-3p protected chondrocytes against IL-1β-induced dysfunction via targeting EZH2. Additionally, we confirmed that circSCAPER could regulate EZH2 through sponging miR-140-3p, and the circSCAPER/miR-140-3p/EZH2 axis could activate the PI3K/AKT pathway. Conclusion. CircSCAPER promoted IL-1β-evoked ECM degradation, proliferation arrest, and apoptosis enhancement in chondrocytes via regulating miR-140-3p/EZH2 axis, which gained a new insight into the pathogenesis of OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(2):61–72

Aims. To analyze the potential role of synovial fluid peptidase activity as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Methods. A cross-sectional study of 39 patients (women 71.8%, men 28.2%; mean age of 72.03 years (SD 1.15) with advanced KOA (Ahlbäck grade ≥ 3 and clinical indications for arthrocentesis) recruited through the (Orthopaedic Department at the Complejo Asistencial Universitario de León, Spain (CAULE)), measuring synovial fluid levels of puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), neutral aminopeptidase (NAP), aminopeptidase B (APB), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), aspartate aminopeptidase (ASP), glutamyl aminopeptidase (GLU) and pyroglutamyl aminopeptidase (PGAP). Results. Synovial fluid peptidase activity varied significantly as a function of clinical signs, with differences in levels of PEP (p = 0.020), ASP (p < 0.001), and PGAP (p = 0. 003) associated with knee locking, PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p = 0.000) with knee failure, and PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p < 0.001) with knee effusion. Further, patients with the greatest functional impairment had significantly higher levels of APB (p = 0.005), PEP (p = 0.005), ASP (p = 0.006), GLU (p = 0.020), and PGAP (p < 0.001) activity, though not of NAP or PSA, indicating local alterations in the renin-angiotensin system. A binary logistic regression model showed that PSA was protective (p = 0.005; Exp (B) 0.949), whereas PEP (p = 0.005) and GLU were risk factors (p = 0.012). Conclusion. These results suggest synovial fluid peptidase activity could play a role as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in KOA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):789–797

Aims. It is unknown whether gap laxities measured in robotic arm-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) correlate to load sensor measurements. The aim of this study was to determine whether symmetry of the maximum medial and lateral gaps in extension and flexion was predictive of knee balance in extension and flexion respectively using different maximum thresholds of intercompartmental load difference (ICLD) to define balance. Methods. A prospective cohort study of 165 patients undergoing functionally-aligned TKA was performed (176 TKAs). With trial components in situ, medial and lateral extension and flexion gaps were measured using robotic navigation while applying valgus and varus forces. The ICLD between medial and lateral compartments was measured in extension and flexion with the load sensor. The null hypothesis was that stressed gap symmetry would not correlate directly with sensor-defined soft tissue balance. Results. In TKAs with a stressed medial-lateral gap difference of ≤1 mm, 147 (89%) had an ICLD of ≤15 lb in extension, and 112 (84%) had an ICLD of ≤ 15 lb in flexion; 157 (95%) had an ICLD ≤ 30 lb in extension, and 126 (94%) had an ICLD ≤ 30 lb in flexion; and 165 (100%) had an ICLD ≤ 60 lb in extension, and 133 (99%) had an ICLD ≤ 60 lb in flexion. With a 0 mm difference between the medial and lateral stressed gaps, 103 (91%) of TKA had an ICLD ≤ 15 lb in extension, decreasing to 155 (88%) when the difference between the medial and lateral stressed extension gaps increased to ± 3 mm. In flexion, 47 (77%) had an ICLD ≤ 15 lb with a medial-lateral gap difference of 0 mm, increasing to 147 (84%) at ± 3 mm. Conclusion. This study found a strong relationship between intercompartmental loads and gap symmetry in extension and flexion measured with prostheses in situ. The results suggest that ICLD and medial-lateral gap difference provide similar assessment of soft-tissue balance in robotic arm-assisted TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):974–980

Aims. We aim to objectively assess the impact of COVID-19 on mean total operative cases for all indicative procedures (as outlined by the Joint Committee on Surgical Training (JCST)) experienced by orthopaedic trainees in the deanery of the Republic of Ireland. Subjective experiences were reported for each trainee using questionnaires. Methods. During the first four weeks of the nationwide lockdown due to COVID-19, the objective impact of the pandemic on each trainee’s surgical caseload exposure was assessed using data from individual trainee logbook profiles in the deanery of the Republic of Ireland. Independent predictor variables included the trainee grade (ST 3 to 8), the individual trainee, the unit that the logbook was reported from, and the year in which the logbook was recorded. We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test to assess for any statistically significant predictor variables. The subjective experience of each trainee was captured using an electronic questionnaire. Results. The mean number of total procedures per trainee over four weeks was 36.8 (7 to 99; standard deviation (SD) 19.67) in 2018, 40.6 (6 to 81; SD 17.90) in 2019, and 18.3 (3 to 65; SD 11.70) during the pandemic of 2020 (p = 0.043). Significant reductions were noted for all elective indicative procedures, including arthroplasty (p = 0.019), osteotomy (p = 0.045), nerve decompression (p = 0.024) and arthroscopy (p = 0.024). In contrast, none of the nine indicative procedures for trauma were reduced. There was a significant inter-unit difference in the mean number of total cases (p = 0.029) and indicative cases (p = 0.0005) per trainee. We noted that 7.69% (n = 3) of trainees contracted COVID-19. Conclusion. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the mean number of operative cases per trainee has been significantly reduced for four of the 13 indicative procedures, as outlined by the JCST. Reassignment of trainees to high-volume institutions in the future may be a plausible approach to mitigate significant training deficits in those trainees worst impacted by the reduction in operative exposure

Objectives. Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is an alternative to total knee arthroplasty with isolated medial or lateral compartment osteoarthritis. However, polyethylene wear can significantly reduce the lifespan of UKA. Different bearing designs and materials for UKA have been developed to change the rate of polyethylene wear. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of insert conformity and material on the predicted wear in mobile-bearing UKA using a previously developed computational wear method. Methods. Two different designs were tested with the same femoral component under identical kinematic input: anatomy mimetic design (AMD) and conforming design inserts with different conformity levels. The insert materials were standard or crosslinked ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene (UHMWPE). We evaluated the contact pressure, contact area, wear rate, wear depth, and volumetric wear under gait cycle loading conditions. Results. Conforming design inserts had the lower contact pressure and larger contact area. However, they also had the higher wear rate and volumetric wear. The improved wear performance was found with AMD inserts. In addition, the computationally predicted volumetric wear of crosslinked UHMWPE inserts was less than half that of standard UHMWPE inserts. Conclusion. Our results showed that increasing conformity may not be the sole predictor of wear performance; highly crosslinked mobile-bearing polyethylene inserts can also provide improvement in wear performance. These results provide improvements in design and materials to reduce wear in mobile-bearing UKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2019;8:563–569

Aims. Currently, there is no single, comprehensive national guideline for analgesic strategies for total joint replacement. We compared inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip arthroplasty (THA) versus total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in order to determine risk factors for increased inpatient and outpatient opioid requirements following total hip or knee arthroplasty. Methods. Outcomes after 92 primary total knee (n = 49) and hip (n = 43) arthroplasties were analyzed. Patients with repeat surgery within 90 days were excluded. Opioid use was recorded while inpatient and 90 days postoperatively. Outcomes included total opioid use, refills, use beyond 90 days, and unplanned clinical encounters for uncontrolled pain. Multivariate modelling determined the effect of surgery, regional nerve block (RNB) or neuraxial anesthesia (NA), and non-opioid medications after adjusting for demographics, ength of stay, and baseline opioid use. Results. TKAs had higher daily inpatient opioid use than THAs (in 5 mg oxycodone pill equivalents: median 12.0 vs 7.0; p < 0.001), and greater 90 day use (median 224.0 vs 100.5; p < 0.001). Opioid refills were more likely in TKA (84% vs 33%; p < 0.001). Patient who underwent TKA had higher independent risk of opioid use beyond 90 days than THA (adjusted OR 7.64; 95% SE 1.23 to 47.5; p = 0.01). Inpatient opioid use 24 hours before discharge was the strongest independent predictor of 90-day opioid use (p < 0.001). Surgical procedure, demographics, and baseline opioid use have greater influence on in/outpatient opioid demand than RNB, NA, or non-opioid analgesics. Conclusion. Opioid use following TKA and THA is most strongly predicted by surgical and patient factors. TKA was associated with higher postoperative opioid requirements than THA. RNB and NA did not diminish total inpatient or 90-day postoperative opioid consumption. The use of acetaminophen, gabapentin, or NSAIDs did not significantly alter inpatient opioid requirements. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:398–404

Aims. Temporary epiphysiodesis (ED) is commonly applied in children and adolescents to treat leg length discrepancies (LLDs) and tall stature. Traditional Blount staples or modern two-hole plates are used in clinical practice. However, they require accurate planning, precise surgical techniques, and attentive follow-up to achieve the desired outcome without complications. This study reports the results of ED using a novel rigid staple (RigidTack) incorporating safety, as well as technical and procedural success according to the idea, development, evaluation, assessment, long-term (IDEAL) study framework. Methods. A cohort of 56 patients, including 45 unilateral EDs for LLD and 11 bilateral EDs for tall stature, were prospectively analyzed. ED was performed with 222 rigid staples with a mean follow-up of 24.4 months (8 to 49). Patients with a predicted LLD of ≥ 2 cm at skeletal maturity were included. Mean age at surgery was 12.1 years (8 to 14). Correction and complication rates including implant-associated problems, and secondary deformities as well as perioperative parameters, were recorded (IDEAL stage 2a). These results were compared to historical cohorts treated for correction of LLD with two-hole plates or Blount staples. Results. The mean LLD was reduced from 25.2 mm (15 to 45) before surgery to 9.3 mm (6 to 25) at skeletal maturity. Implant-associated complications occurred in 4/56 treatments (7%), and secondary frontal plane deformities were detected in 5/45 legs (11%) of the LLD cohort. Including tall stature patients, the rate increased to 12/67 legs (18%). Sagittal plane deformities were observed during 1/45 LLD treatments (2%). Compared to two-hole plates and Blount staples, similar correction rates were observed in all devices. Lower rates of frontal and sagittal plane deformities were observed using rigid staples. Conclusion. Treatment of LLD using novel rigid staples appears a feasible and promising strategy. Secondary frontal and sagittal plane deformities remain a potential complication, although the rate seems to be lower in patients treated with rigid staples. Further comparative studies are needed to investigate this issue. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1428–1437

Aims. Hereditary haemochromatosis is a genetic disorder that is caused by several known mutations in the human homeostatic iron regulator protein (HFE) gene. Abnormal accumulation of iron causes a joint disease that resembles osteoarthritis (OA), but appears at a relatively younger age and is accompanied by cirrhosis, diabetes, and injury to other organs. Increased serum transferrin saturation and ferritin levels are known markers of haemochromatosis with high positive predictive values. Methods. We have retrospectively analyzed the iron studies of a cohort of 2,035 patients undergoing knee joint arthroplasty due to OA. Results. No patients had HFE gene C282Y, S65C, or H63D mutations testing. In total, 18 patients (2.96%) of the male cohort and 51 (3.58%) of the female cohort had pathologically increased ferritin levels that may be indicative of haemochromatosis. Seven patients (0.34%) had serum transferrin saturation above 45%. Conclusion. The awareness for the diagnosis of this disorder in Orthopaedics is low and needs improvement. Osteoarthritic patients undergoing knee arthroplasty should be routinely screened for haemochromatosis by iron studies and referred to genetic testing when needed. Level of evidence: Level III - Retrospective cohort study. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(12):1062–1066

Aims. Periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is an established treatment for acetabular dysplasia. It has also been proposed as a treatment for patients with acetabular retroversion. By reviewing a large cohort, we aimed to test whether outcome is equivalent for both types of morphology and identify factors that influenced outcome. Methods. A single-centre, retrospective cohort study was performed on patients with acetabular retroversion treated with PAO (n = 62 hips). Acetabular retroversion was diagnosed clinically and radiologically (presence of a crossover sign, posterior wall sign, lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) between 20° and 35°). Outcomes were compared with a control group of patients undergoing PAO for dysplasia (LCEA < 20°; n = 86 hips). Femoral version was recorded. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), complications, and reoperation rates were measured. Results. The mean Non-Arthritic Hip Score (NAHS) preoperatively was 58.6 (SD 16.1) for the dysplastic hips and 52.5 (SD 12.7) for the retroverted hips (p = 0.145). Postoperatively, mean NAHS was 83.0 (SD 16.9) and 76.7 (SD 17.9) for dysplastic and retroverted hips respectively (p = 0.041). Difference between pre- and postoperative NAHS was slightly lower in the retroverted hips (18.3 (SD 22.1)) compared to the dysplastic hips (25.2 (SD 15.2); p = 0.230). At mean 3.5 years’ follow-up (SD 1.9), one hip needed a revision PAO and no hips were converted to total hip arthroplasty (THA) in the retroversion group. In the control group, six hips (7.0%) were revised to THA. No differences in complications (p = 0.106) or in reoperation rate (p = 0.087) were seen. Negative predictors of outcome for patients undergoing surgery for retroversion were female sex, obesity, hypermobility, and severely decreased femoral anteversion. Conclusion. A PAO is an effective surgical intervention for acetabular retroversion and produces similar improvements when used to treat dysplasia. Femoral version should be routinely assessed in these patients and when extremely low (< 0°), as an additional procedure to address this abnormality may be necessary. Females with signs of hypermobility should also be consulted of the likely guarded improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(9):757–764

Aims. This pilot study tested the performance of a rapid assay for diagnosing prosthetic joint infection (PJI), which measures synovial fluid calprotectin from total hip and knee revision patients. Methods. A convenience series of 69 synovial fluid samples from revision patients at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital were collected intraoperatively (52 hips, 17 knees) and frozen. Synovial fluid calprotectin was measured retrospectively using a new commercially available lateral flow assay for PJI diagnosis (Lyfstone AS) and compared to International Consensus Meeting (ICM) 2018 criteria and clinical case review (ICM-CR) gold standards. Results. According to ICM, 24 patients were defined as PJI positive and the remaining 45 were negative. The overall accuracy of the lateral flow test compared to ICM was 75.36% (52/69, 95% CI 63.51% to 84.95%), sensitivity and specificity were 75.00% (18/24, 95% CI 53.29% to 90.23%) and 75.56% (34/45, 95% CI 60.46% to 87.12%), respectively, positive predictive value (PPV) was 62.07% (18/29, 95% CI 48.23% to 74.19%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 85.00% (34/40, 95% CI 73.54% to 92.04%), and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.78 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.87). Patient data from discordant cases were reviewed by the clinical team to develop the ICM-CR gold standard. The lateral flow test performance improved significantly when compared to ICM-CR, with accuracy increasing to 82.61% (57/69, 95% CI 71.59% to 90.68%), sensitivity increasing to 94.74% (18/19, 95% CI 73.97% to 99.87%), NPV increasing to 97.50% (39/40, 95% CI 85.20% to 99.62%), and AUC increasing to 0.91 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.96). Test performance was better in knees (100.00% accurate (17/17, 95% CI 80.49% to 100.00%)) compared to hips (76.92% accurate (40/52, 95% CI 63.16% to 87.47%)). Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the calprotectin lateral flow assay could be an effective diagnostic test for PJI, however additional prospective studies testing fresh samples are required. Cite this article:Bone Joint Res. 2020;9(5):202–210

Aims. Preoperative diagnosis is important for revision surgery after prosthetic joint infection (PJI). The purpose of our study was to determine whether reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), which is used to detect bacterial ribosomal RNA (rRNA) preoperatively, can reveal PJI in low volumes of aspirated fluid. Methods. We acquired joint fluid samples (JFSs) by preoperative aspiration from patients who were suspected of having a PJI and failed arthroplasty; patients with preoperative JFS volumes less than 5 ml were enrolled. RNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and bacterial culture were performed, and diagnostic efficiency was compared between the two methods.According to established Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria, 21 of the 33 included patients were diagnosed with PJI. Results. RNA-based PCR exhibited 57.1% sensitivity, 91.7% specificity, 69.7% accuracy, 92.3% positive predictive value, and 55.0% negative predictive value. The corresponding values for culture were 28.6%, 83.3%, 48.5%, 75.0%, and 40.0%, respectively. A significantly higher sensitivity was thus obtained with the PCR method versus the culture method. Conclusion. In situations in which only a small JFS volume can be acquired, RNA-based PCR analysis increases the utility of preoperative puncture for patients who require revision surgery due to suspected PJI. Cite this article:Bone Joint Res. 2020;9(5):219–224

Aims. The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. Methods. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. Results. By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. Conclusion. There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103–110

Objectives. Different criteria for assessing the reduction quality of trochanteric fractures have been reported. The Baumgaertner reduction quality criteria (BRQC) are relatively common and the Chang reduction quality criteria (CRQC) are relatively new. The objectives of the current study were to compare the reliability of the BRQC and CRQC in predicting mechanical complications and to investigate the clinical implications of the CRQC. Methods. A total of 168 patients were assessed in a retrospective observational study. Clinical information including age, sex, fracture side, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, tip-apex distance (TAD), fracture classification, reduction quality, blade position, BRQC, CRQC, bone quality, and the occurrence of mechanical complications were used in the statistical analysis. Results. A total of 127 patients were included in the full analysis, and mechanical complications were observed in 26 patients. The TAD, blade position, BRQC and CRQC were significantly associated with mechanical complications in the univariate analysis. Only the TAD (p = 0.025) and the CRQC (p < 0.001) showed significant results in the multivariate analysis. In the comparison of the receiver operating characteristic curves, the CRQC also performed better than the BRQC. Conclusion. The CRQC are reliable in predicting mechanical complications and are more reliable than the BRQC. Future studies could use the CRQC to assess fracture reduction quality. Intraoperatively, the surgeon should refer to the CRQC to achieve good reduction in trochanteric fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2019;8:502–508

Aims. To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods. A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results. The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion. Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (. https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk. ). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820

Aims. The main aims were to identify risk factors predictive of a radiolucent line (RLL) around the acetabular component with an interface bioactive bone cement (IBBC) technique in the first year after THA, and evaluate whether these risk factors influence the development of RLLs at five and ten years after THA. Methods. A retrospective review was undertaken of 980 primary cemented THAs in 876 patients using cemented acetabular components with the IBBC technique. The outcome variable was any RLLs that could be observed around the acetabular component at the first year after THA. Univariate analyses with univariate logistic regression and multivariate analyses with exact logistic regression were performed to identify risk factors for any RLLs based on radiological classification of hip osteoarthritis. Results. RLLs were detected in 27.2% of patients one year postoperatively. In multivariate regression analysis controlling for confounders, atrophic osteoarthritis (odds ratio (OR) 2.17 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04 to 4.49); p = 0.038) and 26 mm (OR 3.23 (95% CI 1.85 to 5.66); p < 0.001) or 28 mm head diameter (OR 3.64 (95% CI 2.07 to 6.41); p < 0.001) had a significantly greater risk for any RLLs one year after surgery. Structural bone graft (OR 0.19 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.29) p < 0.001) and location of the hip centre within the true acetabular region (OR 0.15 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.24); p < 0.001) were significantly less prognostic. Improvement of the cement-bone interface including complete disappearance and poorly defined RLLs was identified in 15.1% of patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for the acetabular component at ten years with revision of the acetabular component for aseptic loosening as the end point was 100.0% with a RLL and 99.1% without a RLL (95% CI 97.9 to 100). With revision of the acetabular component for any reason as the end point, the survival rate was 99.2% with a RLL (95% CI 97.6 to 100) and 96.5% without a RLL (95% CI 93.4 to 99.7). Conclusion. This study demonstrates that acetabular bone quality, head diameter, structural bone graft, and hip centre position may influence the presence of the any RLL. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2021;2(5):278–292