Aims. This study identifies early risk factors for symptomatic nonunion of displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle that aid identification of an at risk group who may benefit from surgery. . Methods . We performed a retrospective study of 88 patients aged between 16 and 60 years that were managed non-operatively. . Results . The rate of symptomatic nonunion requiring surgery was 14% (n = 13). Smoking (odds ratio (OR) 40.76, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.38 to 120.30) and the six week Disabilities of the Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22, for each point increase) were independent predictors of nonunion. A six week DASH score of 35 or more was identified as a threshold value to predict nonunion using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Smoking and the threshold value in the DASH and were additive risk factors for nonunion, when neither were present the risk of nonunion was 2%, if one or the other were present the nonunion rate was between 17% to 20%, and if both were present the rate increased to 44%. Discussion. Patients with either of these risk factors, which include approximately half of all patients sustaining displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle, are at an increased risk of developing a symptomatic non-union. Take home message: Smoking and failure of functional return at six weeks are significant predictors of nonunion of the midshaft of the clavicle. Such patients warrant further investigation as to whether they would benefit from early surgical fixation in order to avoid the morbidity of a nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:125–30

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. Hip arthroscopy has gained prominence as a primary surgical intervention for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). This study aimed to identify radiological features, and their combinations, that predict the outcome of hip arthroscopy for FAI. Methods. A prognostic cross-sectional cohort study was conducted involving patients from a single centre who underwent hip arthroscopy between January 2013 and April 2021. Radiological metrics measured on conventional radiographs and magnetic resonance arthrography were systematically assessed. The study analyzed the relationship between these metrics and complication rates, revision rates, and patient-reported outcomes. Results. Out of 810 identified hip arthroscopies, 359 hips were included in the study. Radiological risk factors associated with unsatisfactory outcomes after cam resection included a dysplastic posterior wall, Tönnis grade 2 or higher, and over-correction of the α angle. The presence of acetabular retroversion and dysplasia were also significant predictors for worse surgical outcomes. Notably, over-correction of both cam and pincer deformities resulted in poorer outcomes than under-correction. Conclusion. We recommend caution in performing hip arthroscopy in patients who have three positive acetabular retroversion signs. Acetabular dysplasia with a lateral centre-edge angle of less than 20° should not be treated with isolated hip arthroscopy. Acetabular rim-trimming should be avoided in patients with borderline dysplasia, and care should be taken to avoid over-correction of a cam deformity and/or pincer deformity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):775–782

Aims. The preoperative grading of chondrosarcomas of bone that accurately predicts surgical management is difficult for surgeons, radiologists, and pathologists. There are often discrepancies in grade between the initial biopsy and the final histology. Recent advances in the use of imaging methods have shown promise in the ability to predict the final grade. The most important clinical distinction is between grade 1 chondrosarcomas, which are amenable to curettage, and resection-grade chondrosarcomas (grade 2 and 3) which require en bloc resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Radiological Aggressiveness Score (RAS) to predict the grade of primary chondrosarcomas in long bones and thus to guide management. Methods. A total of 113 patients with a primary chondrosarcoma of a long bone presenting between January 2001 and December 2021 were identified on retrospective review of a single oncology centre’s prospectively collected database. The nine-parameter RAS included variables from radiographs and MRI scans. The best cut-off of parameters to predict the final grade of chondrosarcoma after resection was determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and this was correlated with the biopsy grade. Results. A RAS of ≥ four parameters was 97.9% sensitive and 90.5% specific in predicting resection-grade chondrosarcoma based on a ROC cut-off derived using the Youden index. Cronbach’s α of 0.897 was derived as the interclass correlation for scoring the lesions by four blinded reviewers who were surgeons. Concordance between resection-grade lesions predicted from the RAS and ROC cut-off with the final grade after resection was 96.46%. Concordance between the biopsy grade and the final grade was 63.8%. However, when the patients were analyzed based on surgical management, the initial biopsy was able to differentiate low-grade from resection-grade chondrosarcomas in 82.9% of biopsies. Conclusion. These findings suggest that the RAS is an accurate method for guiding the surgical management of patients with these tumours, particularly when the initial biopsy results are discordant with the clinical presentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):808–814

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. We aimed to develop a gene signature that predicts the occurrence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) by studying its genetic mechanism. Methods. Five datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Unsupervised consensus cluster analysis was used to determine new PMOP subtypes. To determine the central genes and the core modules related to PMOP, the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WCGNA) was applied. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis was used to explore the biological processes underlying key genes. Logistic regression univariate analysis was used to screen for statistically significant variables. Two algorithms were used to select important PMOP-related genes. A logistic regression model was used to construct the PMOP-related gene profile. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, Harrell’s concordance index, a calibration chart, and decision curve analysis were used to characterize PMOP-related genes. Then, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was used to verify the expression of the PMOP-related genes in the gene signature. Results. We identified three PMOP-related subtypes and four core modules. The muscle system process, muscle contraction, and actin filament-based movement were more active in the hub genes. We obtained five feature genes related to PMOP. Our analysis verified that the gene signature had good predictive power and applicability. The outcomes of the GSE56815 cohort were found to be consistent with the results of the earlier studies. qRT-PCR results showed that RAB2A and FYCO1 were amplified in clinical samples. Conclusion. The PMOP-related gene signature we developed and verified can accurately predict the risk of PMOP in patients. These results can elucidate the molecular mechanism of RAB2A and FYCO1 underlying PMOP, and yield new and improved treatment strategies, ultimately helping PMOP monitoring. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(8):548–560

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008). Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:383–90

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. Transfusion after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has become rare, and identification of causative factors allows preventive measures. The aim of this study was to determine patient-specific factors that increase the risk of needing a blood transfusion. Methods. All patients who underwent elective THA were analyzed retrospectively in this single-centre study from 2020 to 2021. A total of 2,892 patients were included. Transfusion-related parameters were evaluated. A multiple logistic regression was performed to determine whether age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, sex, or preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) could predict the need for transfusion within the examined patient population. Results. The overall transfusion rate was 1.2%. Compared to the group of patients without blood transfusion, the transfused group was on average older (aged 73.8 years (SD 9.7) vs 68.6 years (SD 10.1); p = 0.020) and was mostly female (p = 0.003), but showed no significant differences in terms of BMI (28.3 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.9) vs 28.7 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.2); p = 0.720) or ASA grade (2.2 (SD 0.5) vs 2.1 (SD 0.4); p = 0.378). The regression model identified a cutoff Hb level of < 7.6 mmol/l (< 12.2 g/dl), aged > 73 years, and a BMI of 35.4 kg/m² or higher as the three most reliable predictors associated with postoperative transfusion in THA. Conclusion. The possibility of transfusion is predictable based on preoperatively available parameters. The proposed thresholds for preoperative Hb level, age, and BMI can help identify patients and take preventive measures if necessary. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):560–564

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) thresholds for Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index (WOSI), Rowe score, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES), and visual analogue scale (VAS) scores following arthroscopic Bankart repair, and to identify preoperative threshold values of these scores that could predict the achievement of MCID and PASS. Methods. A retrospective review was conducted on 131 consecutive patients with anterior shoulder instability who underwent arthroscopic Bankart repair between January 2020 and January 2023. Inclusion criteria required at least one episode of shoulder instability and a minimum follow-up period of 12 months. Preoperative and one-year postoperative scores were assessed. MCID and PASS were estimated using distribution-based and anchor-based methods, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined preoperative patient-reported outcome measure thresholds predictive of achieving MCID and PASS. Results. MCID thresholds were determined as 169.6, 6.8, 7.2, and 1.1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. PASS thresholds were calculated as ≤ 480, ≥ 80, ≥ 87, and ≤ 1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 760 (WOSI) and ≤ 50 (Rowe) predicted achieving MCID for WOSI score (p < 0.001). Preoperative thresholds of ≤ 60 (ASES) and ≥ 2 (VAS) predicted achieving MCID for VAS score (p < 0.001). A preoperative threshold of ≥ 40 (Rowe) predicted achieving PASS for Rowe score (p = 0.005). Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 50 (ASES; p = 0.002) and ≤ 2 (VAS; p < 0.001) predicted achieving PASS for the ASES score. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 43 (ASES; p = 0.046) and ≤ 4 (VAS; p = 0.024) predicted achieving PASS for the VAS. Conclusion. This study defined MCID and PASS values for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS scores in patients undergoing arthroscopic Bankart repair. Higher preoperative functional scores may reduce the likelihood of achieving MCID but increase the likelihood of achieving the PASS. These findings provide valuable guidance for surgeons to counsel patients realistically regarding their expectations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1118–1124

Aims. Periprosthetic fractures (PPFs) around the knee are challenging injuries. This study aims to describe the characteristics of knee PPFs and the impact of patient demographics, fracture types, and management modalities on in-hospital mortality. Methods. Using a multicentre study design, independent of registry data, we included adult patients sustaining a PPF around a knee arthroplasty between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. Univariate, then multivariable, logistic regression analyses were performed to study the impact of patient, fracture, and treatment on mortality. Results. Out of a total of 1,667 patients in the PPF study database, 420 patients were included. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.4%. Multivariable analyses suggested that American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, history of peripheral vascular disease (PVD), history of rheumatic disease, fracture around a loose implant, and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) during hospital stay were each independently associated with mortality. Each point increase in ASA grade independently correlated with a four-fold greater mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 4.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 14.06); p = 0.026). Patients with PVD have a nine-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 9.1 (95% CI 1.25 to 66.47); p = 0.030) and patients with rheumatic disease have a 6.8-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 6.8 (95% CI 1.32 to 34.68); p = 0.022). Patients with a fracture around a loose implant (Unified Classification System (UCS) B2) have a 20-fold increase in mortality, compared to UCS A1 (OR 20.9 (95% CI 1.61 to 271.38); p = 0.020). Mode of management was not a significant predictor of mortality. Patients managed with revision arthroplasty had a significantly longer length of stay (median 16 days; p = 0.029) and higher rates of return to theatre, compared to patients treated nonoperatively or with fixation. Conclusion. The mortality rate in PPFs around the knee is similar to that for native distal femur and neck of femur fragility fractures. Patients with certain modifiable risk factors should be optimized. A national PPF database and standardized management guidelines are currently required to understand these complex injuries and to improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):158–165

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess mapping models to predict the three-level version of EuroQoL five-dimension utility index (EQ-5D-3L) from the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and validate these before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients was used to create the prediction models, and a second cohort of 721 patients from a different centre was used to validate the models, all of whom underwent TKA. Patient characteristics, BMI, OKS, and EQ-5D-3L were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Generalized linear regression was used to formulate the prediction models. Results. There were significant correlations between the OKS and EQ-5D-3L preoperatively (r = 0.68; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.61; p < 0.001). Three different models (preoperative, postoperative, and change) were created. There were no significant differences between the actual and predicted mean EQ-5D-3L utilities at any timepoint or for change in the scores (p > 0.090) in the validation cohort. There was a significant correlation between the actual and predicted EQ-5D-3L utilities preoperatively (r = 0.63; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.56; p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that a lower utility was overestimated, and higher utility was underestimated. The individual predicted EQ-5D-3L that was within ± 0.05 and ± 0.010 (minimal clinically important difference (MCID)) of the actual EQ-5D-3L varied between 13% to 35% and 26% to 64%, respectively, according to timepoint assessed and change in the scores, but was not significantly different between the modelling and validation cohorts (p ≥ 0.148). Conclusion. The OKS can be used to estimate EQ-5D-3L. Predicted individual patient utility error beyond the MCID varied from one-third to two-thirds depending on timepoint assessed, but the mean for a cohort did not differ and could be employed for this purpose. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):573–581

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. Frailty has been gathering attention as a factor to predict surgical outcomes. However, the association of frailty with postoperative complications remains controversial in spinal metastases surgery. We therefore designed a prospective study to elucidate risk factors for postoperative complications with a focus on frailty. Methods. We prospectively analyzed 241 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent palliative surgery from June 2015 to December 2021. Postoperative complications were assessed by the Clavien-Dindo classification; scores of ≥ Grade II were defined as complications. Data were collected regarding demographics (age, sex, BMI, and primary cancer) and preoperative clinical factors (new Katagiri score, Frankel grade, performance status, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, spinal instability neoplastic score, modified Frailty Index-11 (mFI), diabetes, and serum albumin levels). Univariate and multivariate analyses were developed to identify risk factors for postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Results. Overall, 57 postoperative complications occurred in 47 of 241 (19.5%) patients. The most common complications were wound infection/dehiscence, urinary tract infection, and pneumonia. Univariate analysis identified preoperative radiotherapy (p = 0.028), mFI (p < 0.001), blood loss ≥ 500 ml (p = 0.016), and preoperative molecular targeted drugs (p = 0.030) as potential risk factors. From the receiver operating characteristic curve, the clinically optimal cut-off value of mFI was 0.27 (sensitivity, 46.8%; specificity, 79.9%). Multivariate analysis identified mFI ≥ 0.27 (odds ratio (OR) 2.94 (95% CI 1.44 to 5.98); p = 0.003) and preoperative radiotherapy (OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.46); p = 0.049) as significant risk factors. In particular, urinary tract infection (p = 0.012) and pneumonia (p = 0.037) were associated with mFI ≥ 0.27. Furthermore, the severity of postoperative complications was positively correlated with mFI (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The mFI is a useful tool to predict the incidence and the severity of postoperative complications in spinal metastases surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1469–1476

Aims. The aims of this study were to determine if an increasing serum cobalt (Co) and/or chromium (Cr) concentration is correlated with a decreasing Harris Hip Score (HHS) and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) in patients who received the Articular Surface Replacement (ASR) hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA), and to evaluate the ten-year revision rate and show if sex, inclination angle, and Co level influenced the revision rate. Methods. A total of 62 patients with an ASR-HRA were included and monitored yearly postoperatively. At follow-up, serum Co and Cr levels were measured and the HHS and the HOOS were scored. In addition, preoperative patient and implant variables and the need for revision surgery were recorded. We used a linear mixed model to relate the serum Co and Cr levels to different patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). For the survival analyses we used the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression model. Results. We found that an increase of one part per billion (ppb) in serum Co and Cr levels correlated significantly with worsening of the HHS in the following year. This significant correlation was also true for the HOOS-Pain and HOOS-quality of life sub scores. The overall ten-year survival rate in our cohort was 65% (95% confidence interval (CI) 52.5 to 77.6). Cox regression analysis showed a significant hazard ratio (HR) of 1.08 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.15; p = 0.028) for serum Co level. No significance was found with sex or inclination angle. Conclusion. This study shows that increasing serum Co and Cr levels measured in patients with an ASR-HRA are predictive for deterioration in HHS and HOOS subscales in the following year. Increasing serum Co and Cr should forewarn both surgeon and patient that there is a heightened risk of failure. Continued and regular review of patients with an ASR-HRA implant by measurement of serum Co/Cr levels and PROMs remains essential. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):775–782

Aims. This study examined windswept deformity (WSD) of the knee, comparing prevalence and contributing factors in healthy and osteoarthritic (OA) cohorts. Methods. A case-control radiological study was undertaken comparing 500 healthy knees (250 adults) with a consecutive sample of 710 OA knees (355 adults) undergoing bilateral total knee arthroplasty. The mechanical hip-knee-ankle angle (mHKA), medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA), and lateral distal femoral angle (LDFA) were determined for each knee, and the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA), joint line obliquity, and Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) types were calculated. WSD was defined as a varus mHKA of < -2° in one limb and a valgus mHKA of > 2° in the contralateral limb. The primary outcome was the proportional difference in WSD prevalence between healthy and OA groups. Secondary outcomes were the proportional difference in WSD prevalence between constitutional varus and valgus CPAK types, and to explore associations between predefined variables and WSD within the OA group. Results. WSD was more prevalent in the OA group compared to the healthy group (7.9% vs 0.4%; p < 0.001, relative risk (RR) 19.8). There was a significant difference in means and variance between the mHKA of the healthy and OA groups (mean -1.3° (SD 2.3°) vs mean -3.8°(SD 6.6°) respectively; p < 0.001). No significant differences existed in MPTA and LDFA between the groups, with a minimal difference in aHKA (mean -0.9° healthy vs -0.5° OA; p < 0.001). Backwards logistic regression identified meniscectomy, rheumatoid arthritis, and osteotomy as predictors of WSD (odds ratio (OR) 4.1 (95% CI 1.7 to 10.0), p = 0.002; OR 11.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 89.3); p = 0.016; OR 41.6 (95% CI 5.4 to 432.9), p ≤ 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. This study found a 20-fold greater prevalence of WSD in OA populations. The development of WSD is associated with meniscectomy, rheumatoid arthritis, and osteotomy. These findings support WSD being mostly an acquired condition following skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):879–885

Aims. Intra-articular (IA) tumours around the knee are treated with extra-articular (EA) resection, which is associated with poor functional outcomes. We aim to evaluate the accuracy of MRI in predicting IA involvement around the knee. Methods. We identified 63 cases of high-grade sarcomas in or around the distal femur that underwent an EA resection from a prospectively maintained database (January 1996 to April 2020). Suspicion of IA disease was noted in 52 cases, six had IA pathological fracture, two had an effusion, two had prior surgical intervention (curettage/IA intervention), and one had an osseous metastasis in the proximal tibia. To ascertain validity, two musculoskeletal radiologists (R1, R2) reviewed the preoperative imaging (MRI) of 63 consecutive cases on two occasions six weeks apart. The radiological criteria for IA disease comprised evidence of tumour extension within the suprapatellar pouch, intercondylar notch, extension along medial/lateral retinaculum, and presence of IA fracture. The radiological predictions were then confirmed with the final histopathology of the resected specimens. Results. The resection histology revealed 23 cases (36.5%) showing IA disease involvement compared with 40 cases without (62%). The intraobserver variability of R1 was 0.85 (p < 0.001) compared to R2 with κ = 0.21 (p = 0.007). The interobserver variability was κ = 0.264 (p = 0.003). Knee effusion was found to be the most sensitive indicator of IA involvement, with a sensitivity of 91.3% but specificity of only 35%. However, when combined with a pathological fracture, this rose to 97.5% and 100% when disease was visible in Hoffa’s fat pad. Conclusion. MRI imaging can sometimes overestimate IA joint involvement and needs to be correlated with clinical signs. In the light of our findings, we would recommend EA resections when imaging shows effusion combined with either disease in Hoffa’s fat pad or retinaculum, or pathological fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):696–701

Aims. The most important complication of treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head, which can result in proximal femoral growth disturbances leading to pain, dysfunction, and eventually to early onset osteoarthritis. In this study, we aimed to identify morphological variants in hip joint development that are predictive of a poor outcome. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all patients who developed AVN after DDH treatment, either by closed and/or open reduction, at a single institution between 1984 and 2007 with a minimal follow-up of eight years. Standard pelvis radiographs obtained at ages one, two, three, five, and eight years, and at latest follow-up were retrieved. The Bucholz-Ogden classification was used to determine the type of AVN on all radiographs. Poor outcome was defined by Severin classification grade 3 or above on the latest follow-up radiographs and/or the need for secondary surgery. With statistical shape modelling, we identified the different shape variants of the hip at each age. Logistic regression analysis was used to associate the different modes or shape variants with poor outcome. Results. In all, 135 patients with AVN were identified, with a minimum of eight years of follow-up. Mean age at time of surgery was 7.0 months (SD 0.45), and mean follow-up was 13.3 years (SD 3.7). Overall, 46% had AVN type 1 while 54% type 2 or higher. More than half of the patients (52.6%) had a poor outcome. We found 11 shape variants that were significantly associated with a poor outcome. These shape variants were predominantly linked to AVN type 2 or higher. Conclusion. Specific morphological characteristics on pelvis radiographs of AVN hips were predictive for poor outcome, at a very young age. There was an overall stronger association to Bucholz-Ogden types 2-3-4 with the exception of two modes at age two and five years, linked to AVN type 1. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):999–1004

Aims. Surgical site infection (SSI) after soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) resection is a serious complication. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the risk factors for SSI after STS resection, and to develop a nomogram that allows patient-specific risk assessment. Methods. A total of 547 patients with STS who underwent tumour resection between 2005 and 2021 were divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort. In the development cohort of 402 patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to screen possible risk factors of SSI. To select risk factors and construct the prediction nomogram, multivariate logistic regression was used. The predictive power of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis in the validation cohort of 145 patients. Results. LASSO regression analysis selected possible risk factors for SSI, including age, diabetes, operating time, skin graft or flap, resected tumour size, smoking, and radiation therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, smoking during the previous year, operating time, and radiation therapy were independent risk factors for SSI. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the development cohort, the incidence of SSI was 4.5% in the low-risk group (risk score < 6.89) and 26.6% in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 6.89; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the incidence of SSI was 2.0% in the low-risk group and 15.9% in the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Conclusion. Our nomogram will enable surgeons to assess the risk of SSI in patients with STS. In patients with high risk of SSI, frequent monitoring and aggressive interventions should be considered to prevent this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):492–500

Aims. Hip fractures are some of the most common fractures encountered in orthopaedic practice. We aimed to identify whether perioperative hypotension is a predictor of 30-day mortality, and to stratify patient groups that would benefit from closer monitoring and early intervention. While there is literature on intraoperative blood pressure, there are limited studies examining pre- and postoperative blood pressure. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a one-year period from December 2021 to December 2022. Patient demographic details, biochemical results, and haemodynamic observations were taken from electronic medical records. Statistical analysis was conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, and the effects of independent variables estimated with the Wald statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated with the log-rank test. Results. A total of 528 patients were identified as suitable for inclusion. On multivariate analysis, postoperative hypotension of a systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg two to 24 hours after surgery showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for 30-day mortality (HR 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 8.9); p < 0.001) and was an independent risk factor accounting for sex (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 5.2); p = 0.003), age (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.1); p = 0.016), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); p < 0.001), time to theatre > 24 hours (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2); p = 0.025), and preoperative anaemia (HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 5.2); p = 0.043). A preoperative SBP of < 120 mmHg was close to achieving significance (HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.6); p = 0.052). Conclusion. Our study is the first to demonstrate that postoperative hypotension within the first 24 hours is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Clinicians should recognize patients who have a SBP of < 90 mmHg in the early postoperative period, and be aware of the increased mortality risk in this specific cohort who may benefit from a closer level of monitoring and early intervention. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):189–194

Aims. Neither a surgeon’s intraoperative impression nor the parameters of computer navigation have been shown to be predictive of the outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of this study was to determine whether a surgeon, with robotic assistance, can predict the outcome as assessed using the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) for pain (KPS), one year postoperatively, and establish what factors correlate with poor KOOS scores in a well-aligned and balanced TKA. Methods. A total of 134 consecutive patients who underwent TKA using a dynamic ligament tensioning robotic system with a tibia first resection technique and a cruciate sacrificing ultracongruent TKA system were enrolled into a prospective study. Each TKA was graded based on the final mediolateral ligament balance at 10° and 90° of flexion: 1) < 1 mm difference in the thickness of the tibial insert and that which was planned (n = 75); 2) < 1 mm difference (n = 26); 3) between 1 mm to 2 mm difference (n = 26); and 4) > 2 mm difference (n = 7). The mean one-year KPS score for each grade of TKA was compared and the likelihood of achieving an KPS score of > 90 was calculated. Finally, the factors associated with lower KPS despite achieving a high-grade TKA (grade A and B) were analyzed. Results. Patients with a grade of A or B TKA had significantly higher mean one-year KPS scores compared with those with C or D grades (p = 0.031). There was no difference in KPS scores in grade A or B TKAs, but 33% of these patients did not have a KPS score of > 90. While there was no correlation with age, sex, preoperative deformity, and preoperative KOOS and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) physical scores, patients with a KPS score of < 90, despite a grade A or B TKA, had lower PROMIS mental health scores compared with those with KPS scores of > 90 (54.1 vs 50.8; p = 0.043). Patients with grade A and B TKAs with KPS > 90 were significantly more likely to respond with “my expectations were too low”, and with “the knee is performing better than expected” compared with patients with these grades of TKA who had a KPS score of < 90 (40% vs 22%; p = 0.004). Conclusion. A TKA balanced with robotic assistance to within 1 mm of difference between the medial and lateral sides in both flexion and extension had a higher KPS score one year postoperatively. Despite accurate ligament balance information, a robotic system could not guarantee excellent pain relief. Patient expectations and mental status also significantly affected the perceived success of TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):67–73

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. This study of patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip aimed to: 1) characterize the contribution of the hip, spinopelvic complex, and lumbar spine when moving from the standing to the sitting position; 2) assess whether abnormal spinopelvic mobility is associated with worse symptoms; and 3) identify whether spinopelvic mobility can be predicted from static anatomical radiological parameters. Patients and Methods. A total of 122 patients with end-stage OA of the hip awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA) were prospectively studied. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs; Oxford Hip Score, Oswestry Disability Index, and Veterans RAND 12-Item Health Survey Score) and clinical data were collected. Sagittal spinopelvic mobility was calculated as the change from the standing to sitting position using the lumbar lordosis angle (LL), sacral slope (SS), pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic-femoral angle (PFA), and acetabular anteinclination (AI) from lateral radiographs. The interaction of the different parameters was assessed. PROMs were compared between patients with normal spinopelvic mobility (10° ≤ ∆PT ≤ 30°) or abnormal spinopelvic mobility (stiff: ∆PT < ± 10°; hypermobile: ∆PT > ± 30°). Multiple regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to test for possible predictors of spinopelvic mobility. Results. Standing to sitting, the hip flexed by a mean of 57° (. sd. 17°), the pelvis tilted backwards by a mean of 20° (. sd. 12°), and the lumbar spine flexed by a mean of 20° (. sd. 14°); strong correlations were detected. There was no difference in PROMs between patients in the different spinopelvic mobility groups. Maximum hip flexion, standing PT, and standing AI were independent predictors of spinopelvic mobility (R. 2. = 0.42). The combined thresholds for standing was PT ≥ 13° and hip flexion ≥ 88° in the clinical examination, and had 90% sensitivity and 63% specificity of predicting spinopelvic stiffness, while SS ≥ 42° had 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity of predicting spinopelvic hypermobility. Conclusion. The hip, on average, accounts for three-quarters of the standing-to-sitting movement, but there is great variation. Abnormal spinopelvic mobility cannot be screened with PROMs. However, clinical and standing radiological features can predict spinopelvic mobility with good enough accuracy, allowing them to be used as reliable screening tools. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:902–909

Aims. The outcomes following nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity (GT) fractures, and the factors which influence patient experience, remain poorly defined. We assessed the early patient-derived outcomes following these injuries and examined the effect of a range of demographic- and injury-related variables on these outcomes. Methods. In total, 101 patients (53 female, 48 male) with a mean age of 50.9 years (19 to 76) with minimally displaced GT fractures were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study. During the first year after injury, patients underwent experiential assessment using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score and assessment of associated injuries using MRI performed within two weeks of injury. The primary outcome was the one-year DASH score. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the effect of patient demographic factors, complications, and associated injuries, on outcome. Results. The mean DASH score improved from 42.3 (SD 9.6) at six weeks post-injury, to 19.5 (SD 14.3) at one-year follow-up (p < 0.001), but outcomes were mixed, with 30 patients having a DASH score > 30 at one year. MRI revealed a range of associated injuries, with a full-thickness rotator cuff tear present in 19 patients (19%). Overall, 11 patients (11%) developed complications requiring further operative intervention; 20 patients (21%) developed post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness. Multivariate analysis revealed a high-energy mechanism (p = 0.009), tobacco consumption (p = 0.033), use of mobility aids (p = 0.047), a full-thickness rotator cuff tear (p = 0.002), and the development of post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness (p = 0.035) were independent predictors of poorer outcome. Conclusion. The results of nonoperative management of minimally displaced GT fractures are heterogeneous. While many patients have satisfactory early outcomes, a substantial subgroup fare much worse. There is a high prevalence of rotator cuff injuries and post-traumatic shoulder stiffness, and their presence is associated with poorer patient experience. Furthermore, patients who have a high-energy injury, smoke, or use walking aids, have worse outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):534–542

Aims. The Uppföljningsprogram för cerebral pares (CPUP) Hip Score distinguishes between children with cerebral palsy (CP) at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score was constructed using data from Swedish children with CP, but has not been confirmed in any other population. The aim of this study was to determine the calibration and discriminatory accuracy of this score in children with CP in Scotland. Methods. This was a total population-based study of children registered with the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland. Displacement of the hip was defined as a migration percentage (MP) of > 40%. Inclusion criteria were children in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels III to V. The calibration slope was estimated and Kaplan-Meier curves produced for five strata of CPUP scores to compare the observed with the predicted risk of displacement of the hip at five years. For discriminatory accuracy, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated. In order to analyze differences in the performance of the score between cohorts, score weights, and subsequently the AUC, were re-estimated using the variables of the original score: the child’s age at the first examination, GMFCS level, head shaft angle, and MP of the worst hip in a logistic regression with imputation of outcomes for those with incomplete follow-up. Results. The discriminatory accuracy of the score in the new population of 367 children was high (AUC 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.86)). The calibration of the score was insufficient (slope 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.65)), and the absolute risks of displacement of the hip in this population were overestimated. The AUC increased with re-estimated weights (0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91)). Conclusion. The CPUP Hip Score had a high ability to discriminate between children at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score overestimated the absolute risks of displacement in this population, which may have resulted from differences in the way children were initially registered in the two programmes. The results are promising, but the score weights may need re-estimation before its clinical application in Scotland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):640–644

Aims. A proximal femur fracture (PFF) is a common orthopaedic presentation, with an incidence of over 25,000 cases reported in the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR) in 2018. Hip fractures are known to have high mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in predicting 30-day and one-year mortality after a PFF in older patients. Methods. A retrospective review of all fragility hip fractures who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the ANZHFR between 2017 and 2018 was undertaken at a single large volume tertiary hospital. There were 509 patients included in the study with one-year follow-up obtained in 502 cases. The CFS was applied retrospectively to patients according to their documented pre-morbid function and patients were stratified into five groups according to their frailty score. The groups were compared using t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the chi-squared test. The discriminative ability of the CFS to predict mortality was then compared with American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification and the patient’s chronological age. Results. A total of 38 patients were deceased at 30 days and 135 patients at one year. The 30-day mortality rate increased from 1.3% (CFS 1 to 3; 1/80) to 14.6% (CFS ≥ 7; 22/151), and the one-year mortality increased from 3.8% (CFS 1 to 3; 3/80) to 41.7% (CFS ≥ 7; 63/151). The CFS was demonstrated superior discriminative ability in predicting mortality after PFF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.699; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.651 to 0.747) when compared with the ASA (AUC 0.634; 95% CI 0.576 to 0.691) and chronological age groups (AUC 0.585; 95% CI 0.523 to 0.648). Conclusion. The CFS demonstrated utility in predicting mortality after PFF fracture. The CFS can be easily performed by non-geriatricians and may help to reduce age related bias influencing surgical decision making. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:443–449

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) demonstrated a ceiling effect at one and/or two years after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary aim was to identify preoperative independent predictors for patients that achieved a ceiling score after TKA. Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients undergoing a primary TKA were identified from an established arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, body mass index (BMI), OKS, and EuroQoL five-dimension (EQ-5D) general health scores were collected preoperatively and at one and two years postoperatively. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of patients achieving postoperative ceiling scores. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify a preoperative OKS that predicted a postoperative ceiling score. Results. The ceiling effect was 4.6% (n = 272) at one year which increased significantly (odds ratio (OR) 40.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.4 to 53.3; p < 0.001) to 6.2% (n = 363) at two years, when defined as those with a maximal score of 48 points. However, when the ceiling effect was defined as an OKS of 44 points or more, this increased to 26.3% (n = 1,540) at one year and further to 29.8% (n = 1,748) at two years (OR 21.6, 95% CI 18.7 to 25.1; p < 0.001). A preoperative OKS of 23 or more and 22 or more were predictive of achieving a postoperative ceiling OKS at one and two years when defined as a maximal score or a score of 44 or more, respectively. Conclusion. The postoperative OKS demonstrated a small ceiling effect when defined by a maximal score, but when defined by a postoperative OKS of 44 or more the ceiling effect was moderate and failed to meet standards. The preoperative OKS was an independent predictor of achieving a ceiling score. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1519–1526

Aims. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to compare directly volumetric wear of retrieved polyethylene inserts to predicted volumetric wear modelled from individual gait mechanics of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients. Methods. In total, 11 retrieved polyethylene tibial inserts were matched with gait analysis testing performed on those patients. Volumetric wear on the articular surfaces was measured using a laser coordinate measure machine and autonomous reconstruction. Knee kinematics and kinetics from individual gait trials drove computational models to calculate medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact paths and forces. Sliding distance along the contact path, normal forces and implantation time were used as inputs to Archard’s equation of wear to predict volumetric wear from gait mechanics. Measured and modelled wear were compared for each component. Results. Volumetric wear rates on eight non-delaminated components measured 15.9 mm. 3. /year (standard error (SE) ± 7.7) on the total part, 11.4 mm. 3. /year (SE ± 6.4) on the medial side and 4.4 (SE ± 2.6) mm. 3. /year on the lateral side. Volumetric wear rates modelled from patient gait mechanics predicted 16.4 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.4) on the total part, 11.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.1) on the medial side and 4.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 0.4) on the lateral side. Measured and modelled wear volumes correlated significantly on the total part (p = 0.017) and the medial side (p = 0.012) but not on the lateral side (p = 0.154). Conclusion. In the absence of delamination, patient-specific knee mechanics during gait directly affect wear of the tibial component in TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):129–137

Aims. To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports. Methods. Data pre-processing and analyses were conducted according to the Artificial intelligence to Revolutionize the patient Care pathway in Hip and knEe aRthroplastY (ARCHERY) project protocol. This included use of de-identified Scottish regional clinical data of patients referred for consideration of THA/TKA, held in a secure data environment designed for artificial intelligence (AI) inference. Only preoperative radiology reports were included. NLP algorithms were based on the freely available GatorTron model, a LLM trained on over 82 billion words of de-identified clinical text. Two inference tasks were performed: assessment after model-fine tuning (50 Epochs and three cycles of k-fold cross validation), and external validation. Results. For THA, there were 5,558 patient radiology reports included, of which 4,137 were used for model training and testing, and 1,421 for external validation. Following training, model performance demonstrated average (mean across three folds) accuracy, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.850 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.833 to 0.867), 0.813 (95% CI 0.785 to 0.841), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.822 to 0.872), respectively. For TKA, 7,457 patient radiology reports were included, with 3,478 used for model training and testing, and 3,152 for external validation. Performance metrics included accuracy, F1 score, and AUROC values of 0.757 (95% CI 0.702 to 0.811), 0.543 (95% CI 0.479 to 0.607), and 0.717 (95% CI 0.657 to 0.778) respectively. There was a notable deterioration in performance on external validation in both cohorts. Conclusion. The use of routinely available preoperative radiology reports provides promising potential to help screen suitable candidates for THA, but not for TKA. The external validation results demonstrate the importance of further model testing and training when confronted with new clinical cohorts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):688–695

Aims. To evaluate if union of clavicle fractures can be predicted at six weeks post-injury by the presence of bridging callus on ultrasound. Methods. Adult patients managed nonoperatively with a displaced mid-shaft clavicle were recruited prospectively. Ultrasound evaluation of the fracture was undertaken to determine if sonographic bridging callus was present. Clinical risk factors at six weeks were used to stratify patients at high risk of nonunion with a combination of Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH) ≥ 40, fracture movement on examination, or absence of callus on radiograph. Results. A total of 112 patients completed follow-up at six months with a nonunion incidence of 16.7% (n = 18/112). Sonographic bridging callus was detected in 62.5% (n = 70/112) of the cohort at six weeks post-injury. If present, union occurred in 98.6% of the fractures (n = 69/70). If absent, nonunion developed in 40.5% of cases (n = 17/42). The sensitivity to predict union with sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was 73.4% and the specificity was 94.4%. Regression analysis found that failure to detect sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was associated with older age, female sex, simple fracture pattern, smoking, and greater fracture displacement (Nagelkerke R. 2. = 0.48). Of the cohort, 30.4% (n = 34/112) had absent sonographic bridging callus in addition to one or more of the clinical risk factors at six weeks that predispose to nonunion. If one was present the nonunion rate was 35%, 60% with two, and 100% when combined with all three. Conclusion. Ultrasound combined with clinical risk factors can accurately predict fracture healing at six weeks following a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(2):113–121

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to elective orthopaedic services. The primary objective of this study was to examine changes in functional scores in patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Secondary objectives were to investigate differences between these groups and identify those in a health state ‘worse than death’ (WTD). Methods. In this prospective cohort study, preoperative Oxford hip and knee scores (OHS/OKS) were recorded for patients added to a waiting list for THA, TKA, or UKA, during the initial eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and repeated at 14 months into the pandemic (mean interval nine months (SD 2.84)). EuroQoL five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index scores were also calculated at this point in time, with a negative score representing a state WTD. OHS/OKS were analyzed over time and in relation to the EQ-5D-5L. Results. A total of 174 patients (58 THA, 74 TKA, 42 UKA) were eligible, after 27 were excluded (one died, seven underwent surgery, 19 non-responders). The overall mean OHS/OKS deteriorated from 15.43 (SD 6.92), when patients were added to the waiting list, to 11.77 (SD 6.45) during the pandemic (p < 0.001). There were significantly worse EQ-5D-5L index scores in the THA group (p = 0.005), with 22 of these patients (38%) in a health state WTD, than either the TKA group (20 patients; 27% WTD), or the UKA group (nine patients; 21% WTD). A strong positive correlation between the EQ-5D-5L index score and OHS/OKS was observed (r = 0.818; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that an OHS/OKS lower than nine predicted a health state WTD (88% sensitivity and 73% specificity). Conclusion. OHS/OKS deteriorated significantly among patients awaiting lower limb arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, 51 patients were in a health state WTD, representing 29% of our entire cohort, which is considerably worse than existing pre-pandemic data. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):138–145

Aims. The distal radius is a major site of osteoporotic bone loss resulting in a high risk of fragility fracture. This study evaluated the capability of a cortical index (CI) at the distal radius to predict the local bone mineral density (BMD). Methods. A total of 54 human cadaver forearms (ten singles, 22 pairs) (19 to 90 years) were systematically assessed by clinical radiograph (XR), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), CT, as well as high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT). Cortical bone thickness (CBT) of the distal radius was measured on XR and CT scans, and two cortical indices mean average (CBTavg) and gauge (CBTg) were determined. These cortical indices were compared to the BMD of the distal radius determined by DXA (areal BMD (aBMD)) and HR-pQCT (volumetric BMD (vBMD)). Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to compare the results and degree of reliability. Results. The CBT could accurately be determined on XRs and highly correlated to those determined on CT scans (r = 0.87 to 0.93). The CBTavg index of the XRs significantly correlated with the BMD measured by DXA (r = 0.78) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.63), as did the CBTg index with the DXA (r = 0.55) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.64) (all p < 0.001). A high correlation of the BMD and CBT was observed between paired specimens (r = 0.79 to 0.96). The intra- and inter-rater reliability was excellent (ICC 0.79 to 0.92). Conclusion. The cortical index (CBTavg) at the distal radius shows a close correlation to the local BMD. It thus can serve as an initial screening tool to estimate the local bone quality if quantitative BMD measurements are unavailable, and enhance decision-making in acute settings on fracture management or further osteoporosis screening. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):820–829

Aims. Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. Methods. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting. Results. The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures. Conclusion. The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26–32

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Objectives. Researchers continue to seek easier ways to evaluate the quality of bone and screen for osteoporosis and osteopenia. Until recently, radiographic images of various parts of the body, except the distal femur, have been reappraised in the light of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) findings. The incidence of osteoporotic fractures around the knee joint in the elderly continues to increase. The aim of this study was to propose two new radiographic parameters of the distal femur for the assessment of bone quality. Methods. Anteroposterior radiographs of the knee and bone mineral density (BMD) and T-scores from DXA scans of 361 healthy patients were prospectively analyzed. The mean cortical bone thickness (CBTavg) and the distal femoral cortex index (DFCI) were the two parameters that were proposed and measured. Intra- and interobserver reliabilities were assessed. Correlations between the BMD and T-score and these parameters were investigated and their value in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and osteopenia was evaluated. Results. The DFCI, as a ratio, had higher reliability than the CBTavg. Both showed significant correlation with BMD and T-score. When compared with DFCI, CBTavg showed better correlation and was better for predicting osteoporosis and osteopenia. Conclusion. The CBTavg and DFCI are simple and reliable screening tools for the prediction of osteoporosis and osteopenia. The CBTavg is more accurate but the DFCI is easier to use in clinical practice. Cite this article: Q-F. He, H. Sun, L-Y. Shu, Y. Zhu, X-T. Xie, Y. Zhan, C-F. Luo. Radiographic predictors for bone mineral loss: Cortical thickness and index of the distal femur. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:468–475. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.77.BJR-2017-0332.R1

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess the rate of patient satisfaction one year after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) according to the focus of the question asked. The secondary aims were to identify independent predictors of patient satisfaction according to the focus of the question. Patients and Methods. A retrospective cohort of 2521 patients undergoing a primary unilateral TKA were identified from an established regional arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, comorbidities, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) scores were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Patient satisfaction was assessed using four questions, which focused on overall outcome, activity, work, and pain. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of increased stiffness when adjusting for confounding variables. Results. Using patient satisfaction with the overall outcome (n = 2265, 89.8%) as the standard, there was no difference in the rate of satisfaction for pain relief (n = 2277, odds ratio (OR) 0.95, 95% confident intervals (CI) 0.79 to 1.14, p = 0.60), but patients were more likely to be dissatisfied with activities (79.3%, n = 2000/2521, OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.96 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and work (85.8%, n = 2163/2521, OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.75, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified different predictors of satisfaction for each of the focused satisfaction questions. Overall satisfaction was influenced by diabetes (p = 0.03), depression (p = 0.004), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 physical (p = 0.008) and mental (p = 0.01) components. Satisfaction with activities was influenced by depression (p = 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC stiffness score (p = 0.03), and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with work was influenced by depression (p = 0.007), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC function (p = 0.04) and stiffness (p = 0.05) scores, and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with pain relief was influenced by diabetes (p < 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 mental component (p = 0.04). Conclusion. The focus of the satisfaction question significantly influences the rate and the predictors of patient satisfaction after TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:740–8

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease. Methods. A total of 88 patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until a mean follow-up of 21 years. Anteroposterior pelvic and frog-leg lateral radiographs were obtained at diagnosis and at follow-up of one, five, and 21 years. At the five- and 21-year follow-up, the femoral heads were classified using a modified three-group Stulberg classification (round, ovoid, or flat femoral head). Further radiological endpoints at long-term follow-up were osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and the requirement for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Results. There were 71 males (81%) and 17 females. A total of 13 patients had bilateral Perthes’ disease; thus 101 hips were analyzed. At five-year follow-up, 37 hips were round, 38 ovoid, and 26 flat. At that time, 66 hips (65%) were healed and 91 (90%) were skeletally immature. At long-term follow-up, when the mean age of the patients was 28 years (24 to 34), 20 hips had an unsatisfactory outcome (seven had OA and 13 had required THA). There was a strongly significant association between the modified Stulberg classification applied atfive-year follow-up and an unsatisfactory outcome at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Between the five- and 21-year follow-up, 67 hips (76%) stayed in their respective modified Stulberg group, indicating a strongly significant association between the Stulberg classifications at these follow-ups (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The modified Stulberg classification is a strong predictor of long-term radiological outcome in patients with Perthes’ disease. It can be applied at the healing stage, which is usually reached five years after the diagnosis is made and before skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1815–1820

Aims. We quantitatively compared the 3D bone density distributions on CT scans performed on scaphoid waist fractures subacutely that went on to union or nonunion, and assessed whether 2D CT evaluations correlate with 3D bone density evaluations. Methods. We constructed 3D models from 17 scaphoid waist fracture CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture that did not unite (nonunion group), 17 age-matched scaphoid waist fracture CTs that healed (union group), and 17 age-matched control CTs without injury (control group). We measured the 3D bone density for the distal and proximal fragments relative to the triquetrum bone density and compared findings among the three groups. We then performed bone density measurements using 2D CT and evaluated the correlation with 3D bone densities. We identified the optimal cutoff with diagnostic values of the 2D method to predict nonunion with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. In the nonunion group, both the distal (100.2%) and proximal (126.6%) fragments had a significantly higher bone density compared to the union (distal: 85.7%; proximal: 108.3%) or control groups (distal: 91.6%; proximal: 109.1%) using the 3D bone density measurement, which were statistically significant for all comparisons. 2D measurements were highly correlated to 3D bone density measurements (Spearman’s correlation coefficient (R) = 0.85 to 0.95). Using 2D measurements, ROC curve analysis revealed the optimal cutoffs of 90.8% and 116.3% for distal and proximal fragments. This led to a sensitivity of 1.00 if either cutoff is met and a specificity of 0.82 when both cutoffs are met. Conclusion. Using 3D modelling software, nonunions were found to exhibit bone density increases in both the distal and proximal fragments in CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture during the course of treatment. 2D bone density measurements using standard CT scans correlate well with 3D models. In patients with scaphoid fractures, CT bone density measurements may be useful in predicting the likelihood of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1200–1209

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Aims. The lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) is a plain radiological measure of superolateral cover of the femoral head. This study aims to establish the correlation between 2D radiological and 3D CT measurements of acetabular morphology, and to describe the relationship between LCEA and femoral head cover (FHC). Methods. This retrospective study included 353 periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs) performed between January 2014 and December 2017. Overall, 97 hips in 75 patients had 3D analysis by Clinical Graphics, giving measurements for LCEA, acetabular index (AI), and FHC. Roentgenographical LCEA, AI, posterior wall index (PWI), and anterior wall index (AWI) were measured from supine AP pelvis radiographs. The correlation between CT and roentgenographical measurements was calculated. Sequential multiple linear regression was performed to determine the relationship between roentgenographical measurements and CT FHC. Results. CT-measured LCEA and AI correlated strongly with roentgenographical LCEA (r = 0.92; p < 0.001) and AI (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). Radiological LCEA correlated very strongly with CT FHC (r = 0.92; p < 0.001). The sum of AWI and PWI also correlated strongly with CTFHC (r = 0.73; p < 0.001). CT measurements of LCEA and AI were 3.4° less and 2.3° greater than radiological LCEA and AI measures. There was a linear relation between radiological LCEA and CT FHC. The linear regression model statistically significantly predicted FHC from LCEA, F(1,96) = 545.1 (p < 0.001), adjusted R. 2. = 85.0%, with the prediction equation: CT FHC(%) = 42.1 + 0.77(XRLCEA). Conclusion. CT and roentgenographical measurement of acetabular parameters are comparable. Currently, a radiological LCEA greater than 25° is considered normal. This study demonstrates that those with hip pain and normal radiological acetabular parameters may still have deficiencies in FHC. More sophisticated imaging techniques such as 3D CT should be considered for those with hip pain to identify deficiencies in FHC. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):12–19

Aims. To identify the prevalence of neuropathic pain after lower limb fracture surgery, assess associations with pain severity, quality of life and disability, and determine baseline predictors of chronic neuropathic pain at three and at six months post-injury. Methods. Secondary analysis of a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial (Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma; WHiST) dataset including adults aged 16 years or over following surgery for lower limb major trauma. The trial recruited 1,547 participants from 24 trauma centres. Neuropathic pain was measured at three and six months using the Doleur Neuropathique Questionnaire (DN4); 701 participants provided a DN4 score at three months and 781 at six months. Overall, 933 participants provided DN4 for at least one time point. Physical disability (Disability Rating Index (DRI) 0 to 100) and health-related quality-of-life (EuroQol five-dimension five-level; EQ-5D-5L) were measured. Candidate predictors of neuropathic pain included sex, age, BMI, injury mechanism, concurrent injury, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, analgaesia use pre-injury, index surgery location, fixation type, Injury Severity Score, open injury, and wound care. Results. The median age of the participants was 51 years (interquartile range 35 to 64). At three and six months post-injury respectively, 32% (222/702) and 30% (234/787) had neuropathic pain, 56% (396/702) and 53% (413/787) had chronic pain without neuropathic characteristics, and the remainder were pain-free. Pain severity was higher among those with neuropathic pain. Linear regression analyses found that those with neuropathic pain at six months post-injury had more physical disability (DRI adjusted mean difference 11.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.84 to 15.14; p < 0.001) and poorer quality of life (EQ-5D utility -0.15 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.11); p < 0.001) compared to those without neuropathic characteristics. Logistic regression identified that prognostic factors of younger age, current smoker, below knee fracture, concurrent injuries, and regular analgaesia pre-injury were associated with higher odds of post-injury neuropathic pain. Conclusion. Pain with neuropathic characteristics is common after lower limb fracture surgery and persists to six months post-injury. Persistent neuropathic pain is associated with substantially poorer recovery. Further attention to identify neuropathic pain post-lower limb injury, predicting patients at risk, and targeting interventions, is indicated. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1047–1054

Objectives. Intramedullary fixation is considered the most stable treatment for pertrochanteric fractures of the proximal femur and cut-out is one of the most frequent mechanical complications. In order to determine the role of clinical variables and radiological parameters in predicting the risk of this complication, we analysed the data pertaining to a group of patients recruited over the course of six years. Methods. A total of 571 patients were included in this study, which analysed the incidence of cut-out in relation to several clinical variables: age; gender; the AO Foundation and Orthopaedic Trauma Association classification system (AO/OTA); type of nail; cervical-diaphyseal angle; surgical wait times; anti-osteoporotic medication; complete post-operative weight bearing; and radiological parameters (namely the lag-screw position with respect to the femoral head, the Cleveland system, the tip-apex distance (TAD), and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance (CalTAD)). Results. The incidence of cut-out across the sample was 5.6%, with a higher incidence in female patients. A significantly higher risk of this complication was correlated with lag-screw tip positioning in the upper part of the femoral head in the anteroposterior radiological view, posterior in the latero-lateral radiological view, and in the Cleveland peripheral zones. The tip-apex distance and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance were found to be highly significant predictors of the risk of cut-out at cut-offs of 30.7 mm and 37.3 mm, respectively, but the former appeared more reliable than the latter in predicting the occurrence of this complication. Conclusion. The tip-apex distance remains the most accurate predictor of cut-out, which is significantly greater above a cut-off of 30.7 mm. Cite this article: G. Caruso, M. Bonomo, G. Valpiani, G. Salvatori, A. Gildone, V. Lorusso, L. Massari. A six-year retrospective analysis of cut-out risk predictors in cephalomedullary nailing for pertrochanteric fractures: Can the tip-apex distance (TAD) still be considered the best parameter?. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:481–488. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2016-0299.R1

Aims. Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture. Patients and Methods. We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results. Results. The predictive power of mortality was poor for both the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices (concordance indices less than 0.7). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was superior to Elixhauser, and a model with age and gender was superior to both indices. Conclusion. Preoperative comorbidity from administrative data did not predict mortality for patients with a hip fracture treated by arthroplasty. This was true even if association on group level existed

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether it is possible to predict the mortality, and the extent and time of neurological recovery from the time of the onset of symptoms and MRI grade, in patients with the cerebral fat embolism syndrome (CFES). This has not previously been investigated. Methods. The study included 34 patients who were diagnosed with CFES following trauma between 2012 and 2018. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed and the severity graded by MRI. We investigated the rate of mortality, the time and extent of neurological recovery, the time between the injury and the onset of symptoms, the clinical severity of the condition, and the MRI grade. All patients were male with a mean age of 29.7 years (18 to 70). The mean follow-up was 4.15 years (2 to 8), with neurological recovery being assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Results. In all, seven who had early-onset CFES (< 24 hours), and a severe Takahashi grade on MRI, died. There was a significant association between the time of onset of neurological signs and mortality (p = 0.035). Mortality was also significantly associated with a severe Takahashi grade (p < 0.001). Among the 27 surviving patients, 26 (96.3%) recovered completely. One (3.7%) had a cognitive deficit. The mean time to recovery was 4.7 weeks (2 to 13), with late recovery aftereight eight weeks being recorded in three patients. Conclusion. There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in patients with CFES who had an early onset of symptoms and a severe grade on MRI. Complete neurological recovery can be expected in most patients with CFES who survive. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):142–149

Aims. To devise a method to quantify and optimize tightness when inserting cortical screws, based on bone characterization and screw geometry. Methods. Cortical human cadaveric diaphyseal tibiae screw holes (n = 20) underwent destructive testing to firstly establish the relationship between cortical thickness and experimental stripping torque (T. str. ), and secondly to calibrate an equation to predict T. str. Using the equation’s predictions, 3.5 mm screws were inserted (n = 66) to targeted torques representing 40% to 100% of T. str. , with recording of compression generated during tightening. Once the target torque had been achieved, immediate pullout testing was performed. Results. Cortical thickness predicted T. str. (R. 2. = 0.862; p < 0.001) as did an equation based on tensile yield stress, bone-screw friction coefficient, and screw geometries (R. 2. = 0.894; p < 0.001). Compression increased with screw tightness up to 80% of the maximum (R. 2. = 0.495; p < 0.001). Beyond 80%, further tightening generated no increase in compression. Pullout force did not change with variations in submaximal tightness beyond 40% of T. str. (R. 2. = 0.014; p = 0.175). Conclusion. Screw tightening between 70% and 80% of the predicted maximum generated optimum compression and pullout forces. Further tightening did not considerably increase compression, made no difference to pullout, and increased the risk of the screw holes being stripped. While further work is needed for development of intraoperative methods for accurate and reliable prediction of the maximum tightness for a screw, this work justifies insertion torque being considerably below the maximum. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):493–500

Aims. Recent improvements in surgical technique and perioperative blood management after total joint replacement (TJR) have decreased rates of transfusion. However, as many surgeons transition to outpatient TJR, obtaining routine postoperative blood tests becomes more challenging. Therefore, we sought to determine if a preoperative outpatient assessment tool that stratifies patients based on numerous medical comorbidities could predict who required postoperative haemoglobin (Hb) measurement. Methods. We performed a prospective study of consecutive unilateral primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) and total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed at a single institution. Prospectively collected data included preoperative and postoperative Hb levels, need for blood transfusion, length of hospital stay, and Outpatient Arthroplasty Risk Assessment (OARA) score. Results. A total of 504 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age at time of arthroplasty was 65.3 years (SD 10.2). Of the patients, 216 (42.9%) were THAs and 288 (57.1%) were TKAs. Six patients required a blood transfusion postoperatively (1.19%). Transfusion after surgery was associated with lower postoperative day 1 Hb (median of 8.5 (interquartile range (IQR) 7.9 to 8.6) vs 11.3 (IQR 10.4 to 12.2); p < 0.001), longer length of stay (1 day (IQR 1 to 1) vs 2 days (IQR 2 to 3); p < 0.001), higher OARA score (median of 60.0 (IQR 40 to 75) vs 5.0 (IQR 0-35); p = 0.001), and total hip arthroplasty (p < 0.001). All patients who received a transfusion had an OARA score > 34; however, this did not reach statistical significance as a screening threshold. Conclusion. Risk of blood transfusion after primary TJR was uncommon in our series, with an incidence of 1.19%. Transfusion was associated with OARA scores > 60. The OARA score, not American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, reliably identified patients at risk for postoperative blood transfusion. Selective Hb monitoring may result in substantial cost savings in the era of cost containment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):65–70

Aims. A borderline dysplastic hip can behave as either stable or unstable and this makes surgical decision making challenging. While an unstable hip may be best treated by acetabular reorientation, stable hips can be treated arthroscopically. Several imaging parameters can help to identify the appropriate treatment, including the Femoro-Epiphyseal Acetabular Roof (FEAR) index, measured on plain radiographs. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and the sensitivity of FEAR index on MRI compared with its radiological measurement. Patients and Methods. The technique of measuring the FEAR index on MRI was defined and its reliability validated. A retrospective study assessed three groups of 20 patients: an unstable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with lateral centre edge angle (LCEA) less than 25° treated successfully by periacetabular osteotomy; a stable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with LCEA less than 25° treated successfully by impingement surgery; and an asymptomatic control group with LCEA between 25° and 35°. The following measurements were performed on both standardized radiographs and on MRI: LCEA, acetabular index, femoral anteversion, and FEAR index. Results. The FEAR index showed excellent intraobserver and interobserver reliability on both MRI and radiographs. The FEAR index was more reliable on radiographs than on MRI. The FEAR index on MRI was lower in the stable borderline group (mean -4.2° (. sd. 9.1°)) compared with the unstable borderline group (mean 7.9° (. sd. 6.8°)). With a FEAR index cut-off value of 2°, 90% of patients were correctly identified as stable or unstable using the radiological FEAR index, compared with 82.5% using the FEAR index on MRI. The FEAR index was a better predictor of instability on plain radiographs than on MRI. Conclusion. The FEAR index measured on MRI is less reliable and less sensitive than the FEAR index measured on radiographs. The cut-off value of 2° for radiological FEAR index predicted hip stability with 90% probability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1578–1584